To be honest, there is not a lot to say about this race, because all bar one has a below grade level rating.
JUST THE JUDGE is the exception, but only just. The Newmarket 1000gns is a strange race to work out. The overall time was not exceptional, yet it was the second fastest, relatively, on the card. Yet the winner did not improve on her rating?
I think the cold spring has has a big effect on last season's 2yo's. Some have shown some early potential but not really at Group 1 level. So, like yesterday with the colts we are left to guess just how much the various stables know what further is to come? Most need to improve 10lbs to 20lbs to be considered real top class.
That said, Just The Judge will handle the faster ground, which may be a big doubt with many on runs last season's very wet surfaces? She also stays a mile well, but like yesterday, at 4/1 it is taking a lot on trust that she has improved beyond what the others have.
The following all have the same thing in common, in that they have shown something to work on, either this season or last, but still have to improve up to a stone just to get to the favourite's level?
BIG BREAK - Last season, no prep.
MAUREEN - Behind the favourite, on second run, which matched her earlier win.
SNOW QUEEN - Improved to finished 5th in the 1000gns, just ahead of the above.
VIZTORIA - Won the Group 3 trial, beating BUNAIRGEAD, who ties in with the above's first run.
JUST PRETENDING - Did nothing special in winning her Group 3 trial, but the stable know more??
WHAT STYLE just ahead of SNOW QUEEN on her reappearance. Similar chance, bigger odds?
HANKY PANKY - She won at Naas over 8f, but those behind were only h'cappers.
HARASIYA - I am interested in this horse for one reason. I recall she won a Group 3 last year in a good time, on a day when some of the top older horse were running. If you can do that wit a relatively quick time for distance, it usually means it was special. The only thing is she did not follow it up. She was due to have a prep, but missed it. So there is something of a doubt as to how ready she will be, but on best form with improvement for age, she is a lively outsider at 17/1 in a place
She is as far down the betting order I need to go. Not that the others cannot win, but mostly have over tun form will all the above.
It is the favourites to lose on known form, but the unknown is the danger?
Have a good day ...
Sunday, 26 May 2013
Saturday, 25 May 2013
IRISH 2000 GUINEAS 2013
Well at first glance there is no disguising that this is a B-divison Classic race. However, as with all 3yo's at this time of year, there are open to improvement.
Here, in betting order, is how I rate them:
Curragh 3.20; 8f 2000gns Group 1
MAGICIAN - Nothing spectacular as a 2yo. Won an average maiden that might give him a chance in a Class 3 handicap this season. Instead turns up in a Classic trial at Chester and wins with an impressive piece of acceleration, so has clearly improved. Just as well, as it only moves him up into Class 2 h'cap range?
Clearly, has to continue to show improvement just to overtake the worst of this field. Odds; 3/1
VAN DER NEER - Without doubt, this has a clear chance on his 3rd in the Newmarket 2000gns. It was much stronger race and had George Vancouver further behind. However, time wise, this race was not that good. The fast early pace meant the final 2 furlongs were so slow(16f race sectional time in fact) which confuses the picture for the race as a whole. Why were the horses not close to the pacemaker not able to finish better? Even Dawn Approach, the winner, did not quicken, but was just able to go faster than the rest? There were a few exceptions, Mars, who goes for the Derby, apparently was one of the quickest over the final 6f, and was staying on at the end. It is possible that the pack behind the pacemaker just went too quick too early? It is pure speculation on my part, but if they had set a more sensible early pace, and left Dawn Approach to chase his pacemaker, a good number of the field might have swallowed both of them up?
That is as maybe, but it still leaves VDN on a vulnerable mark to anything with real class, unless he too can put that right under a more even gallop? Odds; 9/2
TRADING LEATHER - He ran in the 10f Derby trial at York and seemed to do it quite good for a first run. One wonders why they drop him back to 8f, but it is a Classic, and although ruling him out of the Epsom Derby, it might decide what Royal Ascot target to go for, as he may be a horse caught between two distances? His rating from that is only a couple of lbs behind the above(and 10lbs ahead of the fav!), but his best 2yo rating would put him clear of both. Odds; 8/1
FORT KNOX - He will get a lot of attention as he is jockey/trainer Johnny Murtagh's first Classic runner. Not without a chance if he improves on his first run this season, which is on a par with the above. He beat Don't Bother Me then, who later on ran behind Van Der Neer. So he is there or thereabouts. Odds; 8/1
HAVANA GOLD - He would have preferred the rain to have come earlier, which is pushing its way across Ireland as I write. Currently the going is good to firm, and if that remains the case, it lowers this ones chances. He followed up a second in a trial race where pace was opposite to the 2000gns, slow early fast final 3f, so ends up with a similar modest rating to the above. However, his follow up race was in the French 2000gns, and finished close up in a bunch finish just behind Gale Force Ten who was 4th, only 0.5 length off the winner. No rating for that, but assume it was an improved performance, but on heavy going. Odds: 8/1
GALE FORCE TEN - He is interesting because he has a rating from last season that matches Trading Leather, but over 6f, and has come on from a 7f prep on the AW to an 8f 4th in the French Classic. Alas the latter cannot be a guarantee that he will stay a true run 8f race? Deserves his chance though. Odds 10/1
GEORGE VANCOUVER - He could have been a serious challenger to Dawn Run on his best form, but my guess is, that without a prep race, and a good break after winning in America, the very fast early pace there would not have played into his hands. Now with that run behind him, and still on favoured fast ground, he only has to prove he is as good as last year to win ... but that is still an open question. Odds; 13/1
FIRST CORNERSTONE - He is in a similar position to the above, in that he has to prove he can improve on a good 2yo level. Tough ask first time out? Odds; 26/1
FLYING THE FLAG and ASK DAD are both probably in to ensure a sound pace? Neither has a rating to suggest they are anywhere near good enough to win.
Summary: The favourite is at far to short odds for what it has achieved on track. But only the stable know much more is ready to be tapped. For the rest, it is a very open race. Full of 'IF'S'. It only needs one to sparkle and it could be a rout, if the others don't.
Have a good day ...
Here, in betting order, is how I rate them:
Curragh 3.20; 8f 2000gns Group 1
MAGICIAN - Nothing spectacular as a 2yo. Won an average maiden that might give him a chance in a Class 3 handicap this season. Instead turns up in a Classic trial at Chester and wins with an impressive piece of acceleration, so has clearly improved. Just as well, as it only moves him up into Class 2 h'cap range?
Clearly, has to continue to show improvement just to overtake the worst of this field. Odds; 3/1
VAN DER NEER - Without doubt, this has a clear chance on his 3rd in the Newmarket 2000gns. It was much stronger race and had George Vancouver further behind. However, time wise, this race was not that good. The fast early pace meant the final 2 furlongs were so slow(16f race sectional time in fact) which confuses the picture for the race as a whole. Why were the horses not close to the pacemaker not able to finish better? Even Dawn Approach, the winner, did not quicken, but was just able to go faster than the rest? There were a few exceptions, Mars, who goes for the Derby, apparently was one of the quickest over the final 6f, and was staying on at the end. It is possible that the pack behind the pacemaker just went too quick too early? It is pure speculation on my part, but if they had set a more sensible early pace, and left Dawn Approach to chase his pacemaker, a good number of the field might have swallowed both of them up?
That is as maybe, but it still leaves VDN on a vulnerable mark to anything with real class, unless he too can put that right under a more even gallop? Odds; 9/2
TRADING LEATHER - He ran in the 10f Derby trial at York and seemed to do it quite good for a first run. One wonders why they drop him back to 8f, but it is a Classic, and although ruling him out of the Epsom Derby, it might decide what Royal Ascot target to go for, as he may be a horse caught between two distances? His rating from that is only a couple of lbs behind the above(and 10lbs ahead of the fav!), but his best 2yo rating would put him clear of both. Odds; 8/1
FORT KNOX - He will get a lot of attention as he is jockey/trainer Johnny Murtagh's first Classic runner. Not without a chance if he improves on his first run this season, which is on a par with the above. He beat Don't Bother Me then, who later on ran behind Van Der Neer. So he is there or thereabouts. Odds; 8/1
HAVANA GOLD - He would have preferred the rain to have come earlier, which is pushing its way across Ireland as I write. Currently the going is good to firm, and if that remains the case, it lowers this ones chances. He followed up a second in a trial race where pace was opposite to the 2000gns, slow early fast final 3f, so ends up with a similar modest rating to the above. However, his follow up race was in the French 2000gns, and finished close up in a bunch finish just behind Gale Force Ten who was 4th, only 0.5 length off the winner. No rating for that, but assume it was an improved performance, but on heavy going. Odds: 8/1
GALE FORCE TEN - He is interesting because he has a rating from last season that matches Trading Leather, but over 6f, and has come on from a 7f prep on the AW to an 8f 4th in the French Classic. Alas the latter cannot be a guarantee that he will stay a true run 8f race? Deserves his chance though. Odds 10/1
GEORGE VANCOUVER - He could have been a serious challenger to Dawn Run on his best form, but my guess is, that without a prep race, and a good break after winning in America, the very fast early pace there would not have played into his hands. Now with that run behind him, and still on favoured fast ground, he only has to prove he is as good as last year to win ... but that is still an open question. Odds; 13/1
FIRST CORNERSTONE - He is in a similar position to the above, in that he has to prove he can improve on a good 2yo level. Tough ask first time out? Odds; 26/1
FLYING THE FLAG and ASK DAD are both probably in to ensure a sound pace? Neither has a rating to suggest they are anywhere near good enough to win.
Summary: The favourite is at far to short odds for what it has achieved on track. But only the stable know much more is ready to be tapped. For the rest, it is a very open race. Full of 'IF'S'. It only needs one to sparkle and it could be a rout, if the others don't.
Have a good day ...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)