It may be putting my head on the block, given the RP comments say 'it is fully exposed ... won a weak maiden, albeit easily', and at a track where few would dare tread in creating standard times at this new course ...
Yes, that is the downside. However, just consider this: The horse has just won easily over 6f in a time that a 90 rated horse could get away with at Brighton - reputed to be the fastest 6f in the world ...(slightly carried away there, but a sub 69secs for 6f is pretty hard to achieve?); Ffos Las is basically a flat track that, admittedly does ride fast; Finally this horse is only rated 74, and with the next one (4th) with a h'cap mark of 44 some 10 lengths back, so at worst it will only go up 6lbs? My guess would be 4lbs ... My rating?
SHEER FORCE - 85 plus 11 on current mark.
Now I know what you form buffs will say ' It has been beaten in handicaps before off lower marks'. Well frankly I am not that bothered about the past. On this day it ran a cracker, over 6f, and what may well prove to be its best trip. Not the 7f and 8f races it has been running over. The last time it ran a decent race was over 6f, in a Class 3 maiden as a 2yo, at Ascot! This horse has ability believe me. If they can find a nice Class 4 h'cap it will be an absolute snip. It has a very shrewd trainer, so keep an eye out for this one.
FIVE STAR JUNIOR was the best at AYR 26 May, putting another 8lbs on a high rating. I now rate this at 97. This was in a Class 3 h'cap, but I guess with a new mark looming they may go up a grade? It has been tried and found wanting in Class 2, so be warned. If nothing else it is in form.
Timeless Elegance from the same card deserves a mention too, as I put that up 11lbs to 75. The same problem here, the options off a new rating will be almost certain to move out of the comfort zone of Class 6 and face tougher rivals in future. Unless it finds a race full of similar upgrades, then that plus 11, which will only be 5 or 6 when re-assessed, will not look so appealing?
NEWCASTLE 8.40:
I have had a look at this race, and the conclusions are;
The bulk of the field are stepping up a grade, and the ones I would not support read as follows.
Bond City 87 - level
Sunrise Safari 86 - minus 3, and not the force he was?
Noodles BB 81 - plus 1
Mullglen 79 - plus 2
Their ratings all came from Class 4 races. The only one that did not is:
DAMIKA 94 - plus 4
Not a confident selection, but it is the best horse in the race.
He has the same capable apprentice on board claiming 3lbs, and the Class 3 rating is worth another 5lbs against these rivals.
There is just a niggling doubt as to whether the selection will follow up its win on this stiffer track, when his best runs have come on flatter tracks?
The alternative is LEONID GLOW.
I have that on a very tasty rating 88, which is 10lbs clear of his OR!
Without Damika in the race he would be may nap of the day. However, he is the Timeform selection, and the odds with the one above now reversed from what I was expecting, so it may be that Damika is the value bet? I believe it is between the pair unless one of those yet to race this season springs a surprise.
CAPE TO RIO looks to be a certainty at Sandown, but anybody could have told you that!
Afterthoughts ...
At some point I will explain why I favour a time-based rating over a form based one. Not that I think that one is necessarily better than the other, it is just that I think my method takes the 'guesswork' out of trying to find out which horse ran to its rating, and build from that. If you have a decent handle on time, then it is much easier to rate.
An example came yesterday in the race won by Burning Thread. They were saying on RUK that Burning Thread would ruin his h'cap mark if he got anywhere near to the better rated horses. Now he has won, the question will it be rated (fairly) on his ability, or on those behind (the short-priced favourite having clipped heels and unshipped its jockey)? How do you assume that the other two were below their best? I have no such problem.
Burning Thread came into the race rated 80, and that is what it ran to on my figures. Unfortunately it will go up and will have to improve a fair bit more if it is to follow up.
Thank you for reading, I hope it helps.
Best of luck.
Cheers, Gerry
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