First, the history. I have been doing speed ratings nearly 20 years now, but it is only over the last 3 years where I have explored the way of making every rating mean something, whether positive or negative. The mechanics of this I will not be making public, but I hope to prove their uniqueness, as well as be useful tools for you to analyse.
I produce a rating which has assessed whether a horse has run as fast as its Official handicap mark suggests it can. This is not only useful in handicaps, but from my last couple of postings on Timeform radio facebook page regarding the English and Irish Classics, very accurate in non-handicaps too. Handicaps revolve around weight, in non h'caps it is the betting that skews towards the higher Official rating(OR). Clearly, in either sphere, to know whether a horse is living up, or exceeding, that rating is a real bonus.
I also am of the view that 'class will out', but for me that has to be prove before it earns such a reputation. My figures are dependant on the grade they run in ... Blue Jack is a perfect example. He got a really high rating in a C2 handicap, but then went straight up to Group 3, ran well, but then went up another notch and found it too much.
Alas, time constraints at the moment have restricted my ability to write regularly to TFR, but I hope to put up a daily update on best performances, which can be compared with future OR mark.
If that is not too distracting from actually producing the ratings, and these 6 meetings a day are a killer for me, then I will give a full race insight, starting with the Oaks and Derby, and then Royal Ascot.
So future layouts will start with recent good and bad ratings. I will add any runners on the day that could be interesting. If time permits!
I may add a section will be a comment on some aspect of racing that takes my interest ... well it is my blog?
For example, there was a lot of negative messages on the Racing Post website as to how poor Aiden O'Brien's 3yos are this year. I think a trainer of his reputation deserves better. He is known for bringing his horses along steadily so they peak at the right time. I think the very bad weather earlier in the year has clearly affected his string a lot worse than most, simply because he will not rush them. Another 3 weeks of sun on their backs and we will get a whole new picture, starting at Royal Ascot. I am particularly looking forward to seeing Henrythenavigator having an trouble free season, and taking the 'Best Miler' crown, if not horse of the year! Paco Boy fans be warned?
Just my opinion.
I may just open the door on the problems when creating a time-based rating system. Especially now, as it seems every jockey wants to get to the front, slow it down, then make a dash for the line ..... grrrr What happened to good old fashioned true run races!!
Thank you for viewing, I hope you may get some benefit from it, but I am not responsible for your gambling habits, take care.
Gerry
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