While there is a mini lull in the number of races, I thought I would pass on my observation on races gone by.
First an outline as to why my view may not always agree with the official view.
I judge races by time, and rate accordingly. More precisely, I begin with the Official Handicap mark, and it gets a plus or a minus on that figure, depending it has gone better or slower than its rating might suggest. Unlike ordinary 'speed' handicapping, the winner does not dictate the rating of those behind. Each horse is subject to the same evaluation. For example, if Horse A and Horse B dead heat, and say A was handicapped with a rating 10lbs lower than B, what normally happens with form analysis is either a placed horse is deemed the pivot to which others are rated from, both in front and behind. However, with two winners on differing marks it can be hard to make the correct call. Even worse with speed only figures. In alphabetical order, those behind would be 10lbs (or points lower where 1lb=1point), or 10lbs higher from the other. I have no such problem. Both winners get a rating appropriate to their own mark, as does the 3rd, 4th, etc.
That then is the method.
Starting with : 2000 Guineas.
It has a lot of anomalies but what is clear, against my standard times, this was not the fastest race on the card, relative per furlong to the other races. The sectional times were put up showing that they went steady early on, had a quick burst after halfway, which dropped off slightly for the final section. Therefore it was a pretty standard true run race? The first anomaly occurs over the quick section, where Boomerang Bob, a 40/1(opened at 100/1) outsider clocked the quickest sectional(furlong?). That was 3 furlongs out, and eventually finish 13th. Perhaps he is a sprinter? He was on the same side as Camelot. Those drawn on the far side finished 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th, where the going was presumed slightly quicker. Camelot came with a steady run from a long way back, and apart from French Fifteen, nothing was going quicker than him after coming out of the dip.
With the overall time slow(than it should be for a horse of his class), and it looked more workmanlike than classy to me. I prefaced my Guineas preview by saying horses are not always at their best when they win. That may well be the case here?
My ratings for this race were CAMELOT - 115, minus 4lbs, FRENCH FIFTEEN - 112, HERMIVAL - 108, TRUMPET MAJOR 108, and COUP DE VILLE 103. Not a high scoring 2000gns by any means.
Camelot won on merit, and will do better as the year progresses on better ground. Hermival(my sel) might have done better if he had something to race with over the final 2f, but Trumpet Major did not improve on his rating on similar going. Coup De Ville had a perfect race on the far side, as he sat behind the other 4 over there until the closing stages, and so belied his odds of 66/1 and finished less than 4 lengths off the winner. For a horse rated in the low 100's, that is a fair effort, but confirms the low rating of Camelot?
1000 Guineas:
This was run in an entirely different manner. Fast early on, slow at the finish. But that only tells half the story. It may have been Frankel-esque at the finish, but if this race was re-staged at any point in the future I don't think it would turn out the same. First of all, let me say Homing Queen won the race fair and square. It was very slightly the quickest race of the day, but given the overall class of the winners were down from the Saturday, the conditions allowance suggested it was only marginally quicker ground.
Homecoming Queen destroyed this as a contest with two decisive moves. The first was taking up the running in an aggressive manner at the end of the first furlong. I think most jockeys must have thought she was going too quick after they tried to stay with her, and so she kept a healthy gap before the next surge of pace. Again, the timing of it may have caught them out a second time, because rather than wait until the run into the dip for a final effort, Ryan Moore move up a gear about 3.5f out. This caught the field flat footed, and she gained an easy 5 lengths extra, and they had to press from much further out. Full marks to Homecoming Queen, she was able to maintain enough speed over that slow final furlong that the result was never in doubt.
Ratingwise, she did better than her male counterparts in so far as she added to her rating, but as explained earlier, she was coming off a lower base.
HOMECOMING QUEEN - 111, plus 6, STARSCOPE - 99, plus 1 despite being a long way back. MAYBE - 112, minus 4(This is where the perversity of the method looks all wrong, where the beaten horse can still rate higher at level weights. But against her own mark she is minus 4). THE FUGUE was also minus 4 on 111(estimated). Meanwhile, back in 8th, LAUGH OUT LOUD only matched her rating of 96. Which brings me neatly on to the OAKS Trials. But as far as the above race being FRANKEL-esque, well may be in appearance. In his 2000gns, he went 6f pace for the whole of the first 6f. But note how later in the year the pursuers got a wee bit closer. My confident selection, Mashoora, was completely undone in the first two furlongs. Probably stuck in the French type race mode, where they tend to go slow early, she was nicely placed on the far rail, but when the winner swept by she went from 2nd to 2nd last in no time at all. She struggled to go that pace, and despite getting back into the group, the earlier effort destroyed her. Homecoming Queen is no Frankel, and she will find it much harder to dominate with faster ground, which will suit those with a much higher cruising speed, and can gain ground easier on a quick surface? That said, she has not stopped improving since last July, and could easily add the Irish 1000 if underfoot conditions permit, and before the others get fully fit?
Oaks trials - York's Musidora Stakes:
This saw a quick appearance of THE FUGUE. She duly won impressively, but alas, the time was quite slow, so modest figures follow. Twirl was made favourite on the strength of a soft ground 2nd, Such a comprehensive beating of one of the O'Brien 'sighters' must be more worrying for them after a double Guineas success? Good Morning Star put paid to another at Chester, and finished stone last here? There was a lot to like about this victory, but you have to hope a truer run 12f at Epsom will produce better figures from her, because not improving on this low mark will be her undoing.
Newbury's Swettenham Stud Stakes.
33/1 Momentary added 5lbs to her low rating by just beating Shirocco Star, who also gained 5. Back in 3rd was 1000gns 2nd, Starscope, she only managed to match her unchanged rating of 98
York Michael Sobell Stakes
This brought Laugh Out Loud to the fore, improving her rating. This was over 8f, so not a real Oaks test?
So between these three races, The Fugue looks the better, but from an estimated rating. Laugh Out Loud and Starscope mid way between, and Momentary and Shirocco Star as the least likely?
My guess will be that something else might pop up on the day itself, or perhaps a convincing performance at Goodwood, in the race that Snow Fairy won, or even in the Irish 1000 could do it. Somewhere, there has to be one capable of rattling in 112 plus, as I am not yet convinced that MAYBE is a better horse than last year.
Derby Trials. Oh boy, if you thought it was confusing for the girls, the boys race is even more upside down? My feeling is, for both these Classics is that the weather has put these horses back a month, and they only have 10 days to put it right. It really will come down to who is going to be best on the day, which may not be the best at the end of the season. A brief review:
BONFIRE looked the part on his delayed return. Sure to improve, but needs to if he wants a decent mark in the big one.
CAMELOT did nothing wrong in winning his 'trial', and has the best rating to date. He should be better on quicker ground, and on breeding his stamina should be another boost. Like Maybe, I wonder if he is as good as he looked as a 2yo? Potentially the one to beat.
MICKDAAM won over the distance at Chester, and was a decent effort in the circumstances. Not dismissed from a place, and could improve a bit more?
RUGGED CROSS seems popular after his reappearance, but time not that great, so has a lot to do on ratings.
PARISH HALL has been waiting for better ground and has an opportunity to stake a claim win a convincing win in the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday? But with the Derby only a week on, it would have to be something special?
There are a host of others who could create a shock, including the Ballydoyle lesser lights, ASTROLOGY and FATHER OF SCIENCE, but I would be surprised if the winner did not come from the above, and most likely the top two.
No comments:
Post a Comment