Warwick 11f Class 1 Listed:
LADY JANE DIGBY - 113, plus 9lbs
Should not go up too much(see below) and could follow up at a similar level - i.e. a reasonable Listed race at one of the lesser courses. This distance suits, as does 'good' ground.
CASSIQUE LADY - 104, plus 10lbs
Has raced over further, but has not won on firm since her first run.
LADY ARTEMISIA
This was a bit of a step up in class and could have done with faster ground. Worth noting nto.
SAPHIRA'S FIRE
Ran a sound race, but her profile reads like she needs to drop a grade.
UVINZA
She has contested some fairly tough races but just seems to lack that extra gear ... at this level?
HONIMEIRE
She ran Strawberrydaicquiri to a head over 9f, so probably needs to drop back to 10f or less.
DANEHILL'S PEARL
Never got into this race, first try over longer. Has won twice on softer, but may need a drop in grade to get the winning habit? Although they may be after some 'black type' so another listed event may be her next target. Could be interesting should soft ground happen to be the going??
CASTER SUGAR
Never in this race, but a huge step up in class. Now it may have been towed along at the rear without ever being put under pressure ... but ... seriously over-performed on time, and a drop back in grade will show how much better than her current mark is. One to note!
BECQU ADOREE
I include this one because it will be dismissed by most. It is ex-French trained and is clearly taking time to adjust to the different style of racing here. This was a big step forward - on time at least - and her shrewd trainer will place her well(at big odds I hope), and she knows how to win.
I have extended the list right back to the favourite, because all, yes ALL, would have improved their h'cap mark had the winning line, and time been taken when they finished. I think this is a much better way of showing true performances in non-handicap races?
Fortunately, the official handicapper, along with most form students will try to find the 'key' horse on which to based their ratings, and that is likely to be Lady Artemesia? Good news for LADY JANE DIGBY(should it run in a handicap), as the 3rd was only rated 87, beaten 4 lengths. with a 106 rated just behind. Taking a line between the two would give you 97, add 7lbs for the 4l win - Voila! LJB on 104. So the winner goes up 4lbs. second 3lbs, third 1lbs, and Saphira's Fire deemed to have run below its level, but remaining on 104? It will be interesting to see how close that assessment is, but it is far more complicated than my way?
I have not put the ratings in for the whole field because it might be some have just had their peak on this day and never get the same conditions to repeat it, But the ones I have highlighted in red are the ones I would take out of the race. Normally the winner would be in blue, but for the reasons described above she gets purple - Note - any new rating in a non-h'cap race will only be reflected in their odds offered. Should any drop back into h'cap company, take it they are going to be ahead of their mark.
I hope you take note of all this, could be profitable?
Happy punting Gerry
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