With no flat racing in the UK or Ireland, this Chantilly card holds plenty of interest. Although two things may turn things on their head; 1, - My ratings are what the best a horse has achieved this season, i.e. the fastest it has run. Therefore, the tactical nature that can happen in French races can make a mockery of the form book - Not that they are alone there ... take a look at our Oaks winner Dancing Rain. I give that a rating in the 80's it was so slow. That is Class 4 h'cap level! Anyway, that is one thing to bear in mind; The other is the weather. At the time of writing the heavy storm clouds appear to have missed Paris, so if it remain 'good' going, all is well. If it has gone soft, look elsewhere.
Chantilly 1.20 - 12f Group 1 : JEHANNEDARC.
This is an all French affair, most of whom have form with each other. They are stepping up tu the full 12f so it will be a question of who it suits the best. I select the above because stamina is not an issue on pedigree, but also because she finished well behind Goldikova, who ran a fast race over 11f on the same card as Por Moi had his Derby trial.
Nick Mordin wrote a piece suggesting Goldiva was 2l per mile(on all his 5 sectional markers) better than Pour Moi ... should they happen to meet in the 'Arc'. Boy does he like to waffle. It is quite obvious that if you compare the two finishing times, Goldikova ran the extra 0.5f in a little over 4secs. Impressive? Yes, but if you move both times up to 12f, 'Arc' distance, then you are talking about a 2sec difference(139.something, against 141.something), which is about 1.5 lengths. To compare an improving 3yo against a brilliant mare as Goldikova is high praise indeed? A lot can change between now and October??
That was a digression, but I think you may see why I think, that given a true run race, JEHANNEDARC has an excellent chance. Current Betfair price 7.8 ...
Chantilly 2.08 - 10.5f, Group 1(French 'Derby'): RODERICK O'CONNOR
I have him 2lbs clear of Casamento, but more importantly, from this season's rating. Add to that that the latter may have had a problem since the Guineas, he looks to be the best of the 'our' contingent. Stamina should not be a problem, but the tactics might. I cannot see Ryan Moore doing a 'Joseph O'Brien' in this race because of the extra distance?
Of the French ones, the TIN HORSE looks to have a great chance after winning their 2000gns in style. Lupe De Vega did the double last year, and he will be a big threat to ROC?
However, an outstanding EW shot has to be BUBBLE CHIC. He finished 2nd to Pour Moi, and bar that one, had the rest beaten, and would have finished in the RP standard time on soft ground. Had Vadamar behind, and he ran well enough to uphold the form, taking out the exceptional Por Moi. BUBBLE CHIC has been consistent without getting the breaks. However, I think the last run showed a big improvement, and the good going may bring out more.
Current Betfair price 18.0(from 21/1 last night?)
Chantilly 2.50 - 8f Group 2(fillies): PERFECT TRIBUTE
I think Clive Cox may be hoping this will be a tactical affair, why else would you try a filly out over 8f when she has been outstanding over 6f. Certainly has the class for this, but the home contingent look pretty strong to me. I make ESPERITA the biggest danger. she has got closest to Golden Lilac last time in a Group 1. That one would be one of their top 3yo fillies. MIXED INTENTION(fav) got closer the time before in a Group 3, and there are a couple of others who the French rate highly. So you can see that this Cox runner will have it to do in a true run race?
ESPIRITA's current Betfair price 6.4
Chantilly 3.25 - 12f, Group 2: POET
Now this one would like a cloudburst over this part of Paris. Excellent race last time, which gives a clear margin over ALLIED POWERS, and he had his form boosted by the run of St Nicholas Abbey. If it stays good the gap between them will close, and probably swing in the latter's favour. They should be better than the Fabre/Barzalona combination of LEY HUNTER. The return of BEHKABAD(fav) adds class to the race. The 'Arc' 4th behind Workforce, and 3rd to Dangerous Midge in America puts him rightly at the head of the market. However, he may be vulnerable first time out, and he too, would prefer it softer.
With the the going as stated, I would say ALLIED POWERS has a good EW chance.
Current Betfair price 16.5
Chantilly 4.00 - 5f, Group 2: PROHIBIT
I have this clear of INXILE and TOTAL GALLERY, and if the low draw is the place to be, then he has an excellent chance here. Has HAMISH MCGONAGALL drawn 3, INXILE drawn 1, both on his inside(PROHIBIT drawn 4), so pace should not be a problem. It could be nicely set up for his strong finishing burst. That is providing the French don't have their own race on the other side with SPLIT TROIS, who was a nostril behind INXILE last time, and old favourite
MARCHAND D'OR(who was taken out of that race). However, the bigger danger may come from another strong finisher, MAR ADENTO(drawn 6), they are the pair I would take to win, what will be, the 'bob of heads'. Current Betfair prices 8.0 and 11.5 respectively.
Well it is amazing what you can write when you do not fully understand what is going on ... just read Nick Mordin's piece in the 'Weekender'??
Have a good day.
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