CURRAGH - Irish 1000 Guineas

Today's big race looks all set up for a repeat performance  of the Newmarket 1000gns? So ask yourself, why is the favouritie not odds-on?

3.40 CURRAGH :

HOMECOMING QUEEN - A dramatic win last time, and given she has beaten most of this field before, what is to stop her wrapping up this one as well. A quick look at her form line shows that she has done nothing but improve sine last August. It also so shows, strangely, as it is Ireland we are talking about, that she had not raced on soft ground until August! And there hangs the doubt.
I said in my preview blog of the Oaks that it would be harder to repeat her win on faster ground. The reason for that, even if she handles fast ground equally well, horses behind who may be didn't like the soft, will find it easier to keep tabs on her. The problem punters are faced with today is whether she has just improved despite the underfoot conditions, or is her early 2yo runs on good to firm indicating she is not as quick relative to the others?
YELLOW ROSEBUD - Most definitely a serious threat after beating the one horse that blemished the above's run last season, Coral Waves. Perhaps that also preferred soft ground, but it was soft at Leopardstown. On breeding you would think this filly would be better on fast ground? She will also improve for that run. Trip no problem. However, she was beaten over 7f here last season, by Maybe, who was 3rd to Homecoming Queen at Newmarket.
LA COLLINA - My selection at Newmarket where she finished a staying-on 5th. Reverse of the favourite's profile, as she had not run on soft ground before, so I think her run shows much more promise for this one?
She will improve for the run. Will like the fast ground. Her win against the colts last season shows she it tough and classy.

Conclusion:
I will be amazed if the winner does not come from the first three in the betting. Yesterday I stuck with my previous selection in the follow up Classic for the colts, and I am not deserting LA COLLINA now.
Tactics will play a big part, and I am hoping that one of the outsiders, like Princess Sinead will keep the field closer to the leader, so the hold up types can go with her when she tries to kick on. If HOMECOMING QUEEN can act on the ground equally well then she will win. The other two most certainly can, and will both be nearer their peak having had a run. Which is why I think it will be a one-two of non-O'Brien horses battling it out.

It is not that I am anti-O'Brien, but that stable do tend to provide favourites in races, so where there is a doubt it means others are better value.
Earlier at the Curragh we have another odds-on O'Brien favourite in SO YOU THINK. Now here is a horse with few chinks. His style of running is relentless rather than flashy. If the early pace over 3f is good, he will pick it up from there, not necessarily leading, but just making sure the others do not have a breather and produce a turn of foot to beat him ... in the way that the ill-fated Rewilding did at Ascot. Or indeed, as Cirrus Des Aigles did at the same course later last season, Is there such a horse in this field? Mmmm?

May be not as good as CIRRUS DES AIGLES, who, until Frankel proves otherwise, it the best 10f around(and will add to that view at Longchamp today?). However, on that same Champions Day card at Ascot, Dancing Rain put up a great time in the 12f race, and got top figures to match. BIBLE BELT was 2nd, and if there is a horse that could upset the favourite, then she must be the one.
Things in her favour. She is now a 4yo and so should improve. So You Think is a 6yo and is unlikely to be better than last season. he has 10lbs to find on my figures, and she gets 3lbs sex allowance. Therefore, 7lbs to be gained from maturing into a 4yo? Not impossible. Also, the favourite disappointed at Meydan in March, and many horses struggle to come back from there on their first run back.
Against, Bible belt has not had a run. But at 1/4, I think So You Think has it all to do?

Have a good day.
p.s. I'm not sure if the ground was a problem for Hermival, but 10f will give him more time to bring his stamina into play. He did get a slight bump as he moved out, but it only cost him a length or so. Power shows just how a muddling race that Guineas was, Shame Parish Hall couldn't take part.