I do not like rating 2yo's this early in the season. For one thing, ratings now are variable to say the least, and to project that into some kind of h'cap mark is sheer folly. That is because the second thing, is that they can improve so much from one run to the next ... so it becomes a guessing game with half the pieces of the puzzle missing.
No selection.
3.05 KING EDWARD V11 STAKES - Group 2 12f
113 AT FIRST SIGHT
105 MONTEROSSO
102 GREEN MOON
99 BULLET TRAIN
Summary - At First Sight had a hard race in the Derby less than 2 weeks ago. He handled the Epsom course very well, but this is a long slog uphill ... a bit different? What I am saying is, if those two reasons knock 10lbs of his rating it will drop him right back into the clutches of a couple of really progressive types, and why I would favour them. I also think it is a sign of things at Ballydoyle that they could not find any other horse that is in good form?
3.50 CORONATION STAKES - Group 1 fillies 8f
The Irish 1000gns quartet having a repeat battle amongst themselves, with a couple from the Newmarket 1000, and the 5th from the French equivalent .... and they may all miss out to TABASSUM.
My ratings for the winners of the above - Bethrah (Irish) 119: Special Duty(English) 112: Special Duty(French) 118 (estimate).
If pressed I would select Music Show because it is the only one that seems to have a marked preference for fast ground. But where Tabassum will fit in I haven't a clue.
A race to watch for me.
4.25 WOLFERTON Listed Handicap Class 1
113 KING'S GAMBIT, plus 8lbs
108 INDIAN DAYS, plus 4lbs
105 BEAUCHAMP XERXES, plus 2lbs
107 RAINBOW PEAK, level
Summary - The going is a concern about the top rated, not having won on very fast ground. The next is Indian Days who may be on a going day. Beauchamp X has not won over this trip, while Rainbow peak should improve on his first run, and is 100% at this distance. Add to the mix at least 3 that could come back to form -Traffic Guard, Eastern Aria, and Halicarnassus - it has the look of another tricky contest?
5.00 QUEEN'S VASE Group 3 16f
No ratings for this distance, so no selection.
5.35 BUCKINGHAM PALACE Handicap Class 2 7f
116 TREADWELL, plus 18lbs
104 DAY OF THE EAGLE, plus 12lbs
108 HIMALYA, plus 5lbs
95 ESOTERICA, plus 3lbs
Summary - Bad race for 3yo's which goes against Treadwell's chance, and the rating coming from Epsom, so no guarantee he will do well here.
Day of the Eagle was a good winner last time, which is why he is likely to start favourite, but the other two could certainly make it interesting.
It will be another one of those awkward days where you may do well to break even on the betting front, but best of luck in your efforts.
Cheers, Gerry
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