3.45 NEWBURY: 8f Spring Cup
Can I just make a plea to the racing Post - When there is a choice between a straight mile or a round course mile, could you please make it clear which is applying?
The reason I am saying this is because wherever I looked I could find nothing yesterday. The only clue we get is that the round course is 8f 7yds, BUT, the odd yardage is often left off the main cards, you only see the correct distance in the close up results bit ...Grrrr!
Assuming it is the straight mile, the the draw will be where the pace will be .... unless the do a Donny and come down the middle of the track?
Soft ground is the big change from Donny too, and reports yesterday were of the heavy side of soft, and even if it dries out it will be very sticky. That helps reduce the number of contender though.
I went through the whole field yesterday, and whilst some can go on 'good to soft', very few like it how it will be today. The trouble is not any have anything in hand of their current marks, but last years' 3yo's do have scope just to improve with maturity.
From that I reckon the horse with most going for it is :
FURY - Not a big price, but it has had a run where it ran up to its latest official rating. It matches that rating when it ran in 'Listed' company, and has won on the soft. Top weight is relative to its class, and I think that is a tad better than most of these.
Yes I know people will be falling over themselves to get on Captain Bertie, but he has run some 'iffy' races on good to soft, and it was a lot quicker at Doncaster.
Most of the horses I short listed are drawn high, but as a saver, PINTURA in stall 10 could go well if that is the side to be? I would give an EW chance to Oriental Scot and Heddwyn too.
Of the recent classic trials at Newmarket, I thought Trumpet Major did his claims no harm, as he ran up to near his rating. So with improvement, he should be a contender for the 2000gns.
Esentepe, whilst improving on her rating, looks to be a bit below the top. You have to assume that the horses behind did not run up to their best, and their second best wasn't good enough to beat her. Today's trials will not mean a great deal, given the ground, and one will expect Newmarket at the Guineas meeting will be a lot firmer?
I should add a mention to Mickdaam, who I was pretty critical of before his race, but given the circumstances of coming via Meydan he also ran up to his current BHA mark. However, whether he can improve at the same rate of those who were having their first run will remain to be seen?
Lots of other moderate handicaps around today, but with the soft ground prevailing it is probably best to keep bets to a minimum?
Have a good day ...
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