No more blogs

Sorry to disappoint my avid readership( LOL), But I have been overtaken by outside events. This means I am unlikely to be able to catch up with my ratings, which are already about 3 weeks adrift, so I am putting everything on hold for now. Although it is likely that it will be next flat season before I can really be fully on top.

I hope my warnings about Memory were not forgotten prior to the Moyglare? I said on more than one occasion that I was not carried away by the visual impression that Memory had given in the two runs prior to the Moyglare, simply because both races were relatively slow on both occasions. To me that meant the pace could not have been that good overall, considering that Memory finished fast? This is not me being wise after the event, it is just common sense to wonder if the pace was a bit quicker i.e. proper 'Group level' pace, would there be the same turn of foot?

I like my good horses to prove they are good in a quick race, not use a bit of classy speed in a slow run race. It may be that they may find something amiss with Memory, but until it wins in a good time I will remain a sceptic .... and save my money!

Bye for now, Gerry

York 20th August

Only thoughts today as the weather could mess up ratings badly.

1.45 York 14f

BERLING looks the type to do well in this, but I think he is weighted up to his best, so improvement needed. I have a curious fascination for a big outsider though. It has got a bad draw, did not appear to stay the trip last time, and his pedigree shares that view ... yet he looks like he has been laid out for this race?? DEAUVILLE POST is the horse I am thinking of - Hannon trained, with a good lightweight jockey on board, currently 60/1 on Betfair and likely to get bigger for all the above reasons ...but???

2.15 York 9f

I do not share the view that Rainbow Peak is a good thing. The time at Ascot was not that good. He got beat here first time out over this distance, and may well find another to run him out of it. Kings Gambit franked the form here next time though, when second to Wigmore Hall(and should have got it in the stewards room to boot! - oops, pocket talking), but the shorter trip will not help him. With Poet out, Rio Del La Plata may be the biggest threat if it stays on the fast side. Then you have Cesare, Confront, and Halicarnassus all having to come back to their best - any one of whom may well do? But I fancy a small ew on DISTANT MEMORIES who is stepping up in grade. I have him on 112 which puts him within touching distance of the best here if he can reproduce that at this level?

2.50 York 7f

Skysurfers and Red Jazz will be very popular, but my guess is the morning gamble will be on PALACE MOON. With Fallon in such good form here, and the second to St Moritz is rock solid. Interestingly his first try at 7f, and what a belter? (if you have been following my blogs this week you will know that the 3rd race is the one I have been picking the winners, another good sign??)

3.25 York 5f Nunthorpe Stakes

My heart is split in two here, as I have been a big fan of Equiano ... but then you have Borderlescott. Who can fail to like this 100% tryer?

Of course in this race you have Starspngledbanner too? Having listened to what they said on RUK yesterday, it may be a mistake if they make a bee line for the stands rail. But I get the feeling Starspangledbanner will, simply because if he does not and they do come across, he may well be chopped for room

I also think Equiano will run straight as a gun barrel down the middle. Why change now? And with the stalls on the far Borderlescott is more likely to run his race down the middle. Throw in Kingsgate Native(Fallon) and Fleeting Spirit(Dettori) and it looks a fascinating race to behold.

If the rain holds off I would favour EQUIANO because of his straightforward running, especially over 5f. I just hope Borderlescott comes back sound!

No views on the last two races.

Have a good day, Gerry

York 19th August

This week at York has shown why it has been difficult to pick the winner of 2yo races by ratings alone. On Tuesday, in the handicap I failed to get the first or the second from the six horses a gave a chance of winning. At first glance you might say that is a pretty hopeless set of ratings? However, 5 of those 6 did fill the next 5 places, and the lowest rated was 84, which is where I chose to draw the line. But the winner and second were the next at 82 and 83 respectively, the picture looks a little different?

On Wednesday I went with the class horse who combined both a high 'raw' speed rating in a high class race and a rating near what was required, in my opinion, for the grade of race he was running in. W.Haggis, the winning trainer put it in very similar way to my reasomimg in his post race comments '... Most of these were winning maidens or nurseries whereas our chap had run well in a Group 2 in France'

Now the only reason I am dwelling on past results is because the first two races today are for 2yo's. I hope the above illustrates how horse can improve at a rate of knots at this age so all you can do is rate them on their ability shown thus far. You can make educated guesses on whether they may or may not improve, but that is all it is, only the trainer knows more?

That said, let me unravel the first race, as it highlights all that I have said in the intro.

1.45 York 6f

108 RECKLESS REWARD

96 CAPE TO RIO

92 CHISWICK BEY

90 WOOTTON BASSETT

Summing up; The vast majority of these have a 'raw' speed figures from the mid 6o's to 8o. Now apart from 3 of the above 4, there are a couple worthy of a mention because improvement could bring them into the equation. Namely; BUSSA who clocked a winning 104 in a C5 at Nottingham, but failed to follow up next time in a grade higher. Higher speed ratings in lower grades usually means the horse was able to relax and keep his own speed throughout. Stepping up can usually mean those around can go a tad faster than it would like, and so has nothing more to give. The second one is DUBAI CELEBRATION is similar, as it too failed to follow up in a C3 after its C5 win. It did well to win as the rider lost an iron in the race, but as the following defeat came at this course under much the same conditions, it clearly did not improve on that occasion.

That brings in CHISWICK BEY who won a Newcastle nursery last time in a slow time, but weight adjusted brings it up to the rating above. This is why I went into this at length, you need a high raw speed combined with the relative class. Chiswick Bey has neither, only the ability to give weight to C5 rivals.

CAPE TO RIO is more interesting as he records a good time in a Listed race last time out, over today's distance. His profile is progressive, and despite the weight allowance has every chance of being involved.

WOOTTON BASSETT is less experienced, but what he has done he has done it well. Raw speed rating only 1 point below the above, but against Class 4 rivals. Clearly needs to show more, but every chance of doing so.

RECKLESS REWARD has the best raw speed figure, against Group 2 opposition(franked yesterday), over Ascot's stiffer 5f. But, it failed miserably behind Temple Meads next time. The trainer said he need further, yet sends him to Lingfield over 5f ? Where he won C5 cosily enough but did not add any 'brownie points' in doing so.

My conclusion is that if you forgive the run at Newbury because they went quick from the off, and he and the winner were drawn on the 'slow side', but the latter has more natural 5f speed - the 8lbs weight concession is only a minor consideration ... If you do all that, throw in the confidence booster, the he is your winner. I for one, am willing to take his Ascot form as more than a fluke, and therefore my selection is RECKLESS REWARD. It is a 2yo race though.

2.15 York 6f

110 MAQAASID

96 MARGOT DID

Conclusion; Any horse that can throw up the 3rd best relative time at Royal Ascot as a 2yo deserves to be top of the list. Not only that, bettered Byword, Timepiece, and Strawberrydaquirii in the process, then surely is the one to beat?

Margot Did also got its best rating in a Group 2, but the time was slow for the grade.

Perfect Tribute deserves a mention, as he is on an upward curve, having improved enormously from his first run, and with a G3 rating of 88, has every chance of being involved if he continues.

Hooray and Imperialistic diva do not appear to have the raw speed that the others have at this level.

2.50 York 8f

No ratings but I like Acrostic at this distance. Likewise Ransom Note and course winner Capponi.

3.25 York 12f

If anybody thinks I will say a word against Snow Fairy you are off your head. She has made possible my early retirement, won me more money in 50 odd years of betting, and I love her to bits. End of!!

4.05 York 14f

I think Safira's Fire has dropped to a winning rating.

4.40 York 5f

If Above Limits is back to his best he should go well, the draw the worry though? Duchess Dora hasn't reproduced her Sandown win, but has a better draw.

Have a good day, Gerry

York 18th July

This not a proper ratings post please note, as I am not sufficiently up to date.

Here are just a few thoughts

1.45 York 12f

Only a few have recorded a decent rating here, and the top two have a similar profile.

ANTIGUA SUNRISE - Two good runs here, and similar at Haydock, so likes a flat track. Receiving plenty of weight from the top ones, and at its best could win. Just a question of whether the current mark, relative to the others, is a tad high?

CRACKENTORP - Runs his best races in big fields. Likes to drop in so draw not a problem. Whilst he has looked one-paced recently, that maybe the way the races have been run. Again, on his best form he could win this, and a strong gallop will help.

2.15 York 16f

SAMUEL - He has had a break since his first run for a year, so should not bounce??. Has by far the best rating here, and his last 2 runs shows 16f is not a problem. Given he was a a bit fresh first time out I can see him reversing the places with the two principals. Value around 7/1.

2.45 York 6f

If this was over 5f it might be an easier proposition, but at 6f the odd doubt creeps in.

TEMPLEMEADS - This is the obvious danger to all, given the way he won last time. However, another furlong and now up 2 grades does put the dampener on things. Clearly a very good horse ... but ... is he this good?

APPROVE - The most experienced horse in the field, and one that has done it at this level. Whilst his 6f 3rd in France last time may take more time to evaluate, he had the local favourite behind, it was a Group 2, and he stayed 6f. He won well at Ascot over the stiffer 5f, and yet he is 12/1 on Betfair? I suppose everybody is looking at the 'potential' of the newcomers, as well as the above's presence. Me, I take Approve on what he has done, which is not far short of what is required here. The others have got to be a whole lot better than they have shown so far.

3.25 York Ebor Handicap 14f

Tricky as ever, Dangerous Midge has a good rating here, but a big hike in the weights will make it very difficult. There are a lot who appear to have been aimed at the race with very light campaigns, and with Fortuni to take them a long at a real pace, it will take some winning.

ROSIKA - This was the one I thought looked good value at 20/1, but if it is fancied I guess that will not be around for long? A good ew though, trained by Stoute, ridden by Fallon, and well drawn ... every chance?

4.05 York 5f

Like most, I see Face The Problem as untouchable ... by the field I mean. It is as quick as anything out so far. It seems a doddle to ride and the track should suit. What more can I say?

4.40 York 8f

Tricky race, no conclusion.

York 17th August

Just a short review of races I have had a look at.

1.45 York 5f

113 SIR GERRY

Conclusion(?); Unlike most horses running at York these have nearly all posted good figures at the track. Unfortunately, the one I fancy is not among the highest. The drop in trip down to 5 and a bit furs is not in my top rated's favour. it also looks like the pace is middle to high, and he is drawn low.

Therefore I am looking at those close up behind on my ratings. Not in ratings order, but the order in which I think they will go well:

JUDGE N' JURY - Ran a sound race at Epsom, will not mind the rain.

STRIKE UP THE BAND - Yet to strike top form but should go well.

SAUCY BROWN - Another who will appreciate the rain and has big chance on his Donny run.

2.50 YORK 12f

107 MIDAS TOUCH

Conclusion: Top rated, but not with one that should win this race. My feeling is that it is as good as he is, and there are plenty who can step up on what they have done so far. That includes the improving Harris Tweed surprisingly?

3.25 YORK 10f

128 RIP VAN WINKLE

Conclusion; No 'ifs, buts, or maybes' this time. Rip Van has the figures from last time out to see off this field comfortably. Any improvement will just make his task easier. Dick Turpin, Cavalryman, and Twice Over in that order should be the ones to follow him home.

RVW was close to his best behind Canford Cliffs, this time we should see the real deal?

4.05 YORK 6f Class 2 2yo Nursery(my favourite???)

weight adj:

92 BARISTA - Interesting, achieved the same rating in a C6 and in C2 race?

88 DA PONTE - Last time behind Byrony, Class 4

88 MAGIC STELLA - Behind Fifth Commandment, Class2

87 MADANY - Won Class 4 Nursery at Haydock in the soft.

87 MEANDMYSHADOW - Behind Geesala, Listed Class

84 REGAL APPROVAL - Beat Chevise at Epsom, Class 4

Conclusion; The top three have all got ratings behind horses, so despite the weight concession, they may still end up behind. Da Ponte is interesting, as he was only beaten a length and has only had 3 runs. Magic Stella was also not far back, but carried less weight than today, even allowing for the very good H.Bentley allowance. However, most are stepping up in class? Madany has been improving with every run and his rating gives him every chance. Meandmyshadow I find very interesting as he has been given plenty of time to recover from a poor run at Ascot. Prior to that he was improving with every race, and his Listed run gives her every chance. Finally, Regal Approval, who should be more at home on a level track. With only two runs behind him he should improve, but this is a step up in class and only in receipt of 8lbs from the top weight.

Therefore I would say that Madany is the one to beat, but Meandmyshadow is a good ew. Magic Stella is the best of the others, who all need to step up. However, the likely favourite, Jaahiz I have only on 78 despite his impressive course win.

Have a good day, Gerry

2.35 Sand 7th August

No blogs this week - racing poor, recovering from losses last week(backing my own sels-lol ... not so loud actually!!), and trying to find a decent motor to drive off into the sunset!

Sticking with the 2yo's:

2.35 Sandown.

89 CRYING LIGHTENING

83 EMMA'S GIFT

83 FORK HANDLES

83 KHOR SHEED

74 CLINICAL

72 AL MADINA

71 WHITE MOONSTONE

68 MUSHARAKAAT

55 ELKMAIT

Conclusion:

Despite the RP's comments about Ascot form being let down, with the top two finishing behind Memory - They suggest that these will be vulnerable as they have been exposed since? Whilst I have already commented that Memory needs to prove she is good as people think she is on visual evidence when running in a true run race, so I agree the form will be suspect? - however, I will stick with the top rated.

Why? Well she got an improved rating over this distance at Newmarket next time out. Got going a bit late that day but saw the trip out well.

Emma's Gift may not have been so lucky next time out, as that too was a slow run race. Stepping up a furlong here may help, but again there may not be a strong pace unless one of the outsiders goes on just for the glory of being in front until the 2f marker?

Fork Handles and Khor Sheed are both entitled to improve

Musharakaat ran on the AW, so has a different surface to race on as well as a big rise in class.

The rest have it all to do, and as there is no mention of a 'group horse in the making ..'(sic), I assume that Yarmouth winner, Elkmait, is simply a class 5 maiden trying her luck?

It will be no surprise if the ratings do not work out given the possible tactical nature of the race, but if they do go a half decent pace Emma's Gift could be a decent ew?

Have a good day, Gerry

p.s. knowing my luck at present Elkmait will romp it at 100/1!

Stewards Cup

Different approach today. I am following Robert Taylor's guidelines to eliminate some of the field.

However, I am only using 3 of his stats for these reasons: The draw looks pretty open this time, and there is likely to be pace across the board - Ignored. Having run in the Wokingham? Winners have come from other races- Ignored. Official ratings - Ignored(this is a high class field). I am eliminating the over 6yo's and 3yo's.

The main criteria are as follows:

Last time out ran in Class 2 or higher.

Having won over 6f - on turf, and in the last year.

Having been placed, or won a £20k h'cap, as above.

Eliminated: Knot In Wood; Advanced; Iver Bridge Lad; Johannes; Johnny Mudball; Run For The Hills; Ancient Regime; Sonny Red; Secret Asset; Prime Exhibit; Singeur.

That leaves the following, in weight adjusted order - up to Sir Gerry's weight.

124 ENACT

119 PALACE MOON

115 PERSIAN PYRAMID

113 CASTLES IN THE AIR

113 KALDOUN KINGDOM

113 PROHIBIT

112 JIMMY STYLES

111 SIR GERRY

111 INGLEBY LADY

111 NOVERRE TO GO

110 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH

108 GENKI

108 EVENS AND ODDS

107 EVERYMANFORHIMSELF

106 HITCHENS

97 EDGE CLOSER

97 STRIKING SPIRIT

Conclusion; The favourite looks to have a lot going for it, including several other of Robert's pointers. Whether you consider the price 'value' is another matter?

Of the others, many get their ratings from courses vastly different to Goodwood, which is why I would give Persian Pyramid a big plus. If the rain stayed away then the form should stand up quite well? Best of luck, you will need it, but I hope this helps?

Cheers, Gerry

Goodwood - Thursday

Going back to the 2yo races today, where I have had a bit more success(if you can call it that, ratings fine - selection poor?) than the 3yo race yesterday.

4.00 Goodwood Group 2 6f

104 LIBRANNO

93 MARINE COMMANDO

Conclusion: Group 2 winner last time out and a healthy speed figure, Libranno looks a class apart. Marine Commando is going to have to improve a great deal for the extra furlong and rise in class.

Mind, I nearly choked on my cornflakes when I read Timeform's comments to put The Paddyman ahead of Libranno, I quote ' ... looked group class in the making when winning a Yarmouth maiden by 8l' .... In the words of John McEnroe 'YOU CAN NOT BE SERIOUS!!!'

The class levels at Yarmouth are invariably poor and this meeting was no exception being made up of C5 and C6's, so to be superior to poor is not group class ...even in the making! Add to that, it was only the 5th best relative time of the seven races?? But, hey, what do I know? My record this week has probably put that as a nap in some people's notebooks?

4.35 Goodwood Class 2 7f

90 minus 1lbs MEMEN

77 plus 3lbs SINGAPORE LILY

81 plus 12lbs FALKLAND FLYER

Conclusion:

Memen, like the above, has the rating and the speed figure to win this, but the weight concession brings the other two into it.

Singapore Lily gets in close due to he big weight allowance, but got beaten 12l when they met at Newmarket. I have watched the replays of both races, and the Sandown one is the most unsatisfactory. Here, Singapore Lily was held up in a slowly run race - indeed, they were 'careful' round the bend - so it was a sprint to the line. Out the back was not the place to be, but she was just behind the eventual 3rd when making her run. Got a slight knock which may have cost her a couple of lengths, but that would have only put her ahead of the wall of three horses who she got stuck behind.

At Newmarket, Singapore Lily tried to make the running, while Memen was stuck behind a group of horses. It all changed just over 1f out when Memen got in the clear and went forward to win impressively, Singapore Lily went backwards. Now whether the way the race is run today will make any difference I doubt, unless it is a crawl. Again doubtful as there is plenty of pace here. I also disagree with Timeform's view that the track may not suit Memen. I have watched the replay of the Chepstow race they refer to, yes I have been thorough this morning, and I got the impression that the did not go too quick, kicked about 4f out, and Memen got outpaced in what was effectively a 4f sprint, and was eased when it was obvious that 4th was the best he could manage. That was over 6f, today is 7f, albeit on a downhill track. With plenty of pace, his turn of foot will be the key.

Falkland Flyer is not so difficult to work out. He is a possible pacemaker, so is likely to set it up for those coming from behind. However, he has been run out of it twice since winning a class 5 maiden.

The rest, in my opinion, are simply not good enough, or not getting enough weight to match my selection.

Have a good day, Gerry

Goodwood 2.10 July29th

I got stuck on the first race as 3yo handicaps, like their 2yo counterparts, offer a challenge. Also they have all run in at least one truly run race so their ability is revealed, but not necessarily any further improvement?

2.10 GOODWOOD

97 C4 RIGIDITY

Conclusion: This ran in a hot class 4 handicap at York, over this distance, and in a marginally slower time than Imposing did on the day. Whilst the winner has not gone on to great things, Contract Caterer was behind and has. It is lightly raced, not having run since May, but with Henry Cecil as the trainer, it should not be a problem? Stable are certainly in form now and the course should not pose a problem. It may not be a confident selection because of the rise in class, but it will do for me in a race full of 'ifs' and 'buts'.

But of course, you all want to know what am turning down don't you?

In ratings order:

110 CAPPONI - One of many stepping up to 10f, but with 10lbs in hand?

106 RANSOM NOTE - Did not improve for the step up to 10f last time

99 INVINCIBLE SOUL - Late rattle will suit jockey in form, will 10f?

96 LONDON STRIPE - Better at this trip, but needs to improve. Danger

96 CUMULUS NIMBUS - Love the name, and the style of win last time. A player.

89 BEACHFIRE - Stepping up in grade, and not well in.

88 RIGHT STEP - Interesting, go back to April over this distance???

87 AATTASH - Course winner, but not a lot in hand on my ratings.

86 INGLEBY SPIRIT - Again, go back to April has a chance, but likes it softer?

85 CULTIVAR - Chester winner over 10f, but needs to improve.

82 ABERGAVENNY - Better at Windsor, like the above, needs to improve.

82 SOLICITOR - Interesting. Beverley win sound, but big rise in class.

80 FINEST RESERVE - More interesting, stepping up to 10f could help??

Those highlighted in RED are my ew suggestions.

Have a good day, Gerry

Goodwood - 28th July

Just a few notes on the other races.

2.10 GOOD WOOD

I have only looked at the main players here, and most ratings match their Official h'cap mark ... with one exception;

THEOLA - 98 plus 17lbs

Don't get too carried away as that was in a class 2 at Chester. Fastest comparative time on the day, carrying 10st. Now up 2 grades, over further? But with Betair offering 9/1 currently, it could run a good race with only 8.12lbs? Remember, all of that 16lbs is because of the rise in class - plus 2lbs rise for winning. At Chester all horses were rated inferior to her, most are better here!!

3.25 GOODWOOD - SUSSEX STAKES

If I thought these runners were all 100% there would only be one selection -RIP VAN WINKLE.

Alas, this is not the case. I have only 2lbs separating Canford Cliffs from Premier Loco, but both ran below their OR's last time out? Neither are within 20lbs RVW's last year's rating though.

I will sit this one out. For those who do the 'in running' plays, it may be an idea to see if Beethoven is their as a pacemaker or to run on its own merits?

4.00 GOODWOOD

Nightmare! I have only found one horse that has a better rating than its OR - Sea Of heartbreak, and that only by 2lbs .... a placepot buster of a race!

4.35 GOODWOOD

ROYALORIEN set a good standard as its debut was run in a very good time.

I am out of time to do any justice to the last 2 races. Have a good day

Gerry

Goodwood 2.45

I am sticking with the 2yo race today, although only 7 runners does take the EW value out?

2.45 GOODWOOD

107 G2 KING TORUS

103 G2 CHILWORTH LAD

81 C2 CROWN PROSECUTOR

76 C4 SURREY STAR

Conclusion: If the odds reflected the above then it might easy to conclude that the top two have it between them? However, I was amazed to see Crown Prosecutor is favourite on Betfair, and even more chuffed to get 12.5 on Chilworth Lad!

The reason is simple. The top two have both run in Group 2's. King Torus had a gutsy win over 7f at Newmarket. This is a sharper track. He now carries a 3lb penalty. Chilworth Lad has been racing over 5f and 6f, and his rating comes over the latter at the Curragh, a stiffish track. He got hampered at a crucial time, and only stayed on thereafter, but only beaten 2 lengths. Add in that the raw speed rating is 11pts faster than King Torus(although top in that category goes to the Hannon '2nd' string, Major Art), you can see why 'chuffed' hardly describes my delight at the odds ... Mind, with my biorythmns on the decline I shall no do doubt be sticking an 'F' in the Hannon horse's name if it is a repeat of yesterday!

Goodwood 4.00

I am choosing races carefully, so this 2yo race is it. By this time of year 2yo's are starting to beat my race grades regularly, which gives me a better idea of their ability. Others get close, particularly in the higher grades, which is okay. Then you get the ones who get no where near the grade, whether in victory or defeat, and you cannot be sure if it is the the grade -i.e. the 'class' - that has left them short, or just the way the race was run?

That is the challenge!

In my order of ratings:

4.00 GOODWOOD:

99 G1 STONE OF FOLCA - This course will suit better, should win.

96 G1 ZEBEDEE - Behind above. win nto rates 91. Placepot banker.

93 LST PRIMO LADY- Sound win at York, well beaten at this level since.

86 C2 BOLD BIDDER - Ran a blinder behind Temple Meads. Course will suit.

85 C2 SCARLET ROCKS - Course will suit, beaten at higher level.

84 C3 MAYSON - York maiden second, did not improve when winning.

Others to note:

85 G2 SERENA'S PRIDE - Rating from Ascot, well beaten then and since.

79 C4 CHOOSE WISELY - Excellent winning time, probably improved in France?

71 C5 AVONMORE STAR - Course winner, better than rating.

One to query?:

73 C4 LORD OF THE STARS - Got high praise in good class races but has yet to record a decent time figure??

72 C2 Again, looked good, time slow.

Conclusion: I can see no reason why the form of the top two will be reversed. This course will suit Stone Of Folca much better, and Jimmy Quinn is the right sort of jockey get him there close home?

Zebedee should be the biggest danger, but did not improve on his rating next time at the lower grade.

Of the rest, I think this race will come a bit too soon for Bold Bidder after his heroic York effort.

I would have given a squeak to Choose Wisely, but defeat at Listed level probably means he is not up to this grade.

Avonmore Star however has the second best 'speed figure' and is much better than the handicap rating. Course winner gives him a sound EW chance.

Have a good day, Gerry

Ascot 24th July

This is short blog, concentrating on just two races.

2.40 Ascot:

96 Group 3 6f MARGOT DID

91 Group 2 6f SORAAYA

84 Class 2 6f CATFISH

83 Group 2 5f CATALINA'S DIAMOND

The top two have similar, but separate ratings, behind Memory. Unfortunately I am not swayed by the visually impressive Memory, as both victories were recorded as having the slowest time figure of all at both Newmarket and Ascot. Class difference between the two race is virtually nil, as a few ran in both, the collateral form would give the edge to Margot Did. That race also had the higher of the two speed figures, hence the higher final rating.

However, as unlikely as it may seem, Catalina's Diamond would have an outstanding EW chance if you can ignore the Nottingham race last time? Despite finishing a 6 lengths,and only 6th behind Maqaasid, the speed figure puts it only 1 point behind Margot Did's figure. Yes, it was over 5f, but she stayed on. The 6f Nottingham race is more difficult to explain away. She did make the running, and the time was quite good on the day, but it was only Class 5. It may be she is simply not up to this level, but with the odds difference of 75/1 against 5/2 I think a small EW is in order.

Catfish does have a winning rating, and her speed figure is slightly better than Soraaya's ... But, at Class 2 level.

On pure speed figures, Shoshoni Wind is well clear, but from a modest Class 5.

The rest are very average, and although not having a rating for Queen of Spain, form lines through Memory and Meow suggests this will be a wasted journey?

Anything is open to improvement, but from what they have shown so far I think my ratings will stand up quite well.

3.15 Ascot:

(Wght adj)

116 Class 2 8f KING OF WINDSOR

113 Class 2 8f HIGHLAND KNIGHT

102 Class 3 8f GINGER JACK

102 Class 4 8f ZAKILY

101 Class 5 8f SPA'S DANCER

The top two are both rated on their run behind Sea Lord, and that is solid form. Ginger Jack is improving but is up in grade, the other two even more so.

Spa's Dancer is 5lbs clear of the next pair, Side Glance and Mass Rally (class 2 and 3 respectively), and they have the class to be in there fighting for a place.

4.25 Ascot:

121 Group 2 HARBINGER

120 Group 1 WORKFORCE

I repeat what I said the other day. If Stoute did not think Workforce was not something special I cannot believe they would risk his enormous potential value at stud racing against a horse they know is very good? Even now, if there was a hint of something being amiss in the stable they would pull him out. Harbinger carries the hopes of many, and they get to be in the parade ring on their big day, so they are not going to mind too much if they finish second. Of course they are hoping for a win, but it will not be the end of their world.

I said after Workforce won the Derby I could only rate him at 120, but he has the potential to go well into the mid 130's. Comparing with Racing Post, you need to add 14 to mine, i.e. 134 (same for Harbinger), so when I say the mid 130's the comparison with Sea The Stars becomes that much closer at 148+??

Workforce to win in the style of a great horse, Harbinger should run his race if Confront does his job well.

Well that is the blog. Have a good day,

Gerry

Blogs off

Yes, sorry but there will be no more blogs in the near future, while I try to catch up with results for my database.

Few Saturday figures

This is a quick blog on the following races:

Haydock 2.50

108 BARSHIBA

108 LADY JANE DIGBY

104 CASSIQUE LADY

Haydock 3.25 -weight adj

126 HANOVARIAN BARON

118 REVE DE NUIT

117 SUBMARINER

114 ALMIQDAAD

Leicester 3.00

89 CASTER SUGAR - see Top Spot blog -Warwick

87 BOLLIN DOLLY

87 TUT

Leicester 4.10

104 HAJOUM

103 TESSLAM - wfa adj

90 BIG NOISE

Sandown 2.00

117 BOULD MOVER

117 TRIPLE ASPECT

Sandown 3.10 - See yesterdays blog -No horse ticks all the boxes, see below

MAWATHEEQ - yet to prove he is as good as last year.

SRI PUTRA - probably outclassed, but dangerous if the others take their eyes of him

TWICE OVER - possible concerns with two runs on fast ground, and bombed here last year.

ZACINTO - trip too far, pulls hard.

DAR RE MI - trip too short, and lack of pace.

VISCOUNT NELSON - yet to win at this level.

All the above are questions that will be answered as the race unfolds.

Have a good day,

Gerry

ECLIPSE STAKES

The race has cut up badly, and 2010 ratings available are not very good, but all could be better than these ratings.

MAWATHEEQ - 95

Rating from only run this year, behind Buzzword and TWICE OVER. Very poor race on time, but should improve for the run.

TWICE OVER - 101

Finish close second to Buzzword, and looked to be coming back to its best, and again should rate higher than this.

SRI PUTRA- 107

Rating came from first time out win, and the time was slow, and therefore rated below its Official mark. Very poor run next time.

VISCOUNT NELSON - 111 (For cricket fans, stand on one leg throughout the race!)

This was a better run in the Irish 2000gns, behind Canford Cliffs. Breeding suggest he may be better at this 10f, so not without a chance. O'Brien horses in better form now?

ZACINTO - 118

Excellent run behind Goldikova at Ascot, and gets the top mark ... However, that was over 8f, most of his better runs are over that distance, so will the extra 2f be an advantage ... ? I would suggest that the breeding and running style would say no, even in this small field with no guaranteed pacemaker.

DAR RE MI - 118est

The only rating I can give here is through Sariska - If Sariska's win at York rated the same as a .75l defeat by Dar Re Mi last year, then 118 is what you get.

Unfortunately, my ratings for 08 and 09 both ran out of steam just when the season kicks into top gear - hence only 2010 ratings.

Conclusion - DAR RE MI to win, but as it is likely to be a muddling race, pacewise, I would have a saver on VISCOUNT NELSON. 3yo's have as good a record in the race as any group.

KING STANDS STAKES

The day's Top Spot is:

3.05 Ascot June 15 - Group 1 5f

127 EQUIANO, plus 13lbs

This was Equiano back to his very best, matching his equally brilliant win two years ago. It will take an exceptional performance to knock him off the sprinting crown if they can keep him at this level until the l'Abbaye?

121 MARKAB, plus 11lbs

My how this horse has improved this year. I thought his win in Ireland may have been a one off, but this is even better. Quite remarkable for a horse of his age ... until, that is ...

123 BORDERLESCOTT, plus 9lbs

Nine years of age and still putting it all in at the very highest level. Some horse, some performance? He broke well, but when the winner kicked for home he lost a length or two, and was playing catch up all the way to the line. He deserves another Group 1.

123 NICCONI, plus 6lbs

I heard some negative comments made about this horse, but on these figures, he is a very good horse. Had trouble in running, without which he may well have got second. True, he is no Choisir, but then not many are (except possibly one of his sons??), but if he sticks around he may well get compensation.

117 BOULD MOVER, plus 10lbs

For a 66/1 shot this horse was right there until the last few strides. He will not be those odds again, that is for sure. But one for the notebook when the ground rides quick.

118 KINGSGATENATIVE, plus 1lbs

Only ran to his rating really. Met trouble in running, but unlike Nicconi, could not get going again.

114 SPIN CYCLE, plus 4lbs

Ran a sound race without ever looking like winning, which makes me think that a Group 2 may be his best chance of a win. Given the strength at the top of this market, it is unlikely to get much easier?

110 AMOURE PROP. plus 0lbs

Another who only ran to its rating, and finds this company a bit hot. If he can get out and get a really good uncontested lead he will come good, but again, probably not at this level?

105 BLUE JACK, minus 5lbs

I know people have been raving about this horse since his scintillating win in a C2 h'cap. Indeed, I have him at least 10lbs higher ... AT THAT LEVEL! ... Personally, I think 105 is as good as he is in this grade. The quicker pace just takes enough out of his finishing kick at the vital stage, and they prove too strong at the finish. He will find a race, but not at the very top just yet.

This was far and away the best rated race on day one of the Royal Ascot meeting and deserves the 'Top Spot' billing, and I hope puts a proper perspective on the race?

Of the other races;

GOLDIKOVA dropped a point on 129; Canford Cliffs dropping to 113 - very disappointing and I will double check the time tomorrow with my R/form Update! - ; STRONG SUIT ran the slowest comparative time, even for a 2yo, so I am not sure he will figure among the top contenders at the end of the year?

The rest were all horrendous negatives!

That concludes this blog. I hope it keeps you interested.

Cheers, Gerry

7.55 Warwick June 14

This Top Spot race is a listed race, ran in a quick time on the night.

Warwick 11f Class 1 Listed:

LADY JANE DIGBY - 113, plus 9lbs

Should not go up too much(see below) and could follow up at a similar level - i.e. a reasonable Listed race at one of the lesser courses. This distance suits, as does 'good' ground.

CASSIQUE LADY - 104, plus 10lbs

Has raced over further, but has not won on firm since her first run.

LADY ARTEMISIA

This was a bit of a step up in class and could have done with faster ground. Worth noting nto.

SAPHIRA'S FIRE

Ran a sound race, but her profile reads like she needs to drop a grade.

UVINZA

She has contested some fairly tough races but just seems to lack that extra gear ... at this level?

HONIMEIRE

She ran Strawberrydaicquiri to a head over 9f, so probably needs to drop back to 10f or less.

DANEHILL'S PEARL

Never got into this race, first try over longer. Has won twice on softer, but may need a drop in grade to get the winning habit? Although they may be after some 'black type' so another listed event may be her next target. Could be interesting should soft ground happen to be the going??

CASTER SUGAR

Never in this race, but a huge step up in class. Now it may have been towed along at the rear without ever being put under pressure ... but ... seriously over-performed on time, and a drop back in grade will show how much better than her current mark is. One to note!

BECQU ADOREE

I include this one because it will be dismissed by most. It is ex-French trained and is clearly taking time to adjust to the different style of racing here. This was a big step forward - on time at least - and her shrewd trainer will place her well(at big odds I hope), and she knows how to win.

I have extended the list right back to the favourite, because all, yes ALL, would have improved their h'cap mark had the winning line, and time been taken when they finished. I think this is a much better way of showing true performances in non-handicap races?

Fortunately, the official handicapper, along with most form students will try to find the 'key' horse on which to based their ratings, and that is likely to be Lady Artemesia? Good news for LADY JANE DIGBY(should it run in a handicap), as the 3rd was only rated 87, beaten 4 lengths. with a 106 rated just behind. Taking a line between the two would give you 97, add 7lbs for the 4l win - Voila! LJB on 104. So the winner goes up 4lbs. second 3lbs, third 1lbs, and Saphira's Fire deemed to have run below its level, but remaining on 104? It will be interesting to see how close that assessment is, but it is far more complicated than my way?

I have not put the ratings in for the whole field because it might be some have just had their peak on this day and never get the same conditions to repeat it, But the ones I have highlighted in red are the ones I would take out of the race. Normally the winner would be in blue, but for the reasons described above she gets purple - Note - any new rating in a non-h'cap race will only be reflected in their odds offered. Should any drop back into h'cap company, take it they are going to be ahead of their mark.

I hope you take note of all this, could be profitable?

Happy punting Gerry

R.ASCOT-Saturday-June19

2.30 CHESHAM STAKES Listed 7f

No selection -reasons given in earlier blog.

3.05 HARDWICKE STAKES G3 12f

114 HARBINGER

106 ALAINMAAR

105 JUKEBOX JURY

105 DUNCAN

Summary - Harbinger's win at Chester was an improvement, but still 2lbs below OR. Chester form does not always get confirmed at Ascot, and his next best is only 106 ... and that makes it a much more open race than the betting suggests? Despite that, he should still win, but Alainmaar will push him all the way.

No bet for me.

3.50 GOLDEN JUBILEE STAKES G1 6f

113 PRIME DEFENDER

113 SOCIETY ROCK

112 TOTAL GALLERY

111 SIR GERRY

110 TRIPLE ASPECT

108 SERIOUS ATTITUDE

Summay - I have extended the list just to show how incredibly tight it is amongst the 'home based' runners, but as there is a host of top class overseas contenders it is, however, another no selection race. If you can ignore Total Gallery's run on Tuesday, then he would have a chance. However, it appears at the moment his attitude is not to try too hard? Sir Gerry and Society Rock are both improving ... BUT ... from Listed class. Which means they may not match their ratings in this company. Prime Defender I never had as one of the most consistent, so to win 3 on the trot is probably too much to ask. That leaves Triple Aspect as a possible ew from those rated .... the list is too long to name all those without a current rating!

4.25 WOKINGHAM STAKES Class 2 Handicap 6f

(weight adj)

124 GENKI

121 JIMMY STYLES

118 PALACE MOON

115 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH

Summary - Having just checked with the 'In Runnung' section (I'll give it plug because it can be very informative - especially when Ben Hutton is doing the research!) and it appears that the more guaranteed pace, courtesy of Mac Gille Eoin, means the far side may be favoured. Which is lucky, as it include my top two! But if something does take them along nearside, then I would expect Palace Moon to be in the shake up. For further info on my 2nd and 3rd rated, can I point you in the direction of my Sunday blog (4.15 Salisbury).

There are a few close up behind Rileys', but he may have the hard edge to keep them at bay.

5.00 DUKE OF EDINBURGH Handicap Class2 12f

(weight adj)

121 MYSTERY STAR

110 IMPOSING

108 CLASSIC VINTAGE

106 FINAL VICTORY

Summary - If Mystery Star handles the very fast ground he looks to have it on this mark. Imposing was impressive in his win and should come on for the run. However, for a horse who has not had much racing it would be no surprise if he is taken out? Classic Vintage, with Murtagh on board, should go well. Final Victory has a bit to find, and fast ground does not usually favour low weights. Plus, there are three others within a couple of lbs, so that will be a tighter battle - Cill Rialaig 105; Sweet Lightning 105; Dangerous Midge 104.

5.35 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES Class 2 Non-handicap 22f

Ratings for these extreme distances are unreliable, No selection.

Well that concludes my Ascot blogs. I hope you have all done well from the info provided. For a change I am in profit too! Have a good day.

Gerry

R.ASCOT-Friday,18th June

2.30 ALBANY STAKES - Group 3 6f

I do not like rating 2yo's this early in the season. For one thing, ratings now are variable to say the least, and to project that into some kind of h'cap mark is sheer folly. That is because the second thing, is that they can improve so much from one run to the next ... so it becomes a guessing game with half the pieces of the puzzle missing.

No selection.

3.05 KING EDWARD V11 STAKES - Group 2 12f

113 AT FIRST SIGHT

105 MONTEROSSO

102 GREEN MOON

99 BULLET TRAIN

Summary - At First Sight had a hard race in the Derby less than 2 weeks ago. He handled the Epsom course very well, but this is a long slog uphill ... a bit different? What I am saying is, if those two reasons knock 10lbs of his rating it will drop him right back into the clutches of a couple of really progressive types, and why I would favour them. I also think it is a sign of things at Ballydoyle that they could not find any other horse that is in good form?

3.50 CORONATION STAKES - Group 1 fillies 8f

The Irish 1000gns quartet having a repeat battle amongst themselves, with a couple from the Newmarket 1000, and the 5th from the French equivalent .... and they may all miss out to TABASSUM.

My ratings for the winners of the above - Bethrah (Irish) 119: Special Duty(English) 112: Special Duty(French) 118 (estimate).

If pressed I would select Music Show because it is the only one that seems to have a marked preference for fast ground. But where Tabassum will fit in I haven't a clue.

A race to watch for me.

4.25 WOLFERTON Listed Handicap Class 1

113 KING'S GAMBIT, plus 8lbs

108 INDIAN DAYS, plus 4lbs

105 BEAUCHAMP XERXES, plus 2lbs

107 RAINBOW PEAK, level

Summary - The going is a concern about the top rated, not having won on very fast ground. The next is Indian Days who may be on a going day. Beauchamp X has not won over this trip, while Rainbow peak should improve on his first run, and is 100% at this distance. Add to the mix at least 3 that could come back to form -Traffic Guard, Eastern Aria, and Halicarnassus - it has the look of another tricky contest?

5.00 QUEEN'S VASE Group 3 16f

No ratings for this distance, so no selection.

5.35 BUCKINGHAM PALACE Handicap Class 2 7f

116 TREADWELL, plus 18lbs

104 DAY OF THE EAGLE, plus 12lbs

108 HIMALYA, plus 5lbs

95 ESOTERICA, plus 3lbs

Summary - Bad race for 3yo's which goes against Treadwell's chance, and the rating coming from Epsom, so no guarantee he will do well here.

Day of the Eagle was a good winner last time, which is why he is likely to start favourite, but the other two could certainly make it interesting.

It will be another one of those awkward days where you may do well to break even on the betting front, but best of luck in your efforts.

Cheers, Gerry

R.ASCOT-Thursday-June17

A less in depth look at today's card, due to lack of time.

2.30 NORFOLK STAKES - 5f

Not a race I can rate accurately, But provisionally:

Dinkum Diamond is 5lbs clear.

Dubai Dynamo and

Excel Bolt are next.

I gave a favourable note on the latter's run in an earlier blog, but a word of warning ... Remember Dortmund? Short priced fav to follow up after a hard race where the front two pulled well clear in their private battle ... well similar applies to Excel Bolt, as he fought back to win a race he had lost half a furlong out. If he is a battler he may have enjoyed the tussle, but being a 2yo I doubt it.

Similar could apply to Stone of Folca who has an equal chance if he is fully recovered from Tuesday's race ... trainer thinks he has?

3.05 RIBBLESDALE STAKES - 12f

104 PRINCIPAL ROLE

104 FATANAH

97 ACQUAINTED

Summary - These are clear of the remainder, but note that they are all rated below their official h'cap mark, so no selection.

3.50 GOLD CUP - 20f

No worthwhile ratings, and too many without a current rating. No selection.

4.25 BRITTANIA STAKES - Class 2 handicap.

102 SEA LORD, plus 7lbs

86 ONE GOOD EMPEROR.plus 5lbs

87 FIREBACK, plus 3lbs

92 HYPNOTIZED, plus 1lb

The high draw may still favour Sea Lord, but not if they all crowd over there. Going stick suggests it is more even today, so as there is pace spread across the track they may well split into 3 groups? One Good Emperor is stepping up in grade, but has a featherweight to carry.

There are a host of others who are on, or near their mark, so it will come down to who has made the biggest improvement, and gets the luck in running.

5.00 HAMPTON COURT STAKES - Class 1 Listed 10f

I could not find a positive rating for any, so no selection.

5.30 KING GEORGE V STAKES - Class 2 Handicap

98 LONDON STRIPE, plus 10lbs

98 CONTRACT CATERER, plus 5lbs

89 BERLING, plus 2lbs

87 BAY WILLOW plus 2lbs

Summary - Only concern about the selection is the ground, it has yet to race on anything faster than good, and Sadlers Wells to boot, AND, a going stick reading of 10 would be FIRM any where but here? Contract Caterer may have rated higher but for interference, and Fallon on board is a plus.

Berling is stepping up in class, but is on the upgrade, so a place chance? Bay Willow was my first Top Spot blog race and has obviously had this as a target after his win .. a bit to find but trainer in fine form.

As I seem to select the wrong ones, I suggest you pick your own, or if you had a selection that matches one from my short-list, so much the better?

Happy punting people.

Cheers Gerry

R.ASCOT-Wednesday-June16

2.30 JERSEY STAKES - 7f:

114 FREE JUDGEMENT

110 LUCKY GENERAL

110 RAINFALL

109 ROCK JOCK

Summary - Ratings stand scutiny. Top comes from the Irish 2000, which Canford Cliffs has upheld. I take Rainfall over Lucky General, despite the trainer/jockey combination of the latter, as his rating came over 7f. Rock Jock gets ahead of the remainder on his run behind Angel's Pursuit, and that form was upheld on Sunday.

3.05 WINDSOR FOREST STAKES - 8f

:

109 ANTARA

109 GOLDEN STREAM

108 PYRRHA

SAPHRESA

Summary - Very tight between the top three, but the winner may be the one I cannot rate, but looks to go well fresh, and at a slightly higher level than 'home' contingent.

3.50 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES - 10f:

118 TAZEEZ

118 GLASS HARMONIUM

115 DEBUSSY

With no ratings for the likes of; ALLYBAR, BYWORD, PRESVIS, and TWICE OVER, it is quite possible that none of my top three will even make the frame? Presvis and Allybar have got to prove themselves post MEYDAN, and Twice Over needs a couple of races to be at his best ... Which leaves Byword as the most likely winner, but the rated horses are high enough to make it a true contest.

4.25 ROYAL HUNT CUP - 8f h'cap:

High drawn.

ACROSTIC

MOYNAHAN

INVISIBLE MAN

Low drawn.

DANDY BOY

MANASSAS

DOCOFTHEBAY

There are two key races involved in the selections -FAREER and DANDY BOY, and the Official marks are pretty near mine for the former, where I give Dandy Boy's lot 4 or 5lbs in hand. To complicate matters, it may be the far side have the better pace with St Moritz(also 5lbs to the good, but from a class 3, 7f race) drawn high, and going stick suggesting that far rail will be quicker. That being the case, I will take my top two to fight it out. Invisible Man could be better that the ratings indicate, as I have him on the minus 5lbs mark, but the jockey knows his way around Ascot, and could easily run into a place if drawn on the right side.

My low drawn trio are very capable of winning, if it were a level playing field, so any hint that the stands rail is best come post time, they are the three to concentrate on.

5.00 QUEEN MARY STAKES - 5f:

All these two year olds are stepping up in class, and with such limited data of a single run in most cases, I shall give this a miss.

5.35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP,LISTED - 8f:

Again, very difficult to put accurate ratings on these, but Lolly For Dolly came out best in the best race - Irish 1000gns - and despite top-weight, makes most appeal.

Timepiece and Blue Maiden could both be a danger if back to their best, as could others. So another race to leave alone.

3.40 Sals Jun 13th

This is the Top Spot race for Sunday.

3.40 Salisbury 6f C1 Listed:

SIR GERRY - 111 plus 6lbs

Not an obvious race to choose, because the proverbial blanket covered the first six home. However, Sir Gerry deserves credit for being able to finish faster, and being one of the least fancied of the others. Clearly from the betting it suggests each trainer brought their horse thinking they could win? So to put up a rating of plus 6lbs shows he is well up to this level.

ELNAWIN - 109, plus 6lbs.

Had a chance of winning but for the late finish of the above. Keeps trying at this level, but may be a nice Class 2 conditions stakes will see him get a reward for this excellent effort.

ANGEL'S PURSUIT - 114, plus 5lbs.

This performance suggests his turn is not that far away, although may have been feeling the ground close? A little moisture would probably suit next time.

JIMMY STYLES - 111, plus 6lbs.

This is looking for a good Class 2 handicap where he can use his pace to lie up with the leaders and still have something at the finish. It was just the latter that kept him from winning at this level here.

PALACE MOON - 110, plus 5lbs.

This was the well supported favourite in this competitive heat, but had absolute no luck in running from the moment he reared up leaving the stalls. The fact that he finished so close suggests the market support was justified. Given he would have rated higher probably means this is his level, and should collect in similar shortly.

SIROCCO BREEZE - 114, plus 4lbs.

Another well supported but not quite up to it today. Nevertheless, he has shown a good level of form, and improved his rating. Not likely to be put up much, may even drop a lb or two? Where they go from he will be interesting, but one to watch out for if the money comes for him again?

R.ASCOT-Tuesday,15th June

In race card order:

2.30 QUEEN ANNE STAKE:

132 RIP VAN WINKLE

122 PACO BOY

GOLDIKOVA

CALMING INFLUENCE

Summary - Rip Van Winkle stands out. If SEA THE STARS was the best horse in decades, then the horse that made him run to his best rating, and only beaten a length. That horse is RVW. He is a course winner - very important, as many do not take to the 'springy' feel since they relaid the track. He beat Paco Boy at Goodwood last year. Yes, PACO BOY may well have improved, but remember, Rip Van Winkle hardly entered a top race without something going wrong in his preparations last year - I have heard no such stories this time around?

A fully fit RVW is a confident selection, despite the presence of two strong contenders that I have no rating for.

Goldikova - on a line through RP ratings last year, I think she is about on a 129 rating

CALMING INFLUENCE - On a line through CAT JUNIOR, this has the beating of Paco Boy. Very tenuous because it involves Meydan races, and Paco could have won by more?

3.05 KINGS STAND STAKES:

125 BORDERLESCOTT

123 EQUIANO

122 KINGSGATE NATIVE

NICCONI

Summary - Very tight between the home trio. All three have good form on the surface. Will the Australian horse be good enough? I may get some late news on that, but at a quick shows it can win at the highest level, and being a hold up horse it will get the race run to suit.

Just because he should be coming to his normal peak I will take BORDELESCOTT to repel all comers. Markab is best of the rest.

3.50 ST JAMES PALACE STAKES:

122 CANFORD CLIFFS

118 MAKFI

115 DICK TURPIN

Summary - Everything else has to improve to beat this trio, or in the case of Beethoven, run up to his last year's best. Canford Cliffs heads the confirmed ratings, but just as he was entitled to improve on his next run, after finishing behind Makfi, so could Makfi. Then you have Dick Turpin, who also improved. I said in my Derby blog that I thought the French 2000gns looked rock solid, and so it proved with the winner trouncing the French Derby field? There is a reasonable argument to say that that 2000 race was about 15lbs superior(on time) to the 1000. If you say that Special Duty also improved from one race to the next, and ran near its 117 rating in the French 1000

... that would have the 2000gns winner on 132, and Dick Turpin on 131

On that basis I think Dick Turpin has an excellent chance of finishing in front Canford Cliffs once more, and with the sting being taken out of ground, he is better to race now rather than find the course has all dried out later in the week? Makfi is a danger. An uncomplicated horse who runs straight as an arrow. Canford Cliffs has the course experience, and the deadly turn of foot. Fascinating race.

4.25 COVENTRY STAKES

108 SAMUEL MORSE

89 HIGH STANDING

88+ STRONG SUIT

83 KLAMMER

Summary - If only the Coventry stakes ran to form it would be easy - It rarely does!

Samuel Morse is the clear selection, but no doubt something will show improved form to make sure it is not the walk-over it may appear.

5.00 ASCOT STAKES:

This year's running does not look that competitive as some, For that reason I would side with TYRELLS WOOD, who ran a good race at last years meeting.

5.35 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES:

82 BOUNDLESS SPIRIT

82 CHILWORTH LAD

METROPOLITAN MAN

SPEIGHTOWNS KID

Summary - With such low ratings I expect this will not be one for the home contingent? There are a host of Irish challengers, for which I have no ratings for. Likewise the American horse, but they usually try out with their weakest entry first, so I suspect this April foal with only be placed. It may have had only one run, but you can guarantee it will be up and ready for it.

However, SPEIGHTOWNS KID intrigues me. Why bring an unraced horse over to start at this level ... if it wasn't pretty special? G. Gibbons on board. Hey, why not, it is a very open race to my mind.

Best of luck with all your selections, these are mine.

Gerry

New Angle on Top Spot

It has been apparent over the last few weeks that highlighting the winners of fast run races is probably not the best use of the information. The reason, it appears, is that the winners tend to go up a grade, along with a higher OR, means they do not win that often. So for future Top Spot features, the WINNER will be highlighted in blue, but the horse(s) from the race worth watching will be highlighted in RED.

This should mean that they will not be penalised as much as the winners, and more likely to stay within that grade, and may be at better odds to boot. That is the theory, let's see how it works in practice?

2.40 Sandown, 5f - 11th June : DRIFT AND DREAM - 83, plus 12lbs

PHEROUSA 72, plus 9lbs. This was a 3yo h'cap, so its rise will be relative to the winner's new rating. It is the second time this horse has appeared in my list of good also rans, so it was clearly no fluke. In a Class 4 h'cap where it can come from of a good pace should be ideal next time.

3.15 Sandown 7f - 11th June : ECLIPTIC - 85.

TOULAIN - 88+?. This is the horse Frankie fell off just before the line ...Clearly useful as this was a quick time, even for Class 4 two year olds. It came to win its race comfortably, so a similar C4 should be a formality with this experience behind it. It will be a short price, particularly if the winner follows up first.

3.50 Sandown 8f - 11th June : FONTLY - 93, plus 9lbs

INNOCUOUS -86, plus 6lbs. If he can get away with a small rise, then he too will be worthy of an interest in a Class 4 h'cap. He did not have the best of races, yet manage to finish a close up 4th. Suggestion that softer(than G/F) ground may suit, but worthy of a notebook entry.

6.15 Goodwood 8f 11th June : HEAR THE ROAR 85

TARIQ TOO - 75 Not a very good mark for a Class 4 maiden, but finished just behind an odds-on rival to get 3rd, on only second start, and first on turf. Breeding suggests that soft ground will favour it, and with expected improvement from that run it should lose the maiden tag soon.

(Second Simcock runner on this list, which may suggest that yard is not far off a winner or two)

3.15 York 6f 12th June : VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR 99, plus 9lbs. Class 2 H'cap.

IVER BRIDGE LAD - 109, plus 8lbs. Very much a case of showing some decent form at last.

PASTORAL PLAYER - 93, minus 2lbs. Nevertheless this was a good finish from a tardy start, so worth more than the bare rating, especially if he gets dropped a couple of pounds.

NOSEDIVE - 75 Well below its official mark, but this horse has been highly tried over further and stayed on nicely, without being involved in the finish. So, with a drop in the weights and a move back up to 7f, or a stiff 6f, it could well come in at a big price in the near future.

Happy punting folks.

LOST IN THE MOMENT

The Top Spot goes to:

LOST IN THE MOMENT - 92, plus 19lbs. 8f Newbury June 10th

A comfortable winner of this competitive Class 5 h'cap, and give his trainer, this is already a grade or two higher. However, I would like it to confirm that mark in the better company before getting too carried away with this 92 mark. It is unlikely all of the 19lbs will be swallowed up after being reassessed, but a big rise and a rise in class could spell danger.

DOMINATION - 77, plus 10lbs. 12f Newbury June 10th

This also won a class 5 3yo h'cap, and being a bit more likely to stay close to that grade next time, could well follow up.

AKTIA - 80, plus 13lbs. 10f Haydock June 10th

This is yet another of the 3yo class 5 winners to get a clear margin over their Official mark. It was a good performance in a fairly good race, and as such, should be okay in similar next time.

AL AASIFH also deserves a mention on the same Haydock card, with a provisional mark of 80, well above Class 5 2yo maiden standards. That could go on to much better things.

Nottingham, June 10th was a pretty low grade affair, and explains why Memphis Man was top from a Class 6 h'cap over 6f. He got a rating of 75, plus 10lbs.

REQUISITE - 73, plus 12lbs. 6f Yarmouth, June 10th

Another from the lower ranks, but is much more likely to stay within the bounds of Class 5, given his starting point, so is justified in being given a Top Spot honour.

Volatilis is worth a mention, plus 10lbs for a win in a C6 6f non-h'cap, going up to 74. it too, could feature in similar if in the same mood.

SUNRAIDER

The Top Spot goes to:

SUNRAIDER - 103, plus 14 - 6f Haydock, June 9th

This ran a very quick time compared to the rest of the card, even allowing for the straight course running faster, thanks to the rail being moved on the round course. This is only a provisional rating, as I am still behind on my double checks. However, as it stands, this is above the normal Class 3 norm, and should repeat if not tried too highly.

TANGERINE TREES - 87, plus 10lbs - 6f Hamilton, June 9th

Standing dish at Hamilton, and obliged once more in this Class 4 h'cap. Did not win by far, so not much of the new rating will be lost, so he should go close again.

There was not any thing outstanding from races on June 8th

Best of luck, Gerry

DUSTER

The Top Spot for June 7th is:

DUSTER - 85, plus 11lbs 6f Folkestone, June 7th.

Only a modest Class 4 h'cap, but 85 bodes well in similar. The sort that could pop up at one of those summer evening meetings at Goodwood, at a big price. It would have to be when the usual standards are well down, but Folkestone and Goodwood require similar types.

MISS KECK - 83, plus 11(and the unlucky Dan Buoy - 89, plus 11lbs) 17f Pontefract June 7th.

They were the best by far, on time. Class 4 stayers will usually find a race, and with this margin less whatever their new OR brings, should make it a little more comfortable next time.

Nothing of note came from Brighton, June 6th.

These Top Spot should soon start winning, or at the very least, point you in the direction of those who finished close up, as ones to keep an eye on.

All for now, Gerry

WORKFORCE

Top spot horses for June 5th:

WORKFORCE - 120, plus 12lbs 12f Epsom June 5th

Not the most improved over the weekend, or even at this course, but his 120 is only so low because it was a weak Derby field, and he himself starts from a very low base, in this grade. However, he dismissed the rest in a manner of a horse capable of posting a rating in the 130's. But for now he is stuck with a modest 120, but he will progress without doubt. Whatever the excuses for the others, he was the one who turned up on the day.

BERTOLIVER - 90, plus 17lbs 5f Epsom June 5th

When things go right this horse is capable of posting very quick times. He has done it before and never followed it up consistently enough to mark him down as a horse to follow... Unless the new trainer has found the magic key?

FORTUNI - 97, plus 12lbs 12f Epsom June 5th

A very respectful rating for this Class 2 handicapper. Should have a bit in hand even after being reassessed. On the upgrade and one to follow.

FLIPANDO - 106, plus 12lbs 6f Epsom June 5th

The old boy certainly has a turn of foot off a fast run race, and could well follow up. At C2 level they are usually are good for pace, but he always needs luck in running. Merits his 106.

EXCEL BOLT - 83, well above race grade. 6f Musselburgh June 5th

If you saw the race, it might not have looked that special ... other than how he got up to win??

COCKTAIL CHARLIE, also 83 - deserves credit too, being short-headed on the line. The time was very quick for 2yo's, and both showed a willing attitude. They will be a danger to many in the better 2yo races.

HARRIS TWEED - 102, plus 16lbs 12f Musselburgh June 5th

He certainly took this field apart, and will be hammered in his ratings, but very much back to his best. This was an above average card for this course, and this Class 2 h'cap looked tight going into it. It depends on his new OR where he goes from here, but he was on fire this day.

SPACE STATION - 82, plus 12lbs Lingfield June 5th

Two good efforts on the trot, and should not be raised too much for this. Another win at this level, Class 5, could well be on the cards.

DAY OF THE EAGLE - 104, plus 20lbs 7f Doncaster June 5th

Excellent rating for a Class 3 h'cap, and one to watch out in this grade.

SEA LORD - 102, plus 11lbs 8f Doncaster June 5th

Another top performance, this time in Class 2 grade. It is hard to get a big mark the higher the level, unless you are on the upgrade, and Sea Lord fits that bill to a tee.

TOP SPOT RUNNERS

These are a list of horses that would have appeared on the Top Spot list, if I had been doing my blog a month or so ago.

3.15 Epsom - HAWKEYETHENOO - 107, plus 19lbs.

Fine in this grade. Only question mark is the course. Newmarket is a far cry from Epsom?

5.20 Epsom - BALDIMAR - 99, plus 6lbs.

No problems with the course with this - won this race last year. Drawn near the pace and running in the same grade. Not a given by any means, but every chance.

3.40 Musselburgh - INGLEBY LADY - 102, plus 5lbs ZIGGY LEE - 94, plus 8lbs

At first glance Ziggy Lee would appear to have the better chance, receiving 11lbs and only 8lbs between them ... But, Ingleby Lady's rating came from this C2 grade, whereas the other was C4!

However, Ziggy Lee did get an 86 rating in a C2, behind Hamish McG, in the race today. That leaves only Carson's claim as a plus? For that reason I would stick with the higher weighted, on the same terms as Hamish McGonagall, at a better price?

5.50 Lingfield - SPACE STATION - 82, plus 12lbs.

Right grade and distance, well drawn but yet to win a race?

8.05 Newcastle - THAT'LL DO NICELY - 69, plus 4lbs.

Dropped to 10f on this stiffer track, otherwise okay.

CANSILI STAR

Fully deserving of top spot:

CANSILI STAR - 108, plus 23lbs. 7f Epsom 4th June

Top notch performance in a Class 2 3yo h'cap. It has to take this level to another track, as Epsom is quite unique, and like Chester, form does not always hold up elsewhere. However, the time rating is sound.

SHOCK! HORROR! - Not a single other horse at this venue passed its original rating?!?

Mainly because of the high quality card of course. Fame and Glory was down 11lbs, 117 - even less than his Curragh rating. The Oaks winner only managed a 99, minus 8lbs. However, most proved their class, and higher rating will follow that is for sure.

NINTH HOUSE - 75,plus 15lbs. 8f Doncaster 4th June.

Not an exceptional rating for a Class 4, but it almost certainly means it will stay in that grade, and may strike a sequence with this amount in hand?

NOMOREBLONDES - 76, plus 13lbs. 5f Catterick 4th June.

Similar to the above, winning at a lower level Class 5, but kept to similar has enough in hand to be worth watching out for?

Monterey is worth a mention on the same card, as he recorded a time above average for a C5 maiden at that venue.

LUCKY FLYER - 77, plus 10lbs. 5f Bath 4th June.

Very good rating for a C5 h'cap, and could go on at this level. Bath is a quirky course, so it may pay to wait until she returns there?

DERBY 2010

Here are my time-based ratings for the 2010 Epsom Derby.

in alphabetical order, my ratings are on the left:

105 AL AZIR - Finished 9th in the 2000gns and that is his time-based rating. Will improve on that first run, but how much from a low base and only a so-so run, is open to question.

?? AT FIRST SIGHT - Likely pace setter. No rating

106 AZMEEL - Rating from a bunch finish a Chester 10f Group 3 race. Not an instant standout, but with improvement for the extra 2f, it may be involved.

91 BULLET TRAIN - Poor rating for a Group 3 at Lingfield. Track and distance should suit, but whether he has the class to compete remains a serious doubt.

?? BUZZWORD - Improved markedly from the 2000gns here, to the French 2000, so that a progressive profile emerges. If there was a bit more stamina in his pedigree he could be a serious player - Pivotal - Danehill does not inspire. It would be fairly easy to put a rating of 112 for that last run, as that race looks rock solid. It raced a full second faster than the Fillies race earlier, so as a prep for the Derby it was ideal ... but will it stay??

106 COORDINATED CUT - Another with a poor Group 3 rating, and only 3rd. Improved on a 98 rating from a Class 2 event but needs am awful lot more here. Will struggle to make the frame without such improvement.

89 JAN VERMEER - Hardly considered worthy of a mention for this race whilst his better known stable mate was involved. Now, after beating a poor field for a Group 3, run at a crawl, he leapt into favouritism. Yes , he had good 2yo form. Yes he won this race convincingly, but 89 rating would not cut much ice in a class 2 h'cap, let alone the most prestigious Group 1 race in the world. He still might win, but his price is largely about the win of a crappy G3.

?? MIDAS TOUCH -His win in a 4 horse race may be seen as a bit weak, but the time was smart, compared to the Irish 1000gns and a G3 for older horses run on the same card. He is the one solid performer, with a rating around 115(est.) going into this race. Normal improvement should see him notch around 124-6 and makes him the one to beat.

104 REWILDING - Here is an exciting prospect, but whether this race come too soon in his career only time will tell. He got first run on those who came from well off the pace, in his Group 3 win. However, despite the good impression, the time rating is not good enough - Much slower, comparatively, to the Oaks winner's time earlier, in her prep, on the same card. Big improvement needed, but a hard earned place is not out of the question.

103 TED SPREAD - Yet another with a poor Group 3 rating. His at Chester, where rallied gamely to win. Course and distance should not be a problem ... whether he is good enough is?

107 WORKFORCE - Struggled with his 'bit' when second in his prep race. He may not have beaten the winner that day, but his rating would have been closer to what is required. Still inexperienced, but has a trainer who will have him right on the day. A player methinks?

Conclusion - With known ratings tight, it is all down to who has made the biggest improvement. The O'Brien team are beginning to click now, so MIDAS TOUCH is the most likely winner. The remaining places are Workforce, Jan Vermeer, and Rewilding, perming any 2 from 3. But for a completely 'out left field' small stakes EW, then Buzzword would be the one ...

However, I do repeat, there is no outstanding rating on view, so it is who turns up on the day.

Best of luck,

Gerry