Saturday, 14 April 2012

APRIL 14th ...

The day after Friday the 13th ...

Oh yes, it is Grand National Saturday.

Regular readers (lol) will know I do not 'Do' the winter game ... even in Spring. But for those desperate for another tit bit of information, I did glance at the card.
The first thing to note is that it is a big field, and that means 'luck in running' as well as ability.
The second thing, partly because of a slightly longer break between this and Cheltenham, means it has a bit more class about it.
However I went just below the top order to find one that looks interesting at a price:

4.15 AINTREE .... CAPPA BLEU.

I like a horse that can win at Haydock, has this race in mind - i.e. misses Cheltenahm - and has a reasonable weight. Cappa Bleu fits the bill nicely.

On the flat it is a pretty modest affair, but as I do not 'do' the AW either, that leaves Newcastle.

2.10 NEWCASTLE ..... TRES CORONAS - EW

He ran behind West End Lad at Doncaster ( I've got it right this time, I checked!), and was well beaten. However, he did a similar thing last season, and on his second run came up with a good second at Chester. His best effort came here at Newcastle in the summer and clocked a rating above his current mark. For that reason I think he is a good ew selection.
There is a slight doubt as to whether he can win with a 'Gosden' horse coming into it from just two runs on the AW. But I think that is worth opposing as turf form generally requires more winning than AW races of a similar grade. It is unknown whether soft ground at Newcastle will suit(big difference to polytrack), and is up against a bigger field of seasoned handicappers.
West End Lad produced could figures for his first time out win, but that has been swallowed up by his new mark, so needs to improve.
Hence the selection - Tres Coronas each way

Have a good day...

No comments:

Post a Comment