I am not going to add much to my preview on Thursday. Very little has changed ... the ground looks like drying out a little, and we now have the draw.
As has been the trend recently, I expect them to race down the middle to start with, unless the O'Brien camp, after doing their usual thorough walk of the course and decide the far side is quicker, and they make a dash for the far rail. They have both POWER and CAMELOT drawn high, and I guess TRUMPET MAJOR will follow them? The low numbers will drift to the stands rail before the bushes, and if they stay in one group, the trio above will be on the wide outside. Out of trouble and a clear run, yes, but wide open space for the inexperienced CAMELOT to face, also yes.
My considered view is that he will have to be the super horse people think he is, but at his current price, too many doubts, so worth taking on. My biggest doubt is whether his breeding is leading everybody in the wrong direction? Remember Delegator? It took the a long time before they realised he was a sprinter. In fact 7f may be his optimum trip this season, and Camelot could well be the same?
Go back to his last win. A race which top staying juveniles aim for. It is run in an overall slow time - one of the relatively slowest of the day, mind - and that means the early pace was lacking, or the whole field apart from Camelot are pretty poor to run that slow at the end. Far better to take the view that this horse has a good cruising speed and a great deal of speed when conditions are right, ie, steady for 3 may be 4f, quickening up into a sprint finish. Those behind, at that stage of their lives just could not deal with it. They would have liked a strong pace where the stamina, not speed, kicked in over the final furlong .... Similar to how today's race will be run I suspect? As for his 'home work' ... Well they will not be testing him over the full distance will they? Nor at full speed, so he will always make the likes of Power look slow?? That then, is the case for the opposition
There will be no Frankel type dash this time. May be POWER will be the one to 'control' the pace early on in order to replicate the Doncaster conditions, but as both of them are drawn high, they will find it difficult to hold those nearest the stands rail. Their best chance might be to go to the far rail and have their own race over there? That way they have the excuse that 'their side' were not able to get into the race, and providing Camelot beats Trumpet Major, it may stem the flow of 'bubble bursting' that will generally follow a defeat.
Don't get me wrong. I would love to see another super star, I just do not see enough evidence to say that Camelot is that, prior to this race where he can prove me wrong.
My choice was, if sloppy, HERMIVAL would be the one. I still think he is the best value at around 20/1, but it may be close with ABTAAL as the ground dries out.. Having just checked the latest going, the far side is the marginally faster, but still on the slow side. I will stick with HERMIVAL as he is ideally drawn next to ABTAAL so may outstay him as they come out of the dip. Why I prefer the French horses, is that they have had a run - albeit, a 3f sprint in a 7f race, but last season ABTAAL had been a solid performer over 8f, and had beaten FRENCH FIFTEEN comfortably before, who is also drawn wide with CAMELOT. Rockinante was 4th last month to this trio, and he too would have been unsuited to the way that race was run, and yet, a similar staying profile of HERMIVAL was able to come from the rear and go with the front pair, when Rockinante could not. That tells me that this horse settles, has speed, will like the stiffer course and the extra furlong. Given that I rate Rockinante higher than Camelot, you can see why I think it could be a French one-two?
Conclusion: Two groups.
LOW HIGH
1st - HERMIVAL 1st - TRUMPET MAJOR
2nd - ABTAAL 2nd - FRENCH FIFTEEN
3rd - CASPAR NETSCHER 3rd - POWER
Lots of racing aside from the Guineas though. My a handicap selection is in:
Newmarket 4.20: SANS LOI
He finished just behind ES QUE LOVE first time out, but is now a lot better off thanks to that one being penalised again for another win. Sad truth is that horses get over-rated on official figures at this time of year, and now we are in May, those over high figures will begin to tell as better, fitter horses emerge.I really like Es Que, but his current mark is going to hang around him for some time now... unless he improves again of course? Whereas, SAN LOI was not put up so much, bettered his previous best(drawn high if they do go that side), and should come on for the run. Still on a winning mark, and at 9/1 is worth a small punt against anything else improving from last year?
Have a good day ...
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