The early season form has got completely messed about partly because of the weather, and partly because the late Easter that has compressed the season. I cannot remember the Irish Guineas being run the week before the Epsom Derby, which is now only two and a half week away from Royal Ascot?
So starting to unravel the 1000gns and Oaks is difficult because it is a minefield.
Irish 1000gns at the Curragh:
They watered the course pretty well, as the going allowance indicating it was nearer good, from the good to firm the day before.
Samitar won, and won it well. Improved her rating, and with better ground could go on to be quite useful.
Ishvana 2nd, and again, improved her rating. She was produced from midfield and appeared to stay on without ever looking like the winner.
Princess Sinead came from the rear. She made up the trio of complete outsiders to fill the places. All sound Group/Listed race types, but were not expected to win on form?
Of the backed horses, Yellow Rosebud was the most disappointing, finishing just ahead of the handicapper, Janey Muddles, last and last but one.
La Collina has a slight excuse in that she kept the pacemaker honest, and faded from 2f out. Perhaps she doesn't truly stay, or she needs to come from the rear rather than race close up.
After, another O'Brien horse, passed the above late on, but again, hardly a startling performance?
Which leaves the conclusion to be made about the hot favourite, Homecoming Queen.
Any suggestion that this is her bubble burst could not be further than the truth. She set a fast pace which enabled the winning time to be easily the fastest time(relatively) of the day. The problem for was always going to be on faster ground, she would have to go faster than she would like because the field could keep up better. I venture to say, had Ryan Moore ridden her, she would have been a lot closer, if not winning. He won it at Newmarket so easily by tactically using her speed at he right times. On fast ground, she needed to keep enough back to repel the fast finishers.
If you want to take a horse from the meeting, keep an eye out for the 2yo winner of the first: LINES OF BATTLE. She produce an excellent time for a 2yo at this stage of the season. O'Brien trains.
The Oaks:
Forget Newmarket's 1000gns as a form guide.
MAYBE is obvious place to start. She needs to show a similar level of form to last season if she is to win this? Some doubts about the trip. In a race where 7/1 the field is a better reflection of the open nature of the race, she is poor value, but not to say she cannot win.
THE FUGUE - She won nicely at York, but not in a great time. If the second is inferior to the above, then it puts the top two in the market close together. She should stay.
VOW - Won the Trial race at Lingfield like a good horse, but that was not on turf. Her big doubt is whether this race is coming too soon, having not raced at two. Epsom, with all the razzamataz that goes with it, so will be a real test for her, as will the contours of the course. Potentially the best horse ... but after this race is just a part of her learning curve.
KISSED - She impressed many with her win at Navan, although those behind have been beaten since. Her big doubt is the going. It will be quick today, and a downhill track on unsuitable ground does seriously raise the question as to whether she will show her true form.
KAILANA - She won well at Newmarket, and in a good time. Stamina no problem, and with the Godolphin horses beginning to shine, she is the first to come into the race with no blemishes ... if she is good enough? That is the question, as placed horse that have run since finished behind THE FUGUE and SHIROCCO STAR respectively. It puts her close on form, so it may come down to who has improved the most in the meantime.
SHIROCCO STAR - She just failed to win her race prep at Newbury on softish ground, and will do better at the trip and faster going. Despite the time of her run being okay, the form was somewhat let down by the 4th failed to win a maiden race at Windsor. The 2nd was also 2nd in the 1000gns and ran to that level ... whatever that level is???
So there you have the front rank. Full of 'if's, buts, and maybe's' ... hence my 7/1 the field. Anyone could win, but which one. Or possibly one of the real outsiders ...
COLIMA - beaten by VOW
BETTERBETTERBETTER - An O'Brien 'sighter' at Chester, got beaten by a horse that was later thrashed by THE FUGUE
COQUET - No chance on ratings ... well, has 15lbs to find to be in with a shout. However, as an EW shot, not a forlorn hope. She has done nothing but improve. Her Goodwood race was not run in a way that she could impress, but she seems to do just enough. The course should not be a problem. The extra 2.5f is a real plus, along with the going. Apparently she shows little at home, but to me, in a year where there are much of a muchness, I think she has the the ideal profile to spring a surprise ... or is that just my antepost voucher speaking?
DEVOTION was beaten by Yellow Rosebud, who flopped in the Irish 1000gns.
The remainder have mostly been beaten by one or another above, except TOPTEMPO who failed to win a maiden race at this trip last time.
Conclusion ... ???
Best value of the 'likelies' - KAILANA @ 10/1
Best each way - COQUET @ 27/1
Thursday 31 May 2012
Sunday 27 May 2012
CURRAGH - Irish 1000 Guineas
Today's big race looks all set up for a repeat performance of the Newmarket 1000gns? So ask yourself, why is the favouritie not odds-on?
3.40 CURRAGH :
HOMECOMING QUEEN - A dramatic win last time, and given she has beaten most of this field before, what is to stop her wrapping up this one as well. A quick look at her form line shows that she has done nothing but improve sine last August. It also so shows, strangely, as it is Ireland we are talking about, that she had not raced on soft ground until August! And there hangs the doubt.
I said in my preview blog of the Oaks that it would be harder to repeat her win on faster ground. The reason for that, even if she handles fast ground equally well, horses behind who may be didn't like the soft, will find it easier to keep tabs on her. The problem punters are faced with today is whether she has just improved despite the underfoot conditions, or is her early 2yo runs on good to firm indicating she is not as quick relative to the others?
YELLOW ROSEBUD - Most definitely a serious threat after beating the one horse that blemished the above's run last season, Coral Waves. Perhaps that also preferred soft ground, but it was soft at Leopardstown. On breeding you would think this filly would be better on fast ground? She will also improve for that run. Trip no problem. However, she was beaten over 7f here last season, by Maybe, who was 3rd to Homecoming Queen at Newmarket.
LA COLLINA - My selection at Newmarket where she finished a staying-on 5th. Reverse of the favourite's profile, as she had not run on soft ground before, so I think her run shows much more promise for this one?
She will improve for the run. Will like the fast ground. Her win against the colts last season shows she it tough and classy.
Conclusion:
I will be amazed if the winner does not come from the first three in the betting. Yesterday I stuck with my previous selection in the follow up Classic for the colts, and I am not deserting LA COLLINA now.
Tactics will play a big part, and I am hoping that one of the outsiders, like Princess Sinead will keep the field closer to the leader, so the hold up types can go with her when she tries to kick on. If HOMECOMING QUEEN can act on the ground equally well then she will win. The other two most certainly can, and will both be nearer their peak having had a run. Which is why I think it will be a one-two of non-O'Brien horses battling it out.
It is not that I am anti-O'Brien, but that stable do tend to provide favourites in races, so where there is a doubt it means others are better value.
Earlier at the Curragh we have another odds-on O'Brien favourite in SO YOU THINK. Now here is a horse with few chinks. His style of running is relentless rather than flashy. If the early pace over 3f is good, he will pick it up from there, not necessarily leading, but just making sure the others do not have a breather and produce a turn of foot to beat him ... in the way that the ill-fated Rewilding did at Ascot. Or indeed, as Cirrus Des Aigles did at the same course later last season, Is there such a horse in this field? Mmmm?
May be not as good as CIRRUS DES AIGLES, who, until Frankel proves otherwise, it the best 10f around(and will add to that view at Longchamp today?). However, on that same Champions Day card at Ascot, Dancing Rain put up a great time in the 12f race, and got top figures to match. BIBLE BELT was 2nd, and if there is a horse that could upset the favourite, then she must be the one.
Things in her favour. She is now a 4yo and so should improve. So You Think is a 6yo and is unlikely to be better than last season. he has 10lbs to find on my figures, and she gets 3lbs sex allowance. Therefore, 7lbs to be gained from maturing into a 4yo? Not impossible. Also, the favourite disappointed at Meydan in March, and many horses struggle to come back from there on their first run back.
Against, Bible belt has not had a run. But at 1/4, I think So You Think has it all to do?
Have a good day.
p.s. I'm not sure if the ground was a problem for Hermival, but 10f will give him more time to bring his stamina into play. He did get a slight bump as he moved out, but it only cost him a length or so. Power shows just how a muddling race that Guineas was, Shame Parish Hall couldn't take part.
3.40 CURRAGH :
HOMECOMING QUEEN - A dramatic win last time, and given she has beaten most of this field before, what is to stop her wrapping up this one as well. A quick look at her form line shows that she has done nothing but improve sine last August. It also so shows, strangely, as it is Ireland we are talking about, that she had not raced on soft ground until August! And there hangs the doubt.
I said in my preview blog of the Oaks that it would be harder to repeat her win on faster ground. The reason for that, even if she handles fast ground equally well, horses behind who may be didn't like the soft, will find it easier to keep tabs on her. The problem punters are faced with today is whether she has just improved despite the underfoot conditions, or is her early 2yo runs on good to firm indicating she is not as quick relative to the others?
YELLOW ROSEBUD - Most definitely a serious threat after beating the one horse that blemished the above's run last season, Coral Waves. Perhaps that also preferred soft ground, but it was soft at Leopardstown. On breeding you would think this filly would be better on fast ground? She will also improve for that run. Trip no problem. However, she was beaten over 7f here last season, by Maybe, who was 3rd to Homecoming Queen at Newmarket.
LA COLLINA - My selection at Newmarket where she finished a staying-on 5th. Reverse of the favourite's profile, as she had not run on soft ground before, so I think her run shows much more promise for this one?
She will improve for the run. Will like the fast ground. Her win against the colts last season shows she it tough and classy.
Conclusion:
I will be amazed if the winner does not come from the first three in the betting. Yesterday I stuck with my previous selection in the follow up Classic for the colts, and I am not deserting LA COLLINA now.
Tactics will play a big part, and I am hoping that one of the outsiders, like Princess Sinead will keep the field closer to the leader, so the hold up types can go with her when she tries to kick on. If HOMECOMING QUEEN can act on the ground equally well then she will win. The other two most certainly can, and will both be nearer their peak having had a run. Which is why I think it will be a one-two of non-O'Brien horses battling it out.
It is not that I am anti-O'Brien, but that stable do tend to provide favourites in races, so where there is a doubt it means others are better value.
Earlier at the Curragh we have another odds-on O'Brien favourite in SO YOU THINK. Now here is a horse with few chinks. His style of running is relentless rather than flashy. If the early pace over 3f is good, he will pick it up from there, not necessarily leading, but just making sure the others do not have a breather and produce a turn of foot to beat him ... in the way that the ill-fated Rewilding did at Ascot. Or indeed, as Cirrus Des Aigles did at the same course later last season, Is there such a horse in this field? Mmmm?
May be not as good as CIRRUS DES AIGLES, who, until Frankel proves otherwise, it the best 10f around(and will add to that view at Longchamp today?). However, on that same Champions Day card at Ascot, Dancing Rain put up a great time in the 12f race, and got top figures to match. BIBLE BELT was 2nd, and if there is a horse that could upset the favourite, then she must be the one.
Things in her favour. She is now a 4yo and so should improve. So You Think is a 6yo and is unlikely to be better than last season. he has 10lbs to find on my figures, and she gets 3lbs sex allowance. Therefore, 7lbs to be gained from maturing into a 4yo? Not impossible. Also, the favourite disappointed at Meydan in March, and many horses struggle to come back from there on their first run back.
Against, Bible belt has not had a run. But at 1/4, I think So You Think has it all to do?
Have a good day.
p.s. I'm not sure if the ground was a problem for Hermival, but 10f will give him more time to bring his stamina into play. He did get a slight bump as he moved out, but it only cost him a length or so. Power shows just how a muddling race that Guineas was, Shame Parish Hall couldn't take part.
Saturday 26 May 2012
CURRAGH - Irish 2000 Guineas
Just a brief blog today. I am not advising on handicaps at the moment, waiting until this season's form settles down and well handicapped horses have had a run.
3.15 CURRAGH:
There are 'if's and but's' about most of this field, so in alphabetical order -
ALKAZIM - He will appreciate the better ground, but doubt he can beat many here.
BORN TO SEA - Alas, pedigree has hyped this one to a level above his talent. Yet to race on fast ground, but should do better off the fast pace? Possible place but no more.
DADDY LONG LEGS - Strange decision to run him here after running over 10f? Also broke down in his last run. At his best he would be a serious threat, but has not been trained for this one? My guess is that if he comes through this race and is okay, and is beaten, it is no disgrace, but if they run him at a lower level over 10f and he loses ...mm!
FOXTROT ROMEO - Unless Bryan Smart knows something more, this one looks out of his depth?
HERMIVAL - My selection last time, and if he handles the ground will be a big threat. He will appreciate a strong pace, and will be staying on at the finish. If the trainer thinks he will be okay on the ground, then he is one to beat.
PARISH HALL- He is another one to beat. One of my higher rated ones from last season, and will like the ground. Lack of a run is my only worry for him, and this season it seems more important than normal. Top chance.
POWER - Disappointed at Newmarket, but may do better this time. Not far behind Parish Hall on ratings, but needs to prove he has developed from last year.
REPLY - Not raced over 8f yet or this season. Lot of speed in his pedigree, but his win over 7f at Doncaster was pretty good, interesting?
TAKAR - Impressive winning last time out. This is tougher, and on faster ground, which on breeding is not likely to suit. Will stay, and could provide a shock.
TRUMPET MAJOR - Ran a good race last time. Has won on fast ground, and ran to his rating on it. Has not gone past his 2011 rating in my book, and if that is his level, it will not be quite good enough.
WROTE - This could be the O'Brien No 1, despite jockey bookings. Like Daddy long legs, has been racing over 10f, therefore an unlikely choice for pacemaker ... Which leaves J. O'Brien on Power to do the legwork? If that is the case it may not be the flat out gallop. If Reply sets the pace, and a quick one, it is more likely to suit this one, rather than Power. So when the race unfolds you will know your fate early on if you have chosen a Ballydoyle horse.
Conclusion:
Tight between PARISH HALL and HERMIVAL. One lacks a run, the other may not act on the ground? I will stick with the latter, as he should improve on the track and the way the race is run, and take a chance on the going.
1, HERMIVAL
2, PARISH HALL
3, WROTE
3.15 CURRAGH:
There are 'if's and but's' about most of this field, so in alphabetical order -
ALKAZIM - He will appreciate the better ground, but doubt he can beat many here.
BORN TO SEA - Alas, pedigree has hyped this one to a level above his talent. Yet to race on fast ground, but should do better off the fast pace? Possible place but no more.
DADDY LONG LEGS - Strange decision to run him here after running over 10f? Also broke down in his last run. At his best he would be a serious threat, but has not been trained for this one? My guess is that if he comes through this race and is okay, and is beaten, it is no disgrace, but if they run him at a lower level over 10f and he loses ...mm!
FOXTROT ROMEO - Unless Bryan Smart knows something more, this one looks out of his depth?
HERMIVAL - My selection last time, and if he handles the ground will be a big threat. He will appreciate a strong pace, and will be staying on at the finish. If the trainer thinks he will be okay on the ground, then he is one to beat.
PARISH HALL- He is another one to beat. One of my higher rated ones from last season, and will like the ground. Lack of a run is my only worry for him, and this season it seems more important than normal. Top chance.
POWER - Disappointed at Newmarket, but may do better this time. Not far behind Parish Hall on ratings, but needs to prove he has developed from last year.
REPLY - Not raced over 8f yet or this season. Lot of speed in his pedigree, but his win over 7f at Doncaster was pretty good, interesting?
TAKAR - Impressive winning last time out. This is tougher, and on faster ground, which on breeding is not likely to suit. Will stay, and could provide a shock.
TRUMPET MAJOR - Ran a good race last time. Has won on fast ground, and ran to his rating on it. Has not gone past his 2011 rating in my book, and if that is his level, it will not be quite good enough.
WROTE - This could be the O'Brien No 1, despite jockey bookings. Like Daddy long legs, has been racing over 10f, therefore an unlikely choice for pacemaker ... Which leaves J. O'Brien on Power to do the legwork? If that is the case it may not be the flat out gallop. If Reply sets the pace, and a quick one, it is more likely to suit this one, rather than Power. So when the race unfolds you will know your fate early on if you have chosen a Ballydoyle horse.
Conclusion:
Tight between PARISH HALL and HERMIVAL. One lacks a run, the other may not act on the ground? I will stick with the latter, as he should improve on the track and the way the race is run, and take a chance on the going.
1, HERMIVAL
2, PARISH HALL
3, WROTE
Friday 25 May 2012
GOODWOOD - Friday
This is the colts version to spring a surprise in the Derby market or it would be if the winner was entered?
I say 'the winner', because quite clearly in the:
3.45 Goodwood - the winner MICHELANGELO.
Even with the false run race, he should have far to much class for these. It will be hard to up his figure if it is a slow run race, but given his excellent first run, improvement is almost guaranteed? Being by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare he will appreciate the better ground ... and 12f should he be supplemented for the Derby?
More likely is a run at at Royal Ascot, where a good 5 length win here will make him a force to be reckoned with ... we shall see?
Yesterday I gave two bits of information: One, Coquet winning, not emphatically, but might be enough to get a run in the Oaks. If well place as they turn from home at Epsom, I can see her staying very well, particularly that final 150yds uphill. Yes, she has a lot to do off her current mark, but with improvement for both the run and extra 2.5f, she could be bang there for a place at least?
The other was duff info, with me confusing my 'Bermondsey' with my 'Boomerang'. I did it in reverse when writing the blog the other day before ... the link obviously stuck after looking through the late cards! I put it down to early altzheimer's .... Now what was I saying?
Have a good day ...
I say 'the winner', because quite clearly in the:
3.45 Goodwood - the winner MICHELANGELO.
Even with the false run race, he should have far to much class for these. It will be hard to up his figure if it is a slow run race, but given his excellent first run, improvement is almost guaranteed? Being by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare he will appreciate the better ground ... and 12f should he be supplemented for the Derby?
More likely is a run at at Royal Ascot, where a good 5 length win here will make him a force to be reckoned with ... we shall see?
Yesterday I gave two bits of information: One, Coquet winning, not emphatically, but might be enough to get a run in the Oaks. If well place as they turn from home at Epsom, I can see her staying very well, particularly that final 150yds uphill. Yes, she has a lot to do off her current mark, but with improvement for both the run and extra 2.5f, she could be bang there for a place at least?
The other was duff info, with me confusing my 'Bermondsey' with my 'Boomerang'. I did it in reverse when writing the blog the other day before ... the link obviously stuck after looking through the late cards! I put it down to early altzheimer's .... Now what was I saying?
Have a good day ...
Thursday 24 May 2012
GOODWOOD - Thursday
Just a quick follow on from my review blog.
3.45 GOODWOOD - HEIGHT OF FASHION Stakes
NAYARRA was just behind Laugh Out Loud in the 1000gns, and now tries the longer trip. Up against some yet to race this season, and those that have are only fair. A chance if distance suits.
COQUET - She has yet to race this season, and only raced three times in all. However, she stepped up from winning an AW class 6 race to winning a Listed Maiden at Newmarket. On breeding the extra distance will suit, and if there is to be a surprise package for the Oaks, she is it. If you don't lump on her today, then have a small saver for the Oaks ante post, okay?
Elsewhere, Boomerang Bob is running at Salisbury, the 6.40, and guess what ... he is sprinting!
Have a good day ...
3.45 GOODWOOD - HEIGHT OF FASHION Stakes
NAYARRA was just behind Laugh Out Loud in the 1000gns, and now tries the longer trip. Up against some yet to race this season, and those that have are only fair. A chance if distance suits.
COQUET - She has yet to race this season, and only raced three times in all. However, she stepped up from winning an AW class 6 race to winning a Listed Maiden at Newmarket. On breeding the extra distance will suit, and if there is to be a surprise package for the Oaks, she is it. If you don't lump on her today, then have a small saver for the Oaks ante post, okay?
Elsewhere, Boomerang Bob is running at Salisbury, the 6.40, and guess what ... he is sprinting!
Have a good day ...
Wednesday 23 May 2012
Review: Trial, Guineas, and method+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
While there is a mini lull in the number of races, I thought I would pass on my observation on races gone by.
First an outline as to why my view may not always agree with the official view.
I judge races by time, and rate accordingly. More precisely, I begin with the Official Handicap mark, and it gets a plus or a minus on that figure, depending it has gone better or slower than its rating might suggest. Unlike ordinary 'speed' handicapping, the winner does not dictate the rating of those behind. Each horse is subject to the same evaluation. For example, if Horse A and Horse B dead heat, and say A was handicapped with a rating 10lbs lower than B, what normally happens with form analysis is either a placed horse is deemed the pivot to which others are rated from, both in front and behind. However, with two winners on differing marks it can be hard to make the correct call. Even worse with speed only figures. In alphabetical order, those behind would be 10lbs (or points lower where 1lb=1point), or 10lbs higher from the other. I have no such problem. Both winners get a rating appropriate to their own mark, as does the 3rd, 4th, etc.
That then is the method.
Starting with : 2000 Guineas.
It has a lot of anomalies but what is clear, against my standard times, this was not the fastest race on the card, relative per furlong to the other races. The sectional times were put up showing that they went steady early on, had a quick burst after halfway, which dropped off slightly for the final section. Therefore it was a pretty standard true run race? The first anomaly occurs over the quick section, where Boomerang Bob, a 40/1(opened at 100/1) outsider clocked the quickest sectional(furlong?). That was 3 furlongs out, and eventually finish 13th. Perhaps he is a sprinter? He was on the same side as Camelot. Those drawn on the far side finished 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th, where the going was presumed slightly quicker. Camelot came with a steady run from a long way back, and apart from French Fifteen, nothing was going quicker than him after coming out of the dip.
With the overall time slow(than it should be for a horse of his class), and it looked more workmanlike than classy to me. I prefaced my Guineas preview by saying horses are not always at their best when they win. That may well be the case here?
My ratings for this race were CAMELOT - 115, minus 4lbs, FRENCH FIFTEEN - 112, HERMIVAL - 108, TRUMPET MAJOR 108, and COUP DE VILLE 103. Not a high scoring 2000gns by any means.
Camelot won on merit, and will do better as the year progresses on better ground. Hermival(my sel) might have done better if he had something to race with over the final 2f, but Trumpet Major did not improve on his rating on similar going. Coup De Ville had a perfect race on the far side, as he sat behind the other 4 over there until the closing stages, and so belied his odds of 66/1 and finished less than 4 lengths off the winner. For a horse rated in the low 100's, that is a fair effort, but confirms the low rating of Camelot?
1000 Guineas:
This was run in an entirely different manner. Fast early on, slow at the finish. But that only tells half the story. It may have been Frankel-esque at the finish, but if this race was re-staged at any point in the future I don't think it would turn out the same. First of all, let me say Homing Queen won the race fair and square. It was very slightly the quickest race of the day, but given the overall class of the winners were down from the Saturday, the conditions allowance suggested it was only marginally quicker ground.
Homecoming Queen destroyed this as a contest with two decisive moves. The first was taking up the running in an aggressive manner at the end of the first furlong. I think most jockeys must have thought she was going too quick after they tried to stay with her, and so she kept a healthy gap before the next surge of pace. Again, the timing of it may have caught them out a second time, because rather than wait until the run into the dip for a final effort, Ryan Moore move up a gear about 3.5f out. This caught the field flat footed, and she gained an easy 5 lengths extra, and they had to press from much further out. Full marks to Homecoming Queen, she was able to maintain enough speed over that slow final furlong that the result was never in doubt.
Ratingwise, she did better than her male counterparts in so far as she added to her rating, but as explained earlier, she was coming off a lower base.
HOMECOMING QUEEN - 111, plus 6, STARSCOPE - 99, plus 1 despite being a long way back. MAYBE - 112, minus 4(This is where the perversity of the method looks all wrong, where the beaten horse can still rate higher at level weights. But against her own mark she is minus 4). THE FUGUE was also minus 4 on 111(estimated). Meanwhile, back in 8th, LAUGH OUT LOUD only matched her rating of 96. Which brings me neatly on to the OAKS Trials. But as far as the above race being FRANKEL-esque, well may be in appearance. In his 2000gns, he went 6f pace for the whole of the first 6f. But note how later in the year the pursuers got a wee bit closer. My confident selection, Mashoora, was completely undone in the first two furlongs. Probably stuck in the French type race mode, where they tend to go slow early, she was nicely placed on the far rail, but when the winner swept by she went from 2nd to 2nd last in no time at all. She struggled to go that pace, and despite getting back into the group, the earlier effort destroyed her. Homecoming Queen is no Frankel, and she will find it much harder to dominate with faster ground, which will suit those with a much higher cruising speed, and can gain ground easier on a quick surface? That said, she has not stopped improving since last July, and could easily add the Irish 1000 if underfoot conditions permit, and before the others get fully fit?
Oaks trials - York's Musidora Stakes:
This saw a quick appearance of THE FUGUE. She duly won impressively, but alas, the time was quite slow, so modest figures follow. Twirl was made favourite on the strength of a soft ground 2nd, Such a comprehensive beating of one of the O'Brien 'sighters' must be more worrying for them after a double Guineas success? Good Morning Star put paid to another at Chester, and finished stone last here? There was a lot to like about this victory, but you have to hope a truer run 12f at Epsom will produce better figures from her, because not improving on this low mark will be her undoing.
Newbury's Swettenham Stud Stakes.
33/1 Momentary added 5lbs to her low rating by just beating Shirocco Star, who also gained 5. Back in 3rd was 1000gns 2nd, Starscope, she only managed to match her unchanged rating of 98
York Michael Sobell Stakes
This brought Laugh Out Loud to the fore, improving her rating. This was over 8f, so not a real Oaks test?
So between these three races, The Fugue looks the better, but from an estimated rating. Laugh Out Loud and Starscope mid way between, and Momentary and Shirocco Star as the least likely?
My guess will be that something else might pop up on the day itself, or perhaps a convincing performance at Goodwood, in the race that Snow Fairy won, or even in the Irish 1000 could do it. Somewhere, there has to be one capable of rattling in 112 plus, as I am not yet convinced that MAYBE is a better horse than last year.
Derby Trials. Oh boy, if you thought it was confusing for the girls, the boys race is even more upside down? My feeling is, for both these Classics is that the weather has put these horses back a month, and they only have 10 days to put it right. It really will come down to who is going to be best on the day, which may not be the best at the end of the season. A brief review:
BONFIRE looked the part on his delayed return. Sure to improve, but needs to if he wants a decent mark in the big one.
CAMELOT did nothing wrong in winning his 'trial', and has the best rating to date. He should be better on quicker ground, and on breeding his stamina should be another boost. Like Maybe, I wonder if he is as good as he looked as a 2yo? Potentially the one to beat.
MICKDAAM won over the distance at Chester, and was a decent effort in the circumstances. Not dismissed from a place, and could improve a bit more?
RUGGED CROSS seems popular after his reappearance, but time not that great, so has a lot to do on ratings.
PARISH HALL has been waiting for better ground and has an opportunity to stake a claim win a convincing win in the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday? But with the Derby only a week on, it would have to be something special?
There are a host of others who could create a shock, including the Ballydoyle lesser lights, ASTROLOGY and FATHER OF SCIENCE, but I would be surprised if the winner did not come from the above, and most likely the top two.
First an outline as to why my view may not always agree with the official view.
I judge races by time, and rate accordingly. More precisely, I begin with the Official Handicap mark, and it gets a plus or a minus on that figure, depending it has gone better or slower than its rating might suggest. Unlike ordinary 'speed' handicapping, the winner does not dictate the rating of those behind. Each horse is subject to the same evaluation. For example, if Horse A and Horse B dead heat, and say A was handicapped with a rating 10lbs lower than B, what normally happens with form analysis is either a placed horse is deemed the pivot to which others are rated from, both in front and behind. However, with two winners on differing marks it can be hard to make the correct call. Even worse with speed only figures. In alphabetical order, those behind would be 10lbs (or points lower where 1lb=1point), or 10lbs higher from the other. I have no such problem. Both winners get a rating appropriate to their own mark, as does the 3rd, 4th, etc.
That then is the method.
Starting with : 2000 Guineas.
It has a lot of anomalies but what is clear, against my standard times, this was not the fastest race on the card, relative per furlong to the other races. The sectional times were put up showing that they went steady early on, had a quick burst after halfway, which dropped off slightly for the final section. Therefore it was a pretty standard true run race? The first anomaly occurs over the quick section, where Boomerang Bob, a 40/1(opened at 100/1) outsider clocked the quickest sectional(furlong?). That was 3 furlongs out, and eventually finish 13th. Perhaps he is a sprinter? He was on the same side as Camelot. Those drawn on the far side finished 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th, where the going was presumed slightly quicker. Camelot came with a steady run from a long way back, and apart from French Fifteen, nothing was going quicker than him after coming out of the dip.
With the overall time slow(than it should be for a horse of his class), and it looked more workmanlike than classy to me. I prefaced my Guineas preview by saying horses are not always at their best when they win. That may well be the case here?
My ratings for this race were CAMELOT - 115, minus 4lbs, FRENCH FIFTEEN - 112, HERMIVAL - 108, TRUMPET MAJOR 108, and COUP DE VILLE 103. Not a high scoring 2000gns by any means.
Camelot won on merit, and will do better as the year progresses on better ground. Hermival(my sel) might have done better if he had something to race with over the final 2f, but Trumpet Major did not improve on his rating on similar going. Coup De Ville had a perfect race on the far side, as he sat behind the other 4 over there until the closing stages, and so belied his odds of 66/1 and finished less than 4 lengths off the winner. For a horse rated in the low 100's, that is a fair effort, but confirms the low rating of Camelot?
1000 Guineas:
This was run in an entirely different manner. Fast early on, slow at the finish. But that only tells half the story. It may have been Frankel-esque at the finish, but if this race was re-staged at any point in the future I don't think it would turn out the same. First of all, let me say Homing Queen won the race fair and square. It was very slightly the quickest race of the day, but given the overall class of the winners were down from the Saturday, the conditions allowance suggested it was only marginally quicker ground.
Homecoming Queen destroyed this as a contest with two decisive moves. The first was taking up the running in an aggressive manner at the end of the first furlong. I think most jockeys must have thought she was going too quick after they tried to stay with her, and so she kept a healthy gap before the next surge of pace. Again, the timing of it may have caught them out a second time, because rather than wait until the run into the dip for a final effort, Ryan Moore move up a gear about 3.5f out. This caught the field flat footed, and she gained an easy 5 lengths extra, and they had to press from much further out. Full marks to Homecoming Queen, she was able to maintain enough speed over that slow final furlong that the result was never in doubt.
Ratingwise, she did better than her male counterparts in so far as she added to her rating, but as explained earlier, she was coming off a lower base.
HOMECOMING QUEEN - 111, plus 6, STARSCOPE - 99, plus 1 despite being a long way back. MAYBE - 112, minus 4(This is where the perversity of the method looks all wrong, where the beaten horse can still rate higher at level weights. But against her own mark she is minus 4). THE FUGUE was also minus 4 on 111(estimated). Meanwhile, back in 8th, LAUGH OUT LOUD only matched her rating of 96. Which brings me neatly on to the OAKS Trials. But as far as the above race being FRANKEL-esque, well may be in appearance. In his 2000gns, he went 6f pace for the whole of the first 6f. But note how later in the year the pursuers got a wee bit closer. My confident selection, Mashoora, was completely undone in the first two furlongs. Probably stuck in the French type race mode, where they tend to go slow early, she was nicely placed on the far rail, but when the winner swept by she went from 2nd to 2nd last in no time at all. She struggled to go that pace, and despite getting back into the group, the earlier effort destroyed her. Homecoming Queen is no Frankel, and she will find it much harder to dominate with faster ground, which will suit those with a much higher cruising speed, and can gain ground easier on a quick surface? That said, she has not stopped improving since last July, and could easily add the Irish 1000 if underfoot conditions permit, and before the others get fully fit?
Oaks trials - York's Musidora Stakes:
This saw a quick appearance of THE FUGUE. She duly won impressively, but alas, the time was quite slow, so modest figures follow. Twirl was made favourite on the strength of a soft ground 2nd, Such a comprehensive beating of one of the O'Brien 'sighters' must be more worrying for them after a double Guineas success? Good Morning Star put paid to another at Chester, and finished stone last here? There was a lot to like about this victory, but you have to hope a truer run 12f at Epsom will produce better figures from her, because not improving on this low mark will be her undoing.
Newbury's Swettenham Stud Stakes.
33/1 Momentary added 5lbs to her low rating by just beating Shirocco Star, who also gained 5. Back in 3rd was 1000gns 2nd, Starscope, she only managed to match her unchanged rating of 98
York Michael Sobell Stakes
This brought Laugh Out Loud to the fore, improving her rating. This was over 8f, so not a real Oaks test?
So between these three races, The Fugue looks the better, but from an estimated rating. Laugh Out Loud and Starscope mid way between, and Momentary and Shirocco Star as the least likely?
My guess will be that something else might pop up on the day itself, or perhaps a convincing performance at Goodwood, in the race that Snow Fairy won, or even in the Irish 1000 could do it. Somewhere, there has to be one capable of rattling in 112 plus, as I am not yet convinced that MAYBE is a better horse than last year.
Derby Trials. Oh boy, if you thought it was confusing for the girls, the boys race is even more upside down? My feeling is, for both these Classics is that the weather has put these horses back a month, and they only have 10 days to put it right. It really will come down to who is going to be best on the day, which may not be the best at the end of the season. A brief review:
BONFIRE looked the part on his delayed return. Sure to improve, but needs to if he wants a decent mark in the big one.
CAMELOT did nothing wrong in winning his 'trial', and has the best rating to date. He should be better on quicker ground, and on breeding his stamina should be another boost. Like Maybe, I wonder if he is as good as he looked as a 2yo? Potentially the one to beat.
MICKDAAM won over the distance at Chester, and was a decent effort in the circumstances. Not dismissed from a place, and could improve a bit more?
RUGGED CROSS seems popular after his reappearance, but time not that great, so has a lot to do on ratings.
PARISH HALL has been waiting for better ground and has an opportunity to stake a claim win a convincing win in the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday? But with the Derby only a week on, it would have to be something special?
There are a host of others who could create a shock, including the Ballydoyle lesser lights, ASTROLOGY and FATHER OF SCIENCE, but I would be surprised if the winner did not come from the above, and most likely the top two.
Tuesday 22 May 2012
Arrgh, little baby FRANKEL all growed up!
Yes, grown up and going to be more devastating than ever!
Before the race I said that this would be his toughest race ... Well, over 8 furlongs at least, that still looks to be the case?
I said before the race if he failed to settle, or pulled too hard, or set off too quick, it might cost him. He did none of these things. He is now a proper racehorse ... a seriously good proper racehorse mind!
I said before the race how hard it is for horses who finish on a high mark to pick up where they left off, where previously they had a whole season to build to that point. FRANKEL makes a mockery of such thoughts, after finishing last season on a pinnacle world-wide BHA rating of 136, on my figures he has just added another 3, first time out, which could see him add another 6? 8? 10lbs to that by the end of the season?
Fortunately, I also said before the race, that he looked like he would be better when he 'grew up'. I think we can safely say he has done that.
So what of the future? Well over 8f you will be lucky if you see 1/5 odds. In a true run race, no dangers, and at last it seems there is a jockey and horse combination who understand what a pacemaker should do. Top marks to Ian Mongan and Bullet Train, they did it to perfection. Which is why the time of the race was relatively so much faster than the other races on the cards. If that is repeated every time there is not a horse who will get near him this season ... over a mile.
Dropping back to 7f to go head to head with Black Caviar might be closer, but the latter tends to just keep up a fast tempo, not that acceleration the moment the reins are loosened. Closer, but no danger to his unbeaten record.
For me, the serious challenge will come when he goes toe to toe with Cirrus Des Aigles over 10f, as he surely will before he goes off to stud at the end of the season?
When he tries that distance is another matter. Off to Royal Ascot over a mile, then maybe to York over 10f?
He needs to have one run over that trip before, say, Champions Day at Ascot? If it proves he handles 10f in the same manner as 8f, with the same acceleration at the end, then surely the 'Arc' will be at the back of everyone's mind?
However, just to put things into perspective, the next 'Frankel', Camelot, who won the 2000gns , on my figures would have beaten Bullet Train by 1.5 lengths ... so Frankel would be a further 7.5 lengths ahead!
Yes, Camelot is expected to be better over further, and on better ground, but when you are talking superstars, there is only one , and FRANKEL is his name.
Before the race I said that this would be his toughest race ... Well, over 8 furlongs at least, that still looks to be the case?
I said before the race if he failed to settle, or pulled too hard, or set off too quick, it might cost him. He did none of these things. He is now a proper racehorse ... a seriously good proper racehorse mind!
I said before the race how hard it is for horses who finish on a high mark to pick up where they left off, where previously they had a whole season to build to that point. FRANKEL makes a mockery of such thoughts, after finishing last season on a pinnacle world-wide BHA rating of 136, on my figures he has just added another 3, first time out, which could see him add another 6? 8? 10lbs to that by the end of the season?
Fortunately, I also said before the race, that he looked like he would be better when he 'grew up'. I think we can safely say he has done that.
So what of the future? Well over 8f you will be lucky if you see 1/5 odds. In a true run race, no dangers, and at last it seems there is a jockey and horse combination who understand what a pacemaker should do. Top marks to Ian Mongan and Bullet Train, they did it to perfection. Which is why the time of the race was relatively so much faster than the other races on the cards. If that is repeated every time there is not a horse who will get near him this season ... over a mile.
Dropping back to 7f to go head to head with Black Caviar might be closer, but the latter tends to just keep up a fast tempo, not that acceleration the moment the reins are loosened. Closer, but no danger to his unbeaten record.
For me, the serious challenge will come when he goes toe to toe with Cirrus Des Aigles over 10f, as he surely will before he goes off to stud at the end of the season?
When he tries that distance is another matter. Off to Royal Ascot over a mile, then maybe to York over 10f?
He needs to have one run over that trip before, say, Champions Day at Ascot? If it proves he handles 10f in the same manner as 8f, with the same acceleration at the end, then surely the 'Arc' will be at the back of everyone's mind?
However, just to put things into perspective, the next 'Frankel', Camelot, who won the 2000gns , on my figures would have beaten Bullet Train by 1.5 lengths ... so Frankel would be a further 7.5 lengths ahead!
Yes, Camelot is expected to be better over further, and on better ground, but when you are talking superstars, there is only one , and FRANKEL is his name.
Saturday 19 May 2012
Saturday 19 May
An early post for a change ... I awoke earlier this morning so I have had a chance to look at some of the many interesting races. But let's kick off with the:
3.40 NEWBURY: The LOCKINGE STAKES
Yes another FRANKEL v EXCELEBRATION race, and it is no means a walkover for the former, despite the odds suggesting it might be? I think this will be FRANKEL's toughest race he'll face this year.
Remember they kicked off together last year, and the mighty one had 4 lengths to spare. They appeared to have matched their respective improvements right to the end of the season. The big difference this time is that EXCELEBRATION has already got a Group 3 race under his belt. He did not have to be on top form to win that, whereas Frankel will have to be pretty near his top game to win today.
I have been stressing a lot how difficult it is for horses who finish on a high mark, having had all season long to achieve that, to then come out and pick up at that level first time out. On the plus side, Frankel always gave the impression that once he 'grew up' he would be an even better horse this year .... Now there is a thought worth lingering over?
Much will depend on how he has matured over the winter. If he settles better and uses his speed where it counts then, other than Black Caviar, I do not think there will be a horse to match him over whatever distance he tries. Today though, he may be a bit fresh, pull hard, not settle, go off too quick for his current fitness level to last home ... A combination of any of those could be his downfall, and Ballydoyle would love to have the only horse to beat him?
Elsewhere ...
2.55 THIRSK : 6f
BARNEY MCGREW looks to have a few lbs in hand. Drawn high, near the current fav, PEARL ICE. That has got a lot to do to kick off at this level, but it has been well backed(from a stable who like the odd tilt?). Old BG has shown some useful ability last year, but whether this will be his day is another matter. It pays to be one side or the other at Thirsk, and there are some quick runners on the low side, and MON BRAV is a C/D winner and may be the best of them.
THIRSK 4.05: 5f
SINGUER is also a C/D winner and looks like going off favourite. He did not get a great rating for that win, so I would oppose him at the odds. The main pace seems to be drawn low, with TAX FREE and FOXY MUSIC both there, and LUI REI may benefit from that. He has improved a lot, but it just depends whether the dryer ground is a factor? On the far side, MAGICAL MACEY makes a quick reappearance from York on Thursday, and if he gets any pace on the high side he will have a great chance.
1.40 NEWMARKET: 7f
CAPE ROCK is an interesting runner, if only because he has been backed, despite any recent evidence of any form? Readily opposed by me, which leaves it open for something at a bigger price to come in?
My fancy, SNOW TROOPER is drifting in the betting, despite being well in on best form, so I would give expect it will be GREAT EXPECTATIONS to live up to his name?
2.45 NEWMARKET: 6f
If the race down the middle the draw will not matter so much, but just in case I will put up one from each side as positives. HEERAT on the high side, and one his jockey will know all about, PEA SHOOTER on the far side.
Well my time is up, have a good day ...
p.s. I hope to review the Guineas and Derby trials tomorrow ... All is not as it seems???
3.40 NEWBURY: The LOCKINGE STAKES
Yes another FRANKEL v EXCELEBRATION race, and it is no means a walkover for the former, despite the odds suggesting it might be? I think this will be FRANKEL's toughest race he'll face this year.
Remember they kicked off together last year, and the mighty one had 4 lengths to spare. They appeared to have matched their respective improvements right to the end of the season. The big difference this time is that EXCELEBRATION has already got a Group 3 race under his belt. He did not have to be on top form to win that, whereas Frankel will have to be pretty near his top game to win today.
I have been stressing a lot how difficult it is for horses who finish on a high mark, having had all season long to achieve that, to then come out and pick up at that level first time out. On the plus side, Frankel always gave the impression that once he 'grew up' he would be an even better horse this year .... Now there is a thought worth lingering over?
Much will depend on how he has matured over the winter. If he settles better and uses his speed where it counts then, other than Black Caviar, I do not think there will be a horse to match him over whatever distance he tries. Today though, he may be a bit fresh, pull hard, not settle, go off too quick for his current fitness level to last home ... A combination of any of those could be his downfall, and Ballydoyle would love to have the only horse to beat him?
Elsewhere ...
2.55 THIRSK : 6f
BARNEY MCGREW looks to have a few lbs in hand. Drawn high, near the current fav, PEARL ICE. That has got a lot to do to kick off at this level, but it has been well backed(from a stable who like the odd tilt?). Old BG has shown some useful ability last year, but whether this will be his day is another matter. It pays to be one side or the other at Thirsk, and there are some quick runners on the low side, and MON BRAV is a C/D winner and may be the best of them.
THIRSK 4.05: 5f
SINGUER is also a C/D winner and looks like going off favourite. He did not get a great rating for that win, so I would oppose him at the odds. The main pace seems to be drawn low, with TAX FREE and FOXY MUSIC both there, and LUI REI may benefit from that. He has improved a lot, but it just depends whether the dryer ground is a factor? On the far side, MAGICAL MACEY makes a quick reappearance from York on Thursday, and if he gets any pace on the high side he will have a great chance.
1.40 NEWMARKET: 7f
CAPE ROCK is an interesting runner, if only because he has been backed, despite any recent evidence of any form? Readily opposed by me, which leaves it open for something at a bigger price to come in?
My fancy, SNOW TROOPER is drifting in the betting, despite being well in on best form, so I would give expect it will be GREAT EXPECTATIONS to live up to his name?
2.45 NEWMARKET: 6f
If the race down the middle the draw will not matter so much, but just in case I will put up one from each side as positives. HEERAT on the high side, and one his jockey will know all about, PEA SHOOTER on the far side.
Well my time is up, have a good day ...
p.s. I hope to review the Guineas and Derby trials tomorrow ... All is not as it seems???
Friday 18 May 2012
YORK - Friday
Another lalte posting, but at least this is about the York 2 o'clock race.
I think the favourite. CAUCUS, has a lot to do here. SPIFER is a few lbs ahead, but with 2 caveats: No previous York experience, and no outing this season to show its well-being.. It has been backed, which may give some hope on the latter account. However, this race is littered with horses who have performed well here last season, and quite a few are ahead of their marks on their best form. Who brings it to the table today is probably not so important as following those that do well in it?
York 4.10:
I was quite keen on MEDIA HYPE as I went through these, until I saw that it is stepping up in class. It is one thing for a 3yo to improve enough over winter and go up a couple of grades, but this is 5yo and ids a big ask?
I suspect a big pricer winner here, as I am not keen on the 2nd fav either, SANDUSKY ..be warned.
Have a good day ...
I think the favourite. CAUCUS, has a lot to do here. SPIFER is a few lbs ahead, but with 2 caveats: No previous York experience, and no outing this season to show its well-being.. It has been backed, which may give some hope on the latter account. However, this race is littered with horses who have performed well here last season, and quite a few are ahead of their marks on their best form. Who brings it to the table today is probably not so important as following those that do well in it?
York 4.10:
I was quite keen on MEDIA HYPE as I went through these, until I saw that it is stepping up in class. It is one thing for a 3yo to improve enough over winter and go up a couple of grades, but this is 5yo and ids a big ask?
I suspect a big pricer winner here, as I am not keen on the 2nd fav either, SANDUSKY ..be warned.
Have a good day ...
Thursday 17 May 2012
YORK - Thursday
Well I think the 1.30 here is going to be a race to take horse from, for their future races. There are very few that have not got a better mark than they are on in this .... so those that diappoint will get dropped even lower.
Several looked to have been laid out for this, especially ANCIENT CROSS. He is not the most 'well in', but likes York and the ground is okay. STEPS is a big danger on his run this year.Only the lack of previous York experience puts a slight doubt him. DOCTOR PARKES is another who is 'well in' and has run well here .... but so have several others. IRISH HEARTBEAT I think this trip is too short on this quick track, and SECRET WITNESS is also a negative, as his run yesterday did not improve its rating, yet has a 6lbs penalty.
The 2. o'clock race is the opposite wher most oare below their current mark. TIMEPIECE could be the on to be on, but needs to improve ... I suspect an upset in this.
the next is probably better watched, although FENCING will do better than his run in the 2000gns. Whether that is enough remains to be seen.
The 3 o'clock is as far as I got this morning, and is wide open. FURY needs everything to drop right for hip, as he has one quick burst of speed, and he keeps rising in the h'ap for his near misses.. Another upset here.
Post time ...have a good day ...
Several looked to have been laid out for this, especially ANCIENT CROSS. He is not the most 'well in', but likes York and the ground is okay. STEPS is a big danger on his run this year.Only the lack of previous York experience puts a slight doubt him. DOCTOR PARKES is another who is 'well in' and has run well here .... but so have several others. IRISH HEARTBEAT I think this trip is too short on this quick track, and SECRET WITNESS is also a negative, as his run yesterday did not improve its rating, yet has a 6lbs penalty.
The 2. o'clock race is the opposite wher most oare below their current mark. TIMEPIECE could be the on to be on, but needs to improve ... I suspect an upset in this.
the next is probably better watched, although FENCING will do better than his run in the 2000gns. Whether that is enough remains to be seen.
The 3 o'clock is as far as I got this morning, and is wide open. FURY needs everything to drop right for hip, as he has one quick burst of speed, and he keeps rising in the h'ap for his near misses.. Another upset here.
Post time ...have a good day ...
Wednesday 16 May 2012
York - Wednesday
Apologies for the lack of blogs since Chester, but quite frankly, when you have a course like Chester and very testing ground so early on in the season you have to tick all the boxes.
Unfortunately, at York there are similar problems. Not every horse likes York. The ground is drying up which may affect early season form, and ... the better horses are starting to appear.
A perfect example is today's big race:
York 3.00 - The Duke of York Stakes.
At the head of the market is HOOF IT. Top sprinter from last season, having his first run.
Close behind is this season's top sprinter MAYSON who has a preference for soft ground, and now the ground has dried up he has something to prove?
On my figures MAYSON has clearly improved, and is way ahead of HOOF IT's early season form, and would be my choice of the two.
Too much going on to cover other races, maybe tomorrow?
Have a good day ...
Unfortunately, at York there are similar problems. Not every horse likes York. The ground is drying up which may affect early season form, and ... the better horses are starting to appear.
A perfect example is today's big race:
York 3.00 - The Duke of York Stakes.
At the head of the market is HOOF IT. Top sprinter from last season, having his first run.
Close behind is this season's top sprinter MAYSON who has a preference for soft ground, and now the ground has dried up he has something to prove?
On my figures MAYSON has clearly improved, and is way ahead of HOOF IT's early season form, and would be my choice of the two.
Too much going on to cover other races, maybe tomorrow?
Have a good day ...
Wednesday 9 May 2012
CHESTER - Wednesday
Bit late with the blog today, so I'll be brief.
I love racing at Chester for the visual spectacle and the quality of the horses that race there. There trouble is it is a very unique track and the form does not always travel to other courses. It pays to keep a close eye on those with good previous experience.
2.35 CHESTER - THE CHESTER CUP:
When I went through this race I could not find any horse that has more than a couple of lbs in hand of its official mark. That tells me it is likely to be an upset.
The favourite looks worth taking on given the nature of this race, but those with course form either don't like the going or are badly h'capped. GULF OF NAPLES has improved on its previous best this season, but the handicapper looks to have kept pace with him? He is fit, and that will count for a lot while the going remains soft though.
3.05 CHESTER: -5F
A good draw is always a help and CONFESSIONAL not only has that, but his best is above this mark. However, he does not win very often. Both FOXY MUSIC and STAR ROVER have reasonable draws and will not ind the soft .... but both seem to win at a slightly lower grade than this, so need to improve?
My choice for a speculative each way is BLUE JACK. He is a big price because of the draw. But with luck in running he can repeat his win here from a similar draw last season. Certainly he has the class to win, whether he can is in the lap of the gods.
4.15 CHESTER: 5f
This is the second sprint on the cards and is no less easy. Most have negatives about them, and the current favourite did not show a preference for soft when I looked? Again a very speculative each way might be SHOSHONI WIND.
It is taking a rise in class, has a bad draw, but is fit, improving, and will not mind the ground.
Have a good day ...
I love racing at Chester for the visual spectacle and the quality of the horses that race there. There trouble is it is a very unique track and the form does not always travel to other courses. It pays to keep a close eye on those with good previous experience.
2.35 CHESTER - THE CHESTER CUP:
When I went through this race I could not find any horse that has more than a couple of lbs in hand of its official mark. That tells me it is likely to be an upset.
The favourite looks worth taking on given the nature of this race, but those with course form either don't like the going or are badly h'capped. GULF OF NAPLES has improved on its previous best this season, but the handicapper looks to have kept pace with him? He is fit, and that will count for a lot while the going remains soft though.
3.05 CHESTER: -5F
A good draw is always a help and CONFESSIONAL not only has that, but his best is above this mark. However, he does not win very often. Both FOXY MUSIC and STAR ROVER have reasonable draws and will not ind the soft .... but both seem to win at a slightly lower grade than this, so need to improve?
My choice for a speculative each way is BLUE JACK. He is a big price because of the draw. But with luck in running he can repeat his win here from a similar draw last season. Certainly he has the class to win, whether he can is in the lap of the gods.
4.15 CHESTER: 5f
This is the second sprint on the cards and is no less easy. Most have negatives about them, and the current favourite did not show a preference for soft when I looked? Again a very speculative each way might be SHOSHONI WIND.
It is taking a rise in class, has a bad draw, but is fit, improving, and will not mind the ground.
Have a good day ...
Sunday 6 May 2012
1000 GUINEAS DAY ....
Arrh, the 2000gns ... it went just as I pictured it ... 'The main group coming down the stands side, my selection overtaking his national compatriot and storm several clear up the hill, with the far side group trailing, because they were so few, and did not get into the race when it mattered'
Yes, I can remember it like it was yesterday ...
B*&^**^^ks!!
That is the trouble with old age ... you do remember things like yesterday, but things change in the meantime. There was me picturing the race from the stalls, looking down the track, horse drawn 1-18 from the left ...... It was only about 5 hours later(around 11.0am) did I have the thought that the inside of the track would be the far side ... where the low numbers start?
Right, having got that straight. Congrats to the winner, he did indeed dispel most of the doubts I had about him. It would have been interesting had the groups been reversed though? Not too unhappy with my predictions though, apart from Camelot, the horses I thought would be involved, were by and large, the ones that filled the minor honours. Hermival ran a grand race considering he took over from Abtaal a good 2f out, but was only briefly on terms with the stand side group. Good each way value though?
Having got that straight, on to today's race
Newmarket 3.15 - 1000 GUINEAS:
MASHOORA.
She has to be the selection given the strong showing of the French raiders yesterday. I did not think they would win both races, but I fancied this one much more. To begin her career in two Group 3's, finishing 2nd in both is pretty good. However, she has now continued that progress into her 3yo career and is something that not many in this race can boast. In my preview blog I said I wanted to be drawn near HOMECOMING QUEEN as I felt she would lead for a long way into the race. Noting that the two big field races after yesterdays big one went overwhelmingly to low drawn horses, so being drawn 3 and 2 respectively for the above two, I have everything in place for a good run?
The selection is not so ground dependent, but if it really dried out to genuine good ground I think my higher rated horse - DISCOURSE would be the main danger. I am again opposing the favourite MAYBE because she has to prove her well being this year. With a similar profile to the well backed Power yesterday, who faded badly, an both had a lot of races last year? LYRIC OF LIGHT will have to overcome the sticky ground. MOONSTONE MAGIC has to improve a lot, and I cannot see why DIALA will come from a class 5 maiden auction to win this??
My each way selection is still LA COLLINA, However, I would like to wait to hear the paddock view. If she looks to have improved a lot in physical appearance and well being I can see her running a big race. Her run behind MAYBE last time may have come a bit quick after a tough one beating the colts only 3 weeks before. I fully expect her to finish in front of the favourite if she pleases the eye in the paddock. The 8f should be no problem on her breeding, and she will be the closest to bringing off an Irish double. She is drawn in middle, which is great as she will come with a late rattle.
So there it is, another French/Irish one two, only in the reverse order from yesterday.
The big sprint handicap that is next on the card is interesting as most of the top order in the betting are drawn high, except the favourite, SEAL ROCK, who is on the low side(1 in fact). I have doubts about it following up the good win last time, as he has been hit hard by the h'capper, and the possible lack of pace over there. COLONEL MAK will help, but is it enough between them?
I have a sneaky each way selection at a biggish price - IRISH HEARTBEAT.
He goes well fresh, has won on the course, and his last run behind Secret Asset over York's short 6f would not have played to his strengths being 7f winner. The figures from that race are sound and has a reasonable chance if drawn 10 is not too much of a disadvantage? He will be staying on at the finish that is for sure.
Have a good day ....
Yes, I can remember it like it was yesterday ...
B*&^**^^ks!!
That is the trouble with old age ... you do remember things like yesterday, but things change in the meantime. There was me picturing the race from the stalls, looking down the track, horse drawn 1-18 from the left ...... It was only about 5 hours later(around 11.0am) did I have the thought that the inside of the track would be the far side ... where the low numbers start?
Right, having got that straight. Congrats to the winner, he did indeed dispel most of the doubts I had about him. It would have been interesting had the groups been reversed though? Not too unhappy with my predictions though, apart from Camelot, the horses I thought would be involved, were by and large, the ones that filled the minor honours. Hermival ran a grand race considering he took over from Abtaal a good 2f out, but was only briefly on terms with the stand side group. Good each way value though?
Having got that straight, on to today's race
Newmarket 3.15 - 1000 GUINEAS:
MASHOORA.
She has to be the selection given the strong showing of the French raiders yesterday. I did not think they would win both races, but I fancied this one much more. To begin her career in two Group 3's, finishing 2nd in both is pretty good. However, she has now continued that progress into her 3yo career and is something that not many in this race can boast. In my preview blog I said I wanted to be drawn near HOMECOMING QUEEN as I felt she would lead for a long way into the race. Noting that the two big field races after yesterdays big one went overwhelmingly to low drawn horses, so being drawn 3 and 2 respectively for the above two, I have everything in place for a good run?
The selection is not so ground dependent, but if it really dried out to genuine good ground I think my higher rated horse - DISCOURSE would be the main danger. I am again opposing the favourite MAYBE because she has to prove her well being this year. With a similar profile to the well backed Power yesterday, who faded badly, an both had a lot of races last year? LYRIC OF LIGHT will have to overcome the sticky ground. MOONSTONE MAGIC has to improve a lot, and I cannot see why DIALA will come from a class 5 maiden auction to win this??
My each way selection is still LA COLLINA, However, I would like to wait to hear the paddock view. If she looks to have improved a lot in physical appearance and well being I can see her running a big race. Her run behind MAYBE last time may have come a bit quick after a tough one beating the colts only 3 weeks before. I fully expect her to finish in front of the favourite if she pleases the eye in the paddock. The 8f should be no problem on her breeding, and she will be the closest to bringing off an Irish double. She is drawn in middle, which is great as she will come with a late rattle.
So there it is, another French/Irish one two, only in the reverse order from yesterday.
The big sprint handicap that is next on the card is interesting as most of the top order in the betting are drawn high, except the favourite, SEAL ROCK, who is on the low side(1 in fact). I have doubts about it following up the good win last time, as he has been hit hard by the h'capper, and the possible lack of pace over there. COLONEL MAK will help, but is it enough between them?
I have a sneaky each way selection at a biggish price - IRISH HEARTBEAT.
He goes well fresh, has won on the course, and his last run behind Secret Asset over York's short 6f would not have played to his strengths being 7f winner. The figures from that race are sound and has a reasonable chance if drawn 10 is not too much of a disadvantage? He will be staying on at the finish that is for sure.
Have a good day ....
Saturday 5 May 2012
2000 GUINEAS DAY!
I am not going to add much to my preview on Thursday. Very little has changed ... the ground looks like drying out a little, and we now have the draw.
As has been the trend recently, I expect them to race down the middle to start with, unless the O'Brien camp, after doing their usual thorough walk of the course and decide the far side is quicker, and they make a dash for the far rail. They have both POWER and CAMELOT drawn high, and I guess TRUMPET MAJOR will follow them? The low numbers will drift to the stands rail before the bushes, and if they stay in one group, the trio above will be on the wide outside. Out of trouble and a clear run, yes, but wide open space for the inexperienced CAMELOT to face, also yes.
My considered view is that he will have to be the super horse people think he is, but at his current price, too many doubts, so worth taking on. My biggest doubt is whether his breeding is leading everybody in the wrong direction? Remember Delegator? It took the a long time before they realised he was a sprinter. In fact 7f may be his optimum trip this season, and Camelot could well be the same?
Go back to his last win. A race which top staying juveniles aim for. It is run in an overall slow time - one of the relatively slowest of the day, mind - and that means the early pace was lacking, or the whole field apart from Camelot are pretty poor to run that slow at the end. Far better to take the view that this horse has a good cruising speed and a great deal of speed when conditions are right, ie, steady for 3 may be 4f, quickening up into a sprint finish. Those behind, at that stage of their lives just could not deal with it. They would have liked a strong pace where the stamina, not speed, kicked in over the final furlong .... Similar to how today's race will be run I suspect? As for his 'home work' ... Well they will not be testing him over the full distance will they? Nor at full speed, so he will always make the likes of Power look slow?? That then, is the case for the opposition
There will be no Frankel type dash this time. May be POWER will be the one to 'control' the pace early on in order to replicate the Doncaster conditions, but as both of them are drawn high, they will find it difficult to hold those nearest the stands rail. Their best chance might be to go to the far rail and have their own race over there? That way they have the excuse that 'their side' were not able to get into the race, and providing Camelot beats Trumpet Major, it may stem the flow of 'bubble bursting' that will generally follow a defeat.
Don't get me wrong. I would love to see another super star, I just do not see enough evidence to say that Camelot is that, prior to this race where he can prove me wrong.
My choice was, if sloppy, HERMIVAL would be the one. I still think he is the best value at around 20/1, but it may be close with ABTAAL as the ground dries out.. Having just checked the latest going, the far side is the marginally faster, but still on the slow side. I will stick with HERMIVAL as he is ideally drawn next to ABTAAL so may outstay him as they come out of the dip. Why I prefer the French horses, is that they have had a run - albeit, a 3f sprint in a 7f race, but last season ABTAAL had been a solid performer over 8f, and had beaten FRENCH FIFTEEN comfortably before, who is also drawn wide with CAMELOT. Rockinante was 4th last month to this trio, and he too would have been unsuited to the way that race was run, and yet, a similar staying profile of HERMIVAL was able to come from the rear and go with the front pair, when Rockinante could not. That tells me that this horse settles, has speed, will like the stiffer course and the extra furlong. Given that I rate Rockinante higher than Camelot, you can see why I think it could be a French one-two?
Conclusion: Two groups.
LOW HIGH
1st - HERMIVAL 1st - TRUMPET MAJOR
2nd - ABTAAL 2nd - FRENCH FIFTEEN
3rd - CASPAR NETSCHER 3rd - POWER
Lots of racing aside from the Guineas though. My a handicap selection is in:
Newmarket 4.20: SANS LOI
He finished just behind ES QUE LOVE first time out, but is now a lot better off thanks to that one being penalised again for another win. Sad truth is that horses get over-rated on official figures at this time of year, and now we are in May, those over high figures will begin to tell as better, fitter horses emerge.I really like Es Que, but his current mark is going to hang around him for some time now... unless he improves again of course? Whereas, SAN LOI was not put up so much, bettered his previous best(drawn high if they do go that side), and should come on for the run. Still on a winning mark, and at 9/1 is worth a small punt against anything else improving from last year?
Have a good day ...
As has been the trend recently, I expect them to race down the middle to start with, unless the O'Brien camp, after doing their usual thorough walk of the course and decide the far side is quicker, and they make a dash for the far rail. They have both POWER and CAMELOT drawn high, and I guess TRUMPET MAJOR will follow them? The low numbers will drift to the stands rail before the bushes, and if they stay in one group, the trio above will be on the wide outside. Out of trouble and a clear run, yes, but wide open space for the inexperienced CAMELOT to face, also yes.
My considered view is that he will have to be the super horse people think he is, but at his current price, too many doubts, so worth taking on. My biggest doubt is whether his breeding is leading everybody in the wrong direction? Remember Delegator? It took the a long time before they realised he was a sprinter. In fact 7f may be his optimum trip this season, and Camelot could well be the same?
Go back to his last win. A race which top staying juveniles aim for. It is run in an overall slow time - one of the relatively slowest of the day, mind - and that means the early pace was lacking, or the whole field apart from Camelot are pretty poor to run that slow at the end. Far better to take the view that this horse has a good cruising speed and a great deal of speed when conditions are right, ie, steady for 3 may be 4f, quickening up into a sprint finish. Those behind, at that stage of their lives just could not deal with it. They would have liked a strong pace where the stamina, not speed, kicked in over the final furlong .... Similar to how today's race will be run I suspect? As for his 'home work' ... Well they will not be testing him over the full distance will they? Nor at full speed, so he will always make the likes of Power look slow?? That then, is the case for the opposition
There will be no Frankel type dash this time. May be POWER will be the one to 'control' the pace early on in order to replicate the Doncaster conditions, but as both of them are drawn high, they will find it difficult to hold those nearest the stands rail. Their best chance might be to go to the far rail and have their own race over there? That way they have the excuse that 'their side' were not able to get into the race, and providing Camelot beats Trumpet Major, it may stem the flow of 'bubble bursting' that will generally follow a defeat.
Don't get me wrong. I would love to see another super star, I just do not see enough evidence to say that Camelot is that, prior to this race where he can prove me wrong.
My choice was, if sloppy, HERMIVAL would be the one. I still think he is the best value at around 20/1, but it may be close with ABTAAL as the ground dries out.. Having just checked the latest going, the far side is the marginally faster, but still on the slow side. I will stick with HERMIVAL as he is ideally drawn next to ABTAAL so may outstay him as they come out of the dip. Why I prefer the French horses, is that they have had a run - albeit, a 3f sprint in a 7f race, but last season ABTAAL had been a solid performer over 8f, and had beaten FRENCH FIFTEEN comfortably before, who is also drawn wide with CAMELOT. Rockinante was 4th last month to this trio, and he too would have been unsuited to the way that race was run, and yet, a similar staying profile of HERMIVAL was able to come from the rear and go with the front pair, when Rockinante could not. That tells me that this horse settles, has speed, will like the stiffer course and the extra furlong. Given that I rate Rockinante higher than Camelot, you can see why I think it could be a French one-two?
Conclusion: Two groups.
LOW HIGH
1st - HERMIVAL 1st - TRUMPET MAJOR
2nd - ABTAAL 2nd - FRENCH FIFTEEN
3rd - CASPAR NETSCHER 3rd - POWER
Lots of racing aside from the Guineas though. My a handicap selection is in:
Newmarket 4.20: SANS LOI
He finished just behind ES QUE LOVE first time out, but is now a lot better off thanks to that one being penalised again for another win. Sad truth is that horses get over-rated on official figures at this time of year, and now we are in May, those over high figures will begin to tell as better, fitter horses emerge.I really like Es Que, but his current mark is going to hang around him for some time now... unless he improves again of course? Whereas, SAN LOI was not put up so much, bettered his previous best(drawn high if they do go that side), and should come on for the run. Still on a winning mark, and at 9/1 is worth a small punt against anything else improving from last year?
Have a good day ...
Thursday 3 May 2012
Thursday 3rd May - 1000 Guineas preview
Once again doing this ahead of the 48 hour decs, partly because any defections will shorten the price of the others, and no Rule 4 with antepost bets.
Yesterday I wrote of the complexities of working out what is good and what isn't, especially when it involves the favourite. Visually he looked impressive, but beneath that you have a slowly run race that clearly suited the winner that day ... but how many behind ran to their best ...??
Today we have no such problem. The favourite is there on merit. He re they are in my ratings order:
MAYBE - 5/2(tads more, but it may well shorten by the time I finish this?)
Just top-rated, but a model of consistency. Five wins from five runs speaks for itself. With each step up in grade she continued to improve her ratings. From a Listed win at Royal Ascot through to her Group 1 success in the Moyglare at the Curragh. However, that was in August ... four wins in just over two months is pretty impressive, but it raises the question as to why her first season ended so early? Perhaps it was the case that they were not sure how good she was until the 'Moyglare', although she was odds on in that. But, by which time she was in need of a break.
The other doubt is that apart from her maiden, all runs were over 7f. Again that might be another consequence of her early finish. Her breeding should dismiss any stamina doubts, therefore her only 'weakness' is that she has been off the track for a long time?
I alluded to this next point yesterday, regarding the top rated, and that is because they finish their two year old season on a high mark, they have to develop into a three year old being capable of picking where they left off .... without the luxury of having several races build up to that mark. They have to be pretty special to do that, so this could the main reason for not taking the very short price. Like Camelot, Maybe could be special, and unlike the former, she is not over-rated in the first place!
DISCOURSE - 8/1
More lightly raced than the above, but also ended the season in August. Her rating comes from her slamming a useful field over the July course. If there are to be any defections overnight, then this may be among them, because she has all the doubts expressed above, and then some. The pedigree suggests fast ground as a preference? Stamina should not be a problem if she settles. However, for all that she has got one thing going for her ... an impressive performance backed up by an impressive time. Whether she will repeat that under the conditions on Sunday is another matter? It might just dry up enough for her to take her chance though.
The next group are a little way behind, but have a live chance should the doubts surface with the above two. they are:
LA COLLINA - 24/1
Twice behind MAYBE, but got close on the first occasion. Arguably her best run was in the 'Moyglare', and so is another who has not race since August, but I like her shock win the time before. That was over 6f where she took on the colts ... Not just ant colt mind, Power, Tough As Nails, Lilbourne Lad, Reply, Frederick Engels, and even Parish Hall were behind her. Three weeks later she tries 7f and probably did not see it out? Stamina should not be problem though, being out of a Galileo mare? If she has now grown into her full frame, and fit and ready to do herself justice, she has a turn of foot that makes her a serious contender.
LYRIC OF LIGHT - 10.5/1
Best of the end of season performers, and a dual 8f winner to boot. She beat a promising field in the Group 1 'Shadwell Fillies Mile' over C&D. If any horse is likely to do the 1000 Guineas/Oaks double it is probably her. If there is a doubt it will concern the going, as it was on the fast side at Newmarket that day?
LIGHTENING PEARL - 47/1
Another to have met, and lost to MAYBE over 7f, but has twice been successful over 6f since. The latest of those in the 'Cheveley Park' gives her a healthy rating, but stamina must be a doubt? Another will be the possibility of soft ground, which she has yet to race on.
MASHOORA - 8/1
This is a very tenuous estimated rating,but similar to the above. She has started campaign off with a win in the Group 1 Prix Impudence over the 'short' 7f, but finished 2011 off with a 2nd over a mile. She must be pretty highly thought of to start off in a Group 3, and in 3 starts she has neither lost or won by very far. By no means an instant dismissal from calculations, and the bookies are taking no chances with their offered odds? Barathea out of a Spinning World mare, stamina should not be a problem ... one for the shortlist I think?
Just below that quartet you have: Fire
Yesterday I wrote of the complexities of working out what is good and what isn't, especially when it involves the favourite. Visually he looked impressive, but beneath that you have a slowly run race that clearly suited the winner that day ... but how many behind ran to their best ...??
Today we have no such problem. The favourite is there on merit. He re they are in my ratings order:
MAYBE - 5/2(tads more, but it may well shorten by the time I finish this?)
Just top-rated, but a model of consistency. Five wins from five runs speaks for itself. With each step up in grade she continued to improve her ratings. From a Listed win at Royal Ascot through to her Group 1 success in the Moyglare at the Curragh. However, that was in August ... four wins in just over two months is pretty impressive, but it raises the question as to why her first season ended so early? Perhaps it was the case that they were not sure how good she was until the 'Moyglare', although she was odds on in that. But, by which time she was in need of a break.
The other doubt is that apart from her maiden, all runs were over 7f. Again that might be another consequence of her early finish. Her breeding should dismiss any stamina doubts, therefore her only 'weakness' is that she has been off the track for a long time?
I alluded to this next point yesterday, regarding the top rated, and that is because they finish their two year old season on a high mark, they have to develop into a three year old being capable of picking where they left off .... without the luxury of having several races build up to that mark. They have to be pretty special to do that, so this could the main reason for not taking the very short price. Like Camelot, Maybe could be special, and unlike the former, she is not over-rated in the first place!
DISCOURSE - 8/1
More lightly raced than the above, but also ended the season in August. Her rating comes from her slamming a useful field over the July course. If there are to be any defections overnight, then this may be among them, because she has all the doubts expressed above, and then some. The pedigree suggests fast ground as a preference? Stamina should not be a problem if she settles. However, for all that she has got one thing going for her ... an impressive performance backed up by an impressive time. Whether she will repeat that under the conditions on Sunday is another matter? It might just dry up enough for her to take her chance though.
The next group are a little way behind, but have a live chance should the doubts surface with the above two. they are:
LA COLLINA - 24/1
Twice behind MAYBE, but got close on the first occasion. Arguably her best run was in the 'Moyglare', and so is another who has not race since August, but I like her shock win the time before. That was over 6f where she took on the colts ... Not just ant colt mind, Power, Tough As Nails, Lilbourne Lad, Reply, Frederick Engels, and even Parish Hall were behind her. Three weeks later she tries 7f and probably did not see it out? Stamina should not be problem though, being out of a Galileo mare? If she has now grown into her full frame, and fit and ready to do herself justice, she has a turn of foot that makes her a serious contender.
LYRIC OF LIGHT - 10.5/1
Best of the end of season performers, and a dual 8f winner to boot. She beat a promising field in the Group 1 'Shadwell Fillies Mile' over C&D. If any horse is likely to do the 1000 Guineas/Oaks double it is probably her. If there is a doubt it will concern the going, as it was on the fast side at Newmarket that day?
LIGHTENING PEARL - 47/1
Another to have met, and lost to MAYBE over 7f, but has twice been successful over 6f since. The latest of those in the 'Cheveley Park' gives her a healthy rating, but stamina must be a doubt? Another will be the possibility of soft ground, which she has yet to race on.
MASHOORA - 8/1
This is a very tenuous estimated rating,but similar to the above. She has started campaign off with a win in the Group 1 Prix Impudence over the 'short' 7f, but finished 2011 off with a 2nd over a mile. She must be pretty highly thought of to start off in a Group 3, and in 3 starts she has neither lost or won by very far. By no means an instant dismissal from calculations, and the bookies are taking no chances with their offered odds? Barathea out of a Spinning World mare, stamina should not be a problem ... one for the shortlist I think?
Just below that quartet you have: Fire
Wednesday 2 May 2012
Wednesday,May 2nd - 2000gns preview
Have you ever wondered why horse racing is such a difficult game to pick winners on a consistent basis?
Well while I was completing my 2011 database several things became obvious. Apart from the obvious things like horses running over their best trip, with the right under-hoof conditions, and in a grade where they are capable of winning ... These are a given for any form student. No, it is the imponderables on the day itself that can make a mess of all your calculations. Lack of pace, or at least, the wrong pace that suits the selection best, might be again the first thing you have doubts about when checking the draw? But none of these things can have you tearing you hair out as much as this ingredient ....
.... HORSES DO NOT ALWAYS IMPROVE THEIR RATINGS WHEN WINNING ...Or to put it another way, HORSES CAN WIN WITHOUT BEING AT THEIR BEST.
What that simple observation does is opens up so many possibilities ... Did it win despite the way the race was run? Is it actually passed its peak? Did the horse behind/in front improve a lot?
So, when entering calculations before a race, how much of the above can you actually include in your assessment? Very little I would suggest. I repeat, have you ever wondered why horse racing is such a difficult game to pick winners on a consistent basis? ...
On that note, here are my thoughts on Saturday's 2000 Guineas:
Every horse in this race will have to improve on what they have done so far, especially if they want to break into that 120 plus rating that marks them out as a good winner of this race.
In my ratings order:
PARISH HALL - 25/1
POWER - 15.5/1
These two have the least ground to make up on their best performance in the same race. The problem they face is turning up not only as good as they were as two year olds, but at least 7lbs better. Not impossible, but a tough ask. Neither should be troubled by 8f, nor the drying ground.
TRUMPET MAJOR - 12/1
This one improved on my best rating from last year, and got near his OR with his convincing win over C&D last month. More rain might not inconvenience him, and any improvement will see him go close.
FRENCH FIFTEEN - 100/8(old money)
ABTAAL - 9/1
HERMIVAL - 24/1
I have put these three together from their run in the Prix Jebel at the beginning of last month, but their rating is only an estimate from the 4th placed ROCKINANTE. French Fifteen won the race, and is the selection of the 'dosage king', Steve Miller( ... not the 'Gangster of Love', that 'midnight shaker' is somebody else).
Here we have the first of what I alluded to in the intro ...Last season, Abtaal beat French Fifteen by 3lns, now has one improved more than another? Was one primed for that run more than the other? Did the second just not get away with not running to its best? How can you tell. Well I thought that Rockinante was a good yardstick, being a Group 3 winner ... BUT, this race was run over just short of 7f, in a slow time, and he is a stayer (in the making). If he ran anywhere near his mark, then these three have an excellent chance. I say 'three', because Hermival will like the stiffer track and extra furlong, and probably more rain. If it does turn sloppy, he is the one to be on out of the three. He is bred for further, so to stay on, in what was probably a typical 3f sprint, shows he may have the speed for this mile. He won on heavy first time out. Whether Abtaal reverses places having had that run, assuming First Fifteen just got first run on him, and they both improve the same, is anyones, outside of their traner's circle, guess. Me, I think 3f sprints don't cut it at Newmarket?
The next group are all in with a shout of winning a 2nd class Guineas, but might go on to better things later.
CASPAR NETSCHER - 29/1
BRONTERRE - 41/1
BORN TO SEA - 11/1
FURNER'S GREEN - 109/1
The last two both have an estimated rating through other horses, but have done nothing wrong at Group 3 level. For those who watched the RP forum, they had a few good words for Born To Sea, given it was lame after its last run, but his much respected trainer is running him without a prep race. Got a bit to find, but if the others are not up to scratch it is possible. Furner's Green is the most experienced, and has steadily improved since his 4th behind POWER. Reliable, but may be best at a lower level
Bronterre is very similar to the above, improved as the season progressed, brought that level over into this season behind CASPAR NETSCHER, but does not seem to quite get there at the top level. Whereas the winner above, has been a fairly solid performer. I like him a lot as he always seems to be the underdog who comes good? I wouldn't rule him out of a place, because he is that sort of horse.
That leaves:
CAMELOT - 5/2
I have this rated below 100 for his slowly run Racing Post Trophy win. He won it like a sprinter, yet he is bred for the Derby distance? Did he just have more stamina than his juvenile rivals? Until he has shown his class in a true run race he will not be my selection. He takes FENCING down with him, even though his previous rating was higher.
TOP OFFER - 10/1
For a 2nd fav to be rated below 80 shows that something is not right? A maiden winner, A good maiden winner ... but to date, that is all!
COUP DE VILLE - 99/1
Although he tops the 100 mark with a Salisbury Listed win, he did nothing to add to that over 10f last month. Perhaps the mile will suit him better, but he has got a lot to do to get ahead of those above.
Selections ... well I'll wait until the weather has done its stuff. If it stays dry, then PARISH HALL is the obvious one. If it is very wet, then HERMIVAL and TRUMPET MAJOR ...
Think on ... Have you ever wondered why horse racing is such a difficult game to pick winners on a consistent basis?
Well while I was completing my 2011 database several things became obvious. Apart from the obvious things like horses running over their best trip, with the right under-hoof conditions, and in a grade where they are capable of winning ... These are a given for any form student. No, it is the imponderables on the day itself that can make a mess of all your calculations. Lack of pace, or at least, the wrong pace that suits the selection best, might be again the first thing you have doubts about when checking the draw? But none of these things can have you tearing you hair out as much as this ingredient ....
.... HORSES DO NOT ALWAYS IMPROVE THEIR RATINGS WHEN WINNING ...Or to put it another way, HORSES CAN WIN WITHOUT BEING AT THEIR BEST.
What that simple observation does is opens up so many possibilities ... Did it win despite the way the race was run? Is it actually passed its peak? Did the horse behind/in front improve a lot?
So, when entering calculations before a race, how much of the above can you actually include in your assessment? Very little I would suggest. I repeat, have you ever wondered why horse racing is such a difficult game to pick winners on a consistent basis? ...
On that note, here are my thoughts on Saturday's 2000 Guineas:
Every horse in this race will have to improve on what they have done so far, especially if they want to break into that 120 plus rating that marks them out as a good winner of this race.
In my ratings order:
PARISH HALL - 25/1
POWER - 15.5/1
These two have the least ground to make up on their best performance in the same race. The problem they face is turning up not only as good as they were as two year olds, but at least 7lbs better. Not impossible, but a tough ask. Neither should be troubled by 8f, nor the drying ground.
TRUMPET MAJOR - 12/1
This one improved on my best rating from last year, and got near his OR with his convincing win over C&D last month. More rain might not inconvenience him, and any improvement will see him go close.
FRENCH FIFTEEN - 100/8(old money)
ABTAAL - 9/1
HERMIVAL - 24/1
I have put these three together from their run in the Prix Jebel at the beginning of last month, but their rating is only an estimate from the 4th placed ROCKINANTE. French Fifteen won the race, and is the selection of the 'dosage king', Steve Miller( ... not the 'Gangster of Love', that 'midnight shaker' is somebody else).
Here we have the first of what I alluded to in the intro ...Last season, Abtaal beat French Fifteen by 3lns, now has one improved more than another? Was one primed for that run more than the other? Did the second just not get away with not running to its best? How can you tell. Well I thought that Rockinante was a good yardstick, being a Group 3 winner ... BUT, this race was run over just short of 7f, in a slow time, and he is a stayer (in the making). If he ran anywhere near his mark, then these three have an excellent chance. I say 'three', because Hermival will like the stiffer track and extra furlong, and probably more rain. If it does turn sloppy, he is the one to be on out of the three. He is bred for further, so to stay on, in what was probably a typical 3f sprint, shows he may have the speed for this mile. He won on heavy first time out. Whether Abtaal reverses places having had that run, assuming First Fifteen just got first run on him, and they both improve the same, is anyones, outside of their traner's circle, guess. Me, I think 3f sprints don't cut it at Newmarket?
The next group are all in with a shout of winning a 2nd class Guineas, but might go on to better things later.
CASPAR NETSCHER - 29/1
BRONTERRE - 41/1
BORN TO SEA - 11/1
FURNER'S GREEN - 109/1
The last two both have an estimated rating through other horses, but have done nothing wrong at Group 3 level. For those who watched the RP forum, they had a few good words for Born To Sea, given it was lame after its last run, but his much respected trainer is running him without a prep race. Got a bit to find, but if the others are not up to scratch it is possible. Furner's Green is the most experienced, and has steadily improved since his 4th behind POWER. Reliable, but may be best at a lower level
Bronterre is very similar to the above, improved as the season progressed, brought that level over into this season behind CASPAR NETSCHER, but does not seem to quite get there at the top level. Whereas the winner above, has been a fairly solid performer. I like him a lot as he always seems to be the underdog who comes good? I wouldn't rule him out of a place, because he is that sort of horse.
That leaves:
CAMELOT - 5/2
I have this rated below 100 for his slowly run Racing Post Trophy win. He won it like a sprinter, yet he is bred for the Derby distance? Did he just have more stamina than his juvenile rivals? Until he has shown his class in a true run race he will not be my selection. He takes FENCING down with him, even though his previous rating was higher.
TOP OFFER - 10/1
For a 2nd fav to be rated below 80 shows that something is not right? A maiden winner, A good maiden winner ... but to date, that is all!
COUP DE VILLE - 99/1
Although he tops the 100 mark with a Salisbury Listed win, he did nothing to add to that over 10f last month. Perhaps the mile will suit him better, but he has got a lot to do to get ahead of those above.
Selections ... well I'll wait until the weather has done its stuff. If it stays dry, then PARISH HALL is the obvious one. If it is very wet, then HERMIVAL and TRUMPET MAJOR ...
Think on ... Have you ever wondered why horse racing is such a difficult game to pick winners on a consistent basis?
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