CHARLIE COOL continues to improve, now moving up to 91 at Ripon yesterday, 25th May. That was a Class 3 h'cap on changing ground. However, tread carefully if it goes up in grade!
The only time I feel it is okay to use the rating from a lower grade is if the whole field has moved up too. For example, Bay Willow may well tackle a Class 4 3yo h'cap now, which his rating suggests he will do well at that level, but only because others will be in a similar position. Class 3 would be tough, and an all-aged h'cap, even class 4 would be 'iffy' until proved at that level.
I only looked at one race today - 3.15 AYR: Class 5 H'cap
The favourite Cheers For Thea is vulnerable as I only rate at 62 for last win, and in a Class 6.
Top weight Whipma Whopma Gate is on 71, so plus 4, but also Class 6.
Two are unraced, but Ykikamoocow has been racing at this C5 level - possible danger
However, the horse who has its shortcomings, but is clear top rated is
LIGHT DUBAI
I have this on 74 from its C5 second at Warwick - that is plus 10!
The note of caution is because it reads like a one pace horse that is looking for a weak race?
The plus point is K.Fallon takes the ride.
The negatives, apart from the above, it may need soft ground to slow the others up at the finish, and it is still a maiden at 4??
Dangerous to leave out, but at a bigger price, may be worth a chance?
That's all folks, thank you for reading this. Good luck.
Cheers, Gerry
Hi Gerry
ReplyDeletenice blog and worth the read... 3.15 Ayr I make the favourite Cheers For Thea last run worth 65 it won readily and was eased at the finish - it also in my book achieved a rate of 74 on the all weather in a class 4 --not to be taken on as a lay methinks. am well interested in Graceful descent who runs well fresh but does seem to need a bit of cut but has decent form on this ground has achieved a mark of 74 in a 1m novice event over a mile on g/sft at Ayr
Thanks for the input. It seems we may both be wrong,with the money coming for the Alston runner Saving Grace? If I get time I will have a look at the Hilary Needler ... but don't hold your breath as it is a busy day at work.
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