Now most people will blindly follow the Newmarket 1000gns form as the best on offer. But my figures show it did not rate that highly, and that a horse bred to stay won it tends to lead you to think they went too fast to cope with the strongcross/head wind at the finish?
Yesterday proved that those who got tailed off at Newmarket did not do themselves any great harm. I suspect it will be the same today.
Curragh 4.15: MISTY FOR ME
It is top rated as the figures come from the very good Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last year.
It puts LAUGHING LASHES 2nd rated, TOGETHER 3rd rated but only 4th that day. Further back were WILD WIND and Memory, well beaten 5th and 6th.
TOGETHER only ran a moderate race behind Auld Burns, who has been beaten twice since. That over 10f, but dropping back to 8f he ran a much better race at Newmarket, but on my figures he is still a couple of lbs short of his Moyglare run.
The next best rated, some 5lbs behind TOGETHER, is EMIYNA. She beat Lolly For Dolly on the line, BUT, as was the case yesterday, Lolly For Dolly is about a stone below her best on fast ground, which is why her rating is only modest.
BANIMPIRE I do not have a rating for directly, but if I use Lolly For Dolly as a peg to hang some figures on it goes like this: LFD won on heavy ground and got very good figures. Taking that figure back a month when LFD won in soft, BANIMPIRE was a 2l 3rd. which would put her 3lbs above TOGETHER for this race. That assumes that neither were that good first time out, but have improved.
Incidently, Emulous was well behind Banimpire in that race, but beat Lolly For Dolly on fast ground yesterday ... making my point of how much below she runs on fast ground?
Back to BANIMPIRE. She has run in Listed and Group races since, and won all three. All over 9f plus though, and not winning by much. If it comes to a battle she would the one to be on. I just think this race will be just a be too quick for her. She only beat WILD WIND a neck and has and Official Rating of 104, which is not really high enough for a prospective Group 1 winner?
So, it is MISTY FOR ME to win, and win it well. Unless anything else improves dramatically, I think Newmarket came a little too early and all will be forgotten after today.
Just a footnote on Roderick O'Connor yesterday. My 3lbs difference was pretty near spot on, so I redid the figures for the 2000gns by inserting Roderick O'Connor in ahead of Dubai Gold by the same margin, just for my own amusement of course, by supposing they both came from the back. The figures were:
Frankel - 131
Roderick O'Connor - 120
I shall be interested how they did yesterday when I do my rating, but it seemed a sound enough pace to produce something better? Keiren Fallon said in the Weekender the other week that O'Brien junior was a VERY good jockey, and I think he proved him right with a ride Johnny Murtagh would have been proud of ... ?
Talking of the Weekender, I wonder if Tom Seagal will take back the things he said about the Guineas being sub-standard? Oh, I forgot ... they were unfit weren't they???
What makes me laugh on the subject of Frankel is they seem to think he will be ridden the same way again. I swear I saw a 'WTF' moment on Henry Cecil's face when Queally was debriefing him after the race .... What he really Cecil was thinking was ... 'When I said go and do your own thing and not worry about the pacemaker, I did not mean storm off like a bee-stung cheetah!'
Next time, he will be ridden up with the pace, but not quite so freely, and then when he does do a couple of 11second furlongs he will still have plenty left.
I hear what people say that Canford Cliffs will be able to live with his pace, and still produce a finishing burst. Sorry, NO! Only Sole Power could have live with Frankel's pace in the Guineas.
The thing is, will Canford Cliffs be able to find two bursts of speed if my(and Henry Cecil's) above riding instructions are carried out successfully, because that is what he will have to do.
I think Frankel is a phenomenon. I just wish people would stop using 'freak' because they cannot spell phenomenon!!
Have a good day.
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