Once again doing this ahead of the 48 hour decs, partly because any defections will shorten the price of the others, and no Rule 4 with antepost bets.
Yesterday I wrote of the complexities of working out what is good and what isn't, especially when it involves the favourite. Visually he looked impressive, but beneath that you have a slowly run race that clearly suited the winner that day ... but how many behind ran to their best ...??
Today we have no such problem. The favourite is there on merit. He re they are in my ratings order:
MAYBE - 5/2(tads more, but it may well shorten by the time I finish this?)
Just top-rated, but a model of consistency. Five wins from five runs speaks for itself. With each step up in grade she continued to improve her ratings. From a Listed win at Royal Ascot through to her Group 1 success in the Moyglare at the Curragh. However, that was in August ... four wins in just over two months is pretty impressive, but it raises the question as to why her first season ended so early? Perhaps it was the case that they were not sure how good she was until the 'Moyglare', although she was odds on in that. But, by which time she was in need of a break.
The other doubt is that apart from her maiden, all runs were over 7f. Again that might be another consequence of her early finish. Her breeding should dismiss any stamina doubts, therefore her only 'weakness' is that she has been off the track for a long time?
I alluded to this next point yesterday, regarding the top rated, and that is because they finish their two year old season on a high mark, they have to develop into a three year old being capable of picking where they left off .... without the luxury of having several races build up to that mark. They have to be pretty special to do that, so this could the main reason for not taking the very short price. Like Camelot, Maybe could be special, and unlike the former, she is not over-rated in the first place!
DISCOURSE - 8/1
More lightly raced than the above, but also ended the season in August. Her rating comes from her slamming a useful field over the July course. If there are to be any defections overnight, then this may be among them, because she has all the doubts expressed above, and then some. The pedigree suggests fast ground as a preference? Stamina should not be a problem if she settles. However, for all that she has got one thing going for her ... an impressive performance backed up by an impressive time. Whether she will repeat that under the conditions on Sunday is another matter? It might just dry up enough for her to take her chance though.
The next group are a little way behind, but have a live chance should the doubts surface with the above two. they are:
LA COLLINA - 24/1
Twice behind MAYBE, but got close on the first occasion. Arguably her best run was in the 'Moyglare', and so is another who has not race since August, but I like her shock win the time before. That was over 6f where she took on the colts ... Not just ant colt mind, Power, Tough As Nails, Lilbourne Lad, Reply, Frederick Engels, and even Parish Hall were behind her. Three weeks later she tries 7f and probably did not see it out? Stamina should not be problem though, being out of a Galileo mare? If she has now grown into her full frame, and fit and ready to do herself justice, she has a turn of foot that makes her a serious contender.
LYRIC OF LIGHT - 10.5/1
Best of the end of season performers, and a dual 8f winner to boot. She beat a promising field in the Group 1 'Shadwell Fillies Mile' over C&D. If any horse is likely to do the 1000 Guineas/Oaks double it is probably her. If there is a doubt it will concern the going, as it was on the fast side at Newmarket that day?
LIGHTENING PEARL - 47/1
Another to have met, and lost to MAYBE over 7f, but has twice been successful over 6f since. The latest of those in the 'Cheveley Park' gives her a healthy rating, but stamina must be a doubt? Another will be the possibility of soft ground, which she has yet to race on.
MASHOORA - 8/1
This is a very tenuous estimated rating,but similar to the above. She has started campaign off with a win in the Group 1 Prix Impudence over the 'short' 7f, but finished 2011 off with a 2nd over a mile. She must be pretty highly thought of to start off in a Group 3, and in 3 starts she has neither lost or won by very far. By no means an instant dismissal from calculations, and the bookies are taking no chances with their offered odds? Barathea out of a Spinning World mare, stamina should not be a problem ... one for the shortlist I think?
Just below that quartet you have: Fire
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