Newbury 3.50 - LOCKINGE STAKES 2013

This could be a very short blog.

Newbury 3.50: 8f Group 1 Lockinge Stakes

Summary: FARHH

Oh, you want more? Well on Official ratings it should be at least a 3 horse race, with two rated 124, and one 118. However, there is a simple approach here to separate the top two ... Who would have got closest to last year's winner FRANKEL?

FARHH finished 6 lengths down on his best effort.

CITYSCAPE ran Frankel's distant shadow, EXCELEBRATION, to 3 lengths, when the great one went for the 10f race, leaving his 'shadow' to win the 8f Champion division. So add a minimum of 7 lengths for how far FRANKEL(I just love typing that name!) would have been further ahead ... remembering, when he did press all the buttons and recorded his highest ever rating of 143, he was 11 lengths to the good, so that puts Cityscape needing to find 4 lengths.

BEAUTY PARLOUR this ex-French trained horse is now trained by Henry Cecil(sorry, not one for giving titles to people), and the stable are in fine form. However, it does have a lot to find on his last two starts, and on his previous winning form. The Irish top fillies UP and AFTER are good yardsticks to measure her by in the French 1000gns. Both are less than 112, and now she is up against colts?

The horses with at least 10lbs to find(on horses 12 and 20lbs inferior to the G.O.A.T. ..( love that too!):

ALJAMAAHEER

DECLARATION OF WAR

SOVEREIGN DEBT

Behind those you have;

FENCING

PENITENT

TRUMPET MAJOR

So, I refer you back to the summary ...

There are plenty of handicaps about, and some with very dodgy favourites(at the time of writing).

Take this for example:

Newbury 2.40: 6f Class 2 handicap.

MODEL TUTOR - Now he could be anything, but a class 5 maiden on the AW at Lingfield does not inspire me, no matter 'how well the race has worked out'. Current price 11/2

KHAWATIM - Another from the AW, but failed miserably on all 3 attempts on turf at the beginning of his career. He has improved since, but again, a class 3 AW handicap hardly justifies his odds. Current price 8/1

PRODIGALITY - This does have good turf form, but not in class 2 events. He is top rated here, so in theory the horses below him should be inferior to him, which is why he is giving weight away. But are they? Current price 10/1

Personally, I would lay the above and back the following ... if I had a bigger bank balance!
(in betting order);

POOLE HARBOUR ran his best race last time, and even though he lost, he improved his rating because he came up against an real improver in a hot class 2 event. Always promised to win a big race, this could be his day? Current price 11/1

KHUBALA has had a couple of runs over 7f  this season, but his best run in 2012 was in a top class 2 h'cap at Ascot when he finished second to Gabriel's Lad, with Signor Sassi behind. He is weighted to confirm that form. Signor Sassi was the horse that Model Tutor beat at Lingfield, but no way can you take that form so literally. It was SS's only run on the AW, it came early in the season, where he went on to improve. The Ascot run was his final start. Khubala now has the fitness edge too. Current price 17/1.

JOE PACKET does represent real class in this race. He only finished 5th in a Group 3 on his last start, but improved his rating because the winner was MINCE, the top 3yo sprinter of 2012 and that race was the second fastest of the day. Yet he receives 3lbs from the Class 3 winner PRODIGALITY? Admittedly, he did not win a race last season, in fact his last win was a class3 on his final start the season before, but he had been going against the very top sprinters that year. He was harshly handicapped after a 3rd place in a Listed race at Newbury, and did not follow on. This can happen with horses, but his final start did show that he still has ability. Current price 20/1

I should just mention TOP COP too. Not much chance on ratings, but he is one of these horses that runs into a place at big odds. Stable are in great form though..Current price 12/1

That's it, be aware of false favourites in these handicaps?

Have a good day ...

ASCOT VICTORIA CUP

Moving on from the Classics, we now try a tricky handicap.

ASCOT 3.50: 7f Class 2 Victoria Cup h'cap
in (current) betting order;

CAPE CLASSIC is now current favourite and does have a very good chance on ratings. However, as with most of the 'fancied' horses, he is drawn high. The downside is that most of the pace horses are drawn low, which is thought to be the favoured side. Contrasting that, at the time of writing they are confirming it is still good to firm, where the high numbers have a slight edge. Confused? Well I shall amend this when I see course report after this morning's inspection to see what affect the overnight rain has had.
Cape Classic is one of a few that has show high level form on fast ground, and has had a run, on soft, so is likely to turn the form around with others in that race.

LIGHTNING CLOUD is one that prefers softer, so his opening run on faster going only shows his well being. Was very good two seasons ago, and has a chance if it has softened up at all.

HAAF A SIXPENCE ran an excellent race at Newbury, but has yet to show top form on fast going. Certainly on ratings has a good chance.

BERTIEWHITTLE is yet another drawn high, and is a hold up horse. All four named need something to take them into the race? Whilst he has a very good record over Ascot 7f, and I can see him coming on strong at the finish, I don't see him winning it. He does not win first time out, although runs well, and he is very high in the weights. Off this mark he will have to be better than ever?

JAMESIE is another I do not rate good enough to win, although as an Irish raider you can never be that sure? On form, a second on the AW at Dundalk, and better form on soft, it is a big ask.

TARTIFLETTE won the race with several rivals here behind him. No doubt he is a high class horse who rarely runs a bad race. He is also drawn low. Against him is the potential for it remaining fast going. He is high enough in the weights to make me think he will need to improve on his last run, but not without hope.

DREAM TUNE is the last of the group at the top of betting order and deserve a mention. Also drawn low, and will be up with the pace on the far side and may just get first run over there. 3rd behind Haaf A Sixpence which is solid form, and although tried at distances either side of 7f, this is his best trip. Good chance if that is the side to be on?

Going Update: No change - remains Good to Firm, no bias.
Arnold Lane, Bertiewhittle, and Bronze Prince likely to be up the front end high side. Glen Moss down the middle, and Fast Finian and others on the far side, it may even itself out?

Of others who deserve a mention:
ARNOLD LANE is top weight for a reason, and is in great form.
Excellent Guest and Smarty Socks both do well at Ascot, but may need a run or two to get to this level?

No conclusions, I leave it to yourselves to take the information provided, and see if it confirms your own view?

Have a good day ...