I am not a fan of having a bet in a race where there are so many 'if's', 'buts' and 'maybe's' involved
Working down the card in betting order, as it stands at the time of writing:
WORKFORCE:
Won the Derby by a big margin, got thrashed by Harbinger next time(there is a good conspiracy theory to be written there??), then came back to win the Arc(... but where would he have finished if Harbinger had been able to run, if you see where I am coming from?). He also got beaten first time out. Oh, let us not forget that he went into the Derby with a rating of 108 - You can take that in one of two ways; he must be special to be able to win on only his fourth start; the Derby form is not that strong?
However, his 'Arc' win comfortably gives him the beating of everything else in the race, so why isn't he odds on? The trainer is desperate to cover himself, or rather the horse's reputation, in case he does get beaten, by shouting out 'He needs this race'. His 'Arc' form says he could come straight out of a field and win, so unless Stoute has any other serious issues with him, then you should pile in on any odds against you can get ... but, and here is the'IF', ... they think he will 25lbs below his best ...
JAN VERMEER:
I was not a fan of this horse last year because he got hopelessly over-hyped after his first, 'visually' impressive, run. The horses he beat were not top drawer, Icon Dream is the only one of note. It was a diabolical time for a Group 3 race. On that basis he was made favourite for the Derby. Not a bad effort to finish 4th? Let me put that into context, he finish so far back that his finishing time was slower than the 85 rated Fortuni who won the next race, a Class 2 h'cap??
He went on to finish 3rd to Cape Blanco, who was beginning to look like a serious horse, and not just the one that beat a half-fit Workforce first time out. Followed that with a 3rd behind the French horse who went on to finish behind Workforce in the 'Arc'.
If you accept what the stable are saying, that he does not truly stay 12f, then the last run was probably his best to date, and he won first time out last season, over this distance ... Then you pile into all the 5/1's you can find ... but he has yet to win a race with real Group horses in it.
ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL:
Nothing so nearly negative in this one's limited history. Won a Group 3 prep for the 2000gns, where he finished a creditable 5th .... then nothing until his reappearance last month. That was a small field 9f race won by top-class h'capper, Ransom Note. Finishing 3rd was no disgrace after such a lay-off. Two questions to answer now; will that bring him back to Group level form; will 10f be his best distance.
If you think yes to both, pile in on all odds better than 5/1 ... but the 'IF' is there ...
CAVALRYMAN:
A whole list of disappointing runs last season, much of which you could think he only did what he could get away with, and not truly enjoying his racing. Now if you or I were training him we would probably look for a modest race a confidence booster to start this season off?
So, 'if' they have sorted out any problems he might have at home, it might explain why he is being pitched in here? It only takes one of the above 3 not to run its race, and at 14/1 plus, you have a good return on a classy each way ... remember, he did finish 3rd to Sea The Stars in the '09 'Arc' ...but he has finish unplaced in all first starts.
AFSARE:
This heads the group who have aspirations to reach a higher level. On last season's form he has the capabilities of winning if all of the above run to their lowest level. Did not impress when finishing last of 6 in its opener though.
SRI PUTRA:
Quite capable of springing a shock results when appearing to have little chance. Indeed, 0.5l 2nd to Twice Over over this course and distance last season is testament to that. Followed that with a good 3rd to Redwood. Highly tried since. Only 2nd in a 3 horse race on reappearance though?
DISTANT MEMORIES:
Sound, front running h'capper trying his luck at this level. He will keep them honest, but unlikely to fend them off at the crucial end ... but if they believe that, he might get a soft lead and who knows ...
POET:
Surprisingly big price for one who performs well at just below top level? Is at least in form, and is the one who might press on when the above starts to falter. Should not be dismissed lightly given the doubts about the rest of them. Stamina not a problem either ... but it does need the others to be below their best.
BLACK SPIRIT:
Like his stable companion above, his main attribute here is that he is in form, but as above, he needs others not to run to their form.
To sum up ..... Just watch the race and be wise after the event on how you really thought it would win!
Have a good day.
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