Monterosso gets the top spot for the manner of his win, albeit against lesser but improving horses.
Clearly improving with each race, but re-assessment will probably dictate where he goes next. Probably go for a bit of 'black type' in a Listed event, as he will be high in even a top h'cap after this?
Don't dismiss those behind, Caldercruix and Moose Moran, as this was a big step up in class and they are still learning. However, Class 2 would appear just beyond them for the moment.
MAN OF ACTION was above the the norm for a Class 4 maiden. I have him on 92, so clearly very useful? Mind, the official handicapper has yet to put his stamp on him, so how good that mark is we will have to wait and see.
NOVERRE TO GO also pushed his rating into the hundreds, with an excellent 102, plus 9lbs.
I cannot see a rise in his OR being that much, so should still be competitive on that form.
Rated Race: 4.10 Redcar
This is a very tight h'cap, but a few can be whittled away without a second thought.
First, the easy one ... if it is correct that Forte Del Marmi will not run on too fast ground. Well a 9.7 going stick suggests it is pretty firm? Had a chance, but with no rain forecast, on the 'Out list'
Fujin Dancer has gone up 10lbs for winning a class 5 at Hamilton, recent form not good enough.
Reve de Nuit has shown nothing this season, and looks out of his depth.
Cairnsmore joins the list as he needs to drop a few pounds to be competitive at this level?
Daaweitza has shown a little bit of form, but is probably not quite the force he was, and this needs his best to be in the money here.
That clears the deck a little, but now you come to the tight group who are in with a shout.
Alphabetically they are:
Albaqaa - Level on my figures at 99, so sets the standard. Course winner is a bonus.
Sweet Lightning - only 1lb below his OR at 92. Should improve from that - a player.
Oneofapear - Just held on for a good win, and is plus 5lbs, 92. The sting here is that it was a class 3, and at this level, the difference to class 2 is about 7lbs ... which brings it right back to the level of the above pair? ( I said it was tight?). Should also improve on first run.
Follow The Flag - Failed to win at Ffos Las off this mark, and I have him on 80 for that run, minus 6lbs. However, his win at Newmarket I gave a 90 mark, which is plus 4lbs. Only class 3, but that is good enough on a normal Redcar class 2 event. The downside is, this race has attracted some genuine C2 graders. A plus is a course win?
Changing The Guard - Improving with each race, near his last winning mark, which was a class 2 event last year. Without that he would have been on the 'out list', as a modest c4 82 is not good enough. His profile is progressive, but ... I am not sure the undulations of Redcar will suit?
Rosbay has a similar chance as Oneofapear on their run, except Rosbay has had another run at c4 level, and failed. Does not win that often, whether it is today I think unlikely. Chance of a place
My order of preference, although it could be very easily shuffled, is:
SWEET LIGHTNING
FOLLOW THE FLAG
ONEOFAPEAR
ALBAQAA
A quick look at the odds suggests that Follow The Flag is a good EW at 20/1. However, they have Forte Del Marmi as fav, in case it does run this is the info on it:
Forte Del Marmi is plus 3lbs with a c2 rating of 95 ... not from his win though! That was a minus 11, 80, in lowly class 4. Distant place form is always a little suspect as you do not know if they have just been 'towed along'. Certainly never looked like winning that race, so that, and concerns about the going would still keep him out of my quartet.
That is my analysis, but with a Rule 4 looming, if Forte is withdrawn, it may pay to wait for a new market?
Best of luck, Gerry
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