However, I urge caution if you are betting on form. There has been a long gap since these top horses ran, and they can develop (or not) a great deal over the last 6 months or so. Newmarket is littered with pitfalls today. Take the ...
3.0 Newmaket - SAMITAR has a clear chance, but, big BUT ... there is an un-raced Noseda colt running, Swiss Spirit has not that much to make up on the favourite, and the fit Switzerland adds another doubt.
3.35 the FREE HANDICAP - Very tight handicap and a case could be made for all. Unlikely anything will go on to win the Guineas, but all look good in their own right.
4.10 - NELL GWYN STAKES - This is the fillies trial, with a host of possible improvers. Even the favourite will not be decided until closer to race time. I do think the Stoute horse, Russeliana needs to improve a lot though, on my figures at least.
4.45 - FIELDEN STAKES - is another 3 year old race, where Perennial looks the choice, but a tough ask to produce your best first time out.
5.55 - Finally a open looking handicap. ES QUE LOVE is one that improved on his best first time out ... but like I said in my last blog, his improvement has been swallowed up by his new mark. He still looks the one to beat, but not a betting proposition for me. Of the few I looked at, Amazing Star is also handicapped to his best, but has had a run out on the AW, so should be fit. Top Cop has a couple of lbs in hand, but may need the run. Wide open though, with so many runners, it is almost certain one will spring up from nowhere(formwise), which is a good reason to leave well alone.
Beverley has an interesting sprint handicap though. last season was strange as the draw close to the rail was largely ignored and they came down the middle of the track. Now whether the previous bias will be restored remains to be seen, but I have taken the view that it will be, and the old high is the new low ...
3.20 Beverley - HAZELRIGGS - EW
Top class horse at his best, and is the lowest drawn of the horses I listed with lbs in hand. The favourite, Courageous will like his No 2 stall as he is the likely front runner. Used similar tactics over 5f at Chester last season, and his stamina over 6f will be useful here. I just have the doubt as to whether he will prevail first time out? Doc Hay is well drawn but on a high mark. Racy is classy but high draw. Baby Strange has a so-so draw, fit from the AW, and has a squeak even at eight years of age. Next berth out is Cocktail Charlie who is well in, but might find that draw awkward.
Tricky race, but at the current price(15\1) seems okay. They are just one more withdrawal away from ew 4th place though, now Partner has dropped out??
Have a good day ....
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