There is a simple answer to this puzzle, and a more complicated one, and it revolves around DAWN APPROACH, naturally. If he is a genuine middle distance horse of real class then the remainder are running for place money only?
Alternatively, he may not stay the 12f that many think he will, and one or more will run him out of over the last tiring 150yds?
I fall into the latter camp until it is proved otherwise. Yesterday I was firmly against Moth in the Oaks for the same reason. Even the mighty Frankel never attempted to bridge the gap from 8f to 12f as a 3yo? A lot will be made of the winner of the Oaks being by New Approach, but as I pointed out, there was genuine staying pedigree on her dam's side. That is not the case with Dawn Approach..
So to the analysis ..
EPSOM 4.0: 12f Group1 THE DERBY
DAWN APPROACH - Without doubt a top grade horse who has a real high pace that he can maintain long after others cry enough. However, I do think, unlike Frankel to whom he might be compared with, he does not accelerate off that pace. In the 2000gns he had a pacemaker in there to ensure that the early pace was very quick, and kept up to that over the first 5f. It was a pace he could live with, but the others could not. If the field had run their own race the result might have been different, but instead they kept tabs on Dawn Approach, and despite him slowing down over the final 2f, the rest had nothing left to give. It looked impressive, but the overall time was very poor for a Group 1 race, even early in the season.
Dawn Approach will not need a pacemaker in this race because they always go off quickly as they jockey for position on the little right hand turn. Then they climb to the top of the hill, before dropping down to Tattenhan Corner. It is here where I think the race will be won or lost, as I expect DAWN APPROACH to be very handy as they turn into the straight. If he can draw the sting out of the stayers by maintaining this quick tempo and making them make their move too soon, he will very likely last home. But as we saw in the Oaks, a true stayer that can delay its challenge until the front runners start to slow down, will be the one to win going away.
Had it not been for the Godolphin purchase of shares in this horse I do not think Jim Bolger would have considered running him over 12f this term because of the speed he has shown. However, he also has an interest in the stallion prospects so he is not going to air these doubts publicly before the race. O'Brien got it wrong with his miler yesterday, even though there did not appear to be an outstanding rival in the field?
History could repeat itself here.
Current odds 2/1
BATTLE OF MARENGO - He looks to be the main threat from the O'Brien yard, and they look like targeting any stamina doubts with two early pacemakers? I am not sure if he has much of a turn of foot, but he will keep grinding away right to the line. This will be the big test, but barring bad luck in running or failing to handle the course, he will be involved if it is down to a stamina battle.
Current odds 13/2
RULER OF THE WORLD - The second line of attack from the O'Brien stable. I like this horse, but there are some worries. Inexperience to handle the preliminaries? Big horse, will he handle the track? Not least, is he good enough? On the latter point, on my ratings for this season alone, he is only 3lbs behind the favourite, but against lesser opposition. Which means he will not have the comfort of running well within its means before delivering his challenge. He is on the upgrade though, so if he can do a little bit more, worries notwithstanding, he is a serious threat.
Current odds 9/1
OCOVANGO - The first of the unknown quantities. This French horse is following the pattern of Por Moi, the stable's previous winner(who was my selection at the time). He is a different type of horse though. More in the mold of the O'Brien pair, rather than the turn of foot that drew me to Por Moi. There should be no stamina doubts, and the going will not be fast enough to worry him either. The track could be a problem, but he seem okay at non-racing pace the other day. Just how good he is will be answered shortly after 4o'clock, but the trainer has something to compare, so again, likely to be battling away in that final furlong.
Current odds 9/1
CHOPIN - The other unknown quantity. This time a German trained horse. Clearly a top class horse in his homeland, winning both his last race as 2yo over 8f, and his 9f Group 3 'prep' in very impressive style. However, as we often see our Group 2/3 horse take their Group 1 races that level of form has to be eased back a tad. Not to be underestimated though. You only have to think back to Danedream's(edit) win in the King George over Nathaniel, and unlucky not to be able to follow up a second 'Arc win, to know their 'good' horses are very good indeed. If the trainer has any line of form to measure Chopin against that one, he is a danger to all. On first glance at the pedigree it does not scream 12f as an ideal trip. Beneath that though, you have a pretty average dam, out of a top staying family. Add that to speed already shown, if anything is likely to come late and fast it will be this one. J. Spencer is an ideal pilot to deliver, if he is good enough?
Current odds 12/1
MARS - He is the first one with more negatives that positives. Late finishing behind Dawn Run in the 2000gns, is great form, if he were to sticking to a mile. The dam side of his pedigree screams speed, speed speed. 7f rather than 10f could be better, so this 12f is baffling to me. Take yesterday's runner Moth, without the 'up to 10f' dam's pedigree, and you have Mars in a nutshell. Add to that, this race is going to be run to test the favourite's stamina who has already beaten him at 8f. If this horse is in the shake up I will be very, very surprised. But putting my immediate thoughts aside. he has the stamina influence of Galileo, and at some point 10f might be within his compass. Against that his only run as a 2yo was over 7f on the AW, which takes speed, and his Guineas run this season where he may not have handled the dip very well? I know the trainer knows more than I do about this horse, but they got it wrong yesterday ?
Current odds 15/1
LIBERTARIAN - He won the Dante trial at York and looked a worthy winner. The time was not
exceptional, so needs to improve again. Should not have any stamina doubts, but this is a tougher test. I thought Buick only indicatedt she was okay, not special. But if the extra distance suits she is not one you can dismiss completely.
Current odds 17/1
FESTIVE CHEER - Yet another O'Brien runner. Bit of a dark horse compared to the front two in the market. The step up to a Group 2 11f race in France brought about a big improvement, and could well be suited by an extra furlong on that running,, even though the dam side pedigree says not. Whether he will be good enough to take on a true run 12f race at this stage is questionable though?
Current odds 20/1
Now we are into the pace setters;
FLYING THE FLAG - I guess this is the one to take them along at a quick but sensible gallop from the off?
Current odds 150/1
GALILEO ROCK - This one is the stayer, so as they turn into the straight he will take it up just to push Dawn Approach's buttons early on? If he is very good he could break them all??
Current odds 25/1
MIRSAALE - Another front runner, and course winner to boot. Will give his owners a day out in the sun, but has to improve massively to stay out in front at this level.
Current odds 66/1
OCEAN APPLAUSE - Similar comments to the above, without getting to the front. Will need the aid of a suffragette to be involve in anything but a race not to be last.
Summary: No chance. I made that mistake yesterday! I leave it entirely to yourselves to see which odd offers best value. Okay?
Have a good day ...
Friday 31 May 2013
EPSOM: THE OAKS 2013
I will repeat what I said before last week's Irish 1000 Guineas, in that the fillies have found it difficult to blossom into their full potential because of the bad weather early on in the year. Now we are four weeks on from the Newmarket 1000 Guineas, and all the trials done and dusted, they are starting to find their place in the top rankings. Some have more to prove than others, but it shapes like it will be won by a decent staying filly.
So in usual fashion, I will run through them in betting order(odds current to time of writing), to see who brings what to the table.
EPSOM 4.00: 12f Group 1 THE OAKS
SECRET GESTURE - She won the Lingfield trial in impressive fashion, and recorded the best rating on the day, However, there are some niggles that might temper the thinking that this race was all it appeared? For a start, the ratings of horses in behind only match my race grade, as most did not have an official mark, but the well beaten 4th had a OR of 88. With Group one level being 110+, could mean that this favourite did the job, and nothing more? The big question, as that was a 'trial' race, can she improve enough to do the same against fitter, better class horses here? The second problem at Lingfield was the going. From my figures, it appeared the far side of the track was softer than the final 7f, with the straight being the quickest of all. Difficult to get accurate time figures when the gap is as large as it appeared here.?
If nothing else, the race showed the three most important things; She has 'trained on' from her average 2yo days; the distance is no problem, and the recent rain will not inconvenience her.
Worth her current odds of a shade over 3/1?
MOTH - She holds her high position in the market on the strength of her run in the 1000gns, where she missed the break and finished the next 6f as well as any other. Unlike the above, this race was a stone better race than the Lingfield trial, and has been franked by the 2nd going on to win the Irish 1000gns. Ratings are close with the above, much like her odds. However, the big question will remain until after the race, as to whether the step up to 12f will bring out any improvement. I really doubt that it will. Finishing strongly over 8f when held up in the rear, to me says she should get closer to the pace, and a mile is her trip? The breeding is not that encouraging for going over 10f either. Another thing, it was fast going at Newmarket and it brought out her best performance. Even with a drying wind, the going at Epsom will not be fast, so stamina will be a key a factor. Trained by any lesser stable and she would be a 10/1 shot. Improving, yes. Likely winner, no.
Current odds 4/1
LIBER NAUTICUS - There was a lot to like about her York trial win. The way she knuckled down and stayed on well, after being slightly outpaced when they quickened, suggesting that 12f will be fine for her. She was only on her second start there, so big improvement can be expected. Unfortunately, that is where the good news ends. The quality of that small field was 20lbs below Group 1 standard, but even as a Group 3 it was poor. The time was the slowest (relatively speaking) on the card, and the rating only matched that of the Class 4 handicapper who has an OR of 79! Now much of this can be put down to the small field, and her trainer will know what it takes to win a classic. That said, the build up to this race will be something else for this lightly raced filly, and it is a very big ask to show her true potential this time. Not impossible, but a very hard one to pull off?
Current odds 5/1
BANOFFEE- Jockey Kieren Fallon is very sweet on her(excuse the pun), and from her trial at Chester he is entitled to do so. Like the above, she suffers from it being a weak race from the official ratings. The 4th, Elik, was only rated 79, but went on to win a Listed race at Goodwood, but that race did not bring out exceptional time figures either. What Banoffee did show was an amazing turn of foot at the end of the 11f+ race, and we know what Magician did last week to know that can be devastating, especially with the final 150yds at Epsom being uphill? Still has a few lbs to find on the favourite. Having improved 20lbs from her debut run in April, on good to soft, with the follow up on good to firm, and the trip no problem either, although there may be some stamina doubts in a true run race? She has a good a chance as any if she can be close enough after they turn for home. She is another lightly raced horse that has to get through the preliminaries, but Chester is close to the noisy public too, and that experience may help.
Current odds 9/1
SAY - Her best asset is that she is the only one to win over the full 12f. However, that was in a 4 runner field, and as a 1/6 odds on shot tells you all you need to know about the opposition? It was a god awful time to boot. I am sure A O'Brien can see some merit in running her, but I cannot see her being used as a pacemaker for her stamina doubt laden stable companion? Possibly up front to slow it up for more of a sprint finish? Or maybe, just to stay out the back/press on from the front and see where her stamina takes her? The latter would be running her on HER merits, and if her trainer think she is a top staying filly in the making, who knows, it could be MOTH who is there to set it up for her?? Watch for late betting moves?
Current odds 11/1 ... but possibly go bigger, then shorten up in the last 15 minutes before the off?
TALENT - She is the last of the more obvious potential winners, having won a Listed 10f race at Newmarket on 1000gns day. The time was not great, but saw the trip out well. She looks the type to improve for the step up to 12f, and on breeding too. Unlike the Derby favourite, she has a lot of stamina on the dam side, to balance the speed of her sire New Approach. So despite needing a huge improvement on what she has shown so far, with many doubts surrounding all of the above, she could find herself battling out the finish.
The remainder, whilst not without a chance of running into a place, or even providing a shock winner, they do have to over turn form with some of the above.
MADAME DEFARGE was preferred in the betting to TALENT last time, and had a poor run in the race. However, breeding indicates the step up in trip may improve her conquerer more so.
Current odds 25/1
GERTRUDE VERSED has to reverse placings with BANOFFEE, which looks a tough task on that running.
Current odds 40/1
ROZ she has an even bigger task to turn around 13 lengths with MOTH. However, the plus points are; she was having her first run of the season in a Group 1 race, over 8f, whereas this 12f is more likely to suit, and her 2yo form is probably the best on show. The negative is, her Newmarket run did nothing to say she has trained to the same level. That is of running the winter ante-post favourite for the 1000gns, Certify (currently banned from racing), to a 4.5l second in the top Group 1 2yo contest on her final start. But remembering the preface to this, and how fillies in particular have suffered with the bad weather, this extra month and a bit of sunshine could work wonders for this one. If any horse could run into a place at a huge price, then she could well be the one?
Current price 50/1
MISS YOU TOO has it find with ROZ on 2yo form, and SECRET GESTURE on her last run. That will not happen if both run to their best. But stranger things can happen. The trip and going will be no problem, it is simply the case whether she is good enough?
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: It is a more open race that the odds suggest. 7/1 the field is more like it, given there are many on a similar level of known form. If I were a layer of bets, then MOTH would be the one I would take on.
The danger to all is if the race is run at a solid pace throughout, SAY has the best stamina requirements to finish it off ... only AO'B knows just how good she is??
ROZ represents good value for a little EW punt. She must be showing something to be kept in the race? Not only that, they have booked Johnny Murtagh ..mmmmn
BANOFFEE is the only one of the short price ones to have a decent price. High enough for EW but she is more likely to win or bust?
You choose, I am only putting the information in front of you ...
Have a good day ...
So in usual fashion, I will run through them in betting order(odds current to time of writing), to see who brings what to the table.
EPSOM 4.00: 12f Group 1 THE OAKS
SECRET GESTURE - She won the Lingfield trial in impressive fashion, and recorded the best rating on the day, However, there are some niggles that might temper the thinking that this race was all it appeared? For a start, the ratings of horses in behind only match my race grade, as most did not have an official mark, but the well beaten 4th had a OR of 88. With Group one level being 110+, could mean that this favourite did the job, and nothing more? The big question, as that was a 'trial' race, can she improve enough to do the same against fitter, better class horses here? The second problem at Lingfield was the going. From my figures, it appeared the far side of the track was softer than the final 7f, with the straight being the quickest of all. Difficult to get accurate time figures when the gap is as large as it appeared here.?
If nothing else, the race showed the three most important things; She has 'trained on' from her average 2yo days; the distance is no problem, and the recent rain will not inconvenience her.
Worth her current odds of a shade over 3/1?
MOTH - She holds her high position in the market on the strength of her run in the 1000gns, where she missed the break and finished the next 6f as well as any other. Unlike the above, this race was a stone better race than the Lingfield trial, and has been franked by the 2nd going on to win the Irish 1000gns. Ratings are close with the above, much like her odds. However, the big question will remain until after the race, as to whether the step up to 12f will bring out any improvement. I really doubt that it will. Finishing strongly over 8f when held up in the rear, to me says she should get closer to the pace, and a mile is her trip? The breeding is not that encouraging for going over 10f either. Another thing, it was fast going at Newmarket and it brought out her best performance. Even with a drying wind, the going at Epsom will not be fast, so stamina will be a key a factor. Trained by any lesser stable and she would be a 10/1 shot. Improving, yes. Likely winner, no.
Current odds 4/1
LIBER NAUTICUS - There was a lot to like about her York trial win. The way she knuckled down and stayed on well, after being slightly outpaced when they quickened, suggesting that 12f will be fine for her. She was only on her second start there, so big improvement can be expected. Unfortunately, that is where the good news ends. The quality of that small field was 20lbs below Group 1 standard, but even as a Group 3 it was poor. The time was the slowest (relatively speaking) on the card, and the rating only matched that of the Class 4 handicapper who has an OR of 79! Now much of this can be put down to the small field, and her trainer will know what it takes to win a classic. That said, the build up to this race will be something else for this lightly raced filly, and it is a very big ask to show her true potential this time. Not impossible, but a very hard one to pull off?
Current odds 5/1
BANOFFEE- Jockey Kieren Fallon is very sweet on her(excuse the pun), and from her trial at Chester he is entitled to do so. Like the above, she suffers from it being a weak race from the official ratings. The 4th, Elik, was only rated 79, but went on to win a Listed race at Goodwood, but that race did not bring out exceptional time figures either. What Banoffee did show was an amazing turn of foot at the end of the 11f+ race, and we know what Magician did last week to know that can be devastating, especially with the final 150yds at Epsom being uphill? Still has a few lbs to find on the favourite. Having improved 20lbs from her debut run in April, on good to soft, with the follow up on good to firm, and the trip no problem either, although there may be some stamina doubts in a true run race? She has a good a chance as any if she can be close enough after they turn for home. She is another lightly raced horse that has to get through the preliminaries, but Chester is close to the noisy public too, and that experience may help.
Current odds 9/1
SAY - Her best asset is that she is the only one to win over the full 12f. However, that was in a 4 runner field, and as a 1/6 odds on shot tells you all you need to know about the opposition? It was a god awful time to boot. I am sure A O'Brien can see some merit in running her, but I cannot see her being used as a pacemaker for her stamina doubt laden stable companion? Possibly up front to slow it up for more of a sprint finish? Or maybe, just to stay out the back/press on from the front and see where her stamina takes her? The latter would be running her on HER merits, and if her trainer think she is a top staying filly in the making, who knows, it could be MOTH who is there to set it up for her?? Watch for late betting moves?
Current odds 11/1 ... but possibly go bigger, then shorten up in the last 15 minutes before the off?
TALENT - She is the last of the more obvious potential winners, having won a Listed 10f race at Newmarket on 1000gns day. The time was not great, but saw the trip out well. She looks the type to improve for the step up to 12f, and on breeding too. Unlike the Derby favourite, she has a lot of stamina on the dam side, to balance the speed of her sire New Approach. So despite needing a huge improvement on what she has shown so far, with many doubts surrounding all of the above, she could find herself battling out the finish.
The remainder, whilst not without a chance of running into a place, or even providing a shock winner, they do have to over turn form with some of the above.
MADAME DEFARGE was preferred in the betting to TALENT last time, and had a poor run in the race. However, breeding indicates the step up in trip may improve her conquerer more so.
Current odds 25/1
GERTRUDE VERSED has to reverse placings with BANOFFEE, which looks a tough task on that running.
Current odds 40/1
ROZ she has an even bigger task to turn around 13 lengths with MOTH. However, the plus points are; she was having her first run of the season in a Group 1 race, over 8f, whereas this 12f is more likely to suit, and her 2yo form is probably the best on show. The negative is, her Newmarket run did nothing to say she has trained to the same level. That is of running the winter ante-post favourite for the 1000gns, Certify (currently banned from racing), to a 4.5l second in the top Group 1 2yo contest on her final start. But remembering the preface to this, and how fillies in particular have suffered with the bad weather, this extra month and a bit of sunshine could work wonders for this one. If any horse could run into a place at a huge price, then she could well be the one?
Current price 50/1
MISS YOU TOO has it find with ROZ on 2yo form, and SECRET GESTURE on her last run. That will not happen if both run to their best. But stranger things can happen. The trip and going will be no problem, it is simply the case whether she is good enough?
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: It is a more open race that the odds suggest. 7/1 the field is more like it, given there are many on a similar level of known form. If I were a layer of bets, then MOTH would be the one I would take on.
The danger to all is if the race is run at a solid pace throughout, SAY has the best stamina requirements to finish it off ... only AO'B knows just how good she is??
ROZ represents good value for a little EW punt. She must be showing something to be kept in the race? Not only that, they have booked Johnny Murtagh ..mmmmn
BANOFFEE is the only one of the short price ones to have a decent price. High enough for EW but she is more likely to win or bust?
You choose, I am only putting the information in front of you ...
Have a good day ...
Sunday 26 May 2013
IRISH 1000 GUINEAS 2013
To be honest, there is not a lot to say about this race, because all bar one has a below grade level rating.
JUST THE JUDGE is the exception, but only just. The Newmarket 1000gns is a strange race to work out. The overall time was not exceptional, yet it was the second fastest, relatively, on the card. Yet the winner did not improve on her rating?
I think the cold spring has has a big effect on last season's 2yo's. Some have shown some early potential but not really at Group 1 level. So, like yesterday with the colts we are left to guess just how much the various stables know what further is to come? Most need to improve 10lbs to 20lbs to be considered real top class.
That said, Just The Judge will handle the faster ground, which may be a big doubt with many on runs last season's very wet surfaces? She also stays a mile well, but like yesterday, at 4/1 it is taking a lot on trust that she has improved beyond what the others have.
The following all have the same thing in common, in that they have shown something to work on, either this season or last, but still have to improve up to a stone just to get to the favourite's level?
BIG BREAK - Last season, no prep.
MAUREEN - Behind the favourite, on second run, which matched her earlier win.
SNOW QUEEN - Improved to finished 5th in the 1000gns, just ahead of the above.
VIZTORIA - Won the Group 3 trial, beating BUNAIRGEAD, who ties in with the above's first run.
JUST PRETENDING - Did nothing special in winning her Group 3 trial, but the stable know more??
WHAT STYLE just ahead of SNOW QUEEN on her reappearance. Similar chance, bigger odds?
HANKY PANKY - She won at Naas over 8f, but those behind were only h'cappers.
HARASIYA - I am interested in this horse for one reason. I recall she won a Group 3 last year in a good time, on a day when some of the top older horse were running. If you can do that wit a relatively quick time for distance, it usually means it was special. The only thing is she did not follow it up. She was due to have a prep, but missed it. So there is something of a doubt as to how ready she will be, but on best form with improvement for age, she is a lively outsider at 17/1 in a place
She is as far down the betting order I need to go. Not that the others cannot win, but mostly have over tun form will all the above.
It is the favourites to lose on known form, but the unknown is the danger?
Have a good day ...
JUST THE JUDGE is the exception, but only just. The Newmarket 1000gns is a strange race to work out. The overall time was not exceptional, yet it was the second fastest, relatively, on the card. Yet the winner did not improve on her rating?
I think the cold spring has has a big effect on last season's 2yo's. Some have shown some early potential but not really at Group 1 level. So, like yesterday with the colts we are left to guess just how much the various stables know what further is to come? Most need to improve 10lbs to 20lbs to be considered real top class.
That said, Just The Judge will handle the faster ground, which may be a big doubt with many on runs last season's very wet surfaces? She also stays a mile well, but like yesterday, at 4/1 it is taking a lot on trust that she has improved beyond what the others have.
The following all have the same thing in common, in that they have shown something to work on, either this season or last, but still have to improve up to a stone just to get to the favourite's level?
BIG BREAK - Last season, no prep.
MAUREEN - Behind the favourite, on second run, which matched her earlier win.
SNOW QUEEN - Improved to finished 5th in the 1000gns, just ahead of the above.
VIZTORIA - Won the Group 3 trial, beating BUNAIRGEAD, who ties in with the above's first run.
JUST PRETENDING - Did nothing special in winning her Group 3 trial, but the stable know more??
WHAT STYLE just ahead of SNOW QUEEN on her reappearance. Similar chance, bigger odds?
HANKY PANKY - She won at Naas over 8f, but those behind were only h'cappers.
HARASIYA - I am interested in this horse for one reason. I recall she won a Group 3 last year in a good time, on a day when some of the top older horse were running. If you can do that wit a relatively quick time for distance, it usually means it was special. The only thing is she did not follow it up. She was due to have a prep, but missed it. So there is something of a doubt as to how ready she will be, but on best form with improvement for age, she is a lively outsider at 17/1 in a place
She is as far down the betting order I need to go. Not that the others cannot win, but mostly have over tun form will all the above.
It is the favourites to lose on known form, but the unknown is the danger?
Have a good day ...
Saturday 25 May 2013
IRISH 2000 GUINEAS 2013
Well at first glance there is no disguising that this is a B-divison Classic race. However, as with all 3yo's at this time of year, there are open to improvement.
Here, in betting order, is how I rate them:
Curragh 3.20; 8f 2000gns Group 1
MAGICIAN - Nothing spectacular as a 2yo. Won an average maiden that might give him a chance in a Class 3 handicap this season. Instead turns up in a Classic trial at Chester and wins with an impressive piece of acceleration, so has clearly improved. Just as well, as it only moves him up into Class 2 h'cap range?
Clearly, has to continue to show improvement just to overtake the worst of this field. Odds; 3/1
VAN DER NEER - Without doubt, this has a clear chance on his 3rd in the Newmarket 2000gns. It was much stronger race and had George Vancouver further behind. However, time wise, this race was not that good. The fast early pace meant the final 2 furlongs were so slow(16f race sectional time in fact) which confuses the picture for the race as a whole. Why were the horses not close to the pacemaker not able to finish better? Even Dawn Approach, the winner, did not quicken, but was just able to go faster than the rest? There were a few exceptions, Mars, who goes for the Derby, apparently was one of the quickest over the final 6f, and was staying on at the end. It is possible that the pack behind the pacemaker just went too quick too early? It is pure speculation on my part, but if they had set a more sensible early pace, and left Dawn Approach to chase his pacemaker, a good number of the field might have swallowed both of them up?
That is as maybe, but it still leaves VDN on a vulnerable mark to anything with real class, unless he too can put that right under a more even gallop? Odds; 9/2
TRADING LEATHER - He ran in the 10f Derby trial at York and seemed to do it quite good for a first run. One wonders why they drop him back to 8f, but it is a Classic, and although ruling him out of the Epsom Derby, it might decide what Royal Ascot target to go for, as he may be a horse caught between two distances? His rating from that is only a couple of lbs behind the above(and 10lbs ahead of the fav!), but his best 2yo rating would put him clear of both. Odds; 8/1
FORT KNOX - He will get a lot of attention as he is jockey/trainer Johnny Murtagh's first Classic runner. Not without a chance if he improves on his first run this season, which is on a par with the above. He beat Don't Bother Me then, who later on ran behind Van Der Neer. So he is there or thereabouts. Odds; 8/1
HAVANA GOLD - He would have preferred the rain to have come earlier, which is pushing its way across Ireland as I write. Currently the going is good to firm, and if that remains the case, it lowers this ones chances. He followed up a second in a trial race where pace was opposite to the 2000gns, slow early fast final 3f, so ends up with a similar modest rating to the above. However, his follow up race was in the French 2000gns, and finished close up in a bunch finish just behind Gale Force Ten who was 4th, only 0.5 length off the winner. No rating for that, but assume it was an improved performance, but on heavy going. Odds: 8/1
GALE FORCE TEN - He is interesting because he has a rating from last season that matches Trading Leather, but over 6f, and has come on from a 7f prep on the AW to an 8f 4th in the French Classic. Alas the latter cannot be a guarantee that he will stay a true run 8f race? Deserves his chance though. Odds 10/1
GEORGE VANCOUVER - He could have been a serious challenger to Dawn Run on his best form, but my guess is, that without a prep race, and a good break after winning in America, the very fast early pace there would not have played into his hands. Now with that run behind him, and still on favoured fast ground, he only has to prove he is as good as last year to win ... but that is still an open question. Odds; 13/1
FIRST CORNERSTONE - He is in a similar position to the above, in that he has to prove he can improve on a good 2yo level. Tough ask first time out? Odds; 26/1
FLYING THE FLAG and ASK DAD are both probably in to ensure a sound pace? Neither has a rating to suggest they are anywhere near good enough to win.
Summary: The favourite is at far to short odds for what it has achieved on track. But only the stable know much more is ready to be tapped. For the rest, it is a very open race. Full of 'IF'S'. It only needs one to sparkle and it could be a rout, if the others don't.
Have a good day ...
Here, in betting order, is how I rate them:
Curragh 3.20; 8f 2000gns Group 1
MAGICIAN - Nothing spectacular as a 2yo. Won an average maiden that might give him a chance in a Class 3 handicap this season. Instead turns up in a Classic trial at Chester and wins with an impressive piece of acceleration, so has clearly improved. Just as well, as it only moves him up into Class 2 h'cap range?
Clearly, has to continue to show improvement just to overtake the worst of this field. Odds; 3/1
VAN DER NEER - Without doubt, this has a clear chance on his 3rd in the Newmarket 2000gns. It was much stronger race and had George Vancouver further behind. However, time wise, this race was not that good. The fast early pace meant the final 2 furlongs were so slow(16f race sectional time in fact) which confuses the picture for the race as a whole. Why were the horses not close to the pacemaker not able to finish better? Even Dawn Approach, the winner, did not quicken, but was just able to go faster than the rest? There were a few exceptions, Mars, who goes for the Derby, apparently was one of the quickest over the final 6f, and was staying on at the end. It is possible that the pack behind the pacemaker just went too quick too early? It is pure speculation on my part, but if they had set a more sensible early pace, and left Dawn Approach to chase his pacemaker, a good number of the field might have swallowed both of them up?
That is as maybe, but it still leaves VDN on a vulnerable mark to anything with real class, unless he too can put that right under a more even gallop? Odds; 9/2
TRADING LEATHER - He ran in the 10f Derby trial at York and seemed to do it quite good for a first run. One wonders why they drop him back to 8f, but it is a Classic, and although ruling him out of the Epsom Derby, it might decide what Royal Ascot target to go for, as he may be a horse caught between two distances? His rating from that is only a couple of lbs behind the above(and 10lbs ahead of the fav!), but his best 2yo rating would put him clear of both. Odds; 8/1
FORT KNOX - He will get a lot of attention as he is jockey/trainer Johnny Murtagh's first Classic runner. Not without a chance if he improves on his first run this season, which is on a par with the above. He beat Don't Bother Me then, who later on ran behind Van Der Neer. So he is there or thereabouts. Odds; 8/1
HAVANA GOLD - He would have preferred the rain to have come earlier, which is pushing its way across Ireland as I write. Currently the going is good to firm, and if that remains the case, it lowers this ones chances. He followed up a second in a trial race where pace was opposite to the 2000gns, slow early fast final 3f, so ends up with a similar modest rating to the above. However, his follow up race was in the French 2000gns, and finished close up in a bunch finish just behind Gale Force Ten who was 4th, only 0.5 length off the winner. No rating for that, but assume it was an improved performance, but on heavy going. Odds: 8/1
GALE FORCE TEN - He is interesting because he has a rating from last season that matches Trading Leather, but over 6f, and has come on from a 7f prep on the AW to an 8f 4th in the French Classic. Alas the latter cannot be a guarantee that he will stay a true run 8f race? Deserves his chance though. Odds 10/1
GEORGE VANCOUVER - He could have been a serious challenger to Dawn Run on his best form, but my guess is, that without a prep race, and a good break after winning in America, the very fast early pace there would not have played into his hands. Now with that run behind him, and still on favoured fast ground, he only has to prove he is as good as last year to win ... but that is still an open question. Odds; 13/1
FIRST CORNERSTONE - He is in a similar position to the above, in that he has to prove he can improve on a good 2yo level. Tough ask first time out? Odds; 26/1
FLYING THE FLAG and ASK DAD are both probably in to ensure a sound pace? Neither has a rating to suggest they are anywhere near good enough to win.
Summary: The favourite is at far to short odds for what it has achieved on track. But only the stable know much more is ready to be tapped. For the rest, it is a very open race. Full of 'IF'S'. It only needs one to sparkle and it could be a rout, if the others don't.
Have a good day ...
Saturday 18 May 2013
Newbury 3.50 - LOCKINGE STAKES 2013
This could be a very short blog.
Newbury 3.50: 8f Group 1 Lockinge Stakes
Summary: FARHH
Oh, you want more? Well on Official ratings it should be at least a 3 horse race, with two rated 124, and one 118. However, there is a simple approach here to separate the top two ... Who would have got closest to last year's winner FRANKEL?
FARHH finished 6 lengths down on his best effort.
CITYSCAPE ran Frankel's distant shadow, EXCELEBRATION, to 3 lengths, when the great one went for the 10f race, leaving his 'shadow' to win the 8f Champion division. So add a minimum of 7 lengths for how far FRANKEL(I just love typing that name!) would have been further ahead ... remembering, when he did press all the buttons and recorded his highest ever rating of 143, he was 11 lengths to the good, so that puts Cityscape needing to find 4 lengths.
BEAUTY PARLOUR this ex-French trained horse is now trained by Henry Cecil(sorry, not one for giving titles to people), and the stable are in fine form. However, it does have a lot to find on his last two starts, and on his previous winning form. The Irish top fillies UP and AFTER are good yardsticks to measure her by in the French 1000gns. Both are less than 112, and now she is up against colts?
The horses with at least 10lbs to find(on horses 12 and 20lbs inferior to the G.O.A.T. ..( love that too!):
ALJAMAAHEER
DECLARATION OF WAR
SOVEREIGN DEBT
Behind those you have;
FENCING
PENITENT
TRUMPET MAJOR
So, I refer you back to the summary ...
There are plenty of handicaps about, and some with very dodgy favourites(at the time of writing).
Take this for example:
Newbury 2.40: 6f Class 2 handicap.
MODEL TUTOR - Now he could be anything, but a class 5 maiden on the AW at Lingfield does not inspire me, no matter 'how well the race has worked out'. Current price 11/2
KHAWATIM - Another from the AW, but failed miserably on all 3 attempts on turf at the beginning of his career. He has improved since, but again, a class 3 AW handicap hardly justifies his odds. Current price 8/1
PRODIGALITY - This does have good turf form, but not in class 2 events. He is top rated here, so in theory the horses below him should be inferior to him, which is why he is giving weight away. But are they? Current price 10/1
Personally, I would lay the above and back the following ... if I had a bigger bank balance!
(in betting order);
POOLE HARBOUR ran his best race last time, and even though he lost, he improved his rating because he came up against an real improver in a hot class 2 event. Always promised to win a big race, this could be his day? Current price 11/1
KHUBALA has had a couple of runs over 7f this season, but his best run in 2012 was in a top class 2 h'cap at Ascot when he finished second to Gabriel's Lad, with Signor Sassi behind. He is weighted to confirm that form. Signor Sassi was the horse that Model Tutor beat at Lingfield, but no way can you take that form so literally. It was SS's only run on the AW, it came early in the season, where he went on to improve. The Ascot run was his final start. Khubala now has the fitness edge too. Current price 17/1.
JOE PACKET does represent real class in this race. He only finished 5th in a Group 3 on his last start, but improved his rating because the winner was MINCE, the top 3yo sprinter of 2012 and that race was the second fastest of the day. Yet he receives 3lbs from the Class 3 winner PRODIGALITY? Admittedly, he did not win a race last season, in fact his last win was a class3 on his final start the season before, but he had been going against the very top sprinters that year. He was harshly handicapped after a 3rd place in a Listed race at Newbury, and did not follow on. This can happen with horses, but his final start did show that he still has ability. Current price 20/1
I should just mention TOP COP too. Not much chance on ratings, but he is one of these horses that runs into a place at big odds. Stable are in great form though..Current price 12/1
That's it, be aware of false favourites in these handicaps?
Have a good day ...
Newbury 3.50: 8f Group 1 Lockinge Stakes
Summary: FARHH
Oh, you want more? Well on Official ratings it should be at least a 3 horse race, with two rated 124, and one 118. However, there is a simple approach here to separate the top two ... Who would have got closest to last year's winner FRANKEL?
FARHH finished 6 lengths down on his best effort.
CITYSCAPE ran Frankel's distant shadow, EXCELEBRATION, to 3 lengths, when the great one went for the 10f race, leaving his 'shadow' to win the 8f Champion division. So add a minimum of 7 lengths for how far FRANKEL(I just love typing that name!) would have been further ahead ... remembering, when he did press all the buttons and recorded his highest ever rating of 143, he was 11 lengths to the good, so that puts Cityscape needing to find 4 lengths.
BEAUTY PARLOUR this ex-French trained horse is now trained by Henry Cecil(sorry, not one for giving titles to people), and the stable are in fine form. However, it does have a lot to find on his last two starts, and on his previous winning form. The Irish top fillies UP and AFTER are good yardsticks to measure her by in the French 1000gns. Both are less than 112, and now she is up against colts?
The horses with at least 10lbs to find(on horses 12 and 20lbs inferior to the G.O.A.T. ..( love that too!):
ALJAMAAHEER
DECLARATION OF WAR
SOVEREIGN DEBT
Behind those you have;
FENCING
PENITENT
TRUMPET MAJOR
So, I refer you back to the summary ...
There are plenty of handicaps about, and some with very dodgy favourites(at the time of writing).
Take this for example:
Newbury 2.40: 6f Class 2 handicap.
MODEL TUTOR - Now he could be anything, but a class 5 maiden on the AW at Lingfield does not inspire me, no matter 'how well the race has worked out'. Current price 11/2
KHAWATIM - Another from the AW, but failed miserably on all 3 attempts on turf at the beginning of his career. He has improved since, but again, a class 3 AW handicap hardly justifies his odds. Current price 8/1
PRODIGALITY - This does have good turf form, but not in class 2 events. He is top rated here, so in theory the horses below him should be inferior to him, which is why he is giving weight away. But are they? Current price 10/1
Personally, I would lay the above and back the following ... if I had a bigger bank balance!
(in betting order);
POOLE HARBOUR ran his best race last time, and even though he lost, he improved his rating because he came up against an real improver in a hot class 2 event. Always promised to win a big race, this could be his day? Current price 11/1
KHUBALA has had a couple of runs over 7f this season, but his best run in 2012 was in a top class 2 h'cap at Ascot when he finished second to Gabriel's Lad, with Signor Sassi behind. He is weighted to confirm that form. Signor Sassi was the horse that Model Tutor beat at Lingfield, but no way can you take that form so literally. It was SS's only run on the AW, it came early in the season, where he went on to improve. The Ascot run was his final start. Khubala now has the fitness edge too. Current price 17/1.
JOE PACKET does represent real class in this race. He only finished 5th in a Group 3 on his last start, but improved his rating because the winner was MINCE, the top 3yo sprinter of 2012 and that race was the second fastest of the day. Yet he receives 3lbs from the Class 3 winner PRODIGALITY? Admittedly, he did not win a race last season, in fact his last win was a class3 on his final start the season before, but he had been going against the very top sprinters that year. He was harshly handicapped after a 3rd place in a Listed race at Newbury, and did not follow on. This can happen with horses, but his final start did show that he still has ability. Current price 20/1
I should just mention TOP COP too. Not much chance on ratings, but he is one of these horses that runs into a place at big odds. Stable are in great form though..Current price 12/1
That's it, be aware of false favourites in these handicaps?
Have a good day ...
Saturday 11 May 2013
ASCOT VICTORIA CUP
Moving on from the Classics, we now try a tricky handicap.
ASCOT 3.50: 7f Class 2 Victoria Cup h'cap
in (current) betting order;
CAPE CLASSIC is now current favourite and does have a very good chance on ratings. However, as with most of the 'fancied' horses, he is drawn high. The downside is that most of the pace horses are drawn low, which is thought to be the favoured side. Contrasting that, at the time of writing they are confirming it is still good to firm, where the high numbers have a slight edge. Confused? Well I shall amend this when I see course report after this morning's inspection to see what affect the overnight rain has had.
Cape Classic is one of a few that has show high level form on fast ground, and has had a run, on soft, so is likely to turn the form around with others in that race.
LIGHTNING CLOUD is one that prefers softer, so his opening run on faster going only shows his well being. Was very good two seasons ago, and has a chance if it has softened up at all.
HAAF A SIXPENCE ran an excellent race at Newbury, but has yet to show top form on fast going. Certainly on ratings has a good chance.
BERTIEWHITTLE is yet another drawn high, and is a hold up horse. All four named need something to take them into the race? Whilst he has a very good record over Ascot 7f, and I can see him coming on strong at the finish, I don't see him winning it. He does not win first time out, although runs well, and he is very high in the weights. Off this mark he will have to be better than ever?
JAMESIE is another I do not rate good enough to win, although as an Irish raider you can never be that sure? On form, a second on the AW at Dundalk, and better form on soft, it is a big ask.
TARTIFLETTE won the race with several rivals here behind him. No doubt he is a high class horse who rarely runs a bad race. He is also drawn low. Against him is the potential for it remaining fast going. He is high enough in the weights to make me think he will need to improve on his last run, but not without hope.
DREAM TUNE is the last of the group at the top of betting order and deserve a mention. Also drawn low, and will be up with the pace on the far side and may just get first run over there. 3rd behind Haaf A Sixpence which is solid form, and although tried at distances either side of 7f, this is his best trip. Good chance if that is the side to be on?
Going Update: No change - remains Good to Firm, no bias.
Arnold Lane, Bertiewhittle, and Bronze Prince likely to be up the front end high side. Glen Moss down the middle, and Fast Finian and others on the far side, it may even itself out?
Of others who deserve a mention:
ARNOLD LANE is top weight for a reason, and is in great form.
Excellent Guest and Smarty Socks both do well at Ascot, but may need a run or two to get to this level?
No conclusions, I leave it to yourselves to take the information provided, and see if it confirms your own view?
Have a good day ...
ASCOT 3.50: 7f Class 2 Victoria Cup h'cap
in (current) betting order;
CAPE CLASSIC is now current favourite and does have a very good chance on ratings. However, as with most of the 'fancied' horses, he is drawn high. The downside is that most of the pace horses are drawn low, which is thought to be the favoured side. Contrasting that, at the time of writing they are confirming it is still good to firm, where the high numbers have a slight edge. Confused? Well I shall amend this when I see course report after this morning's inspection to see what affect the overnight rain has had.
Cape Classic is one of a few that has show high level form on fast ground, and has had a run, on soft, so is likely to turn the form around with others in that race.
LIGHTNING CLOUD is one that prefers softer, so his opening run on faster going only shows his well being. Was very good two seasons ago, and has a chance if it has softened up at all.
HAAF A SIXPENCE ran an excellent race at Newbury, but has yet to show top form on fast going. Certainly on ratings has a good chance.
BERTIEWHITTLE is yet another drawn high, and is a hold up horse. All four named need something to take them into the race? Whilst he has a very good record over Ascot 7f, and I can see him coming on strong at the finish, I don't see him winning it. He does not win first time out, although runs well, and he is very high in the weights. Off this mark he will have to be better than ever?
JAMESIE is another I do not rate good enough to win, although as an Irish raider you can never be that sure? On form, a second on the AW at Dundalk, and better form on soft, it is a big ask.
TARTIFLETTE won the race with several rivals here behind him. No doubt he is a high class horse who rarely runs a bad race. He is also drawn low. Against him is the potential for it remaining fast going. He is high enough in the weights to make me think he will need to improve on his last run, but not without hope.
DREAM TUNE is the last of the group at the top of betting order and deserve a mention. Also drawn low, and will be up with the pace on the far side and may just get first run over there. 3rd behind Haaf A Sixpence which is solid form, and although tried at distances either side of 7f, this is his best trip. Good chance if that is the side to be on?
Going Update: No change - remains Good to Firm, no bias.
Arnold Lane, Bertiewhittle, and Bronze Prince likely to be up the front end high side. Glen Moss down the middle, and Fast Finian and others on the far side, it may even itself out?
Of others who deserve a mention:
ARNOLD LANE is top weight for a reason, and is in great form.
Excellent Guest and Smarty Socks both do well at Ascot, but may need a run or two to get to this level?
No conclusions, I leave it to yourselves to take the information provided, and see if it confirms your own view?
Have a good day ...
Sunday 5 May 2013
1000 GUINEAS 2013
This time it is the fillies turn to strut their stuff. I would love to analyse every runner, but time is pressing, so in betting order, we will see what the top order have in strengths and weaknesses.
NEWMARKET 3.50 8f Group 1 3yo Fillies - 1000gns:
HOT SNAP: She created a major upset when winner the trial race at Newmarket. Visually impressive against rivals that would not e fully wound up for that race. But that could have been said about herself, having only run once in the previous season. What does make it a fascinating though is her speed figure, which was the clear fastest, relative to the others, on the day. But here is the first warning from recent history. Heerat, the sprinter, ran an incredible time compared to the rest on his reappearance, and like Hot Snap, came into the race on a fairly average mark for what he had done. He could not repeat that in the higher class field yesterday, admittedly on faster ground. The point is, at this time of year all horses are still building to their peak, and so the relative fast time has to reflect that.
In Hot Snaps favour, she is not stepping into a very hot race like Heerat did, where the first three home were multiple Group1 winners. But even so, she will not have time to find her feet out the back this time, and it is that which might take away her final turn of foot that she showed last time. Inexperinence in the build up might also take its toll on her nerves. Without doubt she if a top filly, but this race may just be beyond her right now?
WHAT A NAME: This is the French challenger, and potentially the most likely winner. Although failing to win her Group 1 race last year, it was still a good effort as she was the only filly in the race, and the winner is a strong fancy for the French 2000gns. Only narrowly won on her reappearance, in a Group 3, but is expected to improve, and her trainer thinks the faster ground will suit. This is the one they will have to pass to win.
JUST THE JUDGE: Not raced this season, but signed off with a Group 2 success. That was the relatively slowest run race of the day, and consequently she did not match the grade rating. Despite that she comes into this with a strong chance if fully wound up. the stable think a lot of her, but this is a tough ask on this quicker ground.
MOTH: Not a lot to go on with her. Won in impressive style in a maiden, and that is it. Very few horses can make such a leap into the top grade and be successful, no matter what stable they are in? If she is exceptional, she might nick a place.
SKY LANTERN: She is a Group 1 winner, so the pace of this race will be no shock to her I am amazed how quickly people dismiss her chance after her prep race behind Hot Snap. Not fully wound up yet she marginally improved on her rating, which at least shows she has trained on. She has won on fast ground, and the best each way in the field, because if she does not beat the French horse, she will run her very close.
MAUREEN: She is the last one in with any chance on all known form. meaning the rest are going to have to improve beyond all recognition to get involved. She won her prep in pleasing style, against other hopefuls, and there is no reason to suppose that they will improve passed her to turn the tables. She does still have a bit to find on the above, but her battling manner of racing will give her supporters plenty of hope. Yet to race on the faster ground though.
Frankly I do not see the winner coming from outside of those mentioned above, and even 3rd place will be contested strongly.
Reflections on yesterday;
Dawn Approach will improve, although Epsom is not an ideal course for her, but he is a class act
Olympic Glory deserves an enormous amount of credit for his run. Racing alone for much of the race, yet kept on to take second from the fading better fancied runners.
Toranado did as I expected, and that was not finishing off in a strong run race. I cannot see him turning the tables in the Derby either. Much was made beforehand as to how he would be the one to strike for home first, as the pacemakers dropped away. But Dawn Approach went at the same time and simply outstayed him. It was the early pace that did it, and he will not always have that in future races. Not to be written off, but better than Canford Cliffs?
Garswood was very slow out of the stalls, and had to make a big effort to join the trailing group early on. In the end did well to keep going, but may have to lower his sight just a tad?
Van De Neer did indeed prove himself, and will be a strong contender for future mile races.
I have yet to do the ratings, but I suspect that the overall time will not be that quick, and the sectionals to show the final furlong was the slowest?
Saturday 4 May 2013
2000 Guineas 2013
Yes, the first of the Classics. Unfortunately it could be quite predictable, because if DAWN APPROACH is as good as most people think he is, then they may as well hand the prize over at the start of racing?
Luckily for us, things are rarely that predictable, so let us consider who brings what to the table.
Newmarket 3.50: 8f Group 1 3yo colts - 2000 Guineas
in betting order;
DAWN APPROACH; Finished 2012 as the top rated 2yo. Began racing at the beginning of March and then to be taken seriously after winning at Royal Ascot. Indeed, got a very healthy rating, and still continued to stay unbeaten through his next 2 races.
Now he could be a really great horse like his sire, but where I have a problem with his form is that his first 3 races, times were invariably very slow against those that ran on the same day. His Ascot race is a standout. The one that followed was again very slowly run, on pretty soft ground. yet somehow he improved his rating? His last run at Newmarket on softish going, and on my figures, did not run up to his inflated rating of 121. Indeed, if he ran against my Ascot figure his current mark would only be 116. Very healthy, but not a figure I would take a short price about?
In short, the doubt I have about this horse is based on the pattern that comes from his races:
Two weeks before Ascot, having his third run of the season, he failed to beat the rating for the grade of the race, and got a rating of 82.
Royal Ascot, with 4 runs under his belt, runs a blinder and gets a rating of 118. Top class.
Not surprisingly, he was laid off for 3 months. Then runs another race and he is below his top mark, beating Designs On Rome, rated 91, and his likely pacemaker today, Leitir Mor who was only rated 105. That is barely listed class?
Then the final run just 6 weeks later, again beating Leitir Mor now raised to 111, and George Vancouver rated 110.
Let's not forget, he did win all of these races, and that makes him a very good 2yo. He has grown well through the winter, by all accounts, and the trainer has some very good horses to measure him by. However, the weakness may lay in the lack of a prep run? I suspect because of the ground in the early part of the year he simply wasn't ready in time to get a run into him. Now they are relying on his class to see him through this?
For a horse that appears to need races to bring him along, that is a big ask, particularly on today's fast going. Not that he does not handle fast ground, but it means the likely race is going to be fast from the off. That may play to his stamina strengths, but it is a very tall order against horses who can finish fast?
That is the case against. Now for the opposition;
TORANADO: He won the Craven Stakes in good style, but like his previous wins, that was a small field, and broken down, against an unfit main rival, and an inferior stable companion ridden to get a place, and the other who was not that good? So for him to repeat that in this race when it is unlikely they will go that slow from the off, is a mighty task. The overall time of the Craven was okay, but only the third quickest, relatively, on the day, and was an excellent pipe-opener. But if he needs that type of race to run his best; steady, steady, quicker, quick? Well it is not going to happen here. Even horses below this level are likely to push on from the start, not to mention pacemakers? Although both of those may want to dictate a slower than normal pace? The danger there is it allows those with suspect stamina to get into the race, and they are likely to have better finishing speed?
Again, a top class horse, but also one with questions to answer?
CRISTOFORO COLOMBO: On bare form he has a bit to find on the favourite. Beaten a length at Ascot into 3rd, but more damning, next time is being beaten by Probably over 6f, whom had been well beaten by Dawn Approach prior to Ascot. In his final race, on the same Newmarket card as Dawn Approach's last run, he came up against the quirky but exceedingly good Reckless Abandon, who did run the relative fastest time of the day. He only finished 4th, but 2 lengths ahead was Moohaajim, so over these extra two furlongs he has that to make up too. But not surprising he is the jockey's choice? Having only raced over 6f last season, it is assumed his sire will give him the necessary stamina, and probable improvement. Not without a chance.
MARS: Time will tell how good he is, but a winner on the AW at Dundalk is not sufficient to judge.
GARSWOOD: Impressive with his win in the 7f Free Handicap. Traveled well enough to think he might get the trip here. The big question mark is will the rise in class be just beyond him? One for the shortlist, but enough doubt not to be too confident about?
GEORGE VANCOUVER: Possibly the most interesting runner given the fast going. Has a lot to find on the favourite, and Leitir Mor on several runnings, but all on softer going than today. Stepped up to a mile on fast ground and he showed what he is really about. Won the Breeders Cup Juvenile event in America on his final start, and blitzed a top class field in a very quick time. If he is in that form without a prep run, the rest can kick their reputations into the dust. He is the O'Brien stable 'dark horse', and he does know how to get horses right for the big day?
VAN DER NEER: Difficult to know what to make of this one. Lost out to the ante-post Derby favourite, Kingsbairns, in the 8f Racing post trophy. Had a prep but did not handle the Lingfield AW track, so did well to win, and is stablemate to Toranado. The 8f trip seems to suit, despite the sire's tendency for speed, and on the evidence of his last two runs he could be a lively outsider, and another who might appreciate today's going?
MOOJAAHIM: The debate over his stamina will be resolved today. I would like to think it was a combination of going and fitness that brought about his defeat against Olympic Glory in his prep at Newbury. He was staying on behind Reckless Abandon over 7f last season, and that race clocked my best rating for all 2yo's last season. Fast ground will suit, and he travels well. Whether the rising ground out of the dip will prove too much is the big question.
KYLLACHY RISE: Best, and only run last season was at Goodwood over 7f, on better ground than his prep in a Class 4 run at Newbury. That would have been way below what is required here, and may need further to show his best anyway.
LEITIR MOR: I have a lot of time for this horse. He has run the most races of all these, and yet rarely fails to show his form. In truth he is probably just below this grade anyway, and is more than likely here for the benefit of Dawn Approach. Has had a 6f prep with an eye to pace setting no doubt, and should set the race up nicely, even if the Hannon camp may not like it?
DON'T BOTHER ME: If there is to be a big shock then this is he one to do it. He had a good prep at Leopardstown over this trip, but as the winner did not make the stable cut, it is hard to see this one being quite up to it either. Nice day out for a smaller stable, and will probably be ridden for a place. Did not do well on his only start on fast going though.
CORRESPONDENT: Another without any real hope on form. His prep was against Toranado, and even in a faster run race, and him being fitter, a place looks hopeless task?
GLORY AWAITS: The complete outsider, and I suspect they haven't got his best trip worked out yet? Outpaced over 9f in his prep, admittedly against a promising newcomer, but has mainly been working away at lower grades. It is hard to see this race being the key to opening the door to a brighter future. Back to 7f handicaps may be his best route?
And there you have it. Make up your own minds, but in my opinion, it is not a two horse race as many believe it is?
Have a good day ...
Luckily for us, things are rarely that predictable, so let us consider who brings what to the table.
Newmarket 3.50: 8f Group 1 3yo colts - 2000 Guineas
in betting order;
DAWN APPROACH; Finished 2012 as the top rated 2yo. Began racing at the beginning of March and then to be taken seriously after winning at Royal Ascot. Indeed, got a very healthy rating, and still continued to stay unbeaten through his next 2 races.
Now he could be a really great horse like his sire, but where I have a problem with his form is that his first 3 races, times were invariably very slow against those that ran on the same day. His Ascot race is a standout. The one that followed was again very slowly run, on pretty soft ground. yet somehow he improved his rating? His last run at Newmarket on softish going, and on my figures, did not run up to his inflated rating of 121. Indeed, if he ran against my Ascot figure his current mark would only be 116. Very healthy, but not a figure I would take a short price about?
In short, the doubt I have about this horse is based on the pattern that comes from his races:
Two weeks before Ascot, having his third run of the season, he failed to beat the rating for the grade of the race, and got a rating of 82.
Royal Ascot, with 4 runs under his belt, runs a blinder and gets a rating of 118. Top class.
Not surprisingly, he was laid off for 3 months. Then runs another race and he is below his top mark, beating Designs On Rome, rated 91, and his likely pacemaker today, Leitir Mor who was only rated 105. That is barely listed class?
Then the final run just 6 weeks later, again beating Leitir Mor now raised to 111, and George Vancouver rated 110.
Let's not forget, he did win all of these races, and that makes him a very good 2yo. He has grown well through the winter, by all accounts, and the trainer has some very good horses to measure him by. However, the weakness may lay in the lack of a prep run? I suspect because of the ground in the early part of the year he simply wasn't ready in time to get a run into him. Now they are relying on his class to see him through this?
For a horse that appears to need races to bring him along, that is a big ask, particularly on today's fast going. Not that he does not handle fast ground, but it means the likely race is going to be fast from the off. That may play to his stamina strengths, but it is a very tall order against horses who can finish fast?
That is the case against. Now for the opposition;
TORANADO: He won the Craven Stakes in good style, but like his previous wins, that was a small field, and broken down, against an unfit main rival, and an inferior stable companion ridden to get a place, and the other who was not that good? So for him to repeat that in this race when it is unlikely they will go that slow from the off, is a mighty task. The overall time of the Craven was okay, but only the third quickest, relatively, on the day, and was an excellent pipe-opener. But if he needs that type of race to run his best; steady, steady, quicker, quick? Well it is not going to happen here. Even horses below this level are likely to push on from the start, not to mention pacemakers? Although both of those may want to dictate a slower than normal pace? The danger there is it allows those with suspect stamina to get into the race, and they are likely to have better finishing speed?
Again, a top class horse, but also one with questions to answer?
CRISTOFORO COLOMBO: On bare form he has a bit to find on the favourite. Beaten a length at Ascot into 3rd, but more damning, next time is being beaten by Probably over 6f, whom had been well beaten by Dawn Approach prior to Ascot. In his final race, on the same Newmarket card as Dawn Approach's last run, he came up against the quirky but exceedingly good Reckless Abandon, who did run the relative fastest time of the day. He only finished 4th, but 2 lengths ahead was Moohaajim, so over these extra two furlongs he has that to make up too. But not surprising he is the jockey's choice? Having only raced over 6f last season, it is assumed his sire will give him the necessary stamina, and probable improvement. Not without a chance.
MARS: Time will tell how good he is, but a winner on the AW at Dundalk is not sufficient to judge.
GARSWOOD: Impressive with his win in the 7f Free Handicap. Traveled well enough to think he might get the trip here. The big question mark is will the rise in class be just beyond him? One for the shortlist, but enough doubt not to be too confident about?
GEORGE VANCOUVER: Possibly the most interesting runner given the fast going. Has a lot to find on the favourite, and Leitir Mor on several runnings, but all on softer going than today. Stepped up to a mile on fast ground and he showed what he is really about. Won the Breeders Cup Juvenile event in America on his final start, and blitzed a top class field in a very quick time. If he is in that form without a prep run, the rest can kick their reputations into the dust. He is the O'Brien stable 'dark horse', and he does know how to get horses right for the big day?
VAN DER NEER: Difficult to know what to make of this one. Lost out to the ante-post Derby favourite, Kingsbairns, in the 8f Racing post trophy. Had a prep but did not handle the Lingfield AW track, so did well to win, and is stablemate to Toranado. The 8f trip seems to suit, despite the sire's tendency for speed, and on the evidence of his last two runs he could be a lively outsider, and another who might appreciate today's going?
MOOJAAHIM: The debate over his stamina will be resolved today. I would like to think it was a combination of going and fitness that brought about his defeat against Olympic Glory in his prep at Newbury. He was staying on behind Reckless Abandon over 7f last season, and that race clocked my best rating for all 2yo's last season. Fast ground will suit, and he travels well. Whether the rising ground out of the dip will prove too much is the big question.
KYLLACHY RISE: Best, and only run last season was at Goodwood over 7f, on better ground than his prep in a Class 4 run at Newbury. That would have been way below what is required here, and may need further to show his best anyway.
LEITIR MOR: I have a lot of time for this horse. He has run the most races of all these, and yet rarely fails to show his form. In truth he is probably just below this grade anyway, and is more than likely here for the benefit of Dawn Approach. Has had a 6f prep with an eye to pace setting no doubt, and should set the race up nicely, even if the Hannon camp may not like it?
DON'T BOTHER ME: If there is to be a big shock then this is he one to do it. He had a good prep at Leopardstown over this trip, but as the winner did not make the stable cut, it is hard to see this one being quite up to it either. Nice day out for a smaller stable, and will probably be ridden for a place. Did not do well on his only start on fast going though.
CORRESPONDENT: Another without any real hope on form. His prep was against Toranado, and even in a faster run race, and him being fitter, a place looks hopeless task?
GLORY AWAITS: The complete outsider, and I suspect they haven't got his best trip worked out yet? Outpaced over 9f in his prep, admittedly against a promising newcomer, but has mainly been working away at lower grades. It is hard to see this race being the key to opening the door to a brighter future. Back to 7f handicaps may be his best route?
And there you have it. Make up your own minds, but in my opinion, it is not a two horse race as many believe it is?
Have a good day ...
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