MONTEROSSO

MONTEROSSO - 105 plus 11lbs

Monterosso gets the top spot for the manner of his win, albeit against lesser but improving horses.

Clearly improving with each race, but re-assessment will probably dictate where he goes next. Probably go for a bit of 'black type' in a Listed event, as he will be high in even a top h'cap after this?

Don't dismiss those behind, Caldercruix and Moose Moran, as this was a big step up in class and they are still learning. However, Class 2 would appear just beyond them for the moment.

MAN OF ACTION was above the the norm for a Class 4 maiden. I have him on 92, so clearly very useful? Mind, the official handicapper has yet to put his stamp on him, so how good that mark is we will have to wait and see.

NOVERRE TO GO also pushed his rating into the hundreds, with an excellent 102, plus 9lbs.

I cannot see a rise in his OR being that much, so should still be competitive on that form.

Rated Race: 4.10 Redcar

This is a very tight h'cap, but a few can be whittled away without a second thought.

First, the easy one ... if it is correct that Forte Del Marmi will not run on too fast ground. Well a 9.7 going stick suggests it is pretty firm? Had a chance, but with no rain forecast, on the 'Out list'

Fujin Dancer has gone up 10lbs for winning a class 5 at Hamilton, recent form not good enough.

Reve de Nuit has shown nothing this season, and looks out of his depth.

Cairnsmore joins the list as he needs to drop a few pounds to be competitive at this level?

Daaweitza has shown a little bit of form, but is probably not quite the force he was, and this needs his best to be in the money here.

That clears the deck a little, but now you come to the tight group who are in with a shout.

Alphabetically they are:

Albaqaa - Level on my figures at 99, so sets the standard. Course winner is a bonus.

Sweet Lightning - only 1lb below his OR at 92. Should improve from that - a player.

Oneofapear - Just held on for a good win, and is plus 5lbs, 92. The sting here is that it was a class 3, and at this level, the difference to class 2 is about 7lbs ... which brings it right back to the level of the above pair? ( I said it was tight?). Should also improve on first run.

Follow The Flag - Failed to win at Ffos Las off this mark, and I have him on 80 for that run, minus 6lbs. However, his win at Newmarket I gave a 90 mark, which is plus 4lbs. Only class 3, but that is good enough on a normal Redcar class 2 event. The downside is, this race has attracted some genuine C2 graders. A plus is a course win?

Changing The Guard - Improving with each race, near his last winning mark, which was a class 2 event last year. Without that he would have been on the 'out list', as a modest c4 82 is not good enough. His profile is progressive, but ... I am not sure the undulations of Redcar will suit?

Rosbay has a similar chance as Oneofapear on their run, except Rosbay has had another run at c4 level, and failed. Does not win that often, whether it is today I think unlikely. Chance of a place

My order of preference, although it could be very easily shuffled, is:

SWEET LIGHTNING

FOLLOW THE FLAG

ONEOFAPEAR

ALBAQAA

A quick look at the odds suggests that Follow The Flag is a good EW at 20/1. However, they have Forte Del Marmi as fav, in case it does run this is the info on it:

Forte Del Marmi is plus 3lbs with a c2 rating of 95 ... not from his win though! That was a minus 11, 80, in lowly class 4. Distant place form is always a little suspect as you do not know if they have just been 'towed along'. Certainly never looked like winning that race, so that, and concerns about the going would still keep him out of my quartet.

That is my analysis, but with a Rule 4 looming, if Forte is withdrawn, it may pay to wait for a new market?

Best of luck, Gerry

BEWITCHED

Note rated race for May 30 follows the best performance spot

Difficult day for us time people, with rain falling most of the day.

BEWITCHED - 109 plus 11lbs on OR. 6f Haydock May 29

That rating comes after the official going was changed, but before I changed the allowance. So it may be value for a shade more. A lot will depend on his re-assessment.

PHILOSOPHERS STONE deserves a mention at a very low level. I rated at only 58, but could be a lot more, being one of the quicker times at Catterick, May 29. Whatever rain fell there it made very little difference, being only marginally slower towards the last 3 races. On my figures at least.

There were two from Beverley that may turn out to be well handicapped, but again, more detailed analysis needed to assess accurately. They were SUMMER DANCER and SHADOWTIME.

There was not an outstanding performance at Newmarket, with SWILLY FERRY getting a plus 7lbs faring best.

Rated race: 5.15 Newmarket

BASLE - 84 pus 7lbs on OR

It is not ideal on two counts; 1, Stepping up a grade - but so are plenty of the others. 2, His rating comes from Ffos Las.

I have been quite impressed with the management of Ffos Las. They have not tried to grab too many meetings, and what slots they have got has attracted a very good standard of horse.

There are a couple of runners who are on the plus side of their OR mark, which does not include the Ryan Moore mount Plume, who I have as minus 4lbs, albeit in this grade. He was beaten quite readily by an only average Miss Zooter in a Fillies only race. Yes, he may well come on for the run, but on my figures he has to give weight to a horse who is rated better than him.

If nothing else, there is more value in the 10/1 on Betfair(currently) for Basle than the even money favourite?

The other two: were Vanilla Loan, plus 2lbs, and the mount of young Buick, and Tom Folan at the bottom. He is a course winner, and is also plus 2lbs because he loses 4lbs of his advantage (I have him on 72) as he is out of the handicap. However, it his win which was over 5f that rules him, out as he seems to struggle at 6f - not to mention he only ran on Friday!

Vanilla Loan I was quite impressed on the last run, having looked well and truly cooked 2f out, but gamely closed to get within 2 lengths of the winner. That is a concern really, as it seemed a pretty hard race?

There are several who have yet to post a decent figure this year, and could well improve to win a relative low class 4 h'cap, by Newmarket standards. I am happy to row in with the proven and progressive BASLE.

I was going to do the 3.30, but there is not much value there?

The Class 2 performer MONTEROSSO is the probable winner for that reason alone. Most of the rest are stepping up 2 grades, so it depends how good they really are?

Moose Moran will give the winner(?) most to do as I could put him in at 92, but only from a class 4 maiden. But like the rest of the field, who will have to improve, or the only view of Monterosso they get, will be his backside in the final furlong ...

Best of luck with all your selections.

Cheers, Gerry

Afterthoughts ...

I only caught the back end of the discussion on RUK preview yesterday, about the going description at Haydock on Friday. I think there were looking at the slow race times. Did nobody bother to check the race grades? The only Class 4 race was a 4 runner affair which rarely produces a fast time. The remainder wee 5 and 6 grades and ran to their capabilities?

To put it in context, here are the averages of the winner's ratings on the last two days :

Friday - 75 (without the two without ratings).

Saturday - 102 (ditto)

I rest my case.

FINEST RESERVE

Note: The rated race of the day, 29th May, is below the horses to follow feature.

FINEST RESERVE - 86 plus 11lbs. Newmarket 28th May

Two reasons why this deserves top spot.

1, It was a narrow win, so may not go up too much?

2, On a day when class 5 and 6 races were plentiful, this Newmarket card was the strongest.

Having watched the review, I think any easing in the ground will help in the future because he did not look too happy going into the dip on this pretty firm ground. He did well to reel in the favourite, even though that tied up close home. The pair were clear of a pretty useful field. However, I don't think this one will be out again in the near future as I suspect he will be a little sore?

The competition for top spot goes to 2 horses who ran at Haydock, 28th May. In my rating system I make no concession to 2yo's. They run against the same standard time as the older horses, so they have to be good if they produce the best relative time on the card. These two did that, on what has to be said was a poor card, class-wise, as any of the better courses could put on.

Nevertheless,

REROUTED and the runner up, DORTMUND will be very useful. Rated a provisional 79 and 76, but that could easily be anything up to the high 90's? (Race grade tends to be low on a weak card). Interesting where they go from here.

Final mention to one from Pontefract, who at least put on a decent card by their standards.

HARRIET'S GIRL - 83 plus 10lbs.

Just a modest Class 5 handicapper, but should have a useful advantage when turned out again in a similar event, as I cannot see being too harshly treated? Just a note of caution, her history does not show many back to back wins, but a win in her next 3 runs is highly likely.

29th May rated race: NEWMARKET 3.20

Not an easy race, but I like a challenge?

I will list all the horses that have a chance because their ratings are on or above their OR:

Swilly Ferry

Russian Rock

Gene Autry

Ginger Ted

Excellent Guest

Now all bar Swilly Ferry are going up from their rated race of Class 4 to Class 2 and so are ruled out (by me at least). Take Russian Rock for example - He carried 9st 4 for his win, he now has 8st 7. That is an 11lbs difference, 16lbs if you consider he was on 8st 3 last time. That means virtually every horse above him is of a better calibre than what he beat last time. Class and weight are not the same thing. These Class 2 h'cappers will go at a pace(at the finish) that he could only dream of compared to his last run.

A similar story for the others listed. I am not saying they cannot win, but it is a stiff task if they have not run in this grade before.

Now for the ones I left out. First, a quick word for Above Limits who was very highly tried after his win at Sandown. This represents a drop in grade compared to some of those efforts, but will probably need the run for his new trainer?

These are the ones who are slightly better in than Swilly Ferry

BAGAMOYO - 104 - weight adjusted

JACK MY BOY - 105 - ditto

TAKE TEN - 105 - ditto

Ben Hutton on the RP review of this race thinks Bagamoyo will reverse the order with Jack My Boy, and Ben is only one of a couple of RP tipsters I take note of. He also points out should the rain come, the stands side may well be favoured as in the 1000gns.

For that reason, and the fact that the likely pace in the race is on the low side, so I favour JACK MY BOY to come out on top.

As a saver, I think TAKE TEN has an excellent chance of those drawn high. It was better than its finishing position behind Duchess Dora, and although that did not advertise the form next time, it was still a quick time. Plus the fact that the Johnston horses are now striking form.

Well that is my deduction of the race. They all need luck in running, so if I say it is between these 3, that is not the same as a trifecta certainty! They are unlikely to all get the run of the race.

Best of luck, enjoy.

Cheers,Gerry

Afterthoughts ...

Another reason I like time-based ratings is because they are a constant snapshot of how a race was ON THE DAY!

How many times do you hear commentators say, ' So-and-so must be a good horse the way it beat this winner last time' or 'You can upgrade those ratings on the way those behind have gone on to win' ..... NO! NO! NO!

They were what they were on the day.

Makfi is not suddenly a 10lbs better horse because Canford Cliffs came out and and won the Irish 2000gns. Canford ran to a rating off 115, that is what Makfi beat. I cannot just go chopping of a second of the winner's time because of what goes on later.

Mind you, that is the weakness of 'form-based' ratings - you can get them wrong?

p.s. I now have Canford Cliff on a provisional 124 - still to do the final tweaks to my Curragh standard times.

My little rant over ...bye for now.

FLORA TREVELYAN

Biggest improver yesterday was undoubtedly;

FLORA TREVELYAN - 104 plus 17!! -Sandown 27 May

Visually impressive, and the time backs it up. Well over a second faster than the previous 3yo Listed race over the same distance.

It being a handicap, those in behind will also have improved figures for those that care to do the calculations, taking into account any weight differences and distance beaten by.

For those who still dabble with the AW racing, personally I don't once the 'turf' horses start mixing it, there was a performance of note:

IF I HAD HIM - 71 plus 15 on current (aw?) rating.

This is a Class 5 AW rating - DO NOT CONFUSE WITH TURF ABILITY!

That said, it was the best on the night, and he clearly handles the polytrack well. Should he return to turf, which he also goes well on, he will be in good form.

Sorry, no ratings today -lack of time.

Afterthoughts ...

Again, no time.

Thank you for reading. Best of luck.

Gerry

SHEER FORCE

SHEER FORCE deserves the top spot from his run at Ffos Las 26 May.

It may be putting my head on the block, given the RP comments say 'it is fully exposed ... won a weak maiden, albeit easily', and at a track where few would dare tread in creating standard times at this new course ...

Yes, that is the downside. However, just consider this: The horse has just won easily over 6f in a time that a 90 rated horse could get away with at Brighton - reputed to be the fastest 6f in the world ...(slightly carried away there, but a sub 69secs for 6f is pretty hard to achieve?); Ffos Las is basically a flat track that, admittedly does ride fast; Finally this horse is only rated 74, and with the next one (4th) with a h'cap mark of 44 some 10 lengths back, so at worst it will only go up 6lbs? My guess would be 4lbs ... My rating?

SHEER FORCE - 85 plus 11 on current mark.

Now I know what you form buffs will say ' It has been beaten in handicaps before off lower marks'. Well frankly I am not that bothered about the past. On this day it ran a cracker, over 6f, and what may well prove to be its best trip. Not the 7f and 8f races it has been running over. The last time it ran a decent race was over 6f, in a Class 3 maiden as a 2yo, at Ascot! This horse has ability believe me. If they can find a nice Class 4 h'cap it will be an absolute snip. It has a very shrewd trainer, so keep an eye out for this one.

FIVE STAR JUNIOR was the best at AYR 26 May, putting another 8lbs on a high rating. I now rate this at 97. This was in a Class 3 h'cap, but I guess with a new mark looming they may go up a grade? It has been tried and found wanting in Class 2, so be warned. If nothing else it is in form.

Timeless Elegance from the same card deserves a mention too, as I put that up 11lbs to 75. The same problem here, the options off a new rating will be almost certain to move out of the comfort zone of Class 6 and face tougher rivals in future. Unless it finds a race full of similar upgrades, then that plus 11, which will only be 5 or 6 when re-assessed, will not look so appealing?

NEWCASTLE 8.40:

I have had a look at this race, and the conclusions are;

The bulk of the field are stepping up a grade, and the ones I would not support read as follows.

Bond City 87 - level

Sunrise Safari 86 - minus 3, and not the force he was?

Noodles BB 81 - plus 1

Mullglen 79 - plus 2

Their ratings all came from Class 4 races. The only one that did not is:

DAMIKA 94 - plus 4

Not a confident selection, but it is the best horse in the race.

He has the same capable apprentice on board claiming 3lbs, and the Class 3 rating is worth another 5lbs against these rivals.

There is just a niggling doubt as to whether the selection will follow up its win on this stiffer track, when his best runs have come on flatter tracks?

The alternative is LEONID GLOW.

I have that on a very tasty rating 88, which is 10lbs clear of his OR!

Without Damika in the race he would be may nap of the day. However, he is the Timeform selection, and the odds with the one above now reversed from what I was expecting, so it may be that Damika is the value bet? I believe it is between the pair unless one of those yet to race this season springs a surprise.

CAPE TO RIO looks to be a certainty at Sandown, but anybody could have told you that!

Afterthoughts ...

At some point I will explain why I favour a time-based rating over a form based one. Not that I think that one is necessarily better than the other, it is just that I think my method takes the 'guesswork' out of trying to find out which horse ran to its rating, and build from that. If you have a decent handle on time, then it is much easier to rate.

An example came yesterday in the race won by Burning Thread. They were saying on RUK that Burning Thread would ruin his h'cap mark if he got anywhere near to the better rated horses. Now he has won, the question will it be rated (fairly) on his ability, or on those behind (the short-priced favourite having clipped heels and unshipped its jockey)? How do you assume that the other two were below their best? I have no such problem.

Burning Thread came into the race rated 80, and that is what it ran to on my figures. Unfortunately it will go up and will have to improve a fair bit more if it is to follow up.

Thank you for reading, I hope it helps.

Best of luck.

Cheers, Gerry

Bay Willow

BAY WILLOW was the best of my ratings on the 24th May, at Leicester. Clearly one of Johnston's better 3yo's with a very sound rating of 87 - See what the OR is for future races, but looks like one to keep an eye on?

CHARLIE COOL continues to improve, now moving up to 91 at Ripon yesterday, 25th May. That was a Class 3 h'cap on changing ground. However, tread carefully if it goes up in grade!

The only time I feel it is okay to use the rating from a lower grade is if the whole field has moved up too. For example, Bay Willow may well tackle a Class 4 3yo h'cap now, which his rating suggests he will do well at that level, but only because others will be in a similar position. Class 3 would be tough, and an all-aged h'cap, even class 4 would be 'iffy' until proved at that level.

I only looked at one race today - 3.15 AYR: Class 5 H'cap

The favourite Cheers For Thea is vulnerable as I only rate at 62 for last win, and in a Class 6.

Top weight Whipma Whopma Gate is on 71, so plus 4, but also Class 6.

Two are unraced, but Ykikamoocow has been racing at this C5 level - possible danger

However, the horse who has its shortcomings, but is clear top rated is

LIGHT DUBAI

I have this on 74 from its C5 second at Warwick - that is plus 10!

The note of caution is because it reads like a one pace horse that is looking for a weak race?

The plus point is K.Fallon takes the ride.

The negatives, apart from the above, it may need soft ground to slow the others up at the finish, and it is still a maiden at 4??

Dangerous to leave out, but at a bigger price, may be worth a chance?

That's all folks, thank you for reading this. Good luck.

Cheers, Gerry

Introduction

Hello fellow racing fans, I am Gerry. I want to quickly explain what I want to include in my blogs, as well as what and why my ratings differ from countless others.

First, the history. I have been doing speed ratings nearly 20 years now, but it is only over the last 3 years where I have explored the way of making every rating mean something, whether positive or negative. The mechanics of this I will not be making public, but I hope to prove their uniqueness, as well as be useful tools for you to analyse.

I produce a rating which has assessed whether a horse has run as fast as its Official handicap mark suggests it can. This is not only useful in handicaps, but from my last couple of postings on Timeform radio facebook page regarding the English and Irish Classics, very accurate in non-handicaps too. Handicaps revolve around weight, in non h'caps it is the betting that skews towards the higher Official rating(OR). Clearly, in either sphere, to know whether a horse is living up, or exceeding, that rating is a real bonus.

I also am of the view that 'class will out', but for me that has to be prove before it earns such a reputation. My figures are dependant on the grade they run in ... Blue Jack is a perfect example. He got a really high rating in a C2 handicap, but then went straight up to Group 3, ran well, but then went up another notch and found it too much.

Alas, time constraints at the moment have restricted my ability to write regularly to TFR, but I hope to put up a daily update on best performances, which can be compared with future OR mark.

If that is not too distracting from actually producing the ratings, and these 6 meetings a day are a killer for me, then I will give a full race insight, starting with the Oaks and Derby, and then Royal Ascot.

So future layouts will start with recent good and bad ratings. I will add any runners on the day that could be interesting. If time permits!

I may add a section will be a comment on some aspect of racing that takes my interest ... well it is my blog?

For example, there was a lot of negative messages on the Racing Post website as to how poor Aiden O'Brien's 3yos are this year. I think a trainer of his reputation deserves better. He is known for bringing his horses along steadily so they peak at the right time. I think the very bad weather earlier in the year has clearly affected his string a lot worse than most, simply because he will not rush them. Another 3 weeks of sun on their backs and we will get a whole new picture, starting at Royal Ascot. I am particularly looking forward to seeing Henrythenavigator having an trouble free season, and taking the 'Best Miler' crown, if not horse of the year! Paco Boy fans be warned?

Just my opinion.

I may just open the door on the problems when creating a time-based rating system. Especially now, as it seems every jockey wants to get to the front, slow it down, then make a dash for the line ..... grrrr What happened to good old fashioned true run races!!

Thank you for viewing, I hope you may get some benefit from it, but I am not responsible for your gambling habits, take care.

Gerry