RODERICK O'CONNOR: His rating comes from his 2nd to Frankel last year. That was 2lbs better than an estimate rating the time before. Alas, that seems to be his peek, as the Guineas was best ignored. Winner of the Irish 2000gns, but on my figures that was below both those performances. I know the way the race was run contributed to the slow run, with a fine winning ride. But there comes the question, would he have won in a true run race?
All probably immaterial, as not likely to run/stay?
CASAMENTO: Would have been my selection, but I am told he is lame and will not run. Even if he starts, any interruption to preparation for such a demanding race is not good.
SEVILLE: Another with a high rating from 2010. Finished 2nd to Carlton House but the time was very poor, consequently the rating is well down. For a well bred stayer this would not have suited him, so did well in the circumstances. But the fact remains, he has a run but nothing to say he has an exceptional chance on that basis.
MASTER OF HOUNDS: Unlikely to run as he is due to race in the USA.
NATIVE KHAN: On the same rating as above, but from his 3rd in the 2000gns. Questions about stamina, but runs like it should suit. Dubai Gold did not let the placed horses form down with his next run. Not surprising given the way the Guineas was run, he did not improve on his first run. Again, the runner up, Libranno did quite well next time, so he has solid form. The question is whether this level of form will be good enough, even with improvement. Certainly one for the short list though.
The next ones are another 5lbs below, so, of those rated, have got to improve at least a stone to have any chance at Epsom.
DUNBOYNE EXPRESS: Not like to run/stay. Breeding suggests it will be struggle at 12f. Occupied similar positions behind Roderick O'Connor and Casamento(2010) and has a similar rating from both.
CARLTON HOUSE: The race at York did not improve its rating. It will have done his learning curve no harm at all. The positives are that he ended 2010 on a rating to progress from, and given a true run race he may well have proved he was well on the way. As it is all you know is that stamina should not be a problem.
TREASURE BEACH: Improved on his best 2yo with a win at Chester. Not a fast run race, which is why he is in this group. However, he is on the up and one you cannot rule out completely.
OCEAN WAR: This won a 3yo Listed contest, and is the last of those with a rating over 100. It does mean that this has got to improve by well over a stone to get involved at Group 1 level
Now for those without a rating:
POUR MOI: The French raider has an impressive last run, and looks the type that might have the required tactical speed and no stamina doubts. If he runs, he is the one to beat.
RECITAL: Much as been made of his head carriage and potential to hang. It is strange for an Irish horse I cannot even make an estimate of his rating, but through Banimpire I would guess he up there in the 116/118 zone. Given he has no stamina worries, he is the danger to the above. A lot will depend on who rides him. Ballydoyle were obviously planning on Kieren Fallon being aboard, but if I were Fallon I would engineer a ban to avoid offending either party(Ed Dunlop/Native Khan being the other) if he wants future rides??
Any horse not mentioned I would be fairly confident they will not win, a place is another matter?
Summary:
1st - POUR MOI
2nd - RECITAL
3rd - SEVILLE
4th - TREASURE BEACH
All subject to the 'With a run'
We shall see ... ?
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