The early season form has got completely messed about partly because of the weather, and partly because the late Easter that has compressed the season. I cannot remember the Irish Guineas being run the week before the Epsom Derby, which is now only two and a half week away from Royal Ascot?
So starting to unravel the 1000gns and Oaks is difficult because it is a minefield.
Irish 1000gns at the Curragh:
They watered the course pretty well, as the going allowance indicating it was nearer good, from the good to firm the day before.
Samitar won, and won it well. Improved her rating, and with better ground could go on to be quite useful.
Ishvana 2nd, and again, improved her rating. She was produced from midfield and appeared to stay on without ever looking like the winner.
Princess Sinead came from the rear. She made up the trio of complete outsiders to fill the places. All sound Group/Listed race types, but were not expected to win on form?
Of the backed horses, Yellow Rosebud was the most disappointing, finishing just ahead of the handicapper, Janey Muddles, last and last but one.
La Collina has a slight excuse in that she kept the pacemaker honest, and faded from 2f out. Perhaps she doesn't truly stay, or she needs to come from the rear rather than race close up.
After, another O'Brien horse, passed the above late on, but again, hardly a startling performance?
Which leaves the conclusion to be made about the hot favourite, Homecoming Queen.
Any suggestion that this is her bubble burst could not be further than the truth. She set a fast pace which enabled the winning time to be easily the fastest time(relatively) of the day. The problem for was always going to be on faster ground, she would have to go faster than she would like because the field could keep up better. I venture to say, had Ryan Moore ridden her, she would have been a lot closer, if not winning. He won it at Newmarket so easily by tactically using her speed at he right times. On fast ground, she needed to keep enough back to repel the fast finishers.
If you want to take a horse from the meeting, keep an eye out for the 2yo winner of the first: LINES OF BATTLE. She produce an excellent time for a 2yo at this stage of the season. O'Brien trains.
The Oaks:
Forget Newmarket's 1000gns as a form guide.
MAYBE is obvious place to start. She needs to show a similar level of form to last season if she is to win this? Some doubts about the trip. In a race where 7/1 the field is a better reflection of the open nature of the race, she is poor value, but not to say she cannot win.
THE FUGUE - She won nicely at York, but not in a great time. If the second is inferior to the above, then it puts the top two in the market close together. She should stay.
VOW - Won the Trial race at Lingfield like a good horse, but that was not on turf. Her big doubt is whether this race is coming too soon, having not raced at two. Epsom, with all the razzamataz that goes with it, so will be a real test for her, as will the contours of the course. Potentially the best horse ... but after this race is just a part of her learning curve.
KISSED - She impressed many with her win at Navan, although those behind have been beaten since. Her big doubt is the going. It will be quick today, and a downhill track on unsuitable ground does seriously raise the question as to whether she will show her true form.
KAILANA - She won well at Newmarket, and in a good time. Stamina no problem, and with the Godolphin horses beginning to shine, she is the first to come into the race with no blemishes ... if she is good enough? That is the question, as placed horse that have run since finished behind THE FUGUE and SHIROCCO STAR respectively. It puts her close on form, so it may come down to who has improved the most in the meantime.
SHIROCCO STAR - She just failed to win her race prep at Newbury on softish ground, and will do better at the trip and faster going. Despite the time of her run being okay, the form was somewhat let down by the 4th failed to win a maiden race at Windsor. The 2nd was also 2nd in the 1000gns and ran to that level ... whatever that level is???
So there you have the front rank. Full of 'if's, buts, and maybe's' ... hence my 7/1 the field. Anyone could win, but which one. Or possibly one of the real outsiders ...
COLIMA - beaten by VOW
BETTERBETTERBETTER - An O'Brien 'sighter' at Chester, got beaten by a horse that was later thrashed by THE FUGUE
COQUET - No chance on ratings ... well, has 15lbs to find to be in with a shout. However, as an EW shot, not a forlorn hope. She has done nothing but improve. Her Goodwood race was not run in a way that she could impress, but she seems to do just enough. The course should not be a problem. The extra 2.5f is a real plus, along with the going. Apparently she shows little at home, but to me, in a year where there are much of a muchness, I think she has the the ideal profile to spring a surprise ... or is that just my antepost voucher speaking?
DEVOTION was beaten by Yellow Rosebud, who flopped in the Irish 1000gns.
The remainder have mostly been beaten by one or another above, except TOPTEMPO who failed to win a maiden race at this trip last time.
Conclusion ... ???
Best value of the 'likelies' - KAILANA @ 10/1
Best each way - COQUET @ 27/1
No comments:
Post a Comment