Derby is getting more interesting?

I will do a full amendment to my Derby preview blog after Thurday's 24h decs, but the picture is becoming clearer since that was written.

It also throws up other contenders, including a second French raider Vadamar.

I think Kieren Fallon is on the horse he thinks has the best chance of winning, given his comments post race. I also think he is the best of the Ballydoyle likely runners, providing he handles all that goes with Epsom. And we still have the draw to consider?

At the moment my top choices are there by default, as they are more based on the achieved ratings of the others, but final conclusions will be made on Thursday.

Looking forward to the Oaks decs too. Update on that review after the field and runners are known.

Have a good day.

Zetland Gold Cup

Late blog, but this race is full of possibilities.

Redcar 4.10: ARLEQUIN

Top rated, but from it place last time out. The reason he would not be my selection is because the his OR is close to what I have him on his winning rating. It may be he has improved and he is a 10f specialist. Certainly one to consider.

MERCHANT OF DUBAI: Has the class to win of top-weight. My rating puts him right up there, and there has been some money for him. Luck in running needed, but every chance.

PENDRAGON: Will appreciate any rain, and has a chance.

BIKINI BABE: Has been highly tried, racing in Group races, drops down to h'cap company, and is very much over-priced as the outsider of the field.

Several others could get a mention, but the above would be my short-list.

Have good day.

3.05 HAYDOCK

I am not putting this forward as a betting race, but it is interesting, and the result will be of more interest regards future races.

In current betting order:

VITA NOVA: Unbeaten, and a 6l winner last time out. That was only a Class 3 event, with Shallow Bay 3rd. Personally I cannot see that being favourite here, even with a 10l start? This is a much stronger race, on paper at least as several have questions to answer, so a big improvement is needed. Possible, but the odds are far too short to reflect it real chance.

FERDOOS: 2nd behind Polly's Mark in a Listed race on final start last season, and from a trainer who's horses are going very well. If the latter was running today, then it would have been well up there in the top four. So providing this one can carry on in the same form as it did in the aforementioned race, it has a good chance. Any improvement on that will probably win it. It is a tough ask first time out though.

CRYSTAL CAPELLA: Lightly raced for a 6yo, but very capable. Started last season with a win, a Group 2 in name, but Listed in quality. MYPLACELATER was 2nd and I cannot see a reversal of those positions here. Only other run was in Japan, well beaten by Mastery. It remains to be seen whether she retains her ability of three years ago, but certainly she has run very well first time out.

MEEZNAH: Had three good runs, all producing much the same rating; behind Snow Fairy int the Oaks; behind Midday(and Snow Fairy); behind Eastern Aria over 15f. Ten out of ten for consistency but did not really progress, especially from the promise of her win before the Oaks. The trainer is hoping for better things this season, but my feeling that she just falls short of this level.

NEVER FORGET: Given the doubts expressed in the above, this could easily step in for a place, and on very best form, win. Well beaten by Midday on final start, but for interference would have been closer. Which puts her on a par with MEEZNAH, and that was not her best run. Would prefer it to rain, but with Cumani's horses running well and this flat track is the nearest thing to racing in France, she has an each way squeak.

MYPLACELATER: Good, consistent filly who will run her race. Seems to find it tough at this level to get her head in front. Will try her best, and given those around may fail to give theirs, she has a chance.

PIPETTE: Last race was behind Snow Fairy in the race prior to that one's Oaks success, so has a long lay-off and stern opposition to overcome. Her turn will come later in the year.

PINK SYMPHONY: Talented horse but does not like to be in front, a major flaw for any racehorse. However, on a ratings front, at her best she pretty much tops the list. Has an ideal jockey to coax her to the front on the line ... if she puts her best foot forward and keeps the other three close behind. If there is to be a major upset, she is the most likely to bring it about.

SHIMMERING SURF: Nice name, but out of her depth here unless she has improved dramatically over the winter.

And there you have it, a puzzle to ponder over right up to the photo finish.

Have a good day.

Sandown 7.40

If all these were running at their best it could be considered a top class race ... as it is, the 'Brigadier' would proabably win towing a trotting cart!

I am not a fan of having a bet in a race where there are so many 'if's', 'buts' and 'maybe's' involved

Working down the card in betting order, as it stands at the time of writing:

WORKFORCE:

Won the Derby by a big margin, got thrashed by Harbinger next time(there is a good conspiracy theory to be written there??), then came back to win the Arc(... but where would he have finished if Harbinger had been able to run, if you see where I am coming from?). He also got beaten first time out. Oh, let us not forget that he went into the Derby with a rating of 108 - You can take that in one of two ways; he must be special to be able to win on only his fourth start; the Derby form is not that strong?

However, his 'Arc' win comfortably gives him the beating of everything else in the race, so why isn't he odds on? The trainer is desperate to cover himself, or rather the horse's reputation, in case he does get beaten, by shouting out 'He needs this race'. His 'Arc' form says he could come straight out of a field and win, so unless Stoute has any other serious issues with him, then you should pile in on any odds against you can get ... but, and here is the'IF', ... they think he will 25lbs below his best ...

JAN VERMEER:

I was not a fan of this horse last year because he got hopelessly over-hyped after his first, 'visually' impressive, run. The horses he beat were not top drawer, Icon Dream is the only one of note. It was a diabolical time for a Group 3 race. On that basis he was made favourite for the Derby. Not a bad effort to finish 4th? Let me put that into context, he finish so far back that his finishing time was slower than the 85 rated Fortuni who won the next race, a Class 2 h'cap??

He went on to finish 3rd to Cape Blanco, who was beginning to look like a serious horse, and not just the one that beat a half-fit Workforce first time out. Followed that with a 3rd behind the French horse who went on to finish behind Workforce in the 'Arc'.

If you accept what the stable are saying, that he does not truly stay 12f, then the last run was probably his best to date, and he won first time out last season, over this distance ... Then you pile into all the 5/1's you can find ... but he has yet to win a race with real Group horses in it.

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL:

Nothing so nearly negative in this one's limited history. Won a Group 3 prep for the 2000gns, where he finished a creditable 5th .... then nothing until his reappearance last month. That was a small field 9f race won by top-class h'capper, Ransom Note. Finishing 3rd was no disgrace after such a lay-off. Two questions to answer now; will that bring him back to Group level form; will 10f be his best distance.

If you think yes to both, pile in on all odds better than 5/1 ... but the 'IF' is there ...

CAVALRYMAN:

A whole list of disappointing runs last season, much of which you could think he only did what he could get away with, and not truly enjoying his racing. Now if you or I were training him we would probably look for a modest race a confidence booster to start this season off?

So, 'if' they have sorted out any problems he might have at home, it might explain why he is being pitched in here? It only takes one of the above 3 not to run its race, and at 14/1 plus, you have a good return on a classy each way ... remember, he did finish 3rd to Sea The Stars in the '09 'Arc' ...but he has finish unplaced in all first starts.

AFSARE:

This heads the group who have aspirations to reach a higher level. On last season's form he has the capabilities of winning if all of the above run to their lowest level. Did not impress when finishing last of 6 in its opener though.

SRI PUTRA:

Quite capable of springing a shock results when appearing to have little chance. Indeed, 0.5l 2nd to Twice Over over this course and distance last season is testament to that. Followed that with a good 3rd to Redwood. Highly tried since. Only 2nd in a 3 horse race on reappearance though?

DISTANT MEMORIES:

Sound, front running h'capper trying his luck at this level. He will keep them honest, but unlikely to fend them off at the crucial end ... but if they believe that, he might get a soft lead and who knows ...

POET:

Surprisingly big price for one who performs well at just below top level? Is at least in form, and is the one who might press on when the above starts to falter. Should not be dismissed lightly given the doubts about the rest of them. Stamina not a problem either ... but it does need the others to be below their best.

BLACK SPIRIT:

Like his stable companion above, his main attribute here is that he is in form, but as above, he needs others not to run to their form.

To sum up ..... Just watch the race and be wise after the event on how you really thought it would win!

Have a good day.

OAKS preview ...

Following the format I set for the Derby. Listed in descending order of my ratings, with comments appropriate to requirements of the Epsom race.

MISTY FOR ME: Late entry into this market on the back of the win in the Irish 1000gns. Time for that was pretty good, and the rating sends it to the top of the list. Despite all the money, this is not certain to appreciate an extra 4 furlongs. A run in the Newmarket Guineas might be considered as a good prep, but this is too close to the real thing to apply that logic. Nor was it high in the market prior to this success. Part of that is doubts over the dam -sire, Storm Cat, for whilst the sire Galileo will add stamina to the pedigree, the former is a big doubt. If she runs, handles the track, stays, then she is the one to beat, Too many 'ifs' there not to look elsewhere though?

TOGETHER: Clearly, as runner-up to the above, is not far behind on ratings. However, this remarkably consistent filly has had a busy campaign already, I think this is a likely non-runner.

Stamina doubts similar to above, and as the stable has accepted her half-sister, Jan Vermeer, has a 10f limit, it would appear a wise decision. She deserves a big prize just for her willingness to run her race, despite tactics, opposition, or conditions. Admirable filly.

LAUGHING LASHES: Not bred to stay. Improving filly at 8f though. Running at Epsom might ruin her chances of a good win at that trip, so no surprise if this comes out too.

BLUE BUNTING: On current rating she would be at the head of the second tier. But that is only have the story. Entered the English 1000gns as an outsider, using it as a prep for this race. Bonus upon bonus, she wins by out-staying her rivals who probably went too quick against a stiff cross/head wind. The question is, how much will she improve for the step up in trip ...8lbs, 10lbs, 12lbs, more than 12lbs?? Even the minimum quoted there puts her bang up there with the doubtful stayers. Anything else makes her the one to beat.

CHRYSANTHEMUM: Not quite there on ratings, but her comeback run went much as expected for a horse expected to stay more than 8f. She is interesting because she has improved with each run, so the step up in trip could well see her in a better light. Her sire, Danehill, does produce some good stayers, and her dam-sire, Sadlers Wells, is a definite plus on that front. She is one for the shortlist if the stable are happy for her to run. Time may not be on her side though. She has a Group 3 entry at Cork a week later, which leaves her options for the Pretty Polly over 10f, or the Irish Oaks in July. I am not trying to second guess her trainer here, but to have a first run only 16 days before a major test might be pushing it? Snow Fairy did a similar thing last year, but she won her prep, although not a Group 1, so it is possible. With the all clear she will be in the shake up I think.

HAVANT: No serious stamina doubts in this ones pedigree. More was expected of her at Newmarket, but if there are no health issues, she should build on her excellent win in a Group 3 as a 2yo. She pulled hard in that 1000gns, and with the strong wind such a factor, not a total surprise that she had little left at the finish. Expecting the extra distance will bring out a big improvement, providing she settles and copes with the proceedings, she will be a major player.

We come next to those who's rating fall below 100, and therefore have to improve the most. Listed in descending order, comments at the end:

BIBLE BELT = WONDER OF WONDERS

ZAIN AL BOLDAN

SHOW RAINBOW

BLAISE CHORUS = LOOK AT ME

BEATRICE AURORE

DANCING RAIN = IZZI TOP = FORK HANDLES

CHARLESTONE LADY

It is not wise to say these are without a chance in hell, but the further down the list the truer that statement might be!

BIBLE BELT: Yet to run this season, but rating from her 3rd to Chrysanthemum. Outside place chance.

WONDER OF WONDERS: Looked very good at Chester, but the overall time was slow due to the tactical nature of the race. The big question would she repeat that in a strongly run race? No stamina doubts. The best of this category, but some big questions to answer?

ZAIN AL BOLDAN: Won a so-so Listed race very well. Big rise in class, although the course should hold no fears. Bit of an unknown quantity, but will probably find this a bit hot?

SHOW RAINBOW: In this list courtesy of a 6f run last time. Interesting because her pedigree says the opposite to sprinting. if she can add that speed to stamina she is a world beater! Logic says 'No' ... but stranger things have happened?

Talking of strange things, BEATRICE AURORE so far down the list? I like her. She is tough, consistent, and will do her best every time. The 'Snow Fairy' legacy has led connections astray I fear. When the latter won at Goodwood she did it in style, last to first, won going away. More importantly, with a rating a stone ahead of BEATRICE AURORE, and was one the top in a very low rated Oaks. Alas, history is unlikely to repeat itself, as this one is nowhere near the top of the tree.

Finally, the unrated ones;

KHAWLAH: Doubts about this one running, fears of going and track. However, on a line through Master of Hounds(who would have an estimated rating 5lbs above the best of these), so this would be very much top of the pile on Meydan running. To out-battle a colt is one thing, but against one considered good enough race for top honours in America is top drawer in anyone's book?

Meydan is not Epsom. Pedigree does not scream 12f either, and from a Selkirk mare you would suspect connections are monitoring the weather for rain clouds, hence the doubt about running.

SIREN'S SONG: This appears the best of the rest, which include an assortment of Balldoyle, lightly raced, possibilities. Stable companion to BIBLE BELT, with a slightly lower profile, and yet to run this season. Not certain to appreciate the trip either.

Summary: Difficult to be sure at this stage, and I may seek an amendment after the 48 hour declarations!

1st - BLUE BUNTING

2nd - HAVANT

3rd - CHRYSANTHEMUM

4th - WONDER OF WONDERS

The following to upset the top order:

KHAWLAH with a run. MISTY FOR ME if she stays. SHOW RAINBOW if she is a phenomenom.

All subject to late withdrawals, naturally.

Have a good day.

DERBY preview ...

I will list in my ratings order, and add any comment that may help.

RODERICK O'CONNOR: His rating comes from his 2nd to Frankel last year. That was 2lbs better than an estimate rating the time before. Alas, that seems to be his peek, as the Guineas was best ignored. Winner of the Irish 2000gns, but on my figures that was below both those performances. I know the way the race was run contributed to the slow run, with a fine winning ride. But there comes the question, would he have won in a true run race?

All probably immaterial, as not likely to run/stay?

CASAMENTO: Would have been my selection, but I am told he is lame and will not run. Even if he starts, any interruption to preparation for such a demanding race is not good.

SEVILLE: Another with a high rating from 2010. Finished 2nd to Carlton House but the time was very poor, consequently the rating is well down. For a well bred stayer this would not have suited him, so did well in the circumstances. But the fact remains, he has a run but nothing to say he has an exceptional chance on that basis.

MASTER OF HOUNDS: Unlikely to run as he is due to race in the USA.

NATIVE KHAN: On the same rating as above, but from his 3rd in the 2000gns. Questions about stamina, but runs like it should suit. Dubai Gold did not let the placed horses form down with his next run. Not surprising given the way the Guineas was run, he did not improve on his first run. Again, the runner up, Libranno did quite well next time, so he has solid form. The question is whether this level of form will be good enough, even with improvement. Certainly one for the short list though.

The next ones are another 5lbs below, so, of those rated, have got to improve at least a stone to have any chance at Epsom.

DUNBOYNE EXPRESS: Not like to run/stay. Breeding suggests it will be struggle at 12f. Occupied similar positions behind Roderick O'Connor and Casamento(2010) and has a similar rating from both.

CARLTON HOUSE: The race at York did not improve its rating. It will have done his learning curve no harm at all. The positives are that he ended 2010 on a rating to progress from, and given a true run race he may well have proved he was well on the way. As it is all you know is that stamina should not be a problem.

TREASURE BEACH: Improved on his best 2yo with a win at Chester. Not a fast run race, which is why he is in this group. However, he is on the up and one you cannot rule out completely.

OCEAN WAR: This won a 3yo Listed contest, and is the last of those with a rating over 100. It does mean that this has got to improve by well over a stone to get involved at Group 1 level

Now for those without a rating:

POUR MOI: The French raider has an impressive last run, and looks the type that might have the required tactical speed and no stamina doubts. If he runs, he is the one to beat.

RECITAL: Much as been made of his head carriage and potential to hang. It is strange for an Irish horse I cannot even make an estimate of his rating, but through Banimpire I would guess he up there in the 116/118 zone. Given he has no stamina worries, he is the danger to the above. A lot will depend on who rides him. Ballydoyle were obviously planning on Kieren Fallon being aboard, but if I were Fallon I would engineer a ban to avoid offending either party(Ed Dunlop/Native Khan being the other) if he wants future rides??

Any horse not mentioned I would be fairly confident they will not win, a place is another matter?

Summary:

1st - POUR MOI

2nd - RECITAL

3rd - SEVILLE

4th - TREASURE BEACH

All subject to the 'With a run'

We shall see ... ?

Ripon 3.40

This is the Class 3 event of the day

Ripon 3.40: BOWMAKER

Top-rated but is stepping up in class and distance. It is trained by Mark Johnston so you never know, it could just do it.

SUITS ME is next, but is possibly better at 10f? It has improved on his last two turf runs, but this is a sharp track and it may just get run out of it.

DUBAI DYNAMO was a good 2nd here last time, but he is getting plenty of racing at the moment -4 runs in 25 days - and could just find him out this time?

SNOW BAY is only 1lb behind the above, and he too has had several runs this season, but a little more spread out than the above. Holding form well, and could go well again.

LORD AERYN you may ask, have I missed him? No, it is that he is 11lbs down on my top rated and the ones above are those in between. The reason for this is simple, he only improved on my ratings by 4lbs with his second run, and yet has been raised 3lbs more by the h'capper? Not only that, they were only Class 4 events and he is going up a grade, a very competitive Grade 3 at that!

GINGER JACK is the only other one I would give a mention. On last season's form in these types of races he is in the mix. Down 3lbs from a good run at Thirsk, and should be fitter for his pipe opener, and at current odds represents a good each way bet. Although, from the above you will see there are more than 3 horses capable of filling those positions, and not to mention a springer from outside the ones above.

Have a good day.

Monday, Monday ..

Only a couple of races higher than Class 4 - out of 26!?!

Leicester 4.15: JACQUELINE QUEST

Not a betting proposition, given she will be odds on. With the exception of SADDLERS BEND who ran 2 days ago, none of the others have exceeded their current OR. But as this is not a h'cap, it does not help her either. My next best on ratings is NABAH, and that does not have to improve much to grab the forecast position.

Windsor 7.40: BATED BREATH

Another likely to be a short priced favourite, but it is not quite as clear cut as it may first appear?

He won very well last time, and has a rating for this level. However, he has not always been that consistent, and has failed at this level twice. On the plus side, many of these in a similar position, i.e top-class h'cappers not quite up to this grade. On the downside, there are three who have won/ run well in this grade;

LIBRANNO - this receives the most weight as a 3yo against it elders. Still not recorded anything like his best 2yo figure, but improved last time out.

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER - Lot to do after a long lay off, but if somewhere near his best he would certainly rattle the favourite's cage.

TRIPLE ASPECT - This one shook off any Meydan blues with a fine run behind Delegator. He got a rating which is 7lbs off the top one, but, more importantly he is dropping down 2 grades. Not that consistent, but his last run was most encouraging. At the current odds, my idea of a reasonable bet given there are doubts about most of the field?

Have a good day.

One Classic down ...

Irish 1000gns ...

Now most people will blindly follow the Newmarket 1000gns form as the best on offer. But my figures show it did not rate that highly, and that a horse bred to stay won it tends to lead you to think they went too fast to cope with the strongcross/head wind at the finish?

Yesterday proved that those who got tailed off at Newmarket did not do themselves any great harm. I suspect it will be the same today.

Curragh 4.15: MISTY FOR ME

It is top rated as the figures come from the very good Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last year.

It puts LAUGHING LASHES 2nd rated, TOGETHER 3rd rated but only 4th that day. Further back were WILD WIND and Memory, well beaten 5th and 6th.

TOGETHER only ran a moderate race behind Auld Burns, who has been beaten twice since. That over 10f, but dropping back to 8f he ran a much better race at Newmarket, but on my figures he is still a couple of lbs short of his Moyglare run.

The next best rated, some 5lbs behind TOGETHER, is EMIYNA. She beat Lolly For Dolly on the line, BUT, as was the case yesterday, Lolly For Dolly is about a stone below her best on fast ground, which is why her rating is only modest.

BANIMPIRE I do not have a rating for directly, but if I use Lolly For Dolly as a peg to hang some figures on it goes like this: LFD won on heavy ground and got very good figures. Taking that figure back a month when LFD won in soft, BANIMPIRE was a 2l 3rd. which would put her 3lbs above TOGETHER for this race. That assumes that neither were that good first time out, but have improved.

Incidently, Emulous was well behind Banimpire in that race, but beat Lolly For Dolly on fast ground yesterday ... making my point of how much below she runs on fast ground?

Back to BANIMPIRE. She has run in Listed and Group races since, and won all three. All over 9f plus though, and not winning by much. If it comes to a battle she would the one to be on. I just think this race will be just a be too quick for her. She only beat WILD WIND a neck and has and Official Rating of 104, which is not really high enough for a prospective Group 1 winner?

So, it is MISTY FOR ME to win, and win it well. Unless anything else improves dramatically, I think Newmarket came a little too early and all will be forgotten after today.

Just a footnote on Roderick O'Connor yesterday. My 3lbs difference was pretty near spot on, so I redid the figures for the 2000gns by inserting Roderick O'Connor in ahead of Dubai Gold by the same margin, just for my own amusement of course, by supposing they both came from the back. The figures were:

Frankel - 131

Roderick O'Connor - 120

I shall be interested how they did yesterday when I do my rating, but it seemed a sound enough pace to produce something better? Keiren Fallon said in the Weekender the other week that O'Brien junior was a VERY good jockey, and I think he proved him right with a ride Johnny Murtagh would have been proud of ... ?

Talking of the Weekender, I wonder if Tom Seagal will take back the things he said about the Guineas being sub-standard? Oh, I forgot ... they were unfit weren't they???

What makes me laugh on the subject of Frankel is they seem to think he will be ridden the same way again. I swear I saw a 'WTF' moment on Henry Cecil's face when Queally was debriefing him after the race .... What he really Cecil was thinking was ... 'When I said go and do your own thing and not worry about the pacemaker, I did not mean storm off like a bee-stung cheetah!'

Next time, he will be ridden up with the pace, but not quite so freely, and then when he does do a couple of 11second furlongs he will still have plenty left.

I hear what people say that Canford Cliffs will be able to live with his pace, and still produce a finishing burst. Sorry, NO! Only Sole Power could have live with Frankel's pace in the Guineas.

The thing is, will Canford Cliffs be able to find two bursts of speed if my(and Henry Cecil's) above riding instructions are carried out successfully, because that is what he will have to do.

I think Frankel is a phenomenon. I just wish people would stop using 'freak' because they cannot spell phenomenon!!

Have a good day.

Overload! Overload!

Just a quick one today.

Irish 200gns: Roderic O'Connor

Yes I have heard all the stories that he hasn't grown an inch since last year, nor has he trained on?

But I simply cannot believe that this is the O'Brien No.1 if all that were true.

From last season I have him 3lbs above Dubawi Gold, and both have just enough to win at this grade.

Dunboyne Express would need to find a lot more normally, but this may be the year to do it?

I think the bigger danger may come from Zabarajad, who looked promising on his first run.

PRINCE OF VASA to cause a shock in the opener at Chester.

Have a good day.

Another overloaded Thursday?

Do you think that those who make up this fixture list are stuck in a time-warp when Thursday was almost universally 'Early Closing day' I wonder?

Nothing of great interest for me, given the standard of racing, but two races do tie in the likely fancied horses.

They are:

Haydock 5.35: GOLDTREK and DAHAAM

and

Salisbury 7.40: CAPTAIN JOHN NIXON, DYNAMIC DRIVE and LODIN.

What connects them is the race won by Lovers Causeway at Chester and Mons Calpe winning at Windsor.

The former had DAHAAM 3rd, CAPTAIN JOHN NIXON 5th, and DYNAMIC DRIVE 8th(but at 5/1 note).

The latter had LODIN 2nd and GOLDTREK 3rd.

But to confuse the issue a bit, the Windsor race was the quickest of the day, but of less quality(about 8lbs less on my figures), whereas the Chester race was more competitive, it only produced a reasonable time for the grade but on a high class card.

Furthermore, today's race at Salisbury is weaker, with Captain John Nixon having an OR 0f 83, but is top-weight and top-rated. Whereas the Haydock race has a bigger field and a couple at the top with OR's of 85

Taking an average down as far as Goldtrek = 80 from 11 runners at Haydock, but only 76 from 10 at Salisbury - God, I must be bored with today's racing to spend so much time on a couple of Class 4 events??? And yes, all four races were/are Class4.

So how will it work out? Well there is no guarantee the winner will come from the two mentioned at Haydock, but the higher class would favour DAHAAM in my opinion.Down 1lb too.

Does that then favour the other two from that at Salisbury ... Yes and No. They both come from stables who like to have a flutter, so watch for late market moves regards to them. However, Lodin represents the Cumani/Fallon duo, and is running in similar class as at Windsor with an excellent time figure behind it. Interesting? The winner should come from that trio, but unless there is a real sustained gamble on either of the others, I would stick with LODIN.

Have a good day.

Goodwood - Classic trials?

Return to a bit of class, but only a bit? I cannot see these trials being quite so informative as last year, but they have interest in their own right, albeit below Group 1 level.

Goodwood 2.00: GLEE

It is the only one rated, and got brushed aside rather easily at Windsor. Probably not one of the Hannon team's class acts? In fact the only thing going for it is its experience. One of the newcomers will surely prove too much for her?

Goodwood 2.35: KALAHAAG

I have this just top-rated on its run behind Khor Sheed, which I think is better than anything these have shown to date? They look like Class 4 runners who will no doubt win their share of races. The selection has at least had a go in better company, and this is a drop down of two grades from his opener. Similar pattern to last year when he ran okay first time out then came on to win here. The extra 2f could well bring out more improvement so could run above what the opening odds may suggest?

Goodwood 3.10: POPLIN

I do not think there is another Snow Fairy lurking here? Rating comes from her run behind Art History, but was beaten a fair way and this is a big step up in class. The top-weight BEATRICE AURORE is a good solid yardstick, while DATE WITH DESTINY represents the Zain Al Boldan form and they are the next two rated. So it is a race that could throw up some interest in the Oaks?

Goodwood 3.45: SABORIDO

Top-rated but no great confidence in the ever changing fortunes of stayers this early in the season.

Goodwood 4.20: AULD BURNS and PICTURE EDITOR jointly

Slightly different prospects here. The former comes here after a good win and place, the latter after being 'Frankel-ed' at Newbury. Throw in BADEEL, for whom there seems to be some money for, but only won an okay Class 4 maiden at Nottingham, it becomes a puzzle. Probably comes down to who will be suited by the extra distance? A race to watch and learn methinks.

Goodwood 4.55: MISREPRESENT

Clear on ratings, but half of this big field have no rating, so is poor value as a short price favourite?

Goodwood 5.30: I am sorry I cannot supply a worthwhile rating here ...use a pin!

Have a good day.

LONGCHAMP - French Guineas

Quite a lot of interest in the 4 main races here, starting with:

1.30 Longchamp: GENIUS BEAST.

The only one rated, but I suspect this may be a couple of grades too high at the moment? It will be interest to see how our form stands up, but nothing more than that.

2.08 Longchamp: MAQAASID

This does have a great chance, providing the run at Newmarket has not taken its toll? I rated our 1000gns very much in Group 1 class, and one of the best in recent years. However, the fact remains it was a tough race only 14 days ago. NOVA HAWK does link up with the French form, and was some way behind the selection at Newmarket. However, she may get closer on home soil?

2.45 Longchamp: CAPTAIN DUNNE

In great form, very tough, and will try and be up there all the way. This could set it up for INXILE, the next rated, or indeed the French perennial, MARCHAND D'OR

3.25 Longchamp: WOOTTON BASSETT.

Reports from the stable are that all is well, and if he has progressed from last year then this should be a formality? However we will not be certain of that until he has run this race? It looks a pretty strong field so the winner will be certain to rate highly. It could be a vintage year in the mile division this year?

A couple of interest at RIPON to note.

3.10 Ripon: MISPLACED FORTUNE

This is top-rated after some good placed efforts late last year. Only doubt is the lack of a run?

3.40 Ripon: CHARLIE COOL

I would guess that this race was pencilled in as a possible target some time back? On the same OR as his C/D success, and his two previous runs will have him cherry ripe today. They may have hoped the rain might have reached here, but he handles the firm okay.

Have a good day.

LOCKINGE DAY

It has to be one of the stronger runnings of this Group 1?

3.45 Newbury: CANFORD CLIFFS

Not a bet, but any horse that brought out the best of RVW has to be good in my book. Whilst the latter was still some 10lbs below his very best, it was a glimpse of how good he might have been if things had fallen differently? Today I rely on too things; One, CANFORD CLIFFS is one of the best milers around.Two, the fast ground. That latter might just take the edge off DICK TURPIN second time around? I also think CITYSCAPE could well split the Hannon pair after looking like the last run would bring him on a bit. The field is contains several others, who on their day, could go well. Today is probably their best chance though, given Goldikova and Frankel are waiting in the wings?

1.25 Newbury: Fiorente

Top-rated of a small sample

2.00 Newbury: POLLY'S MARK

Only 1lb ahead of SHIPS BISCUIT though?

2.35 Newbury: NOVELLEN LAD

This is the Scoop 6 buster and loads have chances. The above ran well enough the last time if he is drawn well?

3.10 Newbury: DOMINANT and GENERAL SYNOD joint.

I favour the latter on a betting front, but it will be close as there has been money for the former.

4.20 Newbury: BIARAAFA.

Plenty with ratings, but this age group have the potential to develop at a very quick rate,. He has a sound chance though.

4.55 Newbury: QUENAA

Similar comments to the above, but one not to leave out of placepot calculations?

Have a good day.

YORK ...Day 2

Different feel about today's card methinks?

York 1.30: HAZELRIGG

Not a selection. Too many have ratings from 2010 that they could improve on. A race to watch!

York 2.00: MUSIC SHOW

Love to select her, only 1lb above MIDDAY, and he may be vulnerable first time out. However, she likes firm ground and Newmarket, so no. She will improve on her first run though.

I cannot select MIDDAY either, despite his class. TIMEPIECE still has to improve in this company, and NOURIYA may well run into a place. Another race to watch.

York 2.30: SEVILLE

Clear top-rated. Mr Fallon kindly let the cat out of the bag that this is the Ballydoyle number one. After their winning spell at Chester there is no reason to suppose that this will not strip as fit as Wonder of Wonders? I cannot have World Domination at any price in this company. Impressive he may have been at Newbury, but it was a maiden, and run in the slowest time of all 3 maidens on the card that day. I rate CARLTON HOUSE as the danger, if any, with YASEER possibly keeping WORLD DOMINATION out of the places? Shock! Horror!

I could be wrong of course?

York 3.00: HARRISON GEORGE

Rated on his winning run last year. His draw could be a negative? However I will name a few others who are there or thereabouts;

LIGHT FROM MARS; OFF CHANCE; WANNABE KING; BALCARCE NOV; PINTURA.

The latter ran at Chester last week, and as we have seen already, that can be tough?

Another race to watch.

York 3.35: MARGOT DID

Again only 1lb above NIGHT CARNATION. Too tight to call, apart from anything else that might have improved past them? The trouble is, Margot doesn't very often. She is stepping down from higher company, which gives her the edge here, as Night Carnation is coming out of h'cap grade.

Watch and enjoy.

York 4.10: COME ON BLUE CHIP

No reason why this should not be a selection, as he has a sound rating for this level. The problem is the rest of the field are unknown quantities. I would not like to take a short price in those circumstances.

Watch and look out for future prospects?

York 4.45: SIMONSIDE

I have this one ahead of it's official rating, and it's a course winner, but it is a h'cap over 2m2f, anything can happen?

On that negative summing up I will depart ...

Have a good day!

YORK ...Day one.

I do not have much joy at York as a rule, so my selections have a great chance of winning as I will not be backing them.

York 1.30: Caldercruix.

Rating comes from his Ayr run last year, when Northside Prince ahead of him. Both have EW chances, but I favour TAQLEED on this easier ground.

York 2.00: COMMON TOUCH

SHROPSHIRE looked much improved when 'frankeled' last time out in the Greenham. Drops down to h'cap company today. He could have too much class for these? However, the selection was also much improved and only 2lbs below Shropshire on my ratings and yet it is receiving 14lbs here? I fear the favourite has been over-rated because of his proximity to Frankel?

York 2.30: BAREFOOT LADY

Two things that might stop you taking a short price about this one; It is only 10 days since the 1000gns run, and it is a small field so it might get tactical. That apart she looks well clear of what the rest have shown so far?

York 3.00: DELEGATOR

Not surprisingly not a selection. done all his running at 7f+, so it seems strange to try sprinting now? GENKI hit Group level with his rating last time, and given a similar strongly run race I think he has every chance of repeating his win last time out. I give an EW squeak, on ratings at least, to LADIES ARE FOREVER. Early for 3yo's taking on their seniors, but the allowance here give her a big chance at decent odds?

York 3.35: LOVERS CAUSEWAY

Clear on Chester ratings, but this is a different track?

York 4.10: Not enough rated, I pass on this one.

York 4.45: MIKA MICA

Again, weak top-rated as so many could improve passed this one.

Have a good day ...

Review of Classics

I thought it timely to do a review ahead of this week's York meeting as both the 1000 and 2000gns have some input.

Starting with FRANKEL, who else? I was less keen on the jockey's performances than the stunning win.

I think when Henry Cecil said to Queally ...'go and do your own pace-making ...', he did not mean go and do the first 5f at Group 1 sprinters pace!

I think the comment made after Blue Bunting's Oaks win, when asked about how Casamento was after his run behind Frankel, 'He's fine, but you don't chase a speedster like that (with a stayer)' says much as what I thought at the time!! Hence the change of tactics the next day, successfully, I might add. Not a good 2000gns for Dettori either.

In fact the only two that got it right were the placed pair. Hannon said before the race that they were only racing for second place, and consequently they got it right.

The rest of the field did barely more than a very fast speed gallop, and were not pushed to their limits when they couldn't keep it up. I suspect they will have taken less out of themselves than the winner, and will bounce back when seen again?

There were a couple of comments made in last week's Weekender, which I cannot go along with entirely. Nick Mordin had a long-winded way of saying that Frankel went very slow over the last furlong without mentioning that the placed horses apart, so were the rest of the field. The real question was, if the likes of Csamento, Roderick O'Connor, and Pathfork had been held up would they have got closer than Dubawi Gold and Native Khan? The answer is probably, but we will never know having got there would they have gone on to win? Which is why I think Frankel will be ridden differently next time, giving Queally one more chance to get it right?

The other, more stupid comment in my opinion, was from Mr Pricewise himself. He said it was a poor 2000gns field because the rest were not good enough or not fit enough? The latter part of that gives him cover if the do make the grade later in the season. In my view, I think the jockeys were caught out by the sheer speed that Frankel did without being pressed to do so, that they went much too fast for their own mounts, and having been caught out they did not slaughter their horses in trying for minor honours. Most were allowed to come home in their own time after a hard bit of sprint training. It will not happen again, of that I am sure.

Talking of time. My rating suggests, yes, it was Frankel's best performance, but only by a couple of lbs. The overall time was the quickest per furlong against my standard times of all races, but only 0.02secs faster than Tangerine Trees in the sprint(before any conditions allowance is added).

I find 'Jimbo's' comment the next day, about Frankel being 3.5 stones better than Tangerine Trees on Timeform ratings hard to follow from the above. They carried the same 9st after all. I can only think that they have given Frankel special allowance for going into the cross/head wind as a front runner? Hence their seriously high rating for winning. I might have got closer to their rating had Frankel been held in check until 3f out and put his sprint burst in then and won going away from good horses. The two he beat by (a short looking?) 6 lengths, he was entitled to beat by much further in a sensibly run race?

No knocking his time compared to Blue Bunting, who clocked the best time on the day under similar conditions, but nearly 2 seconds slower than his. Not fair to compare too closely, as the wind may have been stronger or in a slightly different direction on the various days. But from all accounts, it was pretty similar? Blue Bunting did her Oaks claims no harm at all though, as her breeding suggests further will suit better?

More later on the Derby/Oaks trials, after York.

Have a good day ...

Even more Chester ...

Plenty of racing today, and it's only Friday! Fortunately, Ascot and Chester apart, the rest is pretty mundane stuff? Not a fan of Lingfield's mixed Turf and AW either. So having got that off my chest ...

1.45 Chester: LOWTHER and JOSEPH HENRY joint.

Neither are selections because of their respective draws. PINTURA has the next best rating, on 2011 form (I am trying not to go back to last season's ratings for selection wherever possible). He has a good draw, and will be a short price as a result.

2.20 Chester: THE PADDYMAN

I have this clear on my ratings. MAQARAAT has got to do a whole more than he has shown - only 2nd to a horse rated 85, and now stepping up to Group 3 level??? - LAAJOOJ only won a maiden, but win it he did. I think he is the main danger, along with GLEN'S DIAMOND.

2.55 Chester: No meaningful rating for this season.

I am hoping that HARRIS TWEED will run them all into the ground, much as I would like to see ST NICHOLAS ABBEY return to his best. The former I have in my TTF, and I think the O'Brien team would have been hoping for an easier assignment than this. The exploits of H T as a 3yo were staggering,and he can only be stronger this year? He has one style of running over these longer races, and that is to grind them down with a relentless gallop ... fabulous to watch?

3.30 Chester: FACE THE PROBLEM

Not a selection because it is tight with AHTOUG, and they are both short prices.

4.40 Chester: EVERYMANFORHIMSELF

Similar to the first race, top-rated, badly drawn. Next is MR MACATTACK, jointly with SIOUX RISING. The former has a bad draw, the selection does not.

5.10 Chester: ORIENTAL CAVALIER

For once, the selection has a good draw. If there is a danger I would say it will be CAPTAIN JOHN NIXON. That has threatened to before, but the booking of Ryan Moore for Pat Eddery is something to note ... especially if there is money for it.

Have a good day ...

More CHESTER

Following on from yesterday ...

1.15 Chester: CAPTAIN BERTIE

Only joint top-rated, but on this season's form. Good draw balanced by an excessively short price?

The other joint is the top weight SHAFGAAN. He may well get a place if his last run has brought him on?

2.20 Chester: DREAM EATER

Not surprising he is top rated ... he runs in all good races and gets close to top class winners. Winning himself is another matter? Hence not a selection. It will be interesting how the h'cappers do, but it looks like it will be between the two yet to race this season?

2.55 Chester: MADAWI

Not a selection either, as is yet to prove the rating from last year. SLUMBER would be my choice. True, NATHANIEL would have been 4th in this years 2000gns if repeating his 2nd to Frankel from last year. That apart he has got to be a whole lot better here. I am not saying the selection beat much at Epsom, but at least this course might suit? However, his winning time was good. Pace will be the problem here I fear?

4.05 Chester: CLASSIC COLORI.

Repeating much of what I have said about previous top-rated, this one gets his from a middle of the field run behind Ransom Note last year. Nothing much either side of it to match? Next rated is JUTLAND, but you have know just how fit he is, and Mark Johnston's horse are a bit hit and miss in that respect. If there is money for him then he has a very good chance is all I would say.

THIN RED LINE is the danger if he repeats last year's first run. Course experience is a big plus here.

4.40 Chester: SATIN LOVE

Another Johnston runner, but with a hopeless draw? Previous selection BOUNDARIES fares slightly better in that respect, and has a chance if getting back to 2010 level.

5.10 Chester: GRANSTON and TRES CORONAS joint.

I have very few of these rated because this Class 3 event seems to be filled with Class4 horses?

The exception being the top weight NORMAN ORPEN. He at least drops down from a Class 2, where he was drawn on the wrong side at Doncaster. He was fancied that day and has missed a few opportunities since, so comes here fresh. Having done his winning on the AW, he may find this track to his liking, bit like a grassy version of Wolverhampton if you like?

He has a poor draw to overcome, and an extra two furlongs to boot. But if he can cope with those obstacles, he should have the edge on this lot.

Have a good day ...

p.s Yesterday went more or less as I thought. Lily's Angel got the pace and duly won. Fork Handles did get a place. Icon Dream was only inches away from a place. (I'm being selective here, but 5/1 the field was dodgy). Breathless Kiss did finish nearer last, but through no fault of his own .... 'Falasteen is probably the most straight forward ...' duly jinked right at the start and took him out! Colombian was the race fit one, but I still like Tanfeeth in the longer term. The pair 10 lengths clear. The last race was fought out by the only two who were seriously backed. That's Chester for you?

Aah ..CHESTER

I love racing at Chester. This meeting is the most informative, despite the uniqueness of the course, and ratings may not carry across to future races, performances do. So you look for horses who do well without necessarily winning. And the opening day's card should provide plenty of those?

1.45 Chester: LILY'S ANGEL

I do not recommend this as a bet. In fact it could be a jackpot/placepot buster. It is clear top-rated but ...

It has only just done enough to win around two stiff courses. It is drawn okay, so no problem there. I just get the feeling that something with speed may do it on the outside if they go steady early on?

What? I have no idea, as they all look much of a muchness on runs to date.

Mind, if they go quick then Lily's Angel should pick them off and continue her winning ways.

This is what I mean about Chester?

2.15 Chester: MUSHARAKAAT

Again, not a recommended bet, just my top-rated. I have no rating for Wonder of Wonders, I worry about the ground for that one. I think FORKHANDLES could go well (how long will it be before Tommo brings up the Ronnie Barker sketch ...?). Ground no problem. Won first time out. It could be the fly in the ointment?

2.45 Chester: RED CADEAUX

Clear top-rated. Goes well at the track .... but 5/1 where you need so much luck in running does just make you hesitate. Or at least it should?

Case for several who have run well here includes Mamlook(obviously) and Halla San. Overturn, Dirar, and Tastahil are other good reasons to think carefully about 5/1 the field. And, at a big price, Icon Dream could go well?

3.30 Chester: BREATHLESS KISS

Another nightmare of draw and luck in running? Clear top-rated from his last run, where I thought he did really well in a Group 3 race. Has a nice draw, but has a tendency to start slowly. If he does that today he is likely to finish nearer last than first?

On the outside Captain Dunne will no doubt try and get over to the rail as he has blitering early speed. And then there is Moorhouse Lad. He too has good early pace in the 1 draw. Which leaves a whole host of others who may pick up the pieces, of which, FALASTEEN looks the least complicated and shoul be able to hold his place for the dash to the line?

4.15 Chester: TANFEETH

This will be one of the more fascinating races as regards the future. The above and COLUMBIAN come from the last two races at Newbury, and preceded by World Domination's win. You could make a list of a dozen or more to follow from the horses who finished in the top eight of each race and have quite a profitable year?

Anyway, I rated Tanfeeth slightly higher than Columbian, but the latter looks more forward at this moment, so the dual will be interesting? The others look to have to step up quite a bit to their level, but it is possible around here?

4.40 Chester: GOTTANY O'S

Not a selection as all rated horses are below their OR. Time To Work has the most experience, whereas Gawaarib has only raced on the AW. Very tricky.

That sums up Chester. More viewing than betting, but fascinating nevertheless?

Have a good day ...