So much racing going on today, but I will just take a closer look at just three.
The first is the Newbury Spring Cup, run over the straight mile. This does take away the wide drawn factor on the round course, but with so many runners the will tend to split into two, may be three groups at some point. So again pace into the race will be important. There has been no going changes at the time of writing, so the soft side of good, and perhaps good on the home straight with no further showers. That is the background, here are the clues;
Newbury 1.55: 8f Class 2 H'cap; in betting order...
EDUCATE won close home at Doncaster, but has gone up 5lbs, and my rating got swallowed up by that.
GLOBAL VILLAGE is a consistent sort, but as such he is never well h'capped. Will run his race.
BORDER LEGEND I cannot see the attraction with this horse. Placed in Class 4 races?
BRAE HILL ran a good race last time and is always a danger in these h'caps.
CAPTAIN BERTIE - ditto from above
GUEST OF HONOUR has no appeal for me, as it has no recent turf form to speak of?
That is the top order of the better as I write, so to outsider's with a chance;
NORSE BLUES has been backed. has a good chance on ratings, goes well fresh. Going no problem. Drawn near a rail, which he should grab as he is a front runner. Only question is it the 'right side'?
HAAF A SIXPENCE has run this season behind Educate, and showed he is effective on turf. Good chance.
JUSTONEFORTHEROAD wasn't well h'capped behind LEVITATE, and both are worse off here. They are fit, and the Fahey stable are in great form re the former. Up against it though?
CHAPTER SEVEN was further behind the above two, but ran a sound race and on best form has a great chance. He is drawn low so will have Norse Blues to take him into the race.
On the high drawn side:
ES QUE LOVE is a great battler, but 8f on the polytrack does not mean he can see out this trip at this level. But if he has untapped stamina he is one to have on your side.
DANCE AND DANCE does not need to step up too much on best form, but has not been that consistent in the past. Has a good mark and should be better for the run.
CRIUS is a class horse to be a big price. Like the above, on best form has a real chance. As with all three of last mentioned, they will have LEVITATE to take them into the race
It will be just my luck if the middle of the track has the quicker ground, but from the shape of it, it looks more like one wing or the other?
Newbury 2.55: 7f Class 1 Group 3 fillies stakes.
ROSDHU QUEEN one of my favourite 2yo's from last season. Interesting that J Murtagh has the booking, with a view to keep the ride in the 1000gns perhaps? Like all these trials, they are not at their peak yet, but she has never let supporters thus far and I don't think she will disappoint today. Stamina is the big question mark as she was very speedy last season. That said, if they are seriously thinking the Guineas mile is within her compass, then this is well within her grasp.
THE GOLD CHEONGSAM is probably the main danger on last season's form, but others may have improved over the winter?
Newbury 3.30: 7f Class 1 Group 3 stakes colts.
Smaller field for this race and that means it could turn out to be falsely run?
OLYMPIC GLORY despite his legion of fans, and the stable bang in form, I think he will struggle here.
MOOHAAJIM ran the quirky but very talented Reckless Abandon to a neck. That race produced my highest rated 2yo race, which puts him well clear in this race. Only lack of fitness will prevent this horse from looking like the main danger to Dawn Approach in the 2000gns?
The Newmarket trials are both confusing. Visually superb HOT SNAP will find it tougher in the real race, despite running a sound time.
The running of the disappointing DUNDONNELL was understandable from quotes after the race. I doubt he was much more than 80% fit with an interrupted preparation. The winner, TORANADO, did not produce an outstanding time that is deserving of all the hype. It must have been quite steady early on, and got faster towards the finish. I cannot see him doing that when they go faster from the off. Another clever ride from an inferior stablemate and one needing the run. Yes he will improve, but he has to because that race did not even reach his best 2yo level. If today's winner produces a half decent run today, I would take him over TORANADO every time.
I think Dundonnell may have to wait for the Irish 2000gns to gain his revenge, unless that race brings him on at least a stone?
Have a good day ...
Saturday, 20 April 2013
Wednesday, 17 April 2013
Newmarket 18th April
I will treat today's Craven Stakes with due caution, but also great interest. My horse to follow for this season is DUNDONNELL,so to see his return to action is an absolute joy for me. Especially as his trainer, (edit)Roger Cahrlton has been quite bullish about his progress from two to three years of age. That is the positive side of the upcoming race
However, the caution comes because conditions for today's race are not ideal.
The going has been on he easy side of good but the going stick has moved slightly in the right direction, from 7.8 to 7.9 since yesterday. Ideally at Newmarket I would have liked it to have been around 8.5, as a drying day would push it close to Good to Firm by 4.05 this afternoon. My going allowance from yesterday mirrors this at 0.48sec per furlong, which is certainly on the easy side of good.
(edit) Since writing the going has changed to Good to Firm, and the going stick reads 8.5?
The next thing which is not ideal is the fact there are only 4 runners, including TORANADO, who beat him in similar circumstances last season. Add to that there is a useful stable companion there to confuse things further. HAVANA GOLD could be the one that is trained up to the moment to win this, or at least ensure the race is set up for its stable mate. But if it is being aimed at one of the other Guineas races, in Ireland France,or Germany. then it too will not want to lose its edge with a hard race here. All three need a decent race pace to bring them to full fitness for the big one in two and a half weeks time. Finally there is the Godolphin trained runner TAWHID who was nicely progressive last season, winning the Horris Hill stakes at Newbury on his final start. Given that there are only 4lbs separating the four on official figures, you might think it would be a close run thing with another dozen horses around them run at a proper racing pace? I challenge the official figures, but even so, a decisive winner here will certainly earn the 2nd favourite position it will undoubtedly be promoted to in the main race?
Tactics will play a major part, but as I said above, a 2 furlong sprint will not do much in sorting out who will come out best in the real thing, or boost their fitness levels. When Toranado won last time his jockey was pleased that his tactics worked. I am happy that they were sufficiently worried that they had to think about Dundonnell enough to apply the dance routine(slow, slow,etc) tactics in order to secure that win. I get the feeling the Hannon camp are still worried, lining up the excuse of the 3lbs weight concession, and surprisingly, the trip being too short for Toranado this season, should he get beaten today? There was no disguising that they thought he was superior to Havana Gold though. So reading between the lines, my guess is that it will be Havana Gold to lead out and try and set the race up for Toranado as they approach the final furlong. Where Tawhid fits into that is anybody's guess at this time of year, as was seen yesterday, see below.
In the Nell Gywn stakes, which is the fillies 1000 Guineas trial you had a horse officially rated 78, which in terms of class is an average for a Class 4 handicapper, and yet has improved over the winter to pop up and be a stunning winner three grades higher, and in the relatively fastest time of the day! HOT SNAP has been promoted to the new favourite of the 1000 Guineas, and trained by Frankel's trainer Henry Cecil, you can understand why? However, I would urge caution about taking short odds about her, as indeed I would about today's winner. How many horses in that field were fit and ready to make the overall pace the same as it will be on May 5th? Then, every runner will be out to win it, so to produce the same turn of foot again, as she showed yesterday will be that much harder, and the buzz factor on the big day is asking a lot for a horse only having her third start?
The second fastest race came in the 'Free Handicap' half an hour earlier. It is only 'Listed' event, so a grade down from these major trials, but was won quite impressively by Garswood, who the trainer, Richard Fahey thought very highly of beforehand. It is worth noting that Alhebayeb, who TAWHID beat last season in the Horris Hill, could only manage 4th. But as Hot Snap has shown, improvement over the winter can be more important than 2 year old form alone, if it is of sufficiently great, and of a high quality?
So where does that leave me with regards to this race today? Well improvement that Gosden has talked of, on top of Dundonnell's impressive York win last season( on ideal fast conditions), makes him of the highest order in my book. If that is the case, then I feel today's going should not inconvenience him enough to stop him showing his class. A false run race can undo even top class horses, so for that reason it is not a race to bet on. But that is my only doubt about him winning today, but even so I think he will show he is very capable to do better next month. So, with a solid race behind him, and given fast ground and a fast pace at Newmarket on May 4th, I expect great things from him. Dawn Run be warned!
Not much to say about the rest of the card really. The 3yo 10f race earlier will further test 2yo form against would be Hot Snap's? The 6f sprint always throws up a good horse to follow, but Move In Time will put its fitness against some top class horses, which is way different to Class 2 h'cappers? It is a little more open than usual, but old favourites Hawkeyethenoo and Tiddliwinks are both capable fresh, but I like Angels Will Fall if it fulfills early promise last season, now it is a 4yo.
Have a good day ...
However, the caution comes because conditions for today's race are not ideal.
The going has been on he easy side of good but the going stick has moved slightly in the right direction, from 7.8 to 7.9 since yesterday. Ideally at Newmarket I would have liked it to have been around 8.5, as a drying day would push it close to Good to Firm by 4.05 this afternoon. My going allowance from yesterday mirrors this at 0.48sec per furlong, which is certainly on the easy side of good.
(edit) Since writing the going has changed to Good to Firm, and the going stick reads 8.5?
The next thing which is not ideal is the fact there are only 4 runners, including TORANADO, who beat him in similar circumstances last season. Add to that there is a useful stable companion there to confuse things further. HAVANA GOLD could be the one that is trained up to the moment to win this, or at least ensure the race is set up for its stable mate. But if it is being aimed at one of the other Guineas races, in Ireland France,or Germany. then it too will not want to lose its edge with a hard race here. All three need a decent race pace to bring them to full fitness for the big one in two and a half weeks time. Finally there is the Godolphin trained runner TAWHID who was nicely progressive last season, winning the Horris Hill stakes at Newbury on his final start. Given that there are only 4lbs separating the four on official figures, you might think it would be a close run thing with another dozen horses around them run at a proper racing pace? I challenge the official figures, but even so, a decisive winner here will certainly earn the 2nd favourite position it will undoubtedly be promoted to in the main race?
Tactics will play a major part, but as I said above, a 2 furlong sprint will not do much in sorting out who will come out best in the real thing, or boost their fitness levels. When Toranado won last time his jockey was pleased that his tactics worked. I am happy that they were sufficiently worried that they had to think about Dundonnell enough to apply the dance routine(slow, slow,etc) tactics in order to secure that win. I get the feeling the Hannon camp are still worried, lining up the excuse of the 3lbs weight concession, and surprisingly, the trip being too short for Toranado this season, should he get beaten today? There was no disguising that they thought he was superior to Havana Gold though. So reading between the lines, my guess is that it will be Havana Gold to lead out and try and set the race up for Toranado as they approach the final furlong. Where Tawhid fits into that is anybody's guess at this time of year, as was seen yesterday, see below.
In the Nell Gywn stakes, which is the fillies 1000 Guineas trial you had a horse officially rated 78, which in terms of class is an average for a Class 4 handicapper, and yet has improved over the winter to pop up and be a stunning winner three grades higher, and in the relatively fastest time of the day! HOT SNAP has been promoted to the new favourite of the 1000 Guineas, and trained by Frankel's trainer Henry Cecil, you can understand why? However, I would urge caution about taking short odds about her, as indeed I would about today's winner. How many horses in that field were fit and ready to make the overall pace the same as it will be on May 5th? Then, every runner will be out to win it, so to produce the same turn of foot again, as she showed yesterday will be that much harder, and the buzz factor on the big day is asking a lot for a horse only having her third start?
The second fastest race came in the 'Free Handicap' half an hour earlier. It is only 'Listed' event, so a grade down from these major trials, but was won quite impressively by Garswood, who the trainer, Richard Fahey thought very highly of beforehand. It is worth noting that Alhebayeb, who TAWHID beat last season in the Horris Hill, could only manage 4th. But as Hot Snap has shown, improvement over the winter can be more important than 2 year old form alone, if it is of sufficiently great, and of a high quality?
So where does that leave me with regards to this race today? Well improvement that Gosden has talked of, on top of Dundonnell's impressive York win last season( on ideal fast conditions), makes him of the highest order in my book. If that is the case, then I feel today's going should not inconvenience him enough to stop him showing his class. A false run race can undo even top class horses, so for that reason it is not a race to bet on. But that is my only doubt about him winning today, but even so I think he will show he is very capable to do better next month. So, with a solid race behind him, and given fast ground and a fast pace at Newmarket on May 4th, I expect great things from him. Dawn Run be warned!
Not much to say about the rest of the card really. The 3yo 10f race earlier will further test 2yo form against would be Hot Snap's? The 6f sprint always throws up a good horse to follow, but Move In Time will put its fitness against some top class horses, which is way different to Class 2 h'cappers? It is a little more open than usual, but old favourites Hawkeyethenoo and Tiddliwinks are both capable fresh, but I like Angels Will Fall if it fulfills early promise last season, now it is a 4yo.
Have a good day ...
Saturday, 13 April 2013
Doncaster 13th April
Doncaster ... AGAIN! Will this Flat season ever get started? Answer, Yes - Big time next weekend with some classic trials. In the meantime, we have a 6f sprint that is only slightly different to the one a fortnight ago?
So to begin again ...
Doncaster 3.30: 6f Class 2 handicap.
The selection EW is the same as 2 weeks ago - COLONEL MAC.
However, similar dilemmas to last time, he is drawn away from the pace of the race and principal dangers among the top class runners.
Subtle changes make up for that. This time he is drawn in the No5 stall, putting him over towards the far rail, where the winning group came last time. However, one of the likely pace setters is drawn 11, Hamza, and there should be little problem of tacking across to the main group in the early stages and get taken well into the race. The only problem is Tax Free. He is also a prominent front runner and is drawn nearer the stand side rail. If he take a select group to that rail, and that strip is favoured, not only is he a danger on top form, hold up horses on that side could be the undoing for the selection. More about those later.
The going has changed from last time too. The winner, Thunderball, will not be so well suited by this change,nor by his 6lbs rise in the weights. He is in good form though.
However, whatever rain fell yesterday will soon dry out with the warmer breeze picking up. The going stick of 8.3 suggests that it will not be far from verging on the fast side of good by 3.30 if the sun comes out?
The selection has A Mullen on board this time, but even without the apprentice allowance from last time he has a lot in hand on his best form, and should strip fitter this time. He has the bonus of being dropped another 1lb from last time. He will not mind the change in the going either. Depending on the instructions given to the jockey will decide how the race will turn out. If enough runners head for the far rail, and there are some prominent runners on his inside, then it might pay to go that way? The danger is, apart from himself, the others may not have the pace to keep up with the main group. I hope the bulk of the field sticks to the middle of the track. At least that way you are close enough come the final furlong to put up a challenge. It is no good being on the best handicapped horse in the race but having too much to do to reach the leaders.
Dangers? Several, Particularly those that came out of the Listed 6f two weeks ago. That did have a better class field, but not absolute 'top class'. Even so, they do carry a threat, despite that race running slower than the h'cap earlier.
JACK DEXTER - the winner, has gone up 7lbs. On my figures, with the increase in weight, both real and relative to the others, does not give him an outstanding chance. But he might improve for his first run? He is drawn 9, but a hold up horse close to pacesetter Hamza, which should be ideal for him. Would have preferred it softer though.
OUR JONATHAN is drawn 12, the other side of the pace setter. He represents a very positive danger having won off a higher mark than today. He will also like the better ground, and could easily turn around the form from last time on better terms with the above, even though he was only third.
HITCHENS is a stable companion to the selection, and is drawn 8. He is a hold up horse and in his day has been a classy sprinter. Not quite on the downgrade yet, but his best is probably behind him now? Usually takes a race or two to get fully wound up, but his fourth behind the two above shows he is not far away?
That group show why the main threat may come down the middle of the course, and Hamza has the class to lead right into the final furlong. With hold up horses between the 'Colonel' and and Hamza, he will get first run on the others and go head to head with Our Jonathan to the line. If I am right, he has a bit over that one as he is receiving 11lbs.
As I mentioned earlier, If TAX FREE comes to the stand's rail, the he may bring with him a whole new set of problems:
MOVE IN TIME drawn 18
THUNDERBALL drawn 20
SHROPSHIRE dawn 17
DUKE OF FIRENZE drawn 16
PRODIGALITY drawn 13
All of these need to improve on what they have shown so far, but it is not a big gap that a strip of faster ground would not make up for? The latter one would probably stick with the main group in the middle though?
The selection is still a solid EW chance if the race pans out right, but Our Jonathan represent the biggest danger.
Yes, there are other races, but I decided not to spread my time over too many race, okay?
If the Newbury Classic trial looks interesting enough I may do a blog on Friday. Otherwise Saturday next weekend.
Have a good day ...
So to begin again ...
Doncaster 3.30: 6f Class 2 handicap.
The selection EW is the same as 2 weeks ago - COLONEL MAC.
However, similar dilemmas to last time, he is drawn away from the pace of the race and principal dangers among the top class runners.
Subtle changes make up for that. This time he is drawn in the No5 stall, putting him over towards the far rail, where the winning group came last time. However, one of the likely pace setters is drawn 11, Hamza, and there should be little problem of tacking across to the main group in the early stages and get taken well into the race. The only problem is Tax Free. He is also a prominent front runner and is drawn nearer the stand side rail. If he take a select group to that rail, and that strip is favoured, not only is he a danger on top form, hold up horses on that side could be the undoing for the selection. More about those later.
The going has changed from last time too. The winner, Thunderball, will not be so well suited by this change,nor by his 6lbs rise in the weights. He is in good form though.
However, whatever rain fell yesterday will soon dry out with the warmer breeze picking up. The going stick of 8.3 suggests that it will not be far from verging on the fast side of good by 3.30 if the sun comes out?
The selection has A Mullen on board this time, but even without the apprentice allowance from last time he has a lot in hand on his best form, and should strip fitter this time. He has the bonus of being dropped another 1lb from last time. He will not mind the change in the going either. Depending on the instructions given to the jockey will decide how the race will turn out. If enough runners head for the far rail, and there are some prominent runners on his inside, then it might pay to go that way? The danger is, apart from himself, the others may not have the pace to keep up with the main group. I hope the bulk of the field sticks to the middle of the track. At least that way you are close enough come the final furlong to put up a challenge. It is no good being on the best handicapped horse in the race but having too much to do to reach the leaders.
Dangers? Several, Particularly those that came out of the Listed 6f two weeks ago. That did have a better class field, but not absolute 'top class'. Even so, they do carry a threat, despite that race running slower than the h'cap earlier.
JACK DEXTER - the winner, has gone up 7lbs. On my figures, with the increase in weight, both real and relative to the others, does not give him an outstanding chance. But he might improve for his first run? He is drawn 9, but a hold up horse close to pacesetter Hamza, which should be ideal for him. Would have preferred it softer though.
OUR JONATHAN is drawn 12, the other side of the pace setter. He represents a very positive danger having won off a higher mark than today. He will also like the better ground, and could easily turn around the form from last time on better terms with the above, even though he was only third.
HITCHENS is a stable companion to the selection, and is drawn 8. He is a hold up horse and in his day has been a classy sprinter. Not quite on the downgrade yet, but his best is probably behind him now? Usually takes a race or two to get fully wound up, but his fourth behind the two above shows he is not far away?
That group show why the main threat may come down the middle of the course, and Hamza has the class to lead right into the final furlong. With hold up horses between the 'Colonel' and and Hamza, he will get first run on the others and go head to head with Our Jonathan to the line. If I am right, he has a bit over that one as he is receiving 11lbs.
As I mentioned earlier, If TAX FREE comes to the stand's rail, the he may bring with him a whole new set of problems:
MOVE IN TIME drawn 18
THUNDERBALL drawn 20
SHROPSHIRE dawn 17
DUKE OF FIRENZE drawn 16
PRODIGALITY drawn 13
All of these need to improve on what they have shown so far, but it is not a big gap that a strip of faster ground would not make up for? The latter one would probably stick with the main group in the middle though?
The selection is still a solid EW chance if the race pans out right, but Our Jonathan represent the biggest danger.
Yes, there are other races, but I decided not to spread my time over too many race, okay?
If the Newbury Classic trial looks interesting enough I may do a blog on Friday. Otherwise Saturday next weekend.
Have a good day ...
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