Now I am really getting racked off with the Weather, and its forecasters.
I swear when I checked the RP site just before publishing yesterday, their course reporter was saying 'blues skies and sunny' ?
Clearly he was not at the course, because , according to C4 TV, they said it began raining at 7.0am, and was still doing so at 2.0pm!
At least today it will not make much difference.
Goodwood 3.05: 8f Group 1 SUSSEX Stakes.
Now if there were 8 runners there could have been a couple of interesting each ways. With only 7 runners, unlikely.
LEITIR MOR would have been one such bet, as this course should enable him to stay out in front a lot longer and may be just hang on to 3rd place at the death? His job is to set it up for the favourite by setting a steady but very quick pace. The O'Brien team have REPLY in there to try and upset that plan, but despite the latter being a very useful horse in his own right, in a straight dual between the two, on this course I would take LEITIR MOR every time.
TRADE STORM is the other one I think will be raced for a place, and 3rd again, the most likely target. He will just sit out the back, hopefully relaxed, doing nothing except not getting too far adrift, and then come with a late run to pick up the pieces from those that go with the pace and have nothing left.
DECLARATION OF WAR is the O'Brien hopeful, and it will depend on how much he has to put in too early in the straight will decide whether he is 2nd or 4th. He has the best part of 10lbs to find on the favourite, but as he has a light campaign until this season, he could still be improving. Alas, his run in the Eclipse has probably damaged his chance here, as well as showing that he improved nought for the step up to 10f.?
TORANADO ran a great race last time and missed out on being the first horse to beat the favourite, after arguably being the biggest sufferer in the barging match they both got caught up in. At least in that race he did show he can be raced differently, and is a worthy 2nd favourite. Delaying his challenge to the very last moment could be the way to go here? Hughes is confident enough to do that, even if he is 4 lengths down at the furlong pole. Whether he can win or not, is another question?
DAWN APPROACH is well clear on ratings. He has a small field where his pacemaker can dictate things, and the ease in the going is not a problem either. Given his preparation going into the last race, he should be more than ready to repel all comers this time. The only possible chink is the course. He is a horse that can go a fast pace for a long way (not 12f though?), and this course does enable the speedier types to get into the race as they start to descend. I guess Leitir Mor will be trying to soften them up on the climb to the top of the hill and keep it going for as long as he can downhill.
Fascinating race to see how it unfolds, butt the winner should be: DAWN APPROACH.
I say 'should be',because he is the best horse in the race. But if Declaration Of War takes him on coming down the hill, it could just open it up for a shock winner, like Trade Storm to get the better of Toranado?
I am still of the opinion that two of the three main challengers will fade, and Leitir Mor will hang on for 3rd.
Have a good day ...
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
Tuesday, 30 July 2013
GOODWOOD - Tuesday 2013
Well, having been put away by the weather forecast on King George day at Ascot, I am not making that mistake today. In fact, at the last week end I was put away twice, given I was quoting the trainer who said Cirrus Des Aigles was back to his best, only to hear her backtracking on live tv to say he was 'nearly' back to his best. That, and the miraculously dry day they had up to race time, when the previous evening the weather map clearly showed that by 8.0am the heavy rain had already spread up to the M4, you could say I was less than hopeful. The only thing I can say is the winner was something special, but I shall look forward to the rematch with Trading Leather should they both go for the Juddmonte over 10f. A fully fit Cirrus over 10f, and with the rain having broken through at last, I think we may see a different story?
However, with just the possibility of a thunderstorm, I will not start of Glorious Goodwood with too much enthusiasm until I get the latest going forecast. If it is sunny and warm, then the course will dry out and recent fast ground form should hold up quite well. However, Goodwood's undulations do mean it is not an exact science on who will perform well on the track?
Goodwood 1.55: 10f Class 2 Handicap;
FAST OR FREE is yet to run this season. Probably because of the prevailing fast ground. At the time of writing, it does not look like he will get is favoured conditions, so I am quite happy to pass him over at relatively short odds for an open handicap.
Current odds around 6/1
BLUE SURF has got a squeak on my ratings which he got on the downhill Epsom track. Not enough in hand to say he is a good thing, but should be bang there at the finish.
Current odds around 7/1
WHISPERING WARRIOR is in good form, but another who may have preferred it softer. It is also stepping into better company here, and with his h'cap mark increasing, he will have to show some improvement to win this.
Current odds around 9/1
CLON BRULEE is another I would give a chance to if he can get a good position from his middle draw. The course configuration means the not only have right hand turns to make, but also they switch rails along the way. With the fast downhill as they turn into the straight you need a lot of luck in running. However he has won at Ripon and Redcar, both tracks known for their undulations, and his last run was a decent effort too. The going is less of a concern as well.
Current odds around 9/1
NABUCCO has been lightly raced coming into this race, so there may be some hidden improvement. He won over the trip on the July course at Newmarket, which also has a downhill section. Certainly not one to be ruled out.
Of the remainder;
FENNELL BAY, although high in the h'cap, his stable are in flying form. he has a difficult draw to overcome, and may lose his race trying to get to the front and do his customary lead?
Current odds around 12/1
ANGEL GABRIAL is capable of running a big race if things go his way.
Current odds around 18/1
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However, with just the possibility of a thunderstorm, I will not start of Glorious Goodwood with too much enthusiasm until I get the latest going forecast. If it is sunny and warm, then the course will dry out and recent fast ground form should hold up quite well. However, Goodwood's undulations do mean it is not an exact science on who will perform well on the track?
Goodwood 1.55: 10f Class 2 Handicap;
FAST OR FREE is yet to run this season. Probably because of the prevailing fast ground. At the time of writing, it does not look like he will get is favoured conditions, so I am quite happy to pass him over at relatively short odds for an open handicap.
Current odds around 6/1
BLUE SURF has got a squeak on my ratings which he got on the downhill Epsom track. Not enough in hand to say he is a good thing, but should be bang there at the finish.
Current odds around 7/1
WHISPERING WARRIOR is in good form, but another who may have preferred it softer. It is also stepping into better company here, and with his h'cap mark increasing, he will have to show some improvement to win this.
Current odds around 9/1
CLON BRULEE is another I would give a chance to if he can get a good position from his middle draw. The course configuration means the not only have right hand turns to make, but also they switch rails along the way. With the fast downhill as they turn into the straight you need a lot of luck in running. However he has won at Ripon and Redcar, both tracks known for their undulations, and his last run was a decent effort too. The going is less of a concern as well.
Current odds around 9/1
NABUCCO has been lightly raced coming into this race, so there may be some hidden improvement. He won over the trip on the July course at Newmarket, which also has a downhill section. Certainly not one to be ruled out.
the 9/1 mark, but may well get shorter because of stable form.
Of the remainder;
FENNELL BAY, although high in the h'cap, his stable are in flying form. he has a difficult draw to overcome, and may lose his race trying to get to the front and do his customary lead?
Current odds around 12/1
ANGEL GABRIAL is capable of running a big race if things go his way.
Current odds around 18/1
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Goodwood 2.30: 5f Group 3 Molecomb Stakes 2yo
AMBIANCE has marginally the best rating, and is of an interesting price.
Current price 6/1
SLEEPER KING did not perform up to the level expected at Ascot, this track, with the emphasis on speed may suit him better.
Current odds 12/1
REROUTE was only having her second start behind Rizeena, so improvement may come to turn the tables on Ambience.
Current odds 9/2
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Goodwood 3.05: 7f Group 3 Lennox Stakes
ALJAMAAHEER is a deserved favourite as he consistently bangs out a similar high rating in victory or defeat. It is hard to get away from the 3yo's in this race too, and his rating is better than any other has produced to date. May be vulnerable if something really gets their act together though?
PROFESSOR looks the 2nd string for the Hannon yard, but I think he is progressing nicely.
Current odds 10/1
Of the older horses, only Caspar Netscher who is classy, but hasn't had a run this season, and Pastoral Player, who likes this course, but is getting older, look to have any chance of stopping it being a 123 for the younger brigade? They include the 2000gns 7th, Garswood, who is not even close to being favourite here, over what might be his best trip?
Time against me here, so have a good day ... ..
p.s Course report a fine sunny daySaturday, 20 July 2013
IRISH OAKS July 20 2013
I am staying with this Classic race, not because it is a top notch race, or that it is easy to find the winner. No, it is simply a Group 1 race, the last of the major Classic races, and it deserves some scrutiny.
Curr 6.15: 12f Group 1 Irish Oaks
It has to be said that there are negatives about every runner. To complicate matters further, Aiden O'Brien has three of the 8 runners, and there is a French challenger that is hard to assess.
So, in betting order;
TALENT was an impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks, and came through the field like a proper staying filly. The downside is, that was the second slowest time on the card. She came into the race with a modest OR of 96 and because of the time, did not improve on it in my book. It was also on good to soft going. Everything about today's race is going to make it a tougher challenge?
That said, she is the only Group 1 winner in the race and has the highest OR in the race, albeit a low one for a Classic winner. She has had plenty of time to recover from that race, and as long as she has not got any fitness issues she should run her race. Unfortunately, those that ran behind her that have had a run, have done nothing to advertise the form, suggesting, as the time does, it was a poor race. So the doubt remains?
Current price around 5/2
RIPOSTE is a Group 2 winner at Ascot's big meeting and ran to a rating a stone above the current favourite. In the process beat one of her rivals today. That was on fast ground and a similar course type to the Curragh. It was a big step up from being beaten in a Class 5 maiden previously, and has had a decent time to recover. Will very likely take over as favourite before the off?
However, the horse she beat looks to be the O'Brien first choice on jockey bookings? She was ridden as though she might not get the trip. She was stepping up from the 8f Irish 1000gns, and as a consequence, she pulled very hard. So it is not a formality that Riposte will confirm that form?
Current price around 5/2 - 11/4
ALIVE ALIVE OH also beat one of the O'Brien runners over 10f at Naas in a Listed race. Never raced on fast ground, or been tried over 12f, although bred to appreciate the trip. She won by 6 lengths, but her time rating suggests she has to improve quite a bit more to take a hand. The form of that race has been upheld, so not a forlorn hope.
Current price 6/1
CHICQUINTA is the French challenger who finished 2nd to a very impressive winner of the 10.5f French Derby, which naturally is a Group 1 race. Trained by the very astute Mons Royer-Dupre, who can spot a good opportunity, and has the equally astute J. Murtagh on board.
This filly has not raced on fast ground before, but did improve for the 'good' last time. Bred for the job, and if she is not troubled by the travelling could be the one they all have to beat. Well backed to do so.
Current price around 6/1, and likely to get shorter.
VENUS DE MILO is the one I find the most interesting of the three O'Brien runners. She has had only two runs to date, and won both. The latest was over 10f on fast ground where the short priced favourite was unplaced. The time does her rating no favours, but is bred to improve for the step up in trip. She has certainly finished off her races in that manner, and the form of that was helped when the 3rd went on to win next time.
She could be an O'Brien dark horse, and should not be dismissed lightly.
Current price around 15/2
JUST PRETENDING is surprisingly big price for a horse who might just turn the form around with the second favourite RIPOSTE. If she relaxes and can run her race she will have every chance. She appeared to stay that day, although her rival might also improve again. Joseph O'B takes the ride again, and with a likely pacemaker in the race, it should be run at a true speed to allow her to come through late on?
Current price around 12/1
SCINTILLULA is the likely early pace-setter, if she follows what she did last time in a Listed race over 8f.
However, trainer J Bolger may have other ideas now she is stepping up in trip, so it might be in this one's favour to have a falsely run race?
Current price 20/1
MAGICAL DREAM may be the one to take it on if the above does not, thus ensuring a true run race for the other two stable runners.
Current price around 33/1
Conclusion: I could be wrong again for the 3rd blog in a row if I dismiss TALENT out of hand. However, her win looks suspect on many levels, and take away much of what the visual impression created. She has to improve a lot to beat these in a true run race, and on balance, I think it may be just beyond her?
I find it hard to get away from the French runner who beat a strong Group 1 field, bar the impressive winner, who is likely as not head for the 'Arc at Longchamp. I cannot see anything of that class in this field?
1 - CHICQUITA
2 - RIPOSTE
3 - JUST PRETENDING
2 - RIPOSTE
3 - JUST PRETENDING
Have a good day ...
Saturday, 13 July 2013
Newmarket JULY CUP 2013
For once I have little problem with reading this race.
Newm 3.50: 6f Group 1 July Cup
Starting with the winner;
SHEA SHEA - Forget all the stuff about this horse being better at 5f. It may be true, but he is also very very good at 6f. This is a stiff 6f. True, but his style of running is not to blast off and do it from the front is it? No he comes late and fast. Yes, there are several others that do the same, but none have got the rating I gave this horse on his last run. Therefore, it is all about the pace of the race?
Two predominantly lead horses, and Shea is drawn between the two, in stall 8. On his right, in 4, is LEADING LIGHT. In stall 12 is HAMZA. The former has the better rating, and in Group1 company, and is probably the best to tuck in behind. Because they come down the centre of the track, there should be few problems in finding room unless they all converge towards the stand's side? Top class jockey who knows how to ride a waiting race just adds to my belief in the final outcome. He should be a 7/4 shot.
Current odds 4/1?
Of the challengers, SOLE POWER is only 3 stalls away in 11, next to the other pace horse Hamza. Now the danger here is if they do split into two distinct group and Shea's jockey decides to stay close to his narrow Ascot conquerer, they both could be left with a longer run for home, as I expect Hamza to fade first? Shea has on his left, towards the far rail ZANETTO to tuck in behind initially, but then he will be exposed, and three horses away from the pace horse.
Whereas, on his right, HAVELOCK, a fellow Aussie, will try and drop in. Next is GALE FORCE TEN who may not be able to force the early pace but will want to be on hand to use his extra stamina in the final furlong. so not a bad one to tuck behind. Beyond those two, KRYPTON FACTOR is in an ideal spot to get the lead from Leading Light. Likewise SHAMEXPRESS, who ran no sort of race at Ascot, but could find this more to his liking? He is the most likely to take it up from Leading Light, which will, in turn, suit SOCIETY ROCK and SLADE POWER, although the latter doe not appear quite up to this level on my figures.
So there you have it. Easier to go and join Sole Power, but the race could be over on the stand's side, and if connections read this the same way as I do, they will leave Sole Power on his own to make a late burst too late to catch the stand side group, or he has to go too early, and loses out like he did at Haydock. Not only that, Sole Power is not as good over 6f, whereas Society Rock is.
Result: First No6 - SHEA SHEA.
Second No3 - KRYPTON FACTOR
Third No5 - SHAMEXPRESS
Conclusion: Yes that looks like a shut out for home based horses, but they all have some issues.
Shea Shea good value 4/1, Krypton Factor value EW at 14/1 -16/1, Shamexpress less so at 20/1 as he still has a bit to prove?
Disappointing day yesterday, but three races produce excellent times.
In the first INDIGNANT won well and set a good time.
RIZEENA appeared not to like the going, yet despite this was only a couple of lbs off her Ascot rating, and stayed the 6f well enough. .The winner though, LUCKY KRISTALE is the real deal. Clocking the second fastest time on the day and posting the best 2yo rating this season. One to follow.
SKY LANTERN was robbed. If a jockey can use the excuse that having the whip in his correct hand is the best way to keep a horse straight .. when for over it furlong it patently was not working!!!! Then it sets a very bad precedent for future races.
HEAVEN'S GUEST clocked the best time of the day, and all horses involved should be watched in future races.
Have a good day ...
Newm 3.50: 6f Group 1 July Cup
Starting with the winner;
SHEA SHEA - Forget all the stuff about this horse being better at 5f. It may be true, but he is also very very good at 6f. This is a stiff 6f. True, but his style of running is not to blast off and do it from the front is it? No he comes late and fast. Yes, there are several others that do the same, but none have got the rating I gave this horse on his last run. Therefore, it is all about the pace of the race?
Two predominantly lead horses, and Shea is drawn between the two, in stall 8. On his right, in 4, is LEADING LIGHT. In stall 12 is HAMZA. The former has the better rating, and in Group1 company, and is probably the best to tuck in behind. Because they come down the centre of the track, there should be few problems in finding room unless they all converge towards the stand's side? Top class jockey who knows how to ride a waiting race just adds to my belief in the final outcome. He should be a 7/4 shot.
Current odds 4/1?
Of the challengers, SOLE POWER is only 3 stalls away in 11, next to the other pace horse Hamza. Now the danger here is if they do split into two distinct group and Shea's jockey decides to stay close to his narrow Ascot conquerer, they both could be left with a longer run for home, as I expect Hamza to fade first? Shea has on his left, towards the far rail ZANETTO to tuck in behind initially, but then he will be exposed, and three horses away from the pace horse.
Whereas, on his right, HAVELOCK, a fellow Aussie, will try and drop in. Next is GALE FORCE TEN who may not be able to force the early pace but will want to be on hand to use his extra stamina in the final furlong. so not a bad one to tuck behind. Beyond those two, KRYPTON FACTOR is in an ideal spot to get the lead from Leading Light. Likewise SHAMEXPRESS, who ran no sort of race at Ascot, but could find this more to his liking? He is the most likely to take it up from Leading Light, which will, in turn, suit SOCIETY ROCK and SLADE POWER, although the latter doe not appear quite up to this level on my figures.
So there you have it. Easier to go and join Sole Power, but the race could be over on the stand's side, and if connections read this the same way as I do, they will leave Sole Power on his own to make a late burst too late to catch the stand side group, or he has to go too early, and loses out like he did at Haydock. Not only that, Sole Power is not as good over 6f, whereas Society Rock is.
Result: First No6 - SHEA SHEA.
Second No3 - KRYPTON FACTOR
Third No5 - SHAMEXPRESS
Conclusion: Yes that looks like a shut out for home based horses, but they all have some issues.
Shea Shea good value 4/1, Krypton Factor value EW at 14/1 -16/1, Shamexpress less so at 20/1 as he still has a bit to prove?
Disappointing day yesterday, but three races produce excellent times.
In the first INDIGNANT won well and set a good time.
RIZEENA appeared not to like the going, yet despite this was only a couple of lbs off her Ascot rating, and stayed the 6f well enough. .The winner though, LUCKY KRISTALE is the real deal. Clocking the second fastest time on the day and posting the best 2yo rating this season. One to follow.
SKY LANTERN was robbed. If a jockey can use the excuse that having the whip in his correct hand is the best way to keep a horse straight .. when for over it furlong it patently was not working!!!! Then it sets a very bad precedent for future races.
HEAVEN'S GUEST clocked the best time of the day, and all horses involved should be watched in future races.
Have a good day ...
Friday, 12 July 2013
Newmatket July Festival - Thurs & Fri
This is more a reflection on Thursday's card, and a look at today's first four races.
Starting with Thursday's review:
The opening race over a 13f trip was one up for my ratings, as my top two finished 1st and 2nd. Alas the top rated was the unlucky Havana Beat. I always think that once you have got past Royal Ascot the ratings from this season start to take over. Now, with a 3 week gap, we are also seeing how the ratings from that meeting show their true class. Both of these hoses finished in races where the winner produced a good rating.
I was amused at the comments after the second race that they thought that at least Jallota upheld the standard of War Command's race, because Sir John Hawkins didn't. Well much as I like the Channel 4 presenters, on this occasion they have got it wrong. Sir J H went into the race top rated but with no confidence on my part because the Ascot race was relatively slowly run, and consequently failed to match the grade. He was however, the only runner to have run in that high level. The trouble for me in a slowly run race you do not know for sure what the bottom level is. Whereas Jallota had a better rating behind Astaire, and at 16/1 represented good value at 16/1. I did say that Berkshire's Ascot race was a real blot for trusting it to work out because of the slow time, and Master Carpenter could only finish 8th. I had no rating for the winner, but all three of the placed horse ran above their previous level, if not quite matching the grade here.
Universal ran a grand race, but again was just short of improving his mark with me, but not doubt will be raised. As he does not run in h'caps this is of little consequence.
Maputo was the star of the day. taking a longstanding course record and leaving the other in his wake. This race will produce winners from those who managed to keep going at the end of a stern test.
The 2yo race matched the grade, but it remains to be seen when she is stepped up in class that she can improve on this. But it is a sound base.
Montiridge was understandably slow in a small field, but Last Sovereign gained a couple of lbs.
Todays Friday card is more of the same.
Newm 1.40 is a tight h'cap, but I just give the edge to JUBILANTE, although the top weight SORELLA BELLA may be the value each way?
Newm 2.10 gives us a chance to see RIZEENA strut her stuff. However, at just over evens she is not good value for a bet. She ran over 5f last time, whereas this is not only 6f, but the final furlong is particularly hard.
I still expect her to win with the proviso, if she settles? But it would be nice to see her finish with her ears pricked again, and showing she truly does stay the 6f. The only dangers on ratings are those that finished behind her at Ascot.
Newm 2.40 similar comments apply, but for different reasons. If SKY LANTERN settles, even if she is out in front, she wins. Simple as that really. GIOFRA is the one that would most benefit from a 2f sprint, where ELUSIVE KATE would prefer a proper test. What PURR ALONG does may decide it?
Newm 3.15 is the last one of this review, as the others have little value in analysing. This is also a tight h'cap, but the narrow EW value goes to RIVELLINO. Rated just ahead of the likely favourite, MOVIESTA. Mind if Samantha Bell can do justice to her full claim, MARY'S DAUGHTER is not out of it, at an even bigger price?
Have a good day ...
Starting with Thursday's review:
The opening race over a 13f trip was one up for my ratings, as my top two finished 1st and 2nd. Alas the top rated was the unlucky Havana Beat. I always think that once you have got past Royal Ascot the ratings from this season start to take over. Now, with a 3 week gap, we are also seeing how the ratings from that meeting show their true class. Both of these hoses finished in races where the winner produced a good rating.
I was amused at the comments after the second race that they thought that at least Jallota upheld the standard of War Command's race, because Sir John Hawkins didn't. Well much as I like the Channel 4 presenters, on this occasion they have got it wrong. Sir J H went into the race top rated but with no confidence on my part because the Ascot race was relatively slowly run, and consequently failed to match the grade. He was however, the only runner to have run in that high level. The trouble for me in a slowly run race you do not know for sure what the bottom level is. Whereas Jallota had a better rating behind Astaire, and at 16/1 represented good value at 16/1. I did say that Berkshire's Ascot race was a real blot for trusting it to work out because of the slow time, and Master Carpenter could only finish 8th. I had no rating for the winner, but all three of the placed horse ran above their previous level, if not quite matching the grade here.
Universal ran a grand race, but again was just short of improving his mark with me, but not doubt will be raised. As he does not run in h'caps this is of little consequence.
Maputo was the star of the day. taking a longstanding course record and leaving the other in his wake. This race will produce winners from those who managed to keep going at the end of a stern test.
The 2yo race matched the grade, but it remains to be seen when she is stepped up in class that she can improve on this. But it is a sound base.
Montiridge was understandably slow in a small field, but Last Sovereign gained a couple of lbs.
Todays Friday card is more of the same.
Newm 1.40 is a tight h'cap, but I just give the edge to JUBILANTE, although the top weight SORELLA BELLA may be the value each way?
Newm 2.10 gives us a chance to see RIZEENA strut her stuff. However, at just over evens she is not good value for a bet. She ran over 5f last time, whereas this is not only 6f, but the final furlong is particularly hard.
I still expect her to win with the proviso, if she settles? But it would be nice to see her finish with her ears pricked again, and showing she truly does stay the 6f. The only dangers on ratings are those that finished behind her at Ascot.
Newm 2.40 similar comments apply, but for different reasons. If SKY LANTERN settles, even if she is out in front, she wins. Simple as that really. GIOFRA is the one that would most benefit from a 2f sprint, where ELUSIVE KATE would prefer a proper test. What PURR ALONG does may decide it?
Newm 3.15 is the last one of this review, as the others have little value in analysing. This is also a tight h'cap, but the narrow EW value goes to RIVELLINO. Rated just ahead of the likely favourite, MOVIESTA. Mind if Samantha Bell can do justice to her full claim, MARY'S DAUGHTER is not out of it, at an even bigger price?
Have a good day ...
Saturday, 6 July 2013
THE ECLIPSE STAKES 6th June 2013
This year's ECLIPSE is one for the purists. It is tight on ratings, meaning all can be given a chance. If all take part, then the 3yo generation's chances will be tested against that of their elders, albeit with only one runner. Above all, it is over 10f. Away from the top level, this would be a 'specialist's distance'. Not so much with the top grade, as their class can see them through even if they rate higher at 8f or 12f.
So, on to the numbers. Victor, get ready to trim those odds?
Sandown 3.50: 10f Group 1 Eclipse Stakes.
in current betting order ...
AL KAZEEM is a much improved horse this season, and deserved to be considered to be the most likely winner on recent form. All three wins have been at this distance, and the latest at Royal Ascot confirmed he is a real Group 1 performer. His trainer though, has put a doubt in peoples's mind as to whether he can pull out another big run, this being his 4th since the end of April, over C&D, and more importantly, the least gap between each one, to this one. There is no doubt that winning at Royal Ascot takes some doing because they have to be at their best to beat others trained to be at their best. However, as he beat over half of this field in his last race, they are in much the same boat?
One excuse for the poor performance of Ruler Of The World last weekend was that he had 3 quick races, and I think it could be the case here. With the ratings being so tight, only 4lbs separating 6 of the 7 rivals is hardly worth mentioning that he is 2lbs off my top rated, given that improving horses will gain more than that in no time at all. It remains to be seen if this is to be an improved run, or one step backwards?
Current odds a shade over 2/1
DECLARATION OF WAR was an impressive winner at Royal Ascot over 8f. It was won in the style of a horse that would be going to a much higher level this season. He also has had 3 races since mid April, neatly separated at monthly intervals .. until now? This is less than 3 weeks for his biggest test of all, so similar concerns to that of the above. The step up in trip should not be a problem, and his mile speed could help should this become too tactical. Again, on ratings, he comes out a couple of lbs below the above from that Ascot race, and the race itself was just a little weaker. However, both these horses will be suited by the longer up hill finish, if they are in a position to do produce a late burst of pace. The faster ground though, may not be in his favour. The first day card at Ascot was described only as 'good', and tends to be less harsh anyway.
Current odds 4/1
THE FUGUE was behind the favourite last time, on her first start since November. Clearly did not get the run of that race, trapped on the inside until it was too late. She is my joint top rated on bare ratings, and gets the same 3lbs gender allowance she had there. Basically it comes down to whether the Sandown hill and a relatively quick 2nd race(the 'bounce' factor) even themselves out and give her a very realistic chance of tuning the tables here.
Well last season she started with 3 quick races, at 10 and 16 day intervals, and improved each time. Indeed, the 4th run was on 20 days later and managed to be second on softer ground. Her best form appears to be over 12f on fast ground. That said, her last win was over Goodwood's extended 9f, which probably adds to the frustration of the last run with things in her favour and got no proper run. She has an excellent chance of making amends here, and I will be surprised if her stamina in the final furlong does not get put to good use? Every chance of going off shorter than her price at the moment.
Current odds 4/1
MARS will find a good race one day, I am not sure this is it. The only 3yo in the field, and also comes on the back of a troubled passage in his last race. Despite that, his 3rd behind Dawn Approach does give him joint top rated, and the 7lb age allowance would put him clear. However, as that rating came against horses of his own age, the rating could be seen as less value than that of a all age Group 1? Therefore this allowance is going to be needed just to keep on even terms. He too is having a run of 4 quick races, including today, all since his 2000gns run on May 4th. Followed that by the 12f Derby where the muddling pace and barging matches along the way, which did not help his cause. I opposed him that day because his pedigree indicated a lot more speed. The drop back to 8f last time has indeed brought out his best rating to date, despite being hampered again. That was a very quick turnaround for a top 3yo to handle. If any horse is to be troubled by too many races it is surely this one? Not to mention the senior opposition, the step back up to 10f, and the stiff uphill climb all adds up to a very big ask for a young horse? He will need all his sire's toughness here.
Current odds 9/2
MUKHADRAM is a horse you have to admire in the way he runs his races. Only just caught by the current favourite last time. This was clearly his best run to date, as his first at Group 1 level. He has come a long way since his 5th in the 9f Cambridgeshire h'cap last season. He is on only his 3rd run, and he is after one of the top Group 1 prizes of the season. Despite Hanagan's brilliance at racing from the front, and a course that has had some superb 10f front runners, like TACITUS in years past, I feel the combination of strong opposition needing a good pace and a stiff finish, will prove just too much.
Current odds 8/1
PASTORIUS is the German raider that has a few if's about his chances, but is the only one of the runners not to have raced at Royal Ascot. On his final run last season he finished 4th to the one and only FRANKEL. That rating, despite being well beaten, and who was wasn't*, puts him in here joint top rated. If you look at races that have involved runners that had been placed behind the GOAT, they have invariably increased his standing by beating everything else in is absence. However, two issues might restrict this being another one. Fast ground? Unsuccessful trip to Singapore last time? I cannot think the going would have been slow out there, but the wide draw on a tight track did him no favours. His run against Frankel was also on soft-ish ground. However, he showed a good turn of foot on his first run over the extended 10f at Longchamp in April, and has been given time to recover from his trip to the Far East. Peslier excels in these type of races and I think he will be in the shake up. just a pity there are not 8 runners?
Current odds 10/1
MBLISH is really only hopeful of a place on known form, and there is nothing to suggest he can turn around places with those he has already raced against.
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: Take THE FUGUE and PASTORIUS against the field, but with everything in his favour THE FUGUE probably has the edge.
The answer to the question above* - CIRRUS DES AIGLES is the only horse push the mature FRANKEL in any race, and is the best antepost bet, with a run, in the King George at Ascot.
Have a good day ...
So, on to the numbers. Victor, get ready to trim those odds?
Sandown 3.50: 10f Group 1 Eclipse Stakes.
in current betting order ...
AL KAZEEM is a much improved horse this season, and deserved to be considered to be the most likely winner on recent form. All three wins have been at this distance, and the latest at Royal Ascot confirmed he is a real Group 1 performer. His trainer though, has put a doubt in peoples's mind as to whether he can pull out another big run, this being his 4th since the end of April, over C&D, and more importantly, the least gap between each one, to this one. There is no doubt that winning at Royal Ascot takes some doing because they have to be at their best to beat others trained to be at their best. However, as he beat over half of this field in his last race, they are in much the same boat?
One excuse for the poor performance of Ruler Of The World last weekend was that he had 3 quick races, and I think it could be the case here. With the ratings being so tight, only 4lbs separating 6 of the 7 rivals is hardly worth mentioning that he is 2lbs off my top rated, given that improving horses will gain more than that in no time at all. It remains to be seen if this is to be an improved run, or one step backwards?
Current odds a shade over 2/1
DECLARATION OF WAR was an impressive winner at Royal Ascot over 8f. It was won in the style of a horse that would be going to a much higher level this season. He also has had 3 races since mid April, neatly separated at monthly intervals .. until now? This is less than 3 weeks for his biggest test of all, so similar concerns to that of the above. The step up in trip should not be a problem, and his mile speed could help should this become too tactical. Again, on ratings, he comes out a couple of lbs below the above from that Ascot race, and the race itself was just a little weaker. However, both these horses will be suited by the longer up hill finish, if they are in a position to do produce a late burst of pace. The faster ground though, may not be in his favour. The first day card at Ascot was described only as 'good', and tends to be less harsh anyway.
Current odds 4/1
THE FUGUE was behind the favourite last time, on her first start since November. Clearly did not get the run of that race, trapped on the inside until it was too late. She is my joint top rated on bare ratings, and gets the same 3lbs gender allowance she had there. Basically it comes down to whether the Sandown hill and a relatively quick 2nd race(the 'bounce' factor) even themselves out and give her a very realistic chance of tuning the tables here.
Well last season she started with 3 quick races, at 10 and 16 day intervals, and improved each time. Indeed, the 4th run was on 20 days later and managed to be second on softer ground. Her best form appears to be over 12f on fast ground. That said, her last win was over Goodwood's extended 9f, which probably adds to the frustration of the last run with things in her favour and got no proper run. She has an excellent chance of making amends here, and I will be surprised if her stamina in the final furlong does not get put to good use? Every chance of going off shorter than her price at the moment.
Current odds 4/1
MARS will find a good race one day, I am not sure this is it. The only 3yo in the field, and also comes on the back of a troubled passage in his last race. Despite that, his 3rd behind Dawn Approach does give him joint top rated, and the 7lb age allowance would put him clear. However, as that rating came against horses of his own age, the rating could be seen as less value than that of a all age Group 1? Therefore this allowance is going to be needed just to keep on even terms. He too is having a run of 4 quick races, including today, all since his 2000gns run on May 4th. Followed that by the 12f Derby where the muddling pace and barging matches along the way, which did not help his cause. I opposed him that day because his pedigree indicated a lot more speed. The drop back to 8f last time has indeed brought out his best rating to date, despite being hampered again. That was a very quick turnaround for a top 3yo to handle. If any horse is to be troubled by too many races it is surely this one? Not to mention the senior opposition, the step back up to 10f, and the stiff uphill climb all adds up to a very big ask for a young horse? He will need all his sire's toughness here.
Current odds 9/2
MUKHADRAM is a horse you have to admire in the way he runs his races. Only just caught by the current favourite last time. This was clearly his best run to date, as his first at Group 1 level. He has come a long way since his 5th in the 9f Cambridgeshire h'cap last season. He is on only his 3rd run, and he is after one of the top Group 1 prizes of the season. Despite Hanagan's brilliance at racing from the front, and a course that has had some superb 10f front runners, like TACITUS in years past, I feel the combination of strong opposition needing a good pace and a stiff finish, will prove just too much.
Current odds 8/1
PASTORIUS is the German raider that has a few if's about his chances, but is the only one of the runners not to have raced at Royal Ascot. On his final run last season he finished 4th to the one and only FRANKEL. That rating, despite being well beaten, and who was wasn't*, puts him in here joint top rated. If you look at races that have involved runners that had been placed behind the GOAT, they have invariably increased his standing by beating everything else in is absence. However, two issues might restrict this being another one. Fast ground? Unsuccessful trip to Singapore last time? I cannot think the going would have been slow out there, but the wide draw on a tight track did him no favours. His run against Frankel was also on soft-ish ground. However, he showed a good turn of foot on his first run over the extended 10f at Longchamp in April, and has been given time to recover from his trip to the Far East. Peslier excels in these type of races and I think he will be in the shake up. just a pity there are not 8 runners?
Current odds 10/1
MBLISH is really only hopeful of a place on known form, and there is nothing to suggest he can turn around places with those he has already raced against.
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: Take THE FUGUE and PASTORIUS against the field, but with everything in his favour THE FUGUE probably has the edge.
The answer to the question above* - CIRRUS DES AIGLES is the only horse push the mature FRANKEL in any race, and is the best antepost bet, with a run, in the King George at Ascot.
Have a good day ...
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