FINEST RESERVE - 86 plus 11lbs. Newmarket 28th May
Two reasons why this deserves top spot.
1, It was a narrow win, so may not go up too much?
2, On a day when class 5 and 6 races were plentiful, this Newmarket card was the strongest.
Having watched the review, I think any easing in the ground will help in the future because he did not look too happy going into the dip on this pretty firm ground. He did well to reel in the favourite, even though that tied up close home. The pair were clear of a pretty useful field. However, I don't think this one will be out again in the near future as I suspect he will be a little sore?
The competition for top spot goes to 2 horses who ran at Haydock, 28th May. In my rating system I make no concession to 2yo's. They run against the same standard time as the older horses, so they have to be good if they produce the best relative time on the card. These two did that, on what has to be said was a poor card, class-wise, as any of the better courses could put on.
Nevertheless,
REROUTED and the runner up, DORTMUND will be very useful. Rated a provisional 79 and 76, but that could easily be anything up to the high 90's? (Race grade tends to be low on a weak card). Interesting where they go from here.
Final mention to one from Pontefract, who at least put on a decent card by their standards.
HARRIET'S GIRL - 83 plus 10lbs.
Just a modest Class 5 handicapper, but should have a useful advantage when turned out again in a similar event, as I cannot see being too harshly treated? Just a note of caution, her history does not show many back to back wins, but a win in her next 3 runs is highly likely.
29th May rated race: NEWMARKET 3.20
Not an easy race, but I like a challenge?
I will list all the horses that have a chance because their ratings are on or above their OR:
Swilly Ferry
Russian Rock
Gene Autry
Ginger Ted
Excellent Guest
Now all bar Swilly Ferry are going up from their rated race of Class 4 to Class 2 and so are ruled out (by me at least). Take Russian Rock for example - He carried 9st 4 for his win, he now has 8st 7. That is an 11lbs difference, 16lbs if you consider he was on 8st 3 last time. That means virtually every horse above him is of a better calibre than what he beat last time. Class and weight are not the same thing. These Class 2 h'cappers will go at a pace(at the finish) that he could only dream of compared to his last run.
A similar story for the others listed. I am not saying they cannot win, but it is a stiff task if they have not run in this grade before.
Now for the ones I left out. First, a quick word for Above Limits who was very highly tried after his win at Sandown. This represents a drop in grade compared to some of those efforts, but will probably need the run for his new trainer?
These are the ones who are slightly better in than Swilly Ferry
BAGAMOYO - 104 - weight adjusted
JACK MY BOY - 105 - ditto
TAKE TEN - 105 - ditto
Ben Hutton on the RP review of this race thinks Bagamoyo will reverse the order with Jack My Boy, and Ben is only one of a couple of RP tipsters I take note of. He also points out should the rain come, the stands side may well be favoured as in the 1000gns.
For that reason, and the fact that the likely pace in the race is on the low side, so I favour JACK MY BOY to come out on top.
As a saver, I think TAKE TEN has an excellent chance of those drawn high. It was better than its finishing position behind Duchess Dora, and although that did not advertise the form next time, it was still a quick time. Plus the fact that the Johnston horses are now striking form.
Well that is my deduction of the race. They all need luck in running, so if I say it is between these 3, that is not the same as a trifecta certainty! They are unlikely to all get the run of the race.
Best of luck, enjoy.
Cheers,Gerry
Afterthoughts ...
Another reason I like time-based ratings is because they are a constant snapshot of how a race was ON THE DAY!
How many times do you hear commentators say, ' So-and-so must be a good horse the way it beat this winner last time' or 'You can upgrade those ratings on the way those behind have gone on to win' ..... NO! NO! NO!
They were what they were on the day.
Makfi is not suddenly a 10lbs better horse because Canford Cliffs came out and and won the Irish 2000gns. Canford ran to a rating off 115, that is what Makfi beat. I cannot just go chopping of a second of the winner's time because of what goes on later.
Mind you, that is the weakness of 'form-based' ratings - you can get them wrong?
p.s. I now have Canford Cliff on a provisional 124 - still to do the final tweaks to my Curragh standard times.
My little rant over ...bye for now.
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