1, These are my thoughts put out on my blog ... if you do not agree with anything, fine.
Just don't get your hopes up that I will enter into a discussion with any comments left, because I am too busy.
2, I am only speculating on the future events. I have no inside information. I may well be proved wrong, I often am.
3, My observations will not change what happens, so do not blame me if you take it as fact, before the event.
Obeservation 1 - So You Think, is he a tad over-hyped? If you believe the stable promotion then he will be a sight to see on Wednesday.
I take the view that on his two runs so far he has not proved he is the same horse he was in Australia. Both race were run in very slow finishing times to make a mockery of any form. For a horse rated 126, too be generous, he has not had to be at his best. It is difficult to analyse the races in any clear way. He pulls away from the field with ease, yet the time is slow. If the others went off very quick then that might explain why the fade at the finish ... but as he has kept up the gallop the finishing time should be at least reasonable, if not damn quick?
If they went slow, how come they had no pace at the finish?
Come Wednesday he will find he will have to complete the race in a fast time, then we will see just how good he is. I want him to be good, he is in my Ten To Follow!
Moving on, but linked. I am not sure how many read a story on the RP site a week or so ago, about the dilemma that faces Coolmore with so many good horses chasing the same targets for reasons of their stud value. The article concluded that So You Think would be kept away from the other stars, leaving it the top 10f races; York International, Newmarket Champion stakes, etc.
This got me thinking about other horses who have a lot to lose if the miss out on their Group 1 targets, and how 'convenient' it would be if they were unable to run again?
Take last year as an example. Workforce would never have won the Arc if Harbinger had been fit. However, Harbinger retires with the King George demolition fresh in the memory, leaving Workforce free to pick up the Arc. I could have predicted something like that before it happened, although probably in reverse, with Workforce retiring with his record breaking Derby fresh in the mind. It is not the first time this has happened. A few years ago there was the big build up with Dubai Millennium meeting his strongest rival. it never happened?
If any of you are naive enough to think a little white lie about a horse's injury that is potentially worth millions, then think on - the difference between a beaten horse and an unbeaten one can make an enormous difference in their stud fees. That is where the money for these big owners make their profit. The racing is a necessary by-product.
Here is my list for this season's casualties;(odds reflecting their %age of running again after their next race)
5/4 WORKFORCE - Reason; unlikely to win the Arc as both the French and the Irish will be very strong there. Is avoiding So You think in favour of the Pretty Polly over 10f ...where does he go from there, win or lose?
5/1 So You Think - Reason - If he wins well on Wednesday, presumably it will be York next. The King George is awash with potential stallions making their claim. Await The Dawn, St Nicholas Abbey, Recital, Cape Blanco, Master of Hounds, and that is just from Ballydoyle. Reliable Man from from France, not to mention Rewilding and Snow Fairy. Some from the O'Brien lot will have to go another route, and that means the aforementioned 10f races. So my guess would be to put this one on hold, at the very least, until the others have had there chance.
10/1 CARLTON HOUSE - Reason - "Unlucky not to win the Derby" might be his best impression to leave? If he steps back into the minefield of the 10f races he will meet some tough opposition from the older brigade, and the same story if he has a crack at Group 1's over 12f. If he sticks to 3yo races it might open up a bigger weakness and be devalued even more?
There will be some not mentioned here that could be put in a similar category, but the three above have the most to lose at the moment. Of course, if they do lose their next races, they may have to run again ... unless they detect a heart murmur ...
Finally, how this for an outrageous suggestion: Wayne Rooney to be sold before the start of the next football season? - Reason; they paid him trillions of dosh to get him to sign a new contract, because without him they would not win the league. That done, why would they continue to pay that kind of money per week, when they can get someone for half the wages, who will score goals through the whole season, won't get himself banned before important games, nor argue the toss with the manager .... You do recall Ferguson tell him to stay upfield, and when Rooney argued, it was easy to lip-read Ferguson's reply "I'm the manager, just do it!!"
Ferguson is quite ruthless when he is crossed. Mind, I think it was the plan to ditch him the moment he signed the contract. I bet the stupid boy even had a release clause written in to the contract .. that will work both ways?
Clearly nothing will happen until they get their replacement, probably one of these targets Man City are after, just to give Fergie something else to smile about?
Oh, don't think you'll get rich having a bet now ....
What odds would you have thought about right for his exit? 100/1, 200/1
... sorry when I checked, 25/1?????
Thank you for reading, enjoy you day?
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