Reviews and Prevews

The early season form has got completely messed about partly because of the weather, and partly because the late Easter that has compressed the season. I cannot remember the Irish Guineas being run the week before the Epsom Derby, which is now only two and a half week away from Royal Ascot?

So starting to unravel the 1000gns and Oaks is difficult because it is a minefield.
Irish 1000gns at the Curragh:
They watered the course pretty well, as the going allowance indicating it was nearer good, from the good to firm the day before.
Samitar won, and won it well. Improved her rating, and with better ground could go on to be quite useful.
Ishvana 2nd, and again, improved her rating. She was produced from midfield and appeared to stay on without ever looking like the winner.
Princess Sinead came from the rear. She made up the trio of complete outsiders to fill the places. All sound Group/Listed race types, but were not expected to win on form?
Of the backed horses, Yellow Rosebud was the most disappointing, finishing just ahead of the handicapper, Janey Muddles, last and last but one.
La Collina has a slight excuse in that she kept the pacemaker honest, and faded from 2f out. Perhaps she doesn't truly stay, or she needs to come from the rear rather than race close up.
After, another O'Brien horse, passed the above late on, but again, hardly a startling performance?
Which leaves the conclusion to be made about the hot favourite, Homecoming Queen.
Any suggestion that this is her bubble burst could not be further than the truth. She set a fast pace which enabled the winning time to be easily the fastest time(relatively) of the day. The problem for was always going to be on faster ground, she would have to go faster than she would like because the field could keep up better. I venture to say, had Ryan Moore ridden her, she would have been a lot closer, if not winning. He won it at Newmarket so easily by tactically using her speed at he right times. On fast ground, she needed to keep enough back to repel the fast finishers.
If you want to take a horse from the meeting, keep an eye out for the 2yo winner of the first: LINES OF BATTLE. She produce an excellent time for a 2yo at this stage of the season. O'Brien trains.
The Oaks:
Forget Newmarket's 1000gns as a form guide.

MAYBE is obvious place to start. She needs to show a similar level of form to last season if she is to win this? Some doubts about the trip. In a race where 7/1 the field is a better reflection of the open nature of the race, she is poor value, but not to say she cannot win.
THE FUGUE - She won nicely at York, but not in a great time. If the second is inferior to the above, then it puts the top two in the market close together. She should stay.
VOW - Won the Trial race at Lingfield like a good horse, but that was not on turf. Her big doubt is whether this race is coming too soon, having not raced at two. Epsom, with all the razzamataz that goes with it, so will be a real test for her, as will the contours of the course. Potentially the best horse ... but after this race is just a part of her learning curve.
KISSED - She impressed many with her win at Navan, although those behind have been beaten since. Her big doubt is the going. It will be quick today, and a downhill track on unsuitable ground does seriously raise the question as to whether she will show her true form.
KAILANA - She won well at Newmarket, and in a good time. Stamina no problem, and with the Godolphin horses beginning to shine, she is the first to come into the race with no blemishes ... if she is good enough? That is the question, as placed horse that have run since finished behind THE FUGUE and SHIROCCO STAR respectively. It puts her close on form, so it may come down to who has improved the most in the meantime.
SHIROCCO STAR - She just failed to win her race prep at Newbury on softish ground, and will do better at the trip and faster going. Despite the time of her run being okay, the form was somewhat let down by the 4th failed to win a maiden race at Windsor. The 2nd was also 2nd in the 1000gns and ran to that level ... whatever that level is???
So there you have the front rank. Full of 'if's, buts, and maybe's' ... hence my 7/1 the field. Anyone could win, but which one. Or possibly one of the real outsiders ...
COLIMA - beaten by VOW
BETTERBETTERBETTER - An O'Brien 'sighter' at Chester, got beaten by a horse that was later thrashed by THE FUGUE
COQUET - No chance on ratings ... well, has 15lbs to find to be in with a shout. However, as an EW shot, not a forlorn hope. She has done nothing but improve. Her Goodwood race was not run in a way that she could impress, but she seems to do just enough. The course should not be a problem. The extra 2.5f is a real plus, along with the going. Apparently she shows little at home, but to me, in a year where there are much of a muchness, I think she has the the ideal profile to spring a surprise ... or is that just my antepost voucher speaking?
DEVOTION was beaten by Yellow Rosebud, who flopped in the Irish 1000gns.
The remainder have mostly been beaten by one or another above, except TOPTEMPO who failed to win a maiden race at this trip last time.

Conclusion ... ???
Best value of the 'likelies' - KAILANA @ 10/1
Best each way - COQUET @ 27/1

CURRAGH - Irish 1000 Guineas

Today's big race looks all set up for a repeat performance  of the Newmarket 1000gns? So ask yourself, why is the favouritie not odds-on?

3.40 CURRAGH :

HOMECOMING QUEEN - A dramatic win last time, and given she has beaten most of this field before, what is to stop her wrapping up this one as well. A quick look at her form line shows that she has done nothing but improve sine last August. It also so shows, strangely, as it is Ireland we are talking about, that she had not raced on soft ground until August! And there hangs the doubt.
I said in my preview blog of the Oaks that it would be harder to repeat her win on faster ground. The reason for that, even if she handles fast ground equally well, horses behind who may be didn't like the soft, will find it easier to keep tabs on her. The problem punters are faced with today is whether she has just improved despite the underfoot conditions, or is her early 2yo runs on good to firm indicating she is not as quick relative to the others?
YELLOW ROSEBUD - Most definitely a serious threat after beating the one horse that blemished the above's run last season, Coral Waves. Perhaps that also preferred soft ground, but it was soft at Leopardstown. On breeding you would think this filly would be better on fast ground? She will also improve for that run. Trip no problem. However, she was beaten over 7f here last season, by Maybe, who was 3rd to Homecoming Queen at Newmarket.
LA COLLINA - My selection at Newmarket where she finished a staying-on 5th. Reverse of the favourite's profile, as she had not run on soft ground before, so I think her run shows much more promise for this one?
She will improve for the run. Will like the fast ground. Her win against the colts last season shows she it tough and classy.

Conclusion:
I will be amazed if the winner does not come from the first three in the betting. Yesterday I stuck with my previous selection in the follow up Classic for the colts, and I am not deserting LA COLLINA now.
Tactics will play a big part, and I am hoping that one of the outsiders, like Princess Sinead will keep the field closer to the leader, so the hold up types can go with her when she tries to kick on. If HOMECOMING QUEEN can act on the ground equally well then she will win. The other two most certainly can, and will both be nearer their peak having had a run. Which is why I think it will be a one-two of non-O'Brien horses battling it out.

It is not that I am anti-O'Brien, but that stable do tend to provide favourites in races, so where there is a doubt it means others are better value.
Earlier at the Curragh we have another odds-on O'Brien favourite in SO YOU THINK. Now here is a horse with few chinks. His style of running is relentless rather than flashy. If the early pace over 3f is good, he will pick it up from there, not necessarily leading, but just making sure the others do not have a breather and produce a turn of foot to beat him ... in the way that the ill-fated Rewilding did at Ascot. Or indeed, as Cirrus Des Aigles did at the same course later last season, Is there such a horse in this field? Mmmm?

May be not as good as CIRRUS DES AIGLES, who, until Frankel proves otherwise, it the best 10f around(and will add to that view at Longchamp today?). However, on that same Champions Day card at Ascot, Dancing Rain put up a great time in the 12f race, and got top figures to match. BIBLE BELT was 2nd, and if there is a horse that could upset the favourite, then she must be the one.
Things in her favour. She is now a 4yo and so should improve. So You Think is a 6yo and is unlikely to be better than last season. he has 10lbs to find on my figures, and she gets 3lbs sex allowance. Therefore, 7lbs to be gained from maturing into a 4yo? Not impossible. Also, the favourite disappointed at Meydan in March, and many horses struggle to come back from there on their first run back.
Against, Bible belt has not had a run. But at 1/4, I think So You Think has it all to do?

Have a good day.
p.s. I'm not sure if the ground was a problem for Hermival, but 10f will give him more time to bring his stamina into play. He did get a slight bump as he moved out, but it only cost him a length or so. Power shows just how a muddling race that Guineas was, Shame Parish Hall couldn't take part.