York 19th August

This week at York has shown why it has been difficult to pick the winner of 2yo races by ratings alone. On Tuesday, in the handicap I failed to get the first or the second from the six horses a gave a chance of winning. At first glance you might say that is a pretty hopeless set of ratings? However, 5 of those 6 did fill the next 5 places, and the lowest rated was 84, which is where I chose to draw the line. But the winner and second were the next at 82 and 83 respectively, the picture looks a little different?

On Wednesday I went with the class horse who combined both a high 'raw' speed rating in a high class race and a rating near what was required, in my opinion, for the grade of race he was running in. W.Haggis, the winning trainer put it in very similar way to my reasomimg in his post race comments '... Most of these were winning maidens or nurseries whereas our chap had run well in a Group 2 in France'

Now the only reason I am dwelling on past results is because the first two races today are for 2yo's. I hope the above illustrates how horse can improve at a rate of knots at this age so all you can do is rate them on their ability shown thus far. You can make educated guesses on whether they may or may not improve, but that is all it is, only the trainer knows more?

That said, let me unravel the first race, as it highlights all that I have said in the intro.

1.45 York 6f

108 RECKLESS REWARD

96 CAPE TO RIO

92 CHISWICK BEY

90 WOOTTON BASSETT

Summing up; The vast majority of these have a 'raw' speed figures from the mid 6o's to 8o. Now apart from 3 of the above 4, there are a couple worthy of a mention because improvement could bring them into the equation. Namely; BUSSA who clocked a winning 104 in a C5 at Nottingham, but failed to follow up next time in a grade higher. Higher speed ratings in lower grades usually means the horse was able to relax and keep his own speed throughout. Stepping up can usually mean those around can go a tad faster than it would like, and so has nothing more to give. The second one is DUBAI CELEBRATION is similar, as it too failed to follow up in a C3 after its C5 win. It did well to win as the rider lost an iron in the race, but as the following defeat came at this course under much the same conditions, it clearly did not improve on that occasion.

That brings in CHISWICK BEY who won a Newcastle nursery last time in a slow time, but weight adjusted brings it up to the rating above. This is why I went into this at length, you need a high raw speed combined with the relative class. Chiswick Bey has neither, only the ability to give weight to C5 rivals.

CAPE TO RIO is more interesting as he records a good time in a Listed race last time out, over today's distance. His profile is progressive, and despite the weight allowance has every chance of being involved.

WOOTTON BASSETT is less experienced, but what he has done he has done it well. Raw speed rating only 1 point below the above, but against Class 4 rivals. Clearly needs to show more, but every chance of doing so.

RECKLESS REWARD has the best raw speed figure, against Group 2 opposition(franked yesterday), over Ascot's stiffer 5f. But, it failed miserably behind Temple Meads next time. The trainer said he need further, yet sends him to Lingfield over 5f ? Where he won C5 cosily enough but did not add any 'brownie points' in doing so.

My conclusion is that if you forgive the run at Newbury because they went quick from the off, and he and the winner were drawn on the 'slow side', but the latter has more natural 5f speed - the 8lbs weight concession is only a minor consideration ... If you do all that, throw in the confidence booster, the he is your winner. I for one, am willing to take his Ascot form as more than a fluke, and therefore my selection is RECKLESS REWARD. It is a 2yo race though.

2.15 York 6f

110 MAQAASID

96 MARGOT DID

Conclusion; Any horse that can throw up the 3rd best relative time at Royal Ascot as a 2yo deserves to be top of the list. Not only that, bettered Byword, Timepiece, and Strawberrydaquirii in the process, then surely is the one to beat?

Margot Did also got its best rating in a Group 2, but the time was slow for the grade.

Perfect Tribute deserves a mention, as he is on an upward curve, having improved enormously from his first run, and with a G3 rating of 88, has every chance of being involved if he continues.

Hooray and Imperialistic diva do not appear to have the raw speed that the others have at this level.

2.50 York 8f

No ratings but I like Acrostic at this distance. Likewise Ransom Note and course winner Capponi.

3.25 York 12f

If anybody thinks I will say a word against Snow Fairy you are off your head. She has made possible my early retirement, won me more money in 50 odd years of betting, and I love her to bits. End of!!

4.05 York 14f

I think Safira's Fire has dropped to a winning rating.

4.40 York 5f

If Above Limits is back to his best he should go well, the draw the worry though? Duchess Dora hasn't reproduced her Sandown win, but has a better draw.

Have a good day, Gerry