ASCOT - Thursday

Somewhat shorter look at the Gold Cup as the weather could throw a big spanner in the works? In fact the whole day may be a bookies benefit!

Ascot 3.45:(in bettinng order)

FAME AND GLORY - Has the class, but probably not the stamina.

DUNCAN - Has speed over 16f and below, but the extra 4f will stretch this front runner?

HOLBERG - Another not tried aver this trip, looks a bit one-paced against true stayers?

MANIGHAR - Has to reverse form with the above, stay the extra 4f, but will appreciate rain.

BRIGANTIN - In form over 16f, this is a stiffer track than Longchamp?

Having dismissed the first 5 in the betting, here are the ones I consider having a chance at decent odds. In race card order, as it is not easy to split them at this distance?

BLUE BAJAN - Clear winner over 16f at Sandown, similar stiff track. Was still keeping on behind Overturn at Chester over the extended 18f, a race where the winner broke the course record. Age not a barrier at this distance.

Current odds (Betfair) 16/1

KASBAH BLISS - Well beaten in this on good to firm going, but later form on softer gives this 9yo every chance, especially if the weather turns nasty. Finished off last season 'staying on' behind Gentoo at this trip. Beat that horse over shorter early this year, and just ahead of BRIGANTIN last time over 16f.

Current odds (Betfair) 21/1

TASTAHIL - Another well beaten in this last year. However his last two runs could give him a great chance this time. Winner over 16f at Newmarket on good to soft on final start last year. Ran Overturn closest of all at Chester, on faster ground than ideal ahead of BLUE BAJAN. Clearly trained with this race in mind, and looks like getting the ground of choice. This is not Chester, but has got reasonable form here over shorter.

Current odds (Betfair) 22/1

Conclusion: If it came up really soft I would favour KASBAH BLISS.

Ascot 2.30: EVERYDAY DAVE

Clearly not a choice on ratings, but this American challenger has won twice on softish ground, and their 2yo's are usually pretty smart. PYMAN'S THEORY is best of the rest.

Ascot 3.05: BANIMPIRE

This is clear on the rating behind Misty For Me, and has gone on to win well after.

Ascot 4.25: COMMON TOUCH

Improving with every race, but has got to contend with an extra furlong at a stiffer track? Real chance of an upset here. CROWN COUNSEL and CHILWORTH LAD have decent ratings, but an upset is on the cards?

Ascot 5.00: LAAJOOJ

Only just top-rated, but comes here in good form. Always looks to me that he could do with 'filling out'? TAZAHUM is next best and could pose a real threat to all. SLIM SHADEY represents the 2000gns form and has a chance against these of a lower grade? It has got to recover from hi Derby run.

Ascot 5.35: BROWN PANTHER

Twice a winner at the trip and is the one to beat.

Not very enthusiastic about today because of the uncertainty over the weather ... it will rain, but how much? It does not make the 'Fancy 5' any easier either, as some jammy git 'in the know' will get a 33/1 shot come good ... Hey ho

Have a good day ...