An early post for a change ... I awoke earlier this morning so I have had a chance to look at some of the many interesting races. But let's kick off with the:
3.40 NEWBURY: The LOCKINGE STAKES
Yes another FRANKEL v EXCELEBRATION race, and it is no means a walkover for the former, despite the odds suggesting it might be? I think this will be FRANKEL's toughest race he'll face this year.
Remember they kicked off together last year, and the mighty one had 4 lengths to spare. They appeared to have matched their respective improvements right to the end of the season. The big difference this time is that EXCELEBRATION has already got a Group 3 race under his belt. He did not have to be on top form to win that, whereas Frankel will have to be pretty near his top game to win today.
I have been stressing a lot how difficult it is for horses who finish on a high mark, having had all season long to achieve that, to then come out and pick up at that level first time out. On the plus side, Frankel always gave the impression that once he 'grew up' he would be an even better horse this year .... Now there is a thought worth lingering over?
Much will depend on how he has matured over the winter. If he settles better and uses his speed where it counts then, other than Black Caviar, I do not think there will be a horse to match him over whatever distance he tries. Today though, he may be a bit fresh, pull hard, not settle, go off too quick for his current fitness level to last home ... A combination of any of those could be his downfall, and Ballydoyle would love to have the only horse to beat him?
Elsewhere ...
2.55 THIRSK : 6f
BARNEY MCGREW looks to have a few lbs in hand. Drawn high, near the current fav, PEARL ICE. That has got a lot to do to kick off at this level, but it has been well backed(from a stable who like the odd tilt?). Old BG has shown some useful ability last year, but whether this will be his day is another matter. It pays to be one side or the other at Thirsk, and there are some quick runners on the low side, and MON BRAV is a C/D winner and may be the best of them.
THIRSK 4.05: 5f
SINGUER is also a C/D winner and looks like going off favourite. He did not get a great rating for that win, so I would oppose him at the odds. The main pace seems to be drawn low, with TAX FREE and FOXY MUSIC both there, and LUI REI may benefit from that. He has improved a lot, but it just depends whether the dryer ground is a factor? On the far side, MAGICAL MACEY makes a quick reappearance from York on Thursday, and if he gets any pace on the high side he will have a great chance.
1.40 NEWMARKET: 7f
CAPE ROCK is an interesting runner, if only because he has been backed, despite any recent evidence of any form? Readily opposed by me, which leaves it open for something at a bigger price to come in?
My fancy, SNOW TROOPER is drifting in the betting, despite being well in on best form, so I would give expect it will be GREAT EXPECTATIONS to live up to his name?
2.45 NEWMARKET: 6f
If the race down the middle the draw will not matter so much, but just in case I will put up one from each side as positives. HEERAT on the high side, and one his jockey will know all about, PEA SHOOTER on the far side.
Well my time is up, have a good day ...
p.s. I hope to review the Guineas and Derby trials tomorrow ... All is not as it seems???
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