MISTY FOR ME: Late entry into this market on the back of the win in the Irish 1000gns. Time for that was pretty good, and the rating sends it to the top of the list. Despite all the money, this is not certain to appreciate an extra 4 furlongs. A run in the Newmarket Guineas might be considered as a good prep, but this is too close to the real thing to apply that logic. Nor was it high in the market prior to this success. Part of that is doubts over the dam -sire, Storm Cat, for whilst the sire Galileo will add stamina to the pedigree, the former is a big doubt. If she runs, handles the track, stays, then she is the one to beat, Too many 'ifs' there not to look elsewhere though?
TOGETHER: Clearly, as runner-up to the above, is not far behind on ratings. However, this remarkably consistent filly has had a busy campaign already, I think this is a likely non-runner.
Stamina doubts similar to above, and as the stable has accepted her half-sister, Jan Vermeer, has a 10f limit, it would appear a wise decision. She deserves a big prize just for her willingness to run her race, despite tactics, opposition, or conditions. Admirable filly.
LAUGHING LASHES: Not bred to stay. Improving filly at 8f though. Running at Epsom might ruin her chances of a good win at that trip, so no surprise if this comes out too.
BLUE BUNTING: On current rating she would be at the head of the second tier. But that is only have the story. Entered the English 1000gns as an outsider, using it as a prep for this race. Bonus upon bonus, she wins by out-staying her rivals who probably went too quick against a stiff cross/head wind. The question is, how much will she improve for the step up in trip ...8lbs, 10lbs, 12lbs, more than 12lbs?? Even the minimum quoted there puts her bang up there with the doubtful stayers. Anything else makes her the one to beat.
CHRYSANTHEMUM: Not quite there on ratings, but her comeback run went much as expected for a horse expected to stay more than 8f. She is interesting because she has improved with each run, so the step up in trip could well see her in a better light. Her sire, Danehill, does produce some good stayers, and her dam-sire, Sadlers Wells, is a definite plus on that front. She is one for the shortlist if the stable are happy for her to run. Time may not be on her side though. She has a Group 3 entry at Cork a week later, which leaves her options for the Pretty Polly over 10f, or the Irish Oaks in July. I am not trying to second guess her trainer here, but to have a first run only 16 days before a major test might be pushing it? Snow Fairy did a similar thing last year, but she won her prep, although not a Group 1, so it is possible. With the all clear she will be in the shake up I think.
HAVANT: No serious stamina doubts in this ones pedigree. More was expected of her at Newmarket, but if there are no health issues, she should build on her excellent win in a Group 3 as a 2yo. She pulled hard in that 1000gns, and with the strong wind such a factor, not a total surprise that she had little left at the finish. Expecting the extra distance will bring out a big improvement, providing she settles and copes with the proceedings, she will be a major player.
We come next to those who's rating fall below 100, and therefore have to improve the most. Listed in descending order, comments at the end:
BIBLE BELT = WONDER OF WONDERS
ZAIN AL BOLDAN
SHOW RAINBOW
BLAISE CHORUS = LOOK AT ME
BEATRICE AURORE
DANCING RAIN = IZZI TOP = FORK HANDLES
CHARLESTONE LADY
It is not wise to say these are without a chance in hell, but the further down the list the truer that statement might be!
BIBLE BELT: Yet to run this season, but rating from her 3rd to Chrysanthemum. Outside place chance.
WONDER OF WONDERS: Looked very good at Chester, but the overall time was slow due to the tactical nature of the race. The big question would she repeat that in a strongly run race? No stamina doubts. The best of this category, but some big questions to answer?
ZAIN AL BOLDAN: Won a so-so Listed race very well. Big rise in class, although the course should hold no fears. Bit of an unknown quantity, but will probably find this a bit hot?
SHOW RAINBOW: In this list courtesy of a 6f run last time. Interesting because her pedigree says the opposite to sprinting. if she can add that speed to stamina she is a world beater! Logic says 'No' ... but stranger things have happened?
Talking of strange things, BEATRICE AURORE so far down the list? I like her. She is tough, consistent, and will do her best every time. The 'Snow Fairy' legacy has led connections astray I fear. When the latter won at Goodwood she did it in style, last to first, won going away. More importantly, with a rating a stone ahead of BEATRICE AURORE, and was one the top in a very low rated Oaks. Alas, history is unlikely to repeat itself, as this one is nowhere near the top of the tree.
Finally, the unrated ones;
KHAWLAH: Doubts about this one running, fears of going and track. However, on a line through Master of Hounds(who would have an estimated rating 5lbs above the best of these), so this would be very much top of the pile on Meydan running. To out-battle a colt is one thing, but against one considered good enough race for top honours in America is top drawer in anyone's book?
Meydan is not Epsom. Pedigree does not scream 12f either, and from a Selkirk mare you would suspect connections are monitoring the weather for rain clouds, hence the doubt about running.
SIREN'S SONG: This appears the best of the rest, which include an assortment of Balldoyle, lightly raced, possibilities. Stable companion to BIBLE BELT, with a slightly lower profile, and yet to run this season. Not certain to appreciate the trip either.
Summary: Difficult to be sure at this stage, and I may seek an amendment after the 48 hour declarations!
1st - BLUE BUNTING
2nd - HAVANT
3rd - CHRYSANTHEMUM
4th - WONDER OF WONDERS
The following to upset the top order:
KHAWLAH with a run. MISTY FOR ME if she stays. SHOW RAINBOW if she is a phenomenom.
All subject to late withdrawals, naturally.
Have a good day.
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