New Angle on Top Spot

It has been apparent over the last few weeks that highlighting the winners of fast run races is probably not the best use of the information. The reason, it appears, is that the winners tend to go up a grade, along with a higher OR, means they do not win that often. So for future Top Spot features, the WINNER will be highlighted in blue, but the horse(s) from the race worth watching will be highlighted in RED.

This should mean that they will not be penalised as much as the winners, and more likely to stay within that grade, and may be at better odds to boot. That is the theory, let's see how it works in practice?

2.40 Sandown, 5f - 11th June : DRIFT AND DREAM - 83, plus 12lbs

PHEROUSA 72, plus 9lbs. This was a 3yo h'cap, so its rise will be relative to the winner's new rating. It is the second time this horse has appeared in my list of good also rans, so it was clearly no fluke. In a Class 4 h'cap where it can come from of a good pace should be ideal next time.

3.15 Sandown 7f - 11th June : ECLIPTIC - 85.

TOULAIN - 88+?. This is the horse Frankie fell off just before the line ...Clearly useful as this was a quick time, even for Class 4 two year olds. It came to win its race comfortably, so a similar C4 should be a formality with this experience behind it. It will be a short price, particularly if the winner follows up first.

3.50 Sandown 8f - 11th June : FONTLY - 93, plus 9lbs

INNOCUOUS -86, plus 6lbs. If he can get away with a small rise, then he too will be worthy of an interest in a Class 4 h'cap. He did not have the best of races, yet manage to finish a close up 4th. Suggestion that softer(than G/F) ground may suit, but worthy of a notebook entry.

6.15 Goodwood 8f 11th June : HEAR THE ROAR 85

TARIQ TOO - 75 Not a very good mark for a Class 4 maiden, but finished just behind an odds-on rival to get 3rd, on only second start, and first on turf. Breeding suggests that soft ground will favour it, and with expected improvement from that run it should lose the maiden tag soon.

(Second Simcock runner on this list, which may suggest that yard is not far off a winner or two)

3.15 York 6f 12th June : VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR 99, plus 9lbs. Class 2 H'cap.

IVER BRIDGE LAD - 109, plus 8lbs. Very much a case of showing some decent form at last.

PASTORAL PLAYER - 93, minus 2lbs. Nevertheless this was a good finish from a tardy start, so worth more than the bare rating, especially if he gets dropped a couple of pounds.

NOSEDIVE - 75 Well below its official mark, but this horse has been highly tried over further and stayed on nicely, without being involved in the finish. So, with a drop in the weights and a move back up to 7f, or a stiff 6f, it could well come in at a big price in the near future.

Happy punting folks.