Difficult day for us time people, with rain falling most of the day.
BEWITCHED - 109 plus 11lbs on OR. 6f Haydock May 29
That rating comes after the official going was changed, but before I changed the allowance. So it may be value for a shade more. A lot will depend on his re-assessment.
PHILOSOPHERS STONE deserves a mention at a very low level. I rated at only 58, but could be a lot more, being one of the quicker times at Catterick, May 29. Whatever rain fell there it made very little difference, being only marginally slower towards the last 3 races. On my figures at least.
There were two from Beverley that may turn out to be well handicapped, but again, more detailed analysis needed to assess accurately. They were SUMMER DANCER and SHADOWTIME.
There was not an outstanding performance at Newmarket, with SWILLY FERRY getting a plus 7lbs faring best.
Rated race: 5.15 Newmarket
BASLE - 84 pus 7lbs on OR
It is not ideal on two counts; 1, Stepping up a grade - but so are plenty of the others. 2, His rating comes from Ffos Las.
I have been quite impressed with the management of Ffos Las. They have not tried to grab too many meetings, and what slots they have got has attracted a very good standard of horse.
There are a couple of runners who are on the plus side of their OR mark, which does not include the Ryan Moore mount Plume, who I have as minus 4lbs, albeit in this grade. He was beaten quite readily by an only average Miss Zooter in a Fillies only race. Yes, he may well come on for the run, but on my figures he has to give weight to a horse who is rated better than him.
If nothing else, there is more value in the 10/1 on Betfair(currently) for Basle than the even money favourite?
The other two: were Vanilla Loan, plus 2lbs, and the mount of young Buick, and Tom Folan at the bottom. He is a course winner, and is also plus 2lbs because he loses 4lbs of his advantage (I have him on 72) as he is out of the handicap. However, it his win which was over 5f that rules him, out as he seems to struggle at 6f - not to mention he only ran on Friday!
Vanilla Loan I was quite impressed on the last run, having looked well and truly cooked 2f out, but gamely closed to get within 2 lengths of the winner. That is a concern really, as it seemed a pretty hard race?
There are several who have yet to post a decent figure this year, and could well improve to win a relative low class 4 h'cap, by Newmarket standards. I am happy to row in with the proven and progressive BASLE.
I was going to do the 3.30, but there is not much value there?
The Class 2 performer MONTEROSSO is the probable winner for that reason alone. Most of the rest are stepping up 2 grades, so it depends how good they really are?
Moose Moran will give the winner(?) most to do as I could put him in at 92, but only from a class 4 maiden. But like the rest of the field, who will have to improve, or the only view of Monterosso they get, will be his backside in the final furlong ...
Best of luck with all your selections.
Cheers, Gerry
Afterthoughts ...
I only caught the back end of the discussion on RUK preview yesterday, about the going description at Haydock on Friday. I think there were looking at the slow race times. Did nobody bother to check the race grades? The only Class 4 race was a 4 runner affair which rarely produces a fast time. The remainder wee 5 and 6 grades and ran to their capabilities?
To put it in context, here are the averages of the winner's ratings on the last two days :
Friday - 75 (without the two without ratings).
Saturday - 102 (ditto)
I rest my case.
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