I will go through the card though, as all races have their interest. It is worth noting though, Ascot does not suit all horses, so good course form is a major plus. The going is also a bit unique. For example, the going stick returns are around 9.0 on the straight course, and 9.5 on the round course. On almost any other track, that would be good to firm. Here, 10.0 is the fast side of good, which you might only expect to see at the un-watered Bath, and described as rock-hard FIRM. Even at good to firm, at Ascot, horses who prefer softer ground can run surprisingly well.
1.50 Ascot: 16f
(in current betting order)
OPINION POLL - Favourite by default I suspect, as he was beaten fair and square by Fame and Glory here. That was over 4f further, which may assist this time around.
TIMES UP - Improved steadily this season. Impressive win last time against a useful field and over this distance.
FAME and GLORY - Would be clear favourite but for his last two runs. Travels well and Ascot suits, but it is a big question mark as to whether he will be back to his best?
MOTRICE - If there is to be a turn up then this is the most likely. Like the fav, he was well beaten by F&G but that was on his first appearance and over the extreme distance. Lightly raced by a shrewd trainer so could go very well.
Conclusion: MOTRICE ew, with TIMES UP the biggest danger.
2.25 ASCOT: 6f
DEACON BLUES - Course form, distance form, the winner ...
MOONLIGHT CLOUD - First time over 6f? First time at Ascot? Having said that, she is a classy filly, but at this time of the year she receives only 4lbs from her elders ... who are also classy. Will be there at the finish, but may not be close enough to win of a fast and furious pace?
SOCIETY ROCK - Solid Ascot form is his major asset. Danger to all if running to his best.
WHIZZ KID - Should have done better last time over his preferred trip of 5f, but lightly raced.
SILVERSIDE - His German form does not look strong enough, but it didn't in the 'Arc either, so respected. This being Ascot I would suggest it will not be another upset.
Conclusion: DEACON BLUES, with Society Rock and Moonlight Cloud filling the places.
3.0 ASCOT: 12f-This is the most difficult race on the card, but I will take out the 3yo's because of their long season(much as I love Banimpire). There are some with no chance, but plenty, who on their day, could win.
Conclusion: GERTRUDE BELL ew. Crystal Cappella and Ferdoos for the places.
3.35 Ascot: 8f:
FRANKEL - Too much speed, too much class. The winner.
IMMORTAL VERSE - Sound at Ascot, improving. Main danger.
EXCELEBRATION - Has improved immensely on his earlier form with Frankel, but then so has Frankel!
Conclusion: FRANKEL
4.10 ASCOT: 10f:
Conclusion: SNOW FAIRY
Oh! Sorry, you want reason's? Best horse in the race. Will confirm form over SO YOU THINK. Will get revenge on MIDDAY(Would you believe Midday has never raced at Ascot before? First time for the pair of them?). Cirrus des Aigles, Grean Destiny, Wigmore Hall not quite up to this class. Of the 3yo's, Nathaniel is respected, but, but ... I'm not sure that this distance will suit as the 12f does. Top class Ascot form though. Place claims. Saying that, I think Casamento will come out best of the 3yo's. Given time to recover from injury and a trouncing by Frankel. Won over this distance against a useful field. Needs to step up on that, but is relatively lightly raced. That just leaves Twice Over to beat ... beaten by good horses on every visit to Ascot ... long may it continue.
1, SNOW FAIRY ... are we quite clear on this?
2, CASAMENTO
3, TWICE OVER
4.45 ASCOT: 7f - The only handicap on the card. Too many to analyse fully, so again, straight to the ...
Conclusion: CASTLES IN THE AIR, danger WHITE FROST(if it can shake off the last two disappointing runs?)
Have a good day. Hopefully I will be back next season ...
No comments:
Post a Comment