There is a simple answer to this puzzle, and a more complicated one, and it revolves around DAWN APPROACH, naturally. If he is a genuine middle distance horse of real class then the remainder are running for place money only?
Alternatively, he may not stay the 12f that many think he will, and one or more will run him out of over the last tiring 150yds?
I fall into the latter camp until it is proved otherwise. Yesterday I was firmly against Moth in the Oaks for the same reason. Even the mighty Frankel never attempted to bridge the gap from 8f to 12f as a 3yo? A lot will be made of the winner of the Oaks being by New Approach, but as I pointed out, there was genuine staying pedigree on her dam's side. That is not the case with Dawn Approach..
So to the analysis ..
EPSOM 4.0: 12f Group1 THE DERBY
DAWN APPROACH - Without doubt a top grade horse who has a real high pace that he can maintain long after others cry enough. However, I do think, unlike Frankel to whom he might be compared with, he does not accelerate off that pace. In the 2000gns he had a pacemaker in there to ensure that the early pace was very quick, and kept up to that over the first 5f. It was a pace he could live with, but the others could not. If the field had run their own race the result might have been different, but instead they kept tabs on Dawn Approach, and despite him slowing down over the final 2f, the rest had nothing left to give. It looked impressive, but the overall time was very poor for a Group 1 race, even early in the season.
Dawn Approach will not need a pacemaker in this race because they always go off quickly as they jockey for position on the little right hand turn. Then they climb to the top of the hill, before dropping down to Tattenhan Corner. It is here where I think the race will be won or lost, as I expect DAWN APPROACH to be very handy as they turn into the straight. If he can draw the sting out of the stayers by maintaining this quick tempo and making them make their move too soon, he will very likely last home. But as we saw in the Oaks, a true stayer that can delay its challenge until the front runners start to slow down, will be the one to win going away.
Had it not been for the Godolphin purchase of shares in this horse I do not think Jim Bolger would have considered running him over 12f this term because of the speed he has shown. However, he also has an interest in the stallion prospects so he is not going to air these doubts publicly before the race. O'Brien got it wrong with his miler yesterday, even though there did not appear to be an outstanding rival in the field?
History could repeat itself here.
Current odds 2/1
BATTLE OF MARENGO - He looks to be the main threat from the O'Brien yard, and they look like targeting any stamina doubts with two early pacemakers? I am not sure if he has much of a turn of foot, but he will keep grinding away right to the line. This will be the big test, but barring bad luck in running or failing to handle the course, he will be involved if it is down to a stamina battle.
Current odds 13/2
RULER OF THE WORLD - The second line of attack from the O'Brien stable. I like this horse, but there are some worries. Inexperience to handle the preliminaries? Big horse, will he handle the track? Not least, is he good enough? On the latter point, on my ratings for this season alone, he is only 3lbs behind the favourite, but against lesser opposition. Which means he will not have the comfort of running well within its means before delivering his challenge. He is on the upgrade though, so if he can do a little bit more, worries notwithstanding, he is a serious threat.
Current odds 9/1
OCOVANGO - The first of the unknown quantities. This French horse is following the pattern of Por Moi, the stable's previous winner(who was my selection at the time). He is a different type of horse though. More in the mold of the O'Brien pair, rather than the turn of foot that drew me to Por Moi. There should be no stamina doubts, and the going will not be fast enough to worry him either. The track could be a problem, but he seem okay at non-racing pace the other day. Just how good he is will be answered shortly after 4o'clock, but the trainer has something to compare, so again, likely to be battling away in that final furlong.
Current odds 9/1
CHOPIN - The other unknown quantity. This time a German trained horse. Clearly a top class horse in his homeland, winning both his last race as 2yo over 8f, and his 9f Group 3 'prep' in very impressive style. However, as we often see our Group 2/3 horse take their Group 1 races that level of form has to be eased back a tad. Not to be underestimated though. You only have to think back to Danedream's(edit) win in the King George over Nathaniel, and unlucky not to be able to follow up a second 'Arc win, to know their 'good' horses are very good indeed. If the trainer has any line of form to measure Chopin against that one, he is a danger to all. On first glance at the pedigree it does not scream 12f as an ideal trip. Beneath that though, you have a pretty average dam, out of a top staying family. Add that to speed already shown, if anything is likely to come late and fast it will be this one. J. Spencer is an ideal pilot to deliver, if he is good enough?
Current odds 12/1
MARS - He is the first one with more negatives that positives. Late finishing behind Dawn Run in the 2000gns, is great form, if he were to sticking to a mile. The dam side of his pedigree screams speed, speed speed. 7f rather than 10f could be better, so this 12f is baffling to me. Take yesterday's runner Moth, without the 'up to 10f' dam's pedigree, and you have Mars in a nutshell. Add to that, this race is going to be run to test the favourite's stamina who has already beaten him at 8f. If this horse is in the shake up I will be very, very surprised. But putting my immediate thoughts aside. he has the stamina influence of Galileo, and at some point 10f might be within his compass. Against that his only run as a 2yo was over 7f on the AW, which takes speed, and his Guineas run this season where he may not have handled the dip very well? I know the trainer knows more than I do about this horse, but they got it wrong yesterday ?
Current odds 15/1
LIBERTARIAN - He won the Dante trial at York and looked a worthy winner. The time was not
exceptional, so needs to improve again. Should not have any stamina doubts, but this is a tougher test. I thought Buick only indicatedt she was okay, not special. But if the extra distance suits she is not one you can dismiss completely.
Current odds 17/1
FESTIVE CHEER - Yet another O'Brien runner. Bit of a dark horse compared to the front two in the market. The step up to a Group 2 11f race in France brought about a big improvement, and could well be suited by an extra furlong on that running,, even though the dam side pedigree says not. Whether he will be good enough to take on a true run 12f race at this stage is questionable though?
Current odds 20/1
Now we are into the pace setters;
FLYING THE FLAG - I guess this is the one to take them along at a quick but sensible gallop from the off?
Current odds 150/1
GALILEO ROCK - This one is the stayer, so as they turn into the straight he will take it up just to push Dawn Approach's buttons early on? If he is very good he could break them all??
Current odds 25/1
MIRSAALE - Another front runner, and course winner to boot. Will give his owners a day out in the sun, but has to improve massively to stay out in front at this level.
Current odds 66/1
OCEAN APPLAUSE - Similar comments to the above, without getting to the front. Will need the aid of a suffragette to be involve in anything but a race not to be last.
Summary: No chance. I made that mistake yesterday! I leave it entirely to yourselves to see which odd offers best value. Okay?
Have a good day ...
Friday, 31 May 2013
EPSOM: THE OAKS 2013
I will repeat what I said before last week's Irish 1000 Guineas, in that the fillies have found it difficult to blossom into their full potential because of the bad weather early on in the year. Now we are four weeks on from the Newmarket 1000 Guineas, and all the trials done and dusted, they are starting to find their place in the top rankings. Some have more to prove than others, but it shapes like it will be won by a decent staying filly.
So in usual fashion, I will run through them in betting order(odds current to time of writing), to see who brings what to the table.
EPSOM 4.00: 12f Group 1 THE OAKS
SECRET GESTURE - She won the Lingfield trial in impressive fashion, and recorded the best rating on the day, However, there are some niggles that might temper the thinking that this race was all it appeared? For a start, the ratings of horses in behind only match my race grade, as most did not have an official mark, but the well beaten 4th had a OR of 88. With Group one level being 110+, could mean that this favourite did the job, and nothing more? The big question, as that was a 'trial' race, can she improve enough to do the same against fitter, better class horses here? The second problem at Lingfield was the going. From my figures, it appeared the far side of the track was softer than the final 7f, with the straight being the quickest of all. Difficult to get accurate time figures when the gap is as large as it appeared here.?
If nothing else, the race showed the three most important things; She has 'trained on' from her average 2yo days; the distance is no problem, and the recent rain will not inconvenience her.
Worth her current odds of a shade over 3/1?
MOTH - She holds her high position in the market on the strength of her run in the 1000gns, where she missed the break and finished the next 6f as well as any other. Unlike the above, this race was a stone better race than the Lingfield trial, and has been franked by the 2nd going on to win the Irish 1000gns. Ratings are close with the above, much like her odds. However, the big question will remain until after the race, as to whether the step up to 12f will bring out any improvement. I really doubt that it will. Finishing strongly over 8f when held up in the rear, to me says she should get closer to the pace, and a mile is her trip? The breeding is not that encouraging for going over 10f either. Another thing, it was fast going at Newmarket and it brought out her best performance. Even with a drying wind, the going at Epsom will not be fast, so stamina will be a key a factor. Trained by any lesser stable and she would be a 10/1 shot. Improving, yes. Likely winner, no.
Current odds 4/1
LIBER NAUTICUS - There was a lot to like about her York trial win. The way she knuckled down and stayed on well, after being slightly outpaced when they quickened, suggesting that 12f will be fine for her. She was only on her second start there, so big improvement can be expected. Unfortunately, that is where the good news ends. The quality of that small field was 20lbs below Group 1 standard, but even as a Group 3 it was poor. The time was the slowest (relatively speaking) on the card, and the rating only matched that of the Class 4 handicapper who has an OR of 79! Now much of this can be put down to the small field, and her trainer will know what it takes to win a classic. That said, the build up to this race will be something else for this lightly raced filly, and it is a very big ask to show her true potential this time. Not impossible, but a very hard one to pull off?
Current odds 5/1
BANOFFEE- Jockey Kieren Fallon is very sweet on her(excuse the pun), and from her trial at Chester he is entitled to do so. Like the above, she suffers from it being a weak race from the official ratings. The 4th, Elik, was only rated 79, but went on to win a Listed race at Goodwood, but that race did not bring out exceptional time figures either. What Banoffee did show was an amazing turn of foot at the end of the 11f+ race, and we know what Magician did last week to know that can be devastating, especially with the final 150yds at Epsom being uphill? Still has a few lbs to find on the favourite. Having improved 20lbs from her debut run in April, on good to soft, with the follow up on good to firm, and the trip no problem either, although there may be some stamina doubts in a true run race? She has a good a chance as any if she can be close enough after they turn for home. She is another lightly raced horse that has to get through the preliminaries, but Chester is close to the noisy public too, and that experience may help.
Current odds 9/1
SAY - Her best asset is that she is the only one to win over the full 12f. However, that was in a 4 runner field, and as a 1/6 odds on shot tells you all you need to know about the opposition? It was a god awful time to boot. I am sure A O'Brien can see some merit in running her, but I cannot see her being used as a pacemaker for her stamina doubt laden stable companion? Possibly up front to slow it up for more of a sprint finish? Or maybe, just to stay out the back/press on from the front and see where her stamina takes her? The latter would be running her on HER merits, and if her trainer think she is a top staying filly in the making, who knows, it could be MOTH who is there to set it up for her?? Watch for late betting moves?
Current odds 11/1 ... but possibly go bigger, then shorten up in the last 15 minutes before the off?
TALENT - She is the last of the more obvious potential winners, having won a Listed 10f race at Newmarket on 1000gns day. The time was not great, but saw the trip out well. She looks the type to improve for the step up to 12f, and on breeding too. Unlike the Derby favourite, she has a lot of stamina on the dam side, to balance the speed of her sire New Approach. So despite needing a huge improvement on what she has shown so far, with many doubts surrounding all of the above, she could find herself battling out the finish.
The remainder, whilst not without a chance of running into a place, or even providing a shock winner, they do have to over turn form with some of the above.
MADAME DEFARGE was preferred in the betting to TALENT last time, and had a poor run in the race. However, breeding indicates the step up in trip may improve her conquerer more so.
Current odds 25/1
GERTRUDE VERSED has to reverse placings with BANOFFEE, which looks a tough task on that running.
Current odds 40/1
ROZ she has an even bigger task to turn around 13 lengths with MOTH. However, the plus points are; she was having her first run of the season in a Group 1 race, over 8f, whereas this 12f is more likely to suit, and her 2yo form is probably the best on show. The negative is, her Newmarket run did nothing to say she has trained to the same level. That is of running the winter ante-post favourite for the 1000gns, Certify (currently banned from racing), to a 4.5l second in the top Group 1 2yo contest on her final start. But remembering the preface to this, and how fillies in particular have suffered with the bad weather, this extra month and a bit of sunshine could work wonders for this one. If any horse could run into a place at a huge price, then she could well be the one?
Current price 50/1
MISS YOU TOO has it find with ROZ on 2yo form, and SECRET GESTURE on her last run. That will not happen if both run to their best. But stranger things can happen. The trip and going will be no problem, it is simply the case whether she is good enough?
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: It is a more open race that the odds suggest. 7/1 the field is more like it, given there are many on a similar level of known form. If I were a layer of bets, then MOTH would be the one I would take on.
The danger to all is if the race is run at a solid pace throughout, SAY has the best stamina requirements to finish it off ... only AO'B knows just how good she is??
ROZ represents good value for a little EW punt. She must be showing something to be kept in the race? Not only that, they have booked Johnny Murtagh ..mmmmn
BANOFFEE is the only one of the short price ones to have a decent price. High enough for EW but she is more likely to win or bust?
You choose, I am only putting the information in front of you ...
Have a good day ...
So in usual fashion, I will run through them in betting order(odds current to time of writing), to see who brings what to the table.
EPSOM 4.00: 12f Group 1 THE OAKS
SECRET GESTURE - She won the Lingfield trial in impressive fashion, and recorded the best rating on the day, However, there are some niggles that might temper the thinking that this race was all it appeared? For a start, the ratings of horses in behind only match my race grade, as most did not have an official mark, but the well beaten 4th had a OR of 88. With Group one level being 110+, could mean that this favourite did the job, and nothing more? The big question, as that was a 'trial' race, can she improve enough to do the same against fitter, better class horses here? The second problem at Lingfield was the going. From my figures, it appeared the far side of the track was softer than the final 7f, with the straight being the quickest of all. Difficult to get accurate time figures when the gap is as large as it appeared here.?
If nothing else, the race showed the three most important things; She has 'trained on' from her average 2yo days; the distance is no problem, and the recent rain will not inconvenience her.
Worth her current odds of a shade over 3/1?
MOTH - She holds her high position in the market on the strength of her run in the 1000gns, where she missed the break and finished the next 6f as well as any other. Unlike the above, this race was a stone better race than the Lingfield trial, and has been franked by the 2nd going on to win the Irish 1000gns. Ratings are close with the above, much like her odds. However, the big question will remain until after the race, as to whether the step up to 12f will bring out any improvement. I really doubt that it will. Finishing strongly over 8f when held up in the rear, to me says she should get closer to the pace, and a mile is her trip? The breeding is not that encouraging for going over 10f either. Another thing, it was fast going at Newmarket and it brought out her best performance. Even with a drying wind, the going at Epsom will not be fast, so stamina will be a key a factor. Trained by any lesser stable and she would be a 10/1 shot. Improving, yes. Likely winner, no.
Current odds 4/1
LIBER NAUTICUS - There was a lot to like about her York trial win. The way she knuckled down and stayed on well, after being slightly outpaced when they quickened, suggesting that 12f will be fine for her. She was only on her second start there, so big improvement can be expected. Unfortunately, that is where the good news ends. The quality of that small field was 20lbs below Group 1 standard, but even as a Group 3 it was poor. The time was the slowest (relatively speaking) on the card, and the rating only matched that of the Class 4 handicapper who has an OR of 79! Now much of this can be put down to the small field, and her trainer will know what it takes to win a classic. That said, the build up to this race will be something else for this lightly raced filly, and it is a very big ask to show her true potential this time. Not impossible, but a very hard one to pull off?
Current odds 5/1
BANOFFEE- Jockey Kieren Fallon is very sweet on her(excuse the pun), and from her trial at Chester he is entitled to do so. Like the above, she suffers from it being a weak race from the official ratings. The 4th, Elik, was only rated 79, but went on to win a Listed race at Goodwood, but that race did not bring out exceptional time figures either. What Banoffee did show was an amazing turn of foot at the end of the 11f+ race, and we know what Magician did last week to know that can be devastating, especially with the final 150yds at Epsom being uphill? Still has a few lbs to find on the favourite. Having improved 20lbs from her debut run in April, on good to soft, with the follow up on good to firm, and the trip no problem either, although there may be some stamina doubts in a true run race? She has a good a chance as any if she can be close enough after they turn for home. She is another lightly raced horse that has to get through the preliminaries, but Chester is close to the noisy public too, and that experience may help.
Current odds 9/1
SAY - Her best asset is that she is the only one to win over the full 12f. However, that was in a 4 runner field, and as a 1/6 odds on shot tells you all you need to know about the opposition? It was a god awful time to boot. I am sure A O'Brien can see some merit in running her, but I cannot see her being used as a pacemaker for her stamina doubt laden stable companion? Possibly up front to slow it up for more of a sprint finish? Or maybe, just to stay out the back/press on from the front and see where her stamina takes her? The latter would be running her on HER merits, and if her trainer think she is a top staying filly in the making, who knows, it could be MOTH who is there to set it up for her?? Watch for late betting moves?
Current odds 11/1 ... but possibly go bigger, then shorten up in the last 15 minutes before the off?
TALENT - She is the last of the more obvious potential winners, having won a Listed 10f race at Newmarket on 1000gns day. The time was not great, but saw the trip out well. She looks the type to improve for the step up to 12f, and on breeding too. Unlike the Derby favourite, she has a lot of stamina on the dam side, to balance the speed of her sire New Approach. So despite needing a huge improvement on what she has shown so far, with many doubts surrounding all of the above, she could find herself battling out the finish.
The remainder, whilst not without a chance of running into a place, or even providing a shock winner, they do have to over turn form with some of the above.
MADAME DEFARGE was preferred in the betting to TALENT last time, and had a poor run in the race. However, breeding indicates the step up in trip may improve her conquerer more so.
Current odds 25/1
GERTRUDE VERSED has to reverse placings with BANOFFEE, which looks a tough task on that running.
Current odds 40/1
ROZ she has an even bigger task to turn around 13 lengths with MOTH. However, the plus points are; she was having her first run of the season in a Group 1 race, over 8f, whereas this 12f is more likely to suit, and her 2yo form is probably the best on show. The negative is, her Newmarket run did nothing to say she has trained to the same level. That is of running the winter ante-post favourite for the 1000gns, Certify (currently banned from racing), to a 4.5l second in the top Group 1 2yo contest on her final start. But remembering the preface to this, and how fillies in particular have suffered with the bad weather, this extra month and a bit of sunshine could work wonders for this one. If any horse could run into a place at a huge price, then she could well be the one?
Current price 50/1
MISS YOU TOO has it find with ROZ on 2yo form, and SECRET GESTURE on her last run. That will not happen if both run to their best. But stranger things can happen. The trip and going will be no problem, it is simply the case whether she is good enough?
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: It is a more open race that the odds suggest. 7/1 the field is more like it, given there are many on a similar level of known form. If I were a layer of bets, then MOTH would be the one I would take on.
The danger to all is if the race is run at a solid pace throughout, SAY has the best stamina requirements to finish it off ... only AO'B knows just how good she is??
ROZ represents good value for a little EW punt. She must be showing something to be kept in the race? Not only that, they have booked Johnny Murtagh ..mmmmn
BANOFFEE is the only one of the short price ones to have a decent price. High enough for EW but she is more likely to win or bust?
You choose, I am only putting the information in front of you ...
Have a good day ...
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