I thought I would apply a similar approach to yesterday, and make class adjustments. alas time has restricted me to the first 16 or so in the betting.
Goodwood 3.50: 6f Class 2 Stewards Cup handicap.
In order of merit, after adjusting for weight;
HAWKEYETHENOO - In not too great form at present,, and I would guess any ease in the going from a passing shower would help, but is the only runner to get a high rating from a Group 1 race earlier in the season, and did bounce back to form to win this last year.
NINJAGO comes jointly next best from a Class 2 event. Quite consistent and 6f would appear to be his trip.
HEAVEN'S GUEST got an excellent rating from just beating yesterday's Group 1 winner, but don't take that too literally, as the other horse improved for going at a quicker pace. Still, with a big weight concession, he should be in the mix.
WHOZTHECAT is another who could be well there on current form, and his trail-blazing style is well suited to this course. Same claiming jockey that has won on him the last twice in Ireland, and is really consistent at the moment. Another bold show can be expected.
DINKUM DIAMOND is next best from his run at Epsom, and is the sort of horse who is due a big h'cap win. Today could be his day.
Of the remainder of those I rated, I would give HOOF IT a shout, as he got a decent rating in his only run so far this season. That was a Listed contest, and he is the winner from two years ago. Improvement to come from the first run would see him go close.
Brief, but to the point. Any of the above could win, but all bar Whozthecat need to be where the pace is. He will plough a lone furrow on the stand's side.
Have a good day ...
Saturday, 3 August 2013
Friday, 2 August 2013
GOODWOOD FRIDAY 2013
Or more particularly, the Group 2 5f race. I warn you know this is very much a mixed bag of abilities.
As is the weather forecast/going forecast. I have just checked the RP site; On the course details it gives good, good to soft in places, and in particular, a going stick report of 7.3 to match that description. I scroll down to the 'course correspondent' who reports ' After a dry night, the going is now good, good to firm on the round course'? Strangely that was how it finished up yesterday ...mmmn. Either he is not at the course, and did not check that there had been rain overnight while he ate his breakfast miles away ... Or the course details are a replay of the Tuesday/Wednesday card's details, or even early yesterday, which I think quickly became 'good' as soon as the sun got to work?
Either way, it is very unhelpful and very sloppy from the RP!
Goodwood 3.40: 5f Group 2 King George Stakes
Now this is a somewhat abbreviated way of separating the chance of the runners, but you will see why?
The best, on my ratings, from Class 2, and who have the most to do to win in 3 grades higher ..
SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is just 1lbs above: Moviesta and Elusivity
From Listed Grade, who still have a tough job on their hands;
MEDICEAN MAN who is 6lbs ahead of Ladies Are Forever, who in turn is only a lb ahead of one of my favourites, Borderlescott, as well as a few others further below. The latter will at least improve on his first run, and for racing here, but I wish he had stayed at the lower grade because he will find this very tough.
Love him to win or get a placed though.
From the Group 3 category it is not so clear cut, ans many have race in the two grades above them. But from my ratings I have the following order, as ratings in the higher level are not as good;
SPIRIT QUARTZ is 4lbs clear of Kingsgate Native(who does have a rating from G2 that gives him a chance), and surprisingly, Tickled Pink who is the current favourite, is a whopping 13lbs below from his last run. While Definightly is 10lbs below from a rating last season, on soft ground.
The only one horse that got a decent rating from a higher grade, Group 1 in fact, as non of the others could better their G3 ratings, although from previous seasons, horses like Masamah would be well in the mix.
So the horse with the 'classiest' rating is:
SWISS SPIRIT.
Conclusion: If the above ratings are sound, and don't allow for any massive improvers, the order should be:
1, - SWISS SPIRIT
2, - SPIRIT QUARTZ
3 - KINGSGATE NATIVE
Of course, that is without taking the going preferences into account ...
Have a good day ...
As is the weather forecast/going forecast. I have just checked the RP site; On the course details it gives good, good to soft in places, and in particular, a going stick report of 7.3 to match that description. I scroll down to the 'course correspondent' who reports ' After a dry night, the going is now good, good to firm on the round course'? Strangely that was how it finished up yesterday ...mmmn. Either he is not at the course, and did not check that there had been rain overnight while he ate his breakfast miles away ... Or the course details are a replay of the Tuesday/Wednesday card's details, or even early yesterday, which I think quickly became 'good' as soon as the sun got to work?
Either way, it is very unhelpful and very sloppy from the RP!
Goodwood 3.40: 5f Group 2 King George Stakes
Now this is a somewhat abbreviated way of separating the chance of the runners, but you will see why?
The best, on my ratings, from Class 2, and who have the most to do to win in 3 grades higher ..
SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is just 1lbs above: Moviesta and Elusivity
From Listed Grade, who still have a tough job on their hands;
MEDICEAN MAN who is 6lbs ahead of Ladies Are Forever, who in turn is only a lb ahead of one of my favourites, Borderlescott, as well as a few others further below. The latter will at least improve on his first run, and for racing here, but I wish he had stayed at the lower grade because he will find this very tough.
Love him to win or get a placed though.
From the Group 3 category it is not so clear cut, ans many have race in the two grades above them. But from my ratings I have the following order, as ratings in the higher level are not as good;
SPIRIT QUARTZ is 4lbs clear of Kingsgate Native(who does have a rating from G2 that gives him a chance), and surprisingly, Tickled Pink who is the current favourite, is a whopping 13lbs below from his last run. While Definightly is 10lbs below from a rating last season, on soft ground.
The only one horse that got a decent rating from a higher grade, Group 1 in fact, as non of the others could better their G3 ratings, although from previous seasons, horses like Masamah would be well in the mix.
So the horse with the 'classiest' rating is:
SWISS SPIRIT.
Conclusion: If the above ratings are sound, and don't allow for any massive improvers, the order should be:
1, - SWISS SPIRIT
2, - SPIRIT QUARTZ
3 - KINGSGATE NATIVE
Of course, that is without taking the going preferences into account ...
Have a good day ...
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