Summary:
1st - POUR MOI - (I have just edited my spelling mistake ..throughout)
2nd - RECITAL
3rd - SEVILLE
4th - TREASURE BEACH
All subject to the 'With a run'
Well all of the above run, so has anything changed? On the whole, not really. The inclusion of VADAMAR who finished behind POUR MOI last time is noteworthy, The absence of Casamento, Roderic O'Connor, and Nathaniel come as no surprise.
Reviewing them in betting order:
CARLTON HOUSE: Winning the Dante did nothing to enhance it ratings, but it did show that he has speed over 4f. I have less doubts about him staying the 12f than some. Take a close look at his pedigree, and you will see that most of dams who were paired with Street Cry, their sires were an influence for speed. resulting in winners around the 7f-9f mark. However, when Danehill was the dam-sire the picture changes, with wins up to 16f. Danehill, like Bustino, can give a pedigree a much needed boost in the staying pedigree. Bustino is Carlton House's dam-sire, so there is every chance that he may be blessed with speed and stamina. Yet to prove that on the racecourse though.
POUR MOI: I have no rating for this one, he stepped into the number one slot by default. The ratings are so low with everything else, it seemed logical to take a close look at a Group 2 winner, in a fast time, and winning it well. I have reviewed that tape(of his last run at St Cloud) several times now, and it still looks impressive each time. The overall time was quick, it was a sound gallop throughout, and yet Pour Moi came from last to first over the final 2f with a smart turn of foot. To me, he looks the type that will suit Epsom, well proportioned and balanced. He has since done a spin on the track, and finished it off at speed. Straight as a die, no hint of leaning towards the rails. Stamina no problem. Draw no problem, given he only needs to be in mid division until they hit the home turn. Perfect?
Not quite. There was a hint that he did not take one of the early sharp turns at St Cloud all that well, and Clare Balding thought he did not come down the hill at Epsom all that well, albeit at non racing pace. Everything else makes him the one to beat, including the ownership decision to bring him over to challenge their other horses?
RECITAL: Doubts about this ones stamina may seem strange for a horse who won a Group 1 race over 10f, as a 2yo, in the 'heavy', by 5l?? His sire Montjeu is not the problem, it is the dam's side where stamina looks in short supply. Mind, a lot of that is the result of the dam-sire, Kendor being paired mares who's sires were not a stamina influence. Three generations back you can find some, but is that relevant today? The mare herself was an 18yo when mated to produce Recital, which I found more worrying?
That is the negative side. The positive comes from Keiren Fallon, whose opinion I value more than all the pundits put together, because of his experience and he rode the horse. When he was in the commentary box with John Francome and Jim McGrath and they started to discuss the Derby, Keiren said of Recital, 'he's the best they[Ballydoyle] have got'. To which the others said 'Really!!" The look on Keiren's face when he realised he might have said something he shouldn't have was obvious. In everything he has said about this horse, tells you this is a serious contender. In the race at Leopardstown he only cocked his head when he was in front, not during the race, just the bit when he thought he had done enough and had time to think about what was annoying him? He will be played very late this time.
SEVILLE: Highest 2yo rating, but well down on that at Chester in the race that did not suit. The stable have a problem here, because if they run a pacemaker to test the stamina of the field, they may also undo Recital too? It could be that this one may lack the tactical speed to get into a position to use his stamina? I think he will edge further down my list.
NATIVE KHAN: Whatever doubts about Recital regards stamina, this one has them doubled. They share the same dam-sire Kendor, but without the more stamina influence of Montjeu, because Azamour has a bias towards the 10f range. That said, he should run his race, even if he does not last to the line.
OCEAN WAR: If there is to be an upset, I suppose this is the most likely, but it would take a massive improvement oin his ratings thus far.
VADAMAR: This has very few doubts regards stamina. On the face of it, he looks to have little chance of reversing the form with Por Moi, but I took note of his progress in that race also. He started his run before Pour Moi, but had to weave through the traffic a bit, a factor that will certainly be useful at Epsom. He made similar ground up until about 1f out, when Por Moi swept by on the outside. The connections of Vadamar are hoping the extra distance will bring the two closer together. I think they will also hope that the going is no worse than good, as most of his runs have been on the soft side.
The revised order
1st - POUR MOI
2nd - RECITAL ... assuming the Appeal Court throws out this spiteful claim?
3rd - VADAMAR
4th - CARLTON HOUSE
It could be any 3 from 4, but if there is a clear cut winner, I expect it to be POUR MOI.
Have a good day
No comments:
Post a Comment