3.10 Doncaster : St Leger 14f
BLUE BUNTING:
Top rated and has every chance of winning this near triple-crown trophy.
However, not straightforward. She is taking colts for the first time, and 14f for the first time. Fortunately, time based ratings do not discriminate on gender grounds, so she is my top rated - end of ... (To use the current phrase).
Distance is an unknown, but given the even gallop going to be set by Rumh, the stable are not that concerned about her stamina. The only doubt in her pedigree is 'how the bloody hell did she win the 2000gns!'
Straightforward ride, held up, come late, keep going. So are there any dangers?
CENSUS:
This is the new kid on the block in some ways, because up until his last run he had been beaten by a couple of today's rivals. Slammed by BROWN PANTHER at Ascot, then narrowly beaten by MASKED MARVEl. The latter run really only seemed to enhance Brown Panther's credentials.
Last time out he continued his improvement by beating that horse(Brown Panther), and in doing so, got a rating only 2lbs behind BLUE BUNTING.
The manner of that victory certainly makes this race very interesting. No worries over the trip. Going not a factor should it rain. At current odds - 5/1 on Betfair - represents a cast iron EW at the very least, and a very good chance of collecting on the win side should it prove to be one tough race too many for BB?
BROWN PANTHER:
Only a further 2lbs behind the above from their latest encounter, and every chance of filling a place should things go his way.
Really solid horse, with only his trip to Germany as a blot to an otherwise consistent profile.
It will have to improve on his last run and has been 'on the go' all season. Tough ask?
Of the remainder, well frankly they are a tad down on my top 3.
SEA MOON:
Is clearly progressive, and look very good beating his rivals at York last time. However, a close look at what he beat will show they are more Listed class than Group level. Yes! I know Seville was 3rd, but his BHA rating of 120 is a joke really. He has not got anywhere near his 2yo high at any time this season, and was pushed out of 2nd place by a horse rated 105?
Yes the time was good, and Namibian, who looked a great possibility for this race was well beaten, but he never ran his race.
What I am saying is, despite a very visually impressive performance, Sea Moon is not good value as favourite because he has 4, 6, and 8lbs to find on the above. Not to mention the going??
SEVILLE:
The only thing going for this horse is the stable is on form. He, on the other hand, is a one-paced horse who seems to find one or two to beat him, at this level at least. Whether this distance will bring about a huge improvement is doubtful, in my opinion at least.
Summary:
CENSUS each way. Strong case for a win, certain to be placed.
BLUE BUNTING has not had an easy race this season and today is no exception. Perhaps her biggest boost is that every time I have overlooked her she has won!
3.50 Curragh: Irish St Leger
FAME AND GLORY is top rated, but not by much. He is in a similar to So You Think in so far as he can keep a one pace going at a high tempo to burn off the opposition, yet without ever recording a fast time.
JUKEBOX JURY:
Only 3lbs down on my ratings and has every chance of causing an upset.
Summary:
JUKEBOX JURY - plenty of pace in the race to upset F&G, and a come from behind turn of foot should do it?
Cheers, have a good day.
p.s. Pity I did not name the the 5 horses covered by 2lbs in my previous blog, as 3 of them fought out a head-bobbing finish.
p.p.s. Snow Fairy on faster ground would have won ... maybe revenge in the 'ARC?
