Saturday 21st April

I the chose a very tricky handicap today ...

3.45 NEWBURY: 8f Spring Cup

Can I just make a plea to the racing Post - When there is a choice between a straight mile or a round course mile, could you please make it clear which is applying?

The reason I am saying this is because wherever I looked I could find nothing yesterday. The only clue we get is that the round course is 8f 7yds, BUT, the odd yardage is often left off the main cards, you only see the correct distance in the close up results bit ...Grrrr!

Assuming it is the straight mile, the the draw will be where the pace will be .... unless the do a Donny and come down the middle of the track?

Soft ground is the big change from Donny too, and reports yesterday were of the heavy side of soft, and even if it dries out it will be very sticky. That helps reduce the number of contender though.

I went through the whole field yesterday, and whilst some can go on 'good to soft', very few like it how it will be today. The trouble is not any have anything in hand of their current marks, but last years' 3yo's do have scope just to improve with maturity.

From that I reckon the horse with most going for it is :

FURY - Not a big price, but it has had a run where it ran up to its latest official rating. It matches that rating when it ran in 'Listed' company, and has won on the soft. Top weight is relative to its class, and I think that is a tad better than most of these.

Yes I know people will be falling over themselves to get on Captain Bertie, but he has run some 'iffy' races on good to soft, and it was a lot quicker at Doncaster.

Most of the horses I short listed are drawn high, but as a saver, PINTURA in stall 10 could go well if that is the side to be? I would give an EW chance to Oriental Scot and Heddwyn too.

Of the recent classic trials at Newmarket, I thought Trumpet Major did his claims no harm, as he ran up to near his rating. So with improvement, he should be a contender for the 2000gns.

Esentepe, whilst improving on her rating, looks to be a bit below the top. You have to assume that the horses behind did not run up to their best, and their second best wasn't good enough to beat her. Today's trials will not mean a great deal, given the ground, and one will expect Newmarket at the Guineas meeting will be a lot firmer?

I should add a mention to Mickdaam, who I was pretty critical of before his race, but given the circumstances of coming via Meydan he also ran up to his current BHA mark. However, whether he can improve at the same rate of those who were having their first run will remain to be seen?

Lots of other moderate handicaps around today, but with the soft ground prevailing it is probably best to keep bets to a minimum?

Have a good day ...

April 19t - Newmarket

Another similar day to yesterday, tricky to decide who has trained on, who is fit, who will like the going.

Kicking off ...

3.0 Newmarket: I find this a strange race. For a start, I do not trust horse form from Meydan to get repeated, nor do I trust horses to run to their best so early in the season here having just come back ... I could go off on a ramble about the big prize money in the Middle East is severely taken down the standard of our racing here, along with the Breeder's Cup at the end of the season, but that has been covered in the Weekender ... So in short

Mickdaam - Overrated on what he has done here, will do well to repeat latest runnings back in cold, wet Newmarket.

Entifaadha - Again his to overcome the change in climate, but at least boasts the best 2yo form

Coup de Ville - He will be the most likely to take advantage, and is clear of the rest of the field ... just a slight stamina doubt though.

Alsaadi - heads the remainder, but also has to prove 10f is his trip.

Alksim and CHAPTER SEVEN could be in the mix for a place at least, and at 25/1, the latter could be an EW squeak, and has stamina on the dam side, and should strip fitter for his first run. Stablemate to Mickdaam, but would not be the first to be a winning 'least fancied' of a pair?

3.35 Newmarket: Very easy to look at Ghenki and Sirius Prospect, but it may not be that simple.

Genki loves it here. Sirius Prospect is the next big thing?

Mind, finding alternatives is difficult. Mayson and Jimmy Styles look the next best, and may be High Standing on a good day?

I'll just watch thank you.

4.10 Newmarket: Late withdrawal of Most improved does throw the race wide open.

Trumpet Major and Crius are next in line on my figures, but Eastern Sun is my thought of the likely winner. Not far behind the above two, had a winning run already(which may indicate he is less inclined towards the big prize next month?), and at a price ... but I will leave that to you?

4.45 Newmarket: Another race with two clear on ratings.

Twice Over usually runs well when fresh, and is the most likely winner.

Ransom Note ran a career best race here behind Cirrus Des Angles, So You Think, and 'my lovely' Snow Fairy, and just ahead of Twice Over. Despite that, winning at this level things have to go right for him.

If there is to be a surprise then it could be PRINCE SIEGFRIED, who on a going day is very good. It seems most of his 'going days' are here at Newmarket too?

For my handicap choice of the day I have gone to ...

4.30 Ripon: Lots here with chances if they pick up on their best form from last season.

KELLY'S EYE is my choice as to having the most in hand, but it still has to run up to that mark.

Hamoody is the danger, having already had a pipeopener.

Have a good day ...

18th APRIL - NEWMARKET

Yes, we off for the first of the classic trials ...

However, I urge caution if you are betting on form. There has been a long gap since these top horses ran, and they can develop (or not) a great deal over the last 6 months or so. Newmarket is littered with pitfalls today. Take the ...

3.0 Newmaket - SAMITAR has a clear chance, but, big BUT ... there is an un-raced Noseda colt running, Swiss Spirit has not that much to make up on the favourite, and the fit Switzerland adds another doubt.

3.35 the FREE HANDICAP - Very tight handicap and a case could be made for all. Unlikely anything will go on to win the Guineas, but all look good in their own right.

4.10 - NELL GWYN STAKES - This is the fillies trial, with a host of possible improvers. Even the favourite will not be decided until closer to race time. I do think the Stoute horse, Russeliana needs to improve a lot though, on my figures at least.

4.45 - FIELDEN STAKES - is another 3 year old race, where Perennial looks the choice, but a tough ask to produce your best first time out.

5.55 - Finally a open looking handicap. ES QUE LOVE is one that improved on his best first time out ... but like I said in my last blog, his improvement has been swallowed up by his new mark. He still looks the one to beat, but not a betting proposition for me. Of the few I looked at, Amazing Star is also handicapped to his best, but has had a run out on the AW, so should be fit. Top Cop has a couple of lbs in hand, but may need the run. Wide open though, with so many runners, it is almost certain one will spring up from nowhere(formwise), which is a good reason to leave well alone.

Beverley has an interesting sprint handicap though. last season was strange as the draw close to the rail was largely ignored and they came down the middle of the track. Now whether the previous bias will be restored remains to be seen, but I have taken the view that it will be, and the old high is the new low ...

3.20 Beverley - HAZELRIGGS - EW

Top class horse at his best, and is the lowest drawn of the horses I listed with lbs in hand. The favourite, Courageous will like his No 2 stall as he is the likely front runner. Used similar tactics over 5f at Chester last season, and his stamina over 6f will be useful here. I just have the doubt as to whether he will prevail first time out? Doc Hay is well drawn but on a high mark. Racy is classy but high draw. Baby Strange has a so-so draw, fit from the AW, and has a squeak even at eight years of age. Next berth out is Cocktail Charlie who is well in, but might find that draw awkward.

Tricky race, but at the current price(15\1) seems okay. They are just one more withdrawal away from ew 4th place though, now Partner has dropped out??

Have a good day ....

APRIL 14th ...

The day after Friday the 13th ...

Oh yes, it is Grand National Saturday.

Regular readers (lol) will know I do not 'Do' the winter game ... even in Spring. But for those desperate for another tit bit of information, I did glance at the card.

The first thing to note is that it is a big field, and that means 'luck in running' as well as ability.

The second thing, partly because of a slightly longer break between this and Cheltenham, means it has a bit more class about it.

However I went just below the top order to find one that looks interesting at a price:

4.15 AINTREE .... CAPPA BLEU.

I like a horse that can win at Haydock, has this race in mind - i.e. misses Cheltenahm - and has a reasonable weight. Cappa Bleu fits the bill nicely.

On the flat it is a pretty modest affair, but as I do not 'do' the AW either, that leaves Newcastle.

2.10 NEWCASTLE ..... TRES CORONAS - EW

He ran behind West End Lad at Doncaster ( I've got it right this time, I checked!), and was well beaten. However, he did a similar thing last season, and on his second run came up with a good second at Chester. His best effort came here at Newcastle in the summer and clocked a rating above his current mark. For that reason I think he is a good ew selection.

There is a slight doubt as to whether he can win with a 'Gosden' horse coming into it from just two runs on the AW. But I think that is worth opposing as turf form generally requires more winning than AW races of a similar grade. It is unknown whether soft ground at Newcastle will suit(big difference to polytrack), and is up against a bigger field of seasoned handicappers.

West End Lad produced could figures for his first time out win, but that has been swallowed up by his new mark, so needs to improve.

Hence the selection - Tres Coronas each way

Have a good day...

Musselburgh April 7

MUSSELBURGH - 3.20 7f

Yes, another toe in the water after the Donny shambles. Two big mistakes - One not rating ALL horses before eliminating them. Secondly, thinking that they would split into two groups.

That said, all four finished out of the money, but it is that time of year when you rely a lot on horses being fit enough to run to their ratings.

Interesting though that my big disappointment in the Lincoln, COCOZZA, is turning out so soon in at Kempton. Interesting, because he did not settle in that race, as I hoped he would, so perhaps the trainer might think it will take a bit of the 'fizz' out of him? Drawn 5, so every chance of dropping in behind the early leaders ... but will he settle? Not surprising few are risking any money on him this time, but in pure handicapping terms he has a few pounds to spare, but it is a strong line up with proven AW performers in the race ... We shall see?

MUSS - 3.20 7f is my feature race, mainly because I feel the the top two in the betting are vulnerable.

The selection is: PRIME EXHIBIT

This horse does not win very often but things look set right for him today.

Recent run at Wolverhampton in a fair race for the AW should put him right.

Not drawn too good, given the bend kicks in soon after the start, but he has the first and second favourites close by. Nevertheless, he will need some luck in running.

The excellent Lee Topliss, still claiming 3lbs, is on board.

Finally, the mark he is on today is around gives him a chance, but his best is a good bit higher.

LAYA'S HERO is drawn worst of the three at the head of the market. He ran a good race at Donny last Sunday, so fitness should not be a problem.

JEANNIE GALLOWAY ran okay behind Croisultan in Ireland last time, but tends to win at a lower grade. Certainly a danger, and drawn just inside the selection.

Conclusion: At a round about 5/1 Prime Exhibit is worth a small investment.

Have a good day ....

p.s. For the observant among you, you will note the sly bit of editing when I realised I got my wires crossed at 6.am this morning? Not only that, the available 5/1 has all gone now. At the current odds I would not be overly confident, given a fit outsider who is drawn on the inside could easily bring about a shock result ... I just don't have any recommendations on who that might be though, sorry.