1000 GUINEAS 2013

This time it is the fillies turn to strut their stuff. I would love to analyse every runner, but time is pressing, so in betting order, we will see what the top order have in strengths and weaknesses.

NEWMARKET 3.50 8f Group 1 3yo Fillies - 1000gns:

HOT SNAP: She created a major upset when winner the trial race at Newmarket. Visually impressive against rivals that would not e fully wound up for that race. But that could have been said about herself, having only run once in the previous season. What does make it a fascinating though is her speed figure, which was the clear fastest, relative to the others, on the day. But here is the first warning from recent history. Heerat, the sprinter, ran an incredible time compared to the rest on his reappearance, and like Hot Snap, came into the race on a fairly average mark for what he had done. He could not repeat that in the higher class field yesterday, admittedly on faster ground. The point is, at this time of year all horses are still building to their peak, and so the relative fast time has to reflect that.

In Hot Snaps favour, she is not stepping into a very hot race like Heerat did, where the first three home were multiple Group1 winners. But even so, she will not have time to find her feet out the back this time, and it is that which might take away her final turn of foot that she showed last time. Inexperinence in the build up might also take its toll on her nerves. Without doubt she if a top filly, but this race may just be beyond her right now?

WHAT A NAME: This is the French challenger, and potentially the most likely winner. Although failing to win her Group 1 race last year, it was still a good effort as she was the only filly in the race, and the winner is a strong fancy for the French 2000gns. Only narrowly won on her reappearance, in a Group 3, but is expected to improve, and her trainer thinks the faster ground will suit. This is the one they will have to pass to win.

JUST THE JUDGE: Not raced this season, but signed off with a Group 2 success. That was the relatively slowest run race of the day, and consequently she did not match the grade rating. Despite that she comes into this with a strong chance if fully wound up. the stable think a lot of her, but this is a tough ask on this quicker ground.

MOTH: Not a lot to go on with her. Won in impressive style in a maiden, and that is it. Very few horses can make such a leap into the top grade and be successful, no matter what stable they are in? If she is exceptional, she might nick a place.

SKY LANTERN: She is a Group 1 winner, so the pace of this race will be no shock to her I am amazed how quickly people dismiss her chance after her prep race behind Hot Snap. Not fully wound up yet she marginally improved on her rating, which at least shows she has trained on. She has won on fast ground, and the best each way in the field, because if she does not beat the French horse, she will run her very close.

MAUREEN: She is the last one in with any chance on all known form. meaning the rest are going to have to improve beyond all recognition to get involved. She won her prep in pleasing style, against other hopefuls, and there is no reason to suppose that they will improve passed her to turn the tables. She does still have a bit to find on the above, but her battling manner of racing will give her supporters plenty of hope. Yet to race on the faster ground though.

Frankly I do not see the winner coming from outside of those mentioned above, and even 3rd place will be contested strongly.

Reflections on yesterday;

Dawn Approach will improve, although Epsom is not an ideal course for her, but he is a class act

Olympic Glory deserves an enormous amount of credit for his run. Racing alone for much of the race, yet kept on to take second from the fading better fancied runners.

Toranado did as I expected, and that was not finishing off in a strong run race. I cannot see him turning the tables in the Derby either. Much was made beforehand as to how he would be the one to strike for home first, as the pacemakers dropped away. But Dawn Approach went at the same time and simply outstayed him. It was the early pace that did it, and he will not always have that in future races. Not to be written off, but better than Canford Cliffs?

Garswood was very slow out of the stalls, and had to make a big effort to join the trailing group early on. In the end did well to keep going, but may have to lower his sight just a tad?

Van De Neer did indeed prove himself, and will be a strong contender for future mile races.

I have yet to do the ratings, but I suspect that the overall time will not be that quick, and the sectionals to show the final furlong was the slowest?

2000 Guineas 2013

Yes, the first of the Classics. Unfortunately it could be quite predictable, because if DAWN APPROACH is as good as most people think he is, then they may as well hand the prize over at the start of racing?

Luckily for us, things are rarely that predictable, so let us consider who brings what to the table.

Newmarket 3.50: 8f Group 1 3yo colts - 2000 Guineas

in betting order;

DAWN APPROACH; Finished 2012 as the top rated 2yo. Began racing at the beginning of March and then to be taken seriously after winning at Royal Ascot. Indeed, got a very healthy rating, and still continued to stay unbeaten through his next 2 races.
Now he could be a really great horse like his sire, but where I have a problem with his form is that his first 3 races, times were invariably very slow against those that ran on the same day. His Ascot race is a standout. The one that followed was again very slowly run, on pretty soft ground. yet somehow he improved his rating? His last run at Newmarket on softish going, and on my figures, did not run up to his inflated rating of 121. Indeed, if he ran against my Ascot figure his current mark would only be 116. Very healthy, but not a figure I would take a short price about?
In short, the doubt I have about this horse is based on the pattern that comes from his races:
Two weeks before Ascot, having his third run of the season, he failed to beat the rating for the grade of the race, and got a rating of 82.
Royal Ascot, with 4 runs under his belt, runs a blinder and gets a rating of 118. Top class.
Not surprisingly, he was laid off for 3 months. Then runs another race and he is below his top mark, beating Designs On Rome, rated 91, and his likely pacemaker today, Leitir Mor who was only rated 105. That is barely listed class?
Then the final run just 6 weeks later, again beating Leitir Mor now raised to 111, and George Vancouver rated 110.
Let's not forget, he did win all of these races, and that makes him a very good 2yo. He has grown well through the winter, by all accounts, and the trainer has some very good horses to measure him by. However, the weakness may lay in the lack of a prep run? I suspect because of the ground in the early part of the year he simply wasn't ready in time to get a run into him. Now they are relying on his class to see him through this?
For a horse that appears to need races to bring him along, that is a big ask, particularly on today's fast going. Not that he does not handle fast ground, but it means the likely race is going to be fast from the off. That may play to his stamina strengths, but it is a very tall order against horses who can finish fast?
That is the case against. Now for the opposition;

TORANADO: He won the Craven Stakes in good style, but like his previous wins, that was a small field, and broken down, against an unfit main rival, and an inferior stable companion ridden to get a place, and the other who was not that good? So for him to repeat that in this race when it is unlikely they will go that slow from the off, is a mighty task. The overall time of the Craven was okay, but only the third quickest, relatively, on the day, and was an excellent pipe-opener. But if he needs that type of race to run his best; steady, steady, quicker, quick? Well it is not going to happen here. Even horses below this level are likely to push on from the start, not to mention pacemakers? Although both of those may want to dictate a slower than normal pace? The danger there is it allows those with suspect stamina to get into the race, and they are likely to have better finishing speed?
Again, a top class horse, but also one with questions to answer?

CRISTOFORO  COLOMBO: On bare form he has a bit to find on the favourite. Beaten a length at Ascot into 3rd, but more damning, next  time is being beaten by Probably over 6f, whom had been well beaten by Dawn Approach prior to Ascot. In his final race, on the same Newmarket card as Dawn Approach's last run, he came up against the quirky but exceedingly good Reckless Abandon, who did run the relative fastest time of the day. He only finished 4th, but 2 lengths ahead was Moohaajim, so over these extra two furlongs he has that to make up too. But not surprising he is the jockey's choice? Having only raced over 6f last season, it is assumed his sire will give him the necessary stamina, and probable improvement. Not without a chance.

MARS: Time will tell how good he is, but a winner on the AW at Dundalk is not sufficient to judge.

GARSWOOD: Impressive with his win in the 7f Free Handicap. Traveled well enough to think he might get the trip here. The big question mark is will the rise in class be just beyond him? One for the shortlist, but enough doubt not to be too confident about?

GEORGE VANCOUVER: Possibly the most interesting runner given the fast going. Has a lot to find on the favourite, and Leitir Mor on several runnings, but all on softer going than today. Stepped up to a mile on fast ground and he showed what he is really about. Won the Breeders Cup Juvenile event in America on his final start, and blitzed a top class field in a very quick time. If he is in that form without a prep run, the rest can kick their reputations into the dust. He is the O'Brien stable 'dark horse', and he does know how to get horses right for the big day?

VAN DER NEER: Difficult to know what to make of this one. Lost out to the ante-post Derby favourite, Kingsbairns, in the 8f Racing post trophy. Had a prep but did not handle the Lingfield AW track, so did well to win, and is stablemate to Toranado. The 8f trip seems to suit, despite the sire's tendency for speed, and on the evidence of his last two runs he could be a lively outsider, and another who might appreciate today's going?

MOOJAAHIM: The debate over his stamina will be resolved today. I would like to think it was a combination of going and fitness that brought about his defeat against Olympic Glory in his prep at Newbury. He was staying on behind Reckless Abandon over 7f last season, and that race clocked my best rating for all 2yo's last season. Fast ground will suit, and he travels well. Whether the rising ground out of the dip will prove too much is the big question.

KYLLACHY RISE: Best, and only run last season was at Goodwood over 7f, on better ground than his prep in a Class 4 run at Newbury. That would have been way below what is required here, and may need further to show his best anyway.

LEITIR MOR: I have a lot of time for this horse. He has run the most races of all these, and yet rarely fails to show his form. In truth he is probably just below this grade anyway, and is more than likely here for the benefit of Dawn Approach. Has had a 6f prep with an eye to pace setting no doubt, and should set the race up nicely, even if the Hannon camp may not like it?

DON'T BOTHER ME: If there is to be a big shock then this is he one to do it. He had a good prep at Leopardstown over this trip, but as the winner did not make the stable cut, it is hard to see this one being quite up to it either. Nice day out for a smaller stable, and will probably be ridden for a place. Did not do well on his only start on fast going though.

CORRESPONDENT: Another without any real hope on form. His prep was against Toranado, and even in a faster run race, and him being fitter, a place looks hopeless task?

GLORY AWAITS: The complete outsider, and I suspect they haven't got his best trip worked out yet? Outpaced over 9f in his prep, admittedly against a promising newcomer, but has mainly been working away at lower grades. It is hard to see this race being the key to opening the door to a brighter future. Back to 7f handicaps may be his best route?

And there you have it. Make up your own minds, but in my opinion, it is not a two horse race as many believe it is?

Have a good  day ...