No more blogs

Sorry to disappoint my avid readership( LOL), But I have been overtaken by outside events. This means I am unlikely to be able to catch up with my ratings, which are already about 3 weeks adrift, so I am putting everything on hold for now. Although it is likely that it will be next flat season before I can really be fully on top.

I hope my warnings about Memory were not forgotten prior to the Moyglare? I said on more than one occasion that I was not carried away by the visual impression that Memory had given in the two runs prior to the Moyglare, simply because both races were relatively slow on both occasions. To me that meant the pace could not have been that good overall, considering that Memory finished fast? This is not me being wise after the event, it is just common sense to wonder if the pace was a bit quicker i.e. proper 'Group level' pace, would there be the same turn of foot?

I like my good horses to prove they are good in a quick race, not use a bit of classy speed in a slow run race. It may be that they may find something amiss with Memory, but until it wins in a good time I will remain a sceptic .... and save my money!

Bye for now, Gerry

York 20th August

Only thoughts today as the weather could mess up ratings badly.

1.45 York 14f

BERLING looks the type to do well in this, but I think he is weighted up to his best, so improvement needed. I have a curious fascination for a big outsider though. It has got a bad draw, did not appear to stay the trip last time, and his pedigree shares that view ... yet he looks like he has been laid out for this race?? DEAUVILLE POST is the horse I am thinking of - Hannon trained, with a good lightweight jockey on board, currently 60/1 on Betfair and likely to get bigger for all the above reasons ...but???

2.15 York 9f

I do not share the view that Rainbow Peak is a good thing. The time at Ascot was not that good. He got beat here first time out over this distance, and may well find another to run him out of it. Kings Gambit franked the form here next time though, when second to Wigmore Hall(and should have got it in the stewards room to boot! - oops, pocket talking), but the shorter trip will not help him. With Poet out, Rio Del La Plata may be the biggest threat if it stays on the fast side. Then you have Cesare, Confront, and Halicarnassus all having to come back to their best - any one of whom may well do? But I fancy a small ew on DISTANT MEMORIES who is stepping up in grade. I have him on 112 which puts him within touching distance of the best here if he can reproduce that at this level?

2.50 York 7f

Skysurfers and Red Jazz will be very popular, but my guess is the morning gamble will be on PALACE MOON. With Fallon in such good form here, and the second to St Moritz is rock solid. Interestingly his first try at 7f, and what a belter? (if you have been following my blogs this week you will know that the 3rd race is the one I have been picking the winners, another good sign??)

3.25 York 5f Nunthorpe Stakes

My heart is split in two here, as I have been a big fan of Equiano ... but then you have Borderlescott. Who can fail to like this 100% tryer?

Of course in this race you have Starspngledbanner too? Having listened to what they said on RUK yesterday, it may be a mistake if they make a bee line for the stands rail. But I get the feeling Starspangledbanner will, simply because if he does not and they do come across, he may well be chopped for room

I also think Equiano will run straight as a gun barrel down the middle. Why change now? And with the stalls on the far Borderlescott is more likely to run his race down the middle. Throw in Kingsgate Native(Fallon) and Fleeting Spirit(Dettori) and it looks a fascinating race to behold.

If the rain holds off I would favour EQUIANO because of his straightforward running, especially over 5f. I just hope Borderlescott comes back sound!

No views on the last two races.

Have a good day, Gerry

York 19th August

This week at York has shown why it has been difficult to pick the winner of 2yo races by ratings alone. On Tuesday, in the handicap I failed to get the first or the second from the six horses a gave a chance of winning. At first glance you might say that is a pretty hopeless set of ratings? However, 5 of those 6 did fill the next 5 places, and the lowest rated was 84, which is where I chose to draw the line. But the winner and second were the next at 82 and 83 respectively, the picture looks a little different?

On Wednesday I went with the class horse who combined both a high 'raw' speed rating in a high class race and a rating near what was required, in my opinion, for the grade of race he was running in. W.Haggis, the winning trainer put it in very similar way to my reasomimg in his post race comments '... Most of these were winning maidens or nurseries whereas our chap had run well in a Group 2 in France'

Now the only reason I am dwelling on past results is because the first two races today are for 2yo's. I hope the above illustrates how horse can improve at a rate of knots at this age so all you can do is rate them on their ability shown thus far. You can make educated guesses on whether they may or may not improve, but that is all it is, only the trainer knows more?

That said, let me unravel the first race, as it highlights all that I have said in the intro.

1.45 York 6f

108 RECKLESS REWARD

96 CAPE TO RIO

92 CHISWICK BEY

90 WOOTTON BASSETT

Summing up; The vast majority of these have a 'raw' speed figures from the mid 6o's to 8o. Now apart from 3 of the above 4, there are a couple worthy of a mention because improvement could bring them into the equation. Namely; BUSSA who clocked a winning 104 in a C5 at Nottingham, but failed to follow up next time in a grade higher. Higher speed ratings in lower grades usually means the horse was able to relax and keep his own speed throughout. Stepping up can usually mean those around can go a tad faster than it would like, and so has nothing more to give. The second one is DUBAI CELEBRATION is similar, as it too failed to follow up in a C3 after its C5 win. It did well to win as the rider lost an iron in the race, but as the following defeat came at this course under much the same conditions, it clearly did not improve on that occasion.

That brings in CHISWICK BEY who won a Newcastle nursery last time in a slow time, but weight adjusted brings it up to the rating above. This is why I went into this at length, you need a high raw speed combined with the relative class. Chiswick Bey has neither, only the ability to give weight to C5 rivals.

CAPE TO RIO is more interesting as he records a good time in a Listed race last time out, over today's distance. His profile is progressive, and despite the weight allowance has every chance of being involved.

WOOTTON BASSETT is less experienced, but what he has done he has done it well. Raw speed rating only 1 point below the above, but against Class 4 rivals. Clearly needs to show more, but every chance of doing so.

RECKLESS REWARD has the best raw speed figure, against Group 2 opposition(franked yesterday), over Ascot's stiffer 5f. But, it failed miserably behind Temple Meads next time. The trainer said he need further, yet sends him to Lingfield over 5f ? Where he won C5 cosily enough but did not add any 'brownie points' in doing so.

My conclusion is that if you forgive the run at Newbury because they went quick from the off, and he and the winner were drawn on the 'slow side', but the latter has more natural 5f speed - the 8lbs weight concession is only a minor consideration ... If you do all that, throw in the confidence booster, the he is your winner. I for one, am willing to take his Ascot form as more than a fluke, and therefore my selection is RECKLESS REWARD. It is a 2yo race though.

2.15 York 6f

110 MAQAASID

96 MARGOT DID

Conclusion; Any horse that can throw up the 3rd best relative time at Royal Ascot as a 2yo deserves to be top of the list. Not only that, bettered Byword, Timepiece, and Strawberrydaquirii in the process, then surely is the one to beat?

Margot Did also got its best rating in a Group 2, but the time was slow for the grade.

Perfect Tribute deserves a mention, as he is on an upward curve, having improved enormously from his first run, and with a G3 rating of 88, has every chance of being involved if he continues.

Hooray and Imperialistic diva do not appear to have the raw speed that the others have at this level.

2.50 York 8f

No ratings but I like Acrostic at this distance. Likewise Ransom Note and course winner Capponi.

3.25 York 12f

If anybody thinks I will say a word against Snow Fairy you are off your head. She has made possible my early retirement, won me more money in 50 odd years of betting, and I love her to bits. End of!!

4.05 York 14f

I think Safira's Fire has dropped to a winning rating.

4.40 York 5f

If Above Limits is back to his best he should go well, the draw the worry though? Duchess Dora hasn't reproduced her Sandown win, but has a better draw.

Have a good day, Gerry

York 18th July

This not a proper ratings post please note, as I am not sufficiently up to date.

Here are just a few thoughts

1.45 York 12f

Only a few have recorded a decent rating here, and the top two have a similar profile.

ANTIGUA SUNRISE - Two good runs here, and similar at Haydock, so likes a flat track. Receiving plenty of weight from the top ones, and at its best could win. Just a question of whether the current mark, relative to the others, is a tad high?

CRACKENTORP - Runs his best races in big fields. Likes to drop in so draw not a problem. Whilst he has looked one-paced recently, that maybe the way the races have been run. Again, on his best form he could win this, and a strong gallop will help.

2.15 York 16f

SAMUEL - He has had a break since his first run for a year, so should not bounce??. Has by far the best rating here, and his last 2 runs shows 16f is not a problem. Given he was a a bit fresh first time out I can see him reversing the places with the two principals. Value around 7/1.

2.45 York 6f

If this was over 5f it might be an easier proposition, but at 6f the odd doubt creeps in.

TEMPLEMEADS - This is the obvious danger to all, given the way he won last time. However, another furlong and now up 2 grades does put the dampener on things. Clearly a very good horse ... but ... is he this good?

APPROVE - The most experienced horse in the field, and one that has done it at this level. Whilst his 6f 3rd in France last time may take more time to evaluate, he had the local favourite behind, it was a Group 2, and he stayed 6f. He won well at Ascot over the stiffer 5f, and yet he is 12/1 on Betfair? I suppose everybody is looking at the 'potential' of the newcomers, as well as the above's presence. Me, I take Approve on what he has done, which is not far short of what is required here. The others have got to be a whole lot better than they have shown so far.

3.25 York Ebor Handicap 14f

Tricky as ever, Dangerous Midge has a good rating here, but a big hike in the weights will make it very difficult. There are a lot who appear to have been aimed at the race with very light campaigns, and with Fortuni to take them a long at a real pace, it will take some winning.

ROSIKA - This was the one I thought looked good value at 20/1, but if it is fancied I guess that will not be around for long? A good ew though, trained by Stoute, ridden by Fallon, and well drawn ... every chance?

4.05 York 5f

Like most, I see Face The Problem as untouchable ... by the field I mean. It is as quick as anything out so far. It seems a doddle to ride and the track should suit. What more can I say?

4.40 York 8f

Tricky race, no conclusion.

York 17th August

Just a short review of races I have had a look at.

1.45 York 5f

113 SIR GERRY

Conclusion(?); Unlike most horses running at York these have nearly all posted good figures at the track. Unfortunately, the one I fancy is not among the highest. The drop in trip down to 5 and a bit furs is not in my top rated's favour. it also looks like the pace is middle to high, and he is drawn low.

Therefore I am looking at those close up behind on my ratings. Not in ratings order, but the order in which I think they will go well:

JUDGE N' JURY - Ran a sound race at Epsom, will not mind the rain.

STRIKE UP THE BAND - Yet to strike top form but should go well.

SAUCY BROWN - Another who will appreciate the rain and has big chance on his Donny run.

2.50 YORK 12f

107 MIDAS TOUCH

Conclusion: Top rated, but not with one that should win this race. My feeling is that it is as good as he is, and there are plenty who can step up on what they have done so far. That includes the improving Harris Tweed surprisingly?

3.25 YORK 10f

128 RIP VAN WINKLE

Conclusion; No 'ifs, buts, or maybes' this time. Rip Van has the figures from last time out to see off this field comfortably. Any improvement will just make his task easier. Dick Turpin, Cavalryman, and Twice Over in that order should be the ones to follow him home.

RVW was close to his best behind Canford Cliffs, this time we should see the real deal?

4.05 YORK 6f Class 2 2yo Nursery(my favourite???)

weight adj:

92 BARISTA - Interesting, achieved the same rating in a C6 and in C2 race?

88 DA PONTE - Last time behind Byrony, Class 4

88 MAGIC STELLA - Behind Fifth Commandment, Class2

87 MADANY - Won Class 4 Nursery at Haydock in the soft.

87 MEANDMYSHADOW - Behind Geesala, Listed Class

84 REGAL APPROVAL - Beat Chevise at Epsom, Class 4

Conclusion; The top three have all got ratings behind horses, so despite the weight concession, they may still end up behind. Da Ponte is interesting, as he was only beaten a length and has only had 3 runs. Magic Stella was also not far back, but carried less weight than today, even allowing for the very good H.Bentley allowance. However, most are stepping up in class? Madany has been improving with every run and his rating gives him every chance. Meandmyshadow I find very interesting as he has been given plenty of time to recover from a poor run at Ascot. Prior to that he was improving with every race, and his Listed run gives her every chance. Finally, Regal Approval, who should be more at home on a level track. With only two runs behind him he should improve, but this is a step up in class and only in receipt of 8lbs from the top weight.

Therefore I would say that Madany is the one to beat, but Meandmyshadow is a good ew. Magic Stella is the best of the others, who all need to step up. However, the likely favourite, Jaahiz I have only on 78 despite his impressive course win.

Have a good day, Gerry

2.35 Sand 7th August

No blogs this week - racing poor, recovering from losses last week(backing my own sels-lol ... not so loud actually!!), and trying to find a decent motor to drive off into the sunset!

Sticking with the 2yo's:

2.35 Sandown.

89 CRYING LIGHTENING

83 EMMA'S GIFT

83 FORK HANDLES

83 KHOR SHEED

74 CLINICAL

72 AL MADINA

71 WHITE MOONSTONE

68 MUSHARAKAAT

55 ELKMAIT

Conclusion:

Despite the RP's comments about Ascot form being let down, with the top two finishing behind Memory - They suggest that these will be vulnerable as they have been exposed since? Whilst I have already commented that Memory needs to prove she is good as people think she is on visual evidence when running in a true run race, so I agree the form will be suspect? - however, I will stick with the top rated.

Why? Well she got an improved rating over this distance at Newmarket next time out. Got going a bit late that day but saw the trip out well.

Emma's Gift may not have been so lucky next time out, as that too was a slow run race. Stepping up a furlong here may help, but again there may not be a strong pace unless one of the outsiders goes on just for the glory of being in front until the 2f marker?

Fork Handles and Khor Sheed are both entitled to improve

Musharakaat ran on the AW, so has a different surface to race on as well as a big rise in class.

The rest have it all to do, and as there is no mention of a 'group horse in the making ..'(sic), I assume that Yarmouth winner, Elkmait, is simply a class 5 maiden trying her luck?

It will be no surprise if the ratings do not work out given the possible tactical nature of the race, but if they do go a half decent pace Emma's Gift could be a decent ew?

Have a good day, Gerry

p.s. knowing my luck at present Elkmait will romp it at 100/1!