Champion's Day - Ascot 2013

This will be my last blog of the season, and like the previous one, it will not have the full weight of my own rating behind it.

Ascot 1.45: 16f  Champion Stayers Group 3

ESTIMATE is hard to oppose on form. Returning as a 4 year old he has fulfilled the hopes of his trainer, and this would be his crowning glory. He will have to be at his best, but as he has improved with every run so far, makes him the one to beat.

HARRIS TWEED posted his best run last time out. Perhaps they have rekindled his interest after a spell in the wilderness. At his best, he will make whoever gets past him work very hard, if they manage it at all. Key to his running is the pace he sets. Quick enough to be comfortable for him to maintain, and still have enough to battle on when challenged. Not many get past him when it all comes together, and with a decent break from his last win might mean today is when he sees off all the challengers.

ROYAL DIAMOND disappointed in the Irish ST Leger, but J. Murtagh, Ascot, and a big race Saturday seem to be a winning habit. So riding and training this horse could be extra special if he pulls it off? I am not convinced he can beat the above pair, but may just be the best of the rest.

Ascot 2.20: 6f Champion Sprinter Group 2

MAAREK and mud go together well. Fresh from winning at Longchamp on 'Arc weekend, with an equally impressive field behind him, this should be another win. So with soft ground in his favour he is definitely the one that stands out. If this were a handicap he would not be top weight on official ratings, but the absence of the disappointing Soul, and Sole Power, he comes here in tip top form.

SLADE POWER is the only horse rated higher, and has run some cracking races against the very best. The softish ground whilst not a problem, does just favour the above more.

HOOF IT showed signs of coming back to his best and could reward each way punters by getting placed at a decent price.

Ascot 2.55: 12f Champion Fillies and Mares Group 1

IGUGU represents the South African trainer Mike De Kock and I take a chance on this being the best value in the race from a punting point of view. The trainer's horses have taken a little time to acclimatise here, but there were signs that they are coming good right now. This one's form level is as high as some of these, but he has won on her only run at this distance, and won 3 out of 4 on going softer than good. It is a strange race as there is a strong 3 year old challenge, but their level of form can also be questioned against their elders?

TALENT may prove to be the best of the younger generation, as I thought she looked a proper stayer in the Epsom Oaks. back to form last time behind the best filly around, Leading Light, and so is the justified favourite.

NYMPHEA is a tough sort and has won a Group 1 race in Germany this season. Will not go down without a battle, and certainly has each way claims.

Ascot 3.30: 8f Champion Milers Group 1

The script has changed for this race. For the past two years it has been Frankel, followed by the horse that got close to Frankel (Excellebration, 6 lengths). Winner picking has never been so easy? Unfortunately, the horse that got closest to Frankel last season FARHH(4 lengths), has defected to the next race  ...

I have never fully bought into the hype around DAWN APPROACH, so this will be a big test as he has ever faced. Even though his fellow 3 year olds may pose too many questions, the older brigade certainly will.

MAXIOS has the form to beat Dawn Approach on a tenuous line through Olympic Glory based on his 5 length slamming of that horse last time out. The soft ground is no problem, and as most of his wins have been over further, stamina will not be a problem if Leitor Mor does his customary job of setting a fast, but steady pace from the off. He is not the only one though.

SOFT FALLING RAIN on fast ground would certainly be a lot shorter odds than on the current going. There is a chance it will dry out to near good by the time of this race, and the straight course does drain particularly well.

And it is these three on form that he others have to overcome to be in with a chance of winning.

GORDON LORD BYRON would see off all challengers over shorter, but he has shown he can get the mile trip. Murtagh ridden, my guess he will play it late. If the early pace hasn't done for him, then his finishing speed will do for them.

CASPER NETSCHER looks to be hitting peak form and could run another big race, but he has always been just below the very top class, despite running his races very honestly.

ELUSIVE KATE is a bit quirky and has excellent form against top class horses. If it is a choice between her and Dawn Approach to grind out a win, I think she could do it. However, I think speed will win the day.

Of the 3 three year olds, the disappointing KINGSBARNS would be a danger if he lived up to his 2 yo promise? The O'Brien sole representative should not be dismissed for that reason alone?

I am also a huge fan of TOP NOTCH TONTO, who followed up his surprise win with another on faster ground than suits best. Big shock if he could topple these on basic form.

Conclusion: MAXIOS as the likely winner from the way the race is expected to be run.
GORDON LORD BYRON and KINGSBARNS have sound each way value.

Ascot 4.05: 10f Middle Distance Championship Group 1

Following my opening statement for the previous race it goes down to ...

CIRRUS DES AIGLES only 1.75 lengths behind Frankel last year, wins from ..

FARHH who was 4 lengths behind Frankel last year.

Is it really that simple? Well it would be if it wasn't for injuries to both horses. The former was injured in the pre-season and has only just back to showing the same sparkle that got him so close to the greatest ever. Whilst the latter has not be out since winning in the spring in a magical Frankel-free Lockinge race over a mile.

Answer is, YES! ... if both are back to the very best. Every thing else is simply playing catch-up, and that includes the Epsom Derby winner, RULER OF THE WORLD. If both falter he is the most likely to gain, but for me I'll stick to keeping it simple; 1.75 lengths beats 4 lengths.

Ascot 4.45: 7f Future Stars Apprentice H'cap Class 2

This is a minefield when trying to guess the winner. Nearly all the best apprentices are here, but very few are on good horses over this trip.

I will go for one of my favourite horses who is just coming back to his best, which is very, very good ..

BUBBLY BELLINI ridden by top Irish apprentice R P Whelan

Have a good day ....

Doncaster St. Leger - 3.50pm

Apologies to my few readers for the complete halt to my blogs. Truth is, I got distracted, got behind with my ratings, and the distraction did not leave time to write anything anyway.

Doncaster 3.50: 14f Group ! St Leger Stakes.

I said at the time, the extra distance will suit this horse, and soft ground will be a bonus. I have seen nothing since to change my mind.

Conclusion: GALILEO ROCK

I  did think Leading Light ran a good one last time, and clearly stays. But I think Galileo Rock has that bit of class about him, to be placed in two Group ! Classics short of his best distance, will be enough to see off all comers today

GOODWOO STEWARDS CUP 2013

I thought I would apply a similar approach to yesterday, and make class adjustments. alas time has restricted me to the first 16 or so in the betting.

Goodwood 3.50: 6f Class 2 Stewards Cup handicap.

In order of merit, after adjusting for weight;

HAWKEYETHENOO - In not too great form at present,, and I would guess any ease in the going from a passing shower would help, but is the only runner to get a high rating from a Group 1 race earlier in the season, and did bounce back to form to win this last year.

NINJAGO comes jointly next best from a Class 2 event. Quite consistent and 6f would appear to be his trip.

HEAVEN'S GUEST got an excellent rating from just beating yesterday's Group 1 winner, but don't take that too literally, as the other horse improved for going at a quicker pace. Still, with a big weight concession, he should be in the mix.

WHOZTHECAT is another who could be well there on current form, and his trail-blazing style is well suited to this course. Same claiming jockey that has won on him the last twice in Ireland, and is really consistent at the moment. Another bold show can be expected.

DINKUM DIAMOND  is next best from his run at Epsom, and is the sort of horse who is due a big h'cap win. Today could be his day.

Of the remainder of those I rated, I would give HOOF IT a shout, as he got a decent rating in his only run so far this season. That was a Listed contest, and he is the winner from two years ago. Improvement to come from the first run would see him go close.


Brief, but to the point. Any of the above could win, but all bar Whozthecat need to be where the pace is. He will plough a lone furrow on the stand's side.

Have a good day ...

GOODWOOD FRIDAY 2013

Or more particularly, the Group 2 5f race. I warn you know this is very much a mixed bag of abilities.

As is the weather forecast/going forecast. I have just checked the RP site; On the course details it gives good, good to soft in places, and in particular, a going stick report of 7.3 to match that description. I scroll down to the 'course correspondent' who reports ' After a dry night, the going is now good, good to firm on the round course'? Strangely that was how it finished up yesterday ...mmmn. Either he is not at the course, and did not check that there had been rain overnight while he ate his breakfast miles away ... Or the course details are a replay of the Tuesday/Wednesday card's details, or even early yesterday, which I think quickly became 'good' as soon as the sun got to work?

Either way, it is very unhelpful and very sloppy from the RP!

Goodwood 3.40: 5f Group 2 King George Stakes

Now this is a somewhat abbreviated way of separating the chance of the runners, but you will see why?

The best, on my ratings, from Class 2, and who have the most to do to win in 3 grades higher ..

SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is just 1lbs above: Moviesta and Elusivity

From Listed Grade, who still have a tough job on their hands;

MEDICEAN MAN who is 6lbs ahead of Ladies Are Forever, who in turn is only a lb ahead of one of my favourites, Borderlescott, as well as a few others further below. The latter will at least improve on his first run, and for racing here, but I wish he had stayed at the lower grade because he will find this very tough.
Love him to win or get a placed though.

From the Group 3 category it is not so clear cut, ans many have race in the two grades above them. But from my ratings I have the following order, as ratings in the higher level are not as good;

SPIRIT QUARTZ is 4lbs clear of Kingsgate Native(who does have a rating from G2 that gives him a chance), and surprisingly, Tickled Pink who is the current favourite, is a whopping 13lbs below from his last run. While Definightly is 10lbs below from a rating last season, on soft ground.

The only one horse that got a decent rating from a higher grade, Group 1 in fact, as non of the others could better their G3 ratings, although from previous seasons, horses like Masamah would be well in the mix.
So the horse with the 'classiest' rating is:
SWISS SPIRIT.

Conclusion: If the above ratings are sound, and don't allow for any massive improvers, the order should be:

1, - SWISS SPIRIT
2, - SPIRIT QUARTZ
3 -  KINGSGATE NATIVE

Of course, that is without taking the going preferences into account ...

Have a good day ...

Review of the SUSSEX stakes

I am not inspired by the Thursday card at Goodwood. The handicaps are interesting but not especially so. The 2yo Group 2 race is good, but more about the future after the race, and you should know my views on the longer distance races?

So I will take this opportunity to review how the Sussex Stakes was run, and would different tactics by Dawn Approach as the race unfolded made any difference?

You probably know that I am of the opinion that Dawn Approach has no finishing speed as such. Instead he relies on maintaining a fast pace, with help, and hope that that takes the finishing speed of those with a turn of foot.

So the first complication happened at the start, when Leitir Mor reared as the gates opened. He then raced up while the gap was still there against the rail, and his momentum shot 5 or 6 lengths beyond his stable mate. This in turn allowed Reply, the O'Brien 'pacemaker' to slot in behind Leitir, pushing Dawn Approach further back from where he ideally wanted to be.

So jockey decision: Does he try and get past Reply, or sit back at the head of the main bunch?
I think he made the right choice here, as there was no point in battling with Reply so far out?

The next decision point came, as expected, as they turned into the straight. Kevin Manning decided to push on from that point, despite the fact that Leitir Mor was still going strongly.

This is another choice that might be questioned, because he had to really roust him to get ahead of the pacemaker. Would it have helped if he delayed that push until another half furlong, and so have more in reserve for when  Toronado came speeding by? It is all conjecture as to whether that might have been the case. At the time he had Declaration Of War about to deliver his challenge, and there was a very real danger of him being boxed in behind Leitir Mor, as Reply had already started to drop away? So, even though it was a long way out, I believe it was his only real choice. He knew that DOW would very likely stay on once he got to the front, so he used his only asset, Dawn's prolonged ability to run at a fast pace. Indeed, he beat off the older horse quite comfortably. Another thing, if he delayed his move any longer the 'finishers' could have crept closer at that slower pace? He did open up about a 4 length gap after all. It really comes down to my initial statement,
If his early past pace does not weaken his rivals sufficiently, then he has now answer to horses who do have a turn of foot.

I am sure the Bulger camp will look at it and think, on a stiffer track, and the pacemaker getting off on terms, and may be a tad more balanced pace where it gradually builds up speed, so when Dawn pulls out at the 2 furlong marker he will have the opposition at full stretch and they will not get to him?

It was not hard to see that Jim Bulger was less than comfortable in the interview afterwards? I am not sure that they can be that confident that the tables will be turned next time? May be the smiling interviewer gleefully hoping for details of a rematch did not help. I can remember him catch a stern glance from the normally imperturbable Aiden O'B, when discussing Ruler Of The World's defeat. They were at the point of talking of future targets when the same Mr Pasad threw a curve ball at him....' ..and avoiding Trading Leather?'
Oooh, if looks could kill ...

My only saving grace from the race was that Leitir Mor did finish in front of Reply, despite his extra exertions at the start.

GOODWOOD Wednesday 2013

Now I am really getting racked off with the Weather, and its forecasters.
I swear when  I checked the RP site just before publishing yesterday, their course reporter was saying 'blues skies and sunny' ?
Clearly he was not at the course, because , according to C4 TV, they said it began raining at 7.0am, and was still doing so at 2.0pm!

At least today it will not make much difference.

Goodwood 3.05: 8f Group 1 SUSSEX Stakes.

Now if there were 8 runners there could have been a couple of interesting each ways. With only 7 runners, unlikely.

LEITIR MOR would have been one such bet, as this course should enable him to stay out in front a lot longer and may be just hang on to 3rd place at the death? His job is to set it up for the favourite by setting a steady but very quick pace. The O'Brien team have REPLY in there to try and upset that plan, but despite the latter being a very useful horse in his own right, in  a straight dual between the two, on this course I would take LEITIR MOR every time.

TRADE STORM is the other one I think will be raced for a place, and 3rd again, the most likely target. He will just sit out the back, hopefully relaxed, doing nothing except not getting too far adrift, and then come with a late run to pick up the pieces from those that go with the pace and have nothing left.

DECLARATION OF WAR is the O'Brien hopeful, and it will depend on how much he has to put in too early in the straight will decide whether he is 2nd or 4th. He has the best part of 10lbs to find on the favourite, but as he has a light campaign until this season, he could still be improving. Alas, his run in the Eclipse has probably damaged his chance here, as well as showing that he improved nought for the step up to 10f.?

TORANADO ran a great race last time and missed out on being the first horse to beat the favourite, after arguably being the biggest sufferer in the barging match they both got caught up in. At least in that race he did show he can be raced differently, and is a worthy 2nd favourite. Delaying his challenge to the very last moment could be the way to go here? Hughes is confident enough to do that, even if he is 4 lengths down at the furlong pole. Whether he can win or not, is another question?

DAWN APPROACH is well clear on ratings. He has a small field where his pacemaker can dictate things, and the ease in the going is not a problem either. Given his preparation going into the last race, he should be more than ready to repel all comers this time. The only possible chink is the course. He is a horse that can go a fast pace for a long way (not 12f though?), and this course does enable the speedier types to get into the race as they start to descend. I guess Leitir Mor will be trying to soften them up on the climb to the top of the hill and keep it going for as long as he can downhill.

Fascinating race to see how it unfolds, butt the winner should be: DAWN APPROACH.
I say 'should be',because he is the best horse in the race. But if Declaration Of War takes him on coming down the hill, it could just open it up for a shock winner, like Trade Storm to get the better of Toranado?
I am still of the opinion that two of the three main challengers will fade, and Leitir Mor will hang on for 3rd.

Have a good day ...

KING GEORGE &QUEEN ELIZABETH 11 STAKES - 2013

GOODWOOD - Tuesday 2013

Well, having been put away by the weather forecast on King George day at Ascot, I am not making that mistake today. In fact, at the last week end I was put away twice, given I was quoting the trainer who said Cirrus Des Aigles was back to his best, only to hear her backtracking on live tv to say he was 'nearly' back to his best. That, and the miraculously dry day they had up to race time, when the previous evening the weather map clearly showed that by 8.0am the heavy rain had already spread up to the M4, you could say I was less than hopeful. The only thing I can say is the winner was something special, but I shall look forward to the rematch with Trading Leather should they both go for the Juddmonte over 10f. A fully fit Cirrus over 10f, and with the rain having broken through at last, I think we may see a different story?

However, with just the possibility of a thunderstorm, I will not start of Glorious Goodwood with too much enthusiasm until I get the latest going forecast. If it is sunny and warm, then the course will dry out and recent fast ground form should hold up quite well. However, Goodwood's undulations do mean it is not an exact science on who will perform well on the track?

Goodwood 1.55: 10f  Class 2 Handicap;

FAST OR FREE is yet to run this season. Probably because of the prevailing fast ground. At the time of writing, it does not look like he will get is favoured conditions, so I am quite happy to pass him over at relatively short odds for an open handicap.
Current odds around 6/1

BLUE SURF has got a squeak on my ratings which he got on the downhill Epsom track. Not enough in hand to say he is a good thing, but should be bang there at the finish.
Current odds around 7/1

WHISPERING WARRIOR is in good form, but another who may have preferred it softer. It is also stepping into better company here, and with his h'cap mark increasing, he will have to show some improvement to win this.
Current odds around 9/1

CLON BRULEE is another I would give a chance to if he can get a good position from his middle draw. The course configuration means the not only have right hand turns to make, but also they switch rails along the way. With the fast downhill as they turn into the straight you need a lot of luck in running. However he has won at Ripon and Redcar, both tracks known for their undulations, and his last run was a decent effort too. The going is less of a concern as well.
Current odds around 9/1

NABUCCO has been lightly raced coming into this race, so there may be some hidden improvement. He won over the trip on the July course at Newmarket, which also has a downhill section. Certainly not one to be ruled out.

 the 9/1 mark, but may well get shorter because of stable form.

Of the remainder;

FENNELL BAY, although high in the h'cap, his stable are in flying form. he has a difficult draw to overcome, and may lose his race trying to get to the front and do his customary lead?
Current odds around 12/1

ANGEL GABRIAL is capable of running a big race if things go his way.
Current odds around 18/1
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Goodwood 2.30: 5f Group 3 Molecomb Stakes 2yo

AMBIANCE has marginally the best rating, and is of an interesting price.

Current price 6/1

SLEEPER KING did not perform up to the level expected at Ascot, this track, with the emphasis on speed may suit him better.

Current odds 12/1

REROUTE was only having her second start behind Rizeena, so improvement may come to turn the tables on Ambience.

Current odds 9/2

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Goodwood 3.05: 7f  Group 3 Lennox Stakes

ALJAMAAHEER is a deserved favourite as he consistently bangs out a similar high rating in victory or defeat. It is hard to get away from the 3yo's in this race too, and his rating is better than any other has produced to date. May be vulnerable if something really gets their act together though?

PROFESSOR looks the 2nd string for the Hannon yard, but I think he is progressing nicely.

Current odds 10/1

Of the older horses, only Caspar Netscher who is classy, but hasn't had a run this season, and Pastoral Player, who likes this course, but is getting older, look to have any chance of stopping it being a 123 for the younger brigade? They include the 2000gns 7th, Garswood, who is not even close to being favourite here, over what might be his best trip?

Time against me here, so have a good day ... ..

p.s Course report a fine sunny day

IRISH OAKS July 20 2013

I am staying with this Classic race, not because it is a top notch race, or that it is easy to find the winner. No, it is simply a Group 1 race, the last of the major Classic races, and it deserves some scrutiny.

Curr 6.15: 12f Group 1 Irish Oaks

It has to be said that there are negatives about every runner. To complicate matters further, Aiden O'Brien has three of the 8 runners, and there is a French challenger that is hard to assess.

So, in betting order;

TALENT was an impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks, and came through the field like a proper staying filly. The downside is, that was the second slowest time on the card. She came into the race with a modest OR of 96 and because of the time, did not improve on it in my book. It was also on good to soft going. Everything about today's race is going to make it a tougher challenge?

That said, she is the only Group 1 winner in the race and has the highest OR in the race, albeit a low one for a Classic winner. She has had plenty of time to recover from that race, and as long as she has not got any fitness issues she should run her race. Unfortunately, those that ran behind her that have had a run, have done nothing to advertise the form, suggesting, as the time does, it was a poor race. So the doubt remains?

Current price around 5/2

RIPOSTE is a Group 2 winner at Ascot's big meeting and ran to a rating a stone above the current favourite. In the process beat one of her rivals today. That was on fast ground and a similar course type to the Curragh. It was a big step up from being beaten in a Class 5 maiden previously, and has had a decent time to recover. Will very likely take over as favourite before the off?

However, the horse she beat looks to be the O'Brien first choice on jockey bookings? She was ridden as though she might not get the trip. She was stepping up from the 8f Irish 1000gns, and as a consequence, she pulled very hard. So it is not a formality that Riposte will confirm that form?

Current price around 5/2 - 11/4

ALIVE ALIVE OH also beat one of the O'Brien runners over 10f at Naas in a Listed race. Never raced on fast ground, or been tried over 12f, although bred to appreciate the trip. She won by 6 lengths, but her time rating suggests she has to improve quite a bit more to take a hand. The form of that race has been upheld, so not a forlorn hope.

Current price 6/1

CHICQUINTA is the French challenger who finished 2nd to a very impressive winner of the 10.5f French Derby, which naturally is a Group 1 race. Trained by the very astute Mons Royer-Dupre, who can spot a good opportunity, and has the equally astute J. Murtagh on board.

This filly has not raced on fast ground before, but did improve for the 'good' last time. Bred for the job, and if she is not troubled by the travelling could be the one they all have to beat. Well backed to do so.

Current price around 6/1, and likely to get shorter.

VENUS DE MILO is the one I find the most interesting of the three O'Brien runners. She has had only two runs to date, and won both. The latest was over 10f on fast ground where the short priced favourite was unplaced. The time does her rating no favours, but is bred to improve for the step up in trip. She has certainly finished off her races in that manner, and the form of that was helped when the 3rd went on to win next time.

She could be an O'Brien dark horse, and should not be dismissed lightly.

Current price around 15/2

JUST PRETENDING is surprisingly big price for a horse who might  just turn the form around with the second favourite RIPOSTE. If she relaxes and can run her race she will have every chance. She appeared to stay that day, although her rival might also improve again. Joseph O'B takes the ride again, and with a likely pacemaker in the race, it should be run at a true speed to allow her to come through late on?

Current price around 12/1

SCINTILLULA is the likely early pace-setter, if she follows what she did last time in a Listed race over 8f.

However, trainer J Bolger may have other ideas now she is stepping up in trip, so it might be in this one's favour to have a falsely run race?

Current price 20/1

MAGICAL DREAM  may be the one to take it on if the above does not, thus ensuring a true run race for the other two stable runners.

Current price around 33/1

Conclusion: I could be wrong again for the 3rd blog in a row if I dismiss TALENT out of hand. However, her win looks suspect on many levels, and take away much of what the visual impression created. She has to improve a lot to beat these in a true run race, and on balance, I think it may be just beyond her?

I find it hard to get away from the French runner who beat a strong Group 1 field, bar the impressive winner, who is likely as not head for the 'Arc at Longchamp. I cannot see anything of that class in this field?

1 - CHICQUITA

2 - RIPOSTE

3 - JUST PRETENDING

Have a good day ...

Newmarket JULY CUP 2013

For once I have little problem with reading this race.

Newm 3.50: 6f Group 1 July Cup

Starting with the winner;

SHEA SHEA - Forget all the stuff about this horse being better at 5f. It may be true, but he is also very very good at 6f. This is a stiff 6f. True, but his style of running is not to blast off and do it from the front is it? No he comes late and fast. Yes, there are several others that do the same, but none have got the rating I gave this horse on his last run. Therefore, it is all about the pace of the race?
Two predominantly lead horses, and Shea is drawn between the two, in stall 8. On his right, in 4, is LEADING LIGHT. In stall 12 is HAMZA. The former has the better rating, and in Group1 company, and is probably the best to tuck in behind.  Because they come down the centre of the track, there should be few problems in finding room unless they all converge towards the stand's side? Top class jockey who knows how to ride a waiting race just adds to my belief in the final outcome. He should be a 7/4 shot.
Current odds 4/1?

Of the challengers, SOLE POWER is only 3 stalls away in 11, next to the other pace horse Hamza. Now the danger here is if they do split into two distinct group and Shea's jockey decides to stay close to his narrow Ascot conquerer, they both could be left with a longer run for home, as I expect Hamza to fade first? Shea has on his left, towards the far rail  ZANETTO to tuck in behind initially, but then he will be exposed, and three horses away from the pace horse.
Whereas, on his right, HAVELOCK,  a fellow Aussie, will try and drop in. Next is GALE FORCE TEN who may not be able to force the early pace but will want to be on hand to use his extra stamina in the final furlong. so not a bad one to tuck behind. Beyond those two, KRYPTON FACTOR is in an ideal spot to get the lead from Leading Light. Likewise SHAMEXPRESS, who ran no sort of race at Ascot, but could find this more to his liking? He is the most likely to take it up from Leading Light, which will, in turn, suit SOCIETY ROCK and SLADE POWER, although the latter doe not appear quite up to this level on my figures.

So there you have it. Easier to go and join Sole Power, but the race could be over on the stand's side, and if connections read this the same way as I do, they will leave Sole Power on his own to make a late burst too late to catch the stand side group, or he has to go too early, and loses out like he did at Haydock. Not only that, Sole Power is not as good over 6f, whereas Society Rock is.

Result: First No6 - SHEA SHEA.
Second No3 - KRYPTON FACTOR
Third No5 - SHAMEXPRESS

Conclusion: Yes that looks like a shut out for home based horses, but they all have some issues.
Shea Shea good value 4/1, Krypton Factor value EW at 14/1 -16/1, Shamexpress less so at 20/1 as he still has a bit to prove?

Disappointing day yesterday, but three races produce excellent times.
In the first INDIGNANT won well and set a good time.
RIZEENA appeared not to like the going, yet despite this was only a couple of lbs off her Ascot rating, and stayed the 6f well enough. .The winner though, LUCKY KRISTALE is the real deal. Clocking the second fastest time on the day and posting the best 2yo rating this season. One to follow.
SKY LANTERN was robbed. If a jockey can use the excuse that having the whip in his correct hand is the best way to keep a horse straight .. when for over it furlong it patently was not working!!!! Then it sets a very bad precedent for future races.
HEAVEN'S GUEST clocked the best time of the day, and all horses involved should be watched in future races.

Have a good day ...

Newmatket July Festival - Thurs & Fri

This is more a reflection on Thursday's card, and a look at today's first four races.

Starting with Thursday's review:

The opening race over a 13f trip was one up for my ratings, as my top two finished 1st and 2nd. Alas the top rated was the unlucky Havana Beat. I always think that once you have got past Royal Ascot the ratings from this season start to take over. Now, with a 3 week gap, we are also seeing how the ratings from that meeting show their true class. Both of these hoses finished in races where the winner produced a good rating.

I was amused at the comments after the second race that they thought that at least Jallota upheld the standard of War Command's race, because Sir John Hawkins didn't. Well much as I like the Channel 4 presenters, on this occasion they have got it wrong. Sir J H went into the race top rated but with no confidence on my part because the Ascot race was relatively slowly run, and consequently failed to match the grade. He was however, the only runner to have run in that high level. The trouble for me in a slowly run race you do not know for sure what the bottom level is. Whereas Jallota had a better rating behind Astaire, and at 16/1 represented good value at 16/1. I did say that Berkshire's Ascot race was a real blot for trusting it to work out because of the slow time, and Master Carpenter could only finish 8th. I had no rating for the winner, but all three of the placed horse ran above their previous level, if not quite matching the grade here.

Universal ran a grand race, but again was just short of improving his mark with me, but not doubt will be raised. As he does not run in h'caps this is of little consequence.

Maputo was the star of the day. taking a longstanding course record and leaving the other in his wake. This race will produce winners from those who managed to keep going at the end of a stern test.

The 2yo race matched the grade, but it remains to be seen when she is stepped up in class that she can improve on this. But it is a sound base.
Montiridge was understandably slow in a small field, but Last Sovereign gained a couple of lbs.

Todays Friday card is more of the same.

Newm 1.40 is a tight h'cap, but I just give the edge to JUBILANTE, although the top weight SORELLA BELLA may be the value each way?

Newm 2.10 gives us a chance to see RIZEENA strut her stuff. However, at just over evens she is not good value for a bet. She ran over 5f last time, whereas this is not only 6f, but the final furlong is particularly hard.
I still expect her to win with the proviso, if she settles? But it would be nice to see her finish with her ears pricked again, and showing she truly does stay the 6f. The only dangers on ratings are those that finished behind her at Ascot.

Newm 2.40 similar comments apply, but for different reasons. If SKY LANTERN settles, even if she is out in front, she wins. Simple as that really. GIOFRA is the one that would most benefit from a 2f sprint, where ELUSIVE KATE would prefer a proper test. What PURR ALONG does may decide it?

Newm 3.15 is the last one of this review, as the others have little value in analysing. This is also a tight h'cap, but the narrow EW value goes to RIVELLINO. Rated just ahead of the likely favourite, MOVIESTA. Mind if Samantha Bell can do justice to her full claim, MARY'S DAUGHTER is not out of it, at an even bigger price?

Have a good day ...

THE ECLIPSE STAKES 6th June 2013

This year's ECLIPSE is one for the purists. It is tight on ratings, meaning all can be given a chance. If all take part, then the 3yo generation's chances will be tested against that of their elders, albeit with only one runner. Above all, it is over 10f. Away from the top level, this would be a 'specialist's distance'. Not so much with the top grade, as their class can see them through even if they rate higher at 8f or 12f.

So, on to the numbers. Victor, get ready to trim those odds?

Sandown 3.50: 10f Group 1 Eclipse Stakes.
in current betting order ...

AL KAZEEM is a much improved horse this season, and deserved to be considered to be the most likely winner on recent form. All three wins have been at this distance, and the latest at Royal Ascot confirmed he is a real Group 1 performer. His trainer though, has put a doubt in peoples's mind as to whether he can pull out another big run, this being his 4th since the end of April, over C&D, and more importantly, the least gap between each one, to this one. There is no doubt that winning at Royal Ascot takes some doing because they have to be at their best to beat others trained to be at their best. However, as he beat over half of this field in his last race, they are in much the same boat?
One excuse for the poor performance of Ruler Of The World last weekend was that he had 3 quick races, and I think it could be the case here. With the ratings being so tight, only 4lbs separating 6 of the 7 rivals is hardly worth mentioning that he is 2lbs off my top rated, given that improving horses will gain more than that in no time at all. It remains to be seen if this is to be an improved run, or one step backwards?
Current odds a shade over 2/1

DECLARATION OF WAR was an impressive winner at Royal Ascot over 8f. It was won in the style of a horse that would be going to a much higher level this season. He also has had 3 races since mid April, neatly separated at monthly intervals .. until now? This is less than 3 weeks for his biggest test of all, so similar concerns to that of the above. The step up in trip should not be a problem, and his mile speed could help should this become too tactical. Again, on ratings, he comes out a couple of lbs below the above from that Ascot race, and the race itself was just a little weaker. However, both these horses will be suited by the longer up hill finish, if they are in a position to do produce a late burst of pace. The faster ground though, may not be in his favour. The first day card at Ascot was described only as 'good', and tends to be less harsh anyway.
Current odds 4/1

THE FUGUE was behind the favourite last time, on her first start since November. Clearly did not get the run of that race, trapped on the inside until it was too late. She is my joint top rated on bare ratings, and gets the same 3lbs gender allowance she had there. Basically it comes down to whether the Sandown hill and a relatively quick 2nd race(the 'bounce' factor) even themselves out and give her a very realistic chance of tuning the tables here.
Well last season she started with 3 quick races, at 10 and 16 day intervals, and improved each time. Indeed, the 4th run was on 20 days later and managed to be second on softer ground. Her best form appears to be over 12f on fast ground. That said, her last win was over Goodwood's extended  9f, which probably adds to the frustration of the last run with things in her favour and got no proper run. She has an excellent chance of making amends here, and I will be surprised if her stamina in the final furlong does not get put to good use? Every chance of going off shorter than her price at the moment.
Current odds 4/1

MARS will find a good race one day, I am not sure this is it. The only 3yo in the field, and also comes on the back of a troubled passage in his last race. Despite that, his 3rd behind Dawn Approach does give him joint top rated, and the 7lb age allowance would put him clear. However, as that rating came against horses of his own age, the rating could be seen as less value than that of a all age Group 1? Therefore this allowance is going to be needed just to keep on even terms. He too is having a run of 4 quick races, including today, all since his 2000gns run on May 4th. Followed that by the 12f Derby where the muddling pace and barging matches along the way, which did not help his cause. I opposed him that day because his pedigree indicated a lot more speed. The drop back to 8f last time has indeed brought out his best rating to date, despite being hampered again. That was a very quick turnaround for a top 3yo to handle. If any horse is to be troubled by too many races it is surely this one? Not to mention the senior opposition, the step back up to 10f, and the stiff uphill climb all adds up to a very big ask for a young horse? He will need all his sire's toughness here.
Current odds 9/2

MUKHADRAM is a horse you have to admire in the way he runs his races. Only just caught by the current favourite last time. This was clearly his best run to date, as his first at Group 1 level. He has come a long way since his 5th in the 9f Cambridgeshire h'cap last season. He is on only his 3rd run, and he is after one of the top Group 1 prizes of the season. Despite Hanagan's brilliance at racing from the front, and a course that has had some superb 10f front runners, like TACITUS in years past, I feel the combination of strong opposition needing a good pace and a stiff finish, will prove just too much.
Current odds 8/1

PASTORIUS is the German raider that has a few if's about his chances, but is the only one of the runners not to have raced at Royal Ascot. On his final run last season he finished 4th to the one and only FRANKEL. That rating, despite being well beaten, and who was wasn't*, puts him in here joint top rated. If you look at races that have involved runners that had been placed behind the GOAT, they have invariably increased his standing by beating everything else in is absence. However, two issues might restrict this being another one. Fast ground? Unsuccessful trip to Singapore last time? I cannot think the going would have been slow out there, but the wide draw on a tight track did him no favours. His run against Frankel was also on soft-ish ground.  However, he showed a good turn of foot on his first run over the extended 10f at Longchamp in April, and has been given time to recover from his trip to the Far East. Peslier excels in these type of races and I think he will be in the shake up. just a pity there are not 8 runners?
Current odds 10/1

MBLISH is really only hopeful of a place on known form, and there is nothing to suggest he can turn around places with those he has already raced against.
Current odds 100/1

Conclusion: Take THE FUGUE and PASTORIUS against the field, but with everything in his favour THE FUGUE probably has the edge.

The answer to the question above* - CIRRUS DES AIGLES is the only horse push the mature FRANKEL in any race, and is the best antepost bet, with a run, in the King George at Ascot.

Have a good day ...

IRISH DERBY June 29 2013

I am sticking with this race because it is intriguing, and not as clear cut as the odds suggest.

Curr 6.30: 12f Group 1 Irish Derby

in betting order ...

RULER OF THE WORLD is fully entitled to be favourite, but it was a muddling race in the Epsom Derby. He has steadily improved since his debut earlier in the year, not having raced at two. Entitled to be green, duly scrambled home in a maiden, but that form has not worked out well. Next came a more impressive win at Chester, matching the Group 3 grade standard and showed a good turn of foot. For a stayer, the pace of the Derby should not have suited, but again, he put distance between himself and his rivals in the final half furlong. The question is can he do the same at proper racing pace over 12f? His breeding suggest he should be a class horse, and he has done all he can by winning every race to show that he is a class horse. Today might be the day when he gets the rating to back that up.

Current odds - 1/1(even money, but likely to go off at odds on unless a rival is seriously backed)

LIBERTARIAN was behind the above at Epsom, and would also have been handicapped by the pace of the race. He won the prep race at York by outstaying his rivals, but that was a prep for the Derby, so who was fittest on the day does cloud the value of that form. However, it produced a fair, but not great, rating. Neither improved their ratings in the Derby, although their Official ratings have gone up, albeit on the low side for the big Classic race of the season. On the face of it, there is many reasons to suggest that he can turn that form around, but this flatter track will definitely suit better, and the fast going is similar to Epsom. Stamina should not be a weakness in either horse, but his main hope here is that a true run race takes the edge off Ruler's finish, and it becomes more of a battle.

Current odds - 7/2

TRADING LEATHER may have some stamina doubts on breeding, and has taken a curious route to this race. Second behind the above at York, over 10.5f, then was used as a pacemaker (effectively) in the Irish 2000gns over 8f. That was a fast pace and only got out beaten late on by a true miler's speed. The 2nd in that race went on to frank the form at Royal Ascot, but the winner was also in that race and did not show his previous form. Trading Leather then drops down to listed class over 10f a and duly bolts up, beating one of today's favourite stable mates in the process. Money for the favourite would indicate that they know how much superior he is to the one TL beat? If this race is run at a true run pace his stamina doubts might surface, but is he does truly stay the trip he is a serious rival.

Current odds - 5/1

SUGAR BOY is probably the more straight forward to quantify his chances. Beaten into 2nd place by a stablemate of the favourite in a Group 3 race on his seasonal reappearance, and got a good rating. Then went to Sandown over 10f and won their Derby trial by a head. Not such a good rating, but skipped the peculiar nature of Epsom to come straight here. Therefore he has had a less testing journey but if it was in the hope of getting an easier option, it has failed? Stamina should not be a problem, only a question whether he is good enough. If this is a sub-standard year he may be, but I get the impression that is a hope rather a firm belief?

Current odds - 10/1

GALIEO ROCK I find the most interesting prospect here. This is a horse with abundant stamina in his pedigree, and to date, has not been able to exploit his strengths. He was 3rd behind the above at Sandown in April. Ran 3rd in the Derby when not (allowed to?) use his stamina to the full when the field was bunch up coming down the hill at Epsom. Despite that, he kept going to a very respectable 3rd place. If there was any in that race that the muddling pace did not suit it was him? Given that that there is a horse in here who will take them along at a decent pace, for once he may just get a chance to show his full potential, and to earn himself a favourite's chance in the St Leger over 14f. Certainly, if you take the tenuous form line through the 4th at Epsom, he has the beating of Sugar Boy. The flatter track, stronger pace from the outset, and his own stamina requirements, he has a great chance of being in the mix if it come down to grinding out a finish?

Current odds - 10/1

FESTIVE CHEER was surplus to requirements at Epsom, if the plan was to have him take the pace on early? With the way the race developed, unsettling Dawn Approach with a slow pace and bunching the field up to give all the Ballydoyle horses a chance, in particular Mars, the doubtful stayer, it did not work in this ones favour at all. On pedigree he has a great chance, but so far the reality shows he may not be quite up to this level? Nor can I see him being much use as a pacemaker, as the complete outsider who will run independently of all stable ties, will surely take them along at a brisk pace? So unless FC is in to slow it up when that one weakens i cannot see him being involved?

Current odds - 20/1

LITTLE WHITE CLOUD was 2nd to Leading Light over 10f, and got an okay rating. The winner went on to win a 16f race at Royal Ascot. Should have no problem stepping up in trip himself, and may bring further improvement. In that respect he is like Sugar Boy, if it is a sub-standard year he has less of a gulf to bridge on what he has done so far. Not ruled out completely, but I'm sure the stable will be overjoyed if he gets a place? 

Current odds - 33/1

CAP O'RUSHES showed a fair level of form, including his latest placed run at Royal Ascot. However, not a a level that is required here?

Current odds - 66/1+

RALSTON ROAD is the one I expect to set the pace, much as he did at Royal Ascot in Leading Light's race over 16f. Headed at the 10f marker, but kept on and finished 8th. If he could keep it going over this shorter trip to the 10f marker, then he will set the race up nicely. I just hope he takes part to do that, as there is always some doubt with the gap between the two races being so short? He has won over this trip, but in much lower grade races

Current odds - 100/1+

Conclusion:

RULER OF THE WORLD is the one they will have to beat to win.

TRADING LEATHER is marginally ahead on my ratings, but they are all on the low side.

GALILEO ROCK appeals as the best each way value, as has most to gain from a true run race, and can clearly go with the pace of this grade.

Your choice?

Yes there are good races going on all over, but the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is over 16f, and I don't like speed ratings over those trips, and I'd rather wait for the Ascot horses come out and challenge for the good races still to come.

A quick reflection on the final card at Royal Ascot. Sadly the relatively fastest race was that of the ill-fated THOMAS CHIPPENDALE. In doing so, he also recorded a career best, but that is no consolation to all involved.

Those who finished behind him though, can be followed to uphold that form. Lkewise OPINION in the other 12f race, whch enabled him to get a most improved rating, and those in that race can also be followed.

Have a good day ...

ROYAL ASCOT Saturday 2013

The final blog of what has been an intense week of quality racing.

Quick review on yesterday's ratings, although the first point I will make, the 4mm of watering, plus the early shower made the times reflect the slowest going of the week!

With that in mind, the 6f 2yo race won by KIYOSHI was the relatively slowest of the day. I have not seen the race yet, but I was expecting a whole lot more from the comments made afterwards? Needless to say, even if it was only a Group 3, her rating was way below the standard.

Best rating , and by a huge margin, goes to HILLSTAR. Clear fastest time, and him coming from a low base, all help. But that was a top performance, and the placed horses did themselves no harm at all.

Beyond those two ratings, the rest were not very inspiring, as the next three races barely improved their mark at all, and the final handicap was below it? That I will put down to the fact they may have gone off too fast in that?

SKY LANTERN could not have been more impressive in the manner of her win, and she had no control over the stop start pace it was run at. They bunched up round the home turn, but they fanned out well enough, so there were no hard luck stories in behind. As I said yesterday, this horse is blessed with tactical speed which gets her into a race, when she can show another gear.

On to today.

Ascot 2.30: 7f Listed Chesham Stakes 2yo.

I will leave this to market movers. It is a waste of time pointing out the highest rated from a lower level grade, only to find even an unraced one can pop up an exceed it. Especially over this 7f, which brings demands on stamina, as yet barely seen.
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Ascot 3.05: 12f Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes

MOUNT ATHOS is clear top rated, but will have to improve upon that to hold off the young improvers.

In fact, the remainder are very closely rated and hard to rule any out.

EKTIHAAM is the one that has attracted the early money though.
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Ascot 3.45: 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

SOCIETY ROCK is a quirky horse, but if he gets away on terms, especially here, is the one they have to beat.

GORDON LORD BYRON has yet to hit the high rating he achieved last season, but the 3rd place behind the above last time shows he is getting there.

MINCE is another who has yet to reach the dizzy highs of last season, but even that is probably just a tad below the above pair at their best.

ROSDHU QUEEN is a horse I have to give a mention to, even if she has no chance on ratings, and with all the allowances. However, she is a battler, and if any falter in the final furlong she will be there, digging in. I just feel this is a too big an ask this early in the season, and I would have rather brought her along at a more steady build up before tackling experienced colts and geldings at the very top of their game. That said, her trainer has put her here ....?

The Australian horses usually do well here, but the above on their A-game should see of any sub-Black Caviar class, and that more than doubly applies to the rest of the field.
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Ascot 4.25: 6f Class 2 Wokingham Stakes h'cap.

Too many to discus in detail. The best pace looks on the high side, but their are a couple on the far side to take them along. So I'll take a pair from each side against the field, as I know they have a few lbs in hand.

Low numbers:

POOLE HARBOUR was my early selection, and if he puts it all in he has a good chance of winning a big one. He should get a clear run on that side too.
Current odds 25/1

ANCIENT CROSS also just scrapes in at the bottom of the handicap, and despite being a 9yo, his win at York give him an excellent chance.

High side:

DUKE OF FIRENZE is another early selection. He is not as well in in as some, but is progressing at a rate of knots. He has got the plumb high draw against the stand's side rail, where the winner came from in the last yesterday. The danger today is more may come over this side and their could be some hard luck stories in behind. He is battle hardened now, so hopefully he will be okay?
Current odds 7/1 favourite

REX EMPERATOR has been backed several times and failed to deliver, but his last run over 7f gives him a great chance of making amends.
Current odds around 9/1
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Ascot 5.00: 12f Class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh h'cap

This is yet another race where the lightly raced 4yo improvers face the older, seasoned campaigners, and as I think it will be one of the former group that come out on top, I am not delving into ratings that are meaningless.
No surprise to see it is those who hit the early market movers.
STENCIVE, a 4yo who clearly will have to improve to win this, and was a beaten favourite last time out.

USTURA is also a 4yo, who won his race, but it was a modest affair. Much more to do here?

Both have been backed

CARAVAN ROLL ON is one of the seniors this one, and I have a soft spot for. Difficult to keep fit, and so is lightly race for a 5yo. C&D winner, but will have to be on top form here.
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Ascot 5.35: 21f Class 2 Queen Alexandra Stakes non-h'cap

Lucky for me I can round off early, as these distance races have little speed figure value?

This race has been won by a top staying handicapper, as well as those not making the grade in pattern races.

SHAHWARDI from France represents the higher end, and if going and trip are okay, then probably has an excellent chance.

CHILBERTA KING has also dipped the odd hoof into Class 1 races, without great success recently, and the fast ground will not suit.

They head the market, and with jumps trainer already providing one winner yesterday, COURTESY CALL
will also be popular.

MAD MOOSE will be one to watch out for, at the start at least? He may not get more than a few yards with them starting so near the stables, but, and it is a big but, if he does consent to race the young WTD could be in with a chance of bagging his first Royal ascot winner?
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Well that is me done for. Next blog will be Saturday when I can concentrate on one race.

Have a good day

ROYAL ASCOT Friday 2013

Well, on the run of  good day, bad day, today should be a good day? I hope.

However, a quick reflection on yesterday's ratings ...

Once again, the 2yo race took the honours. The opening race setting a new 2yo course record, the relative fastest time(against my standard times), but only just. In truth, with conditions the way they were, the times should have been quicker than they were.

So, NO NAY NEVER did not quite match the Grade rating, but it was an excellent rating for all of those involved in the finish.

RIPOSTE' race was next best, and improved his rating, and with a big plus. ROCA TUMU likewise, in the 3yo handicap.. Elidor was the only other to improve a rating, emphasing the point I made above. With this class of horse running, on those conditions which were faster than the day before, their race times should have been better.

On to today ...

Ascot 2.30: 6f Group 3 Albany Stakes 2yo Fillies

SANDIVA is my highest rated, but I have very few rated at all.

RED LADY is better than her figures according to her jockey, K Fallon, and whose opinion I take note of, and may represent a small ew value bet?

WEDDING RING should also be in the mix, but the favourite looks to have an outstanding chance on known form.

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Ascot 3.05:12f Group 2 King Edward Stakes 3yo

BATTLE OF MARENGO is again the only one with a serious rating, and from the Group 1 Derby. I think he was sacrificed a little in that race for the sake of 'team Ballydoyle'. He controlled the slow pace enough to bring Dawn Approach briefly to the front, and then was sent on again to make it a long run for home. He did we ll to finish where he did in the circumstances. This race is his to lose.

 MUTASHADED won his last race well enough and is the most like danger to the above.

GREATWOOD needs softer ground and I can see him being pulled out?

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Ascot 3.45: 8f Group1 Coronation Stakes 3yo

On first glance this looks a match between the two Guineas winners, but their wide draw on the round mile does throw it wide open. However, in a match between the two, I think SKY LANTERN possibly has the greater tactical speed than JUST THE JUDGE. The actual ratings are quite close, but that may not reflect the way the race ends.

The French horse, SIYENICA, has to handle the track and the quick conditions, but is a high class filly.

BIG BREAK was behind the favourite in the Irish 2000gns on his first run, and should improve.

PAVLOSK has to improve in this grade.

VIZTORIA looks to have going issues?

MAUREEN who immediately brings up a mental picture of 'the special one'(context football), but that is an Arsenal thing. However, she looked to be going somewhere in her trial run, but has been beaten in both Guineas. However, slightly more favourably drawn than her two conquerers, she could do a lot better here?

Overall, I think it will be a battle of wits between the top two, and Jamie Spencer will do his best to keep Sky Lantern on his inside. If they spend too much time sorting that out I can see an upset coming. But if Sky Lantern gets a clear run she will come out on top.

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Ascot 4.25: 10f Listed Wolferton h'cap

Of those in the top order of the betting: Three have yet to race this season; One, the favourite, is stepping up in grade; One, is coming down two grades; and four got their ratings in this grade. Adjusting for weight carried are as follows:

FATTSOTA from Class 2 Current odds 12/1

TWO FOR TWO from Class 2 Current odds 14/1

BANA WU from Group 3 Current odds 14/1

Given only 2lbs covers those three, I think the value lies in BANA WU, and a possible quick double for Hughsie? His best form, including the rating race, has been on GF conditions.

TWO FOR TWO never got into the race on Wednesday, but it is a negative?

FATTSOTA whose rating came on good to soft, and most good form leans that way, is a negative unless they do hit a shower this time?

ALBASHARAH, the favourite, is unbeaten and is probably much better than his course form shows, but he needs to be?

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Ascot 5.00: 16f Group 3 Queens Vase 3yo

I am not a fan of these longer distance races, so I will give it a miss. But for those looking for the placepot selections, I say follow the money. This is down to big improving horse, and only the stable tend to know who they are?

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Ascot 5.35: 7f Class 2 Buckingham Palace h'cap

Again, of the first half a dozen in the betting, I have three who are clear, and two of those are equal rated.

DREAM TUNE whose rating came on GS going, but next time over C&D on GF he was not beaten far, less that 3 lengths. He raced alone for much of that race, and is drawn on the edge again, but on the stand's side.
Could give jockey the top jock title too ?

CAMPANOLOGY get his rating from his latest performance, and improved upon his previous rating. That was over 8f, but his last win was over 7f. Drawn next to the above so should get a nice tow into the race. Ridden by J Murtagh, and has a very good chance if the stand's side is the place to be?

BERTIEWHITLLE got his rating when finishing just ahead of  Dream Tune over C&D on the same going as today. He is drawn on the low side, so you have both angles covered?

It is a very wide open h'cap and you need to be where the pace is, as well as good form coming into it. I only look at the first few in the betting, which may change as the race gets closer.

Have a good day ..

ROYAL ASCOT Thursday 2013

Tricky day ahead. Going changes by the hour I should not wonder?

I have to say, Gold Cup day has always been my least favourite day of the five, and that goes back to when the Saturday card was described a 'Ascot Heath' day. Peasants day to you and me. The clothing rules got relaxed, and the racing was always competitive. Of course, the fact that the fashionista's take over even more air time on this day is what really kills it. Plus that speed figures rarely matter much in these long distance stakes races, so it has a different strategy, which I am less comfortable with.

So with that, and the weather, I am not very motivated to do a in depth look at any of today's races. So be forewarned!

Before I do flick through the card, time to reflect on yesterday's races.

Pride of place goes to the feature race, and the winner, Al Kazeen, who recorded the clear fastest time of the day. He really did improve on his previous rating, largely thanks to the runner up, Mukhadram. He took them along at a pace that gave him a chance of winning, and very nearly pulled it off. Unlike Camelot's pacemaker, Windsor Castle, who did not make it to the front. He would have gone faster in an attempt to draw the finish out of the field. It highlighted what I said yesterday about Camelot. He does not have a turn of foot to finish races, but he can cruise at a very high speed. The discussion afterwards as to whether he is 'no longer any good' or was 'never that good' missed this point completely? He will still win races, indeed Group 1 races, when things go right, and his pacemaker can dominate from the start. The O'Brien team will have to avoid the cream at this level though. I also think that it is this horse's pace that he sees as "The best I have ever had". My guess is that that it could stick with the likes of So You Think on the training gallops without any great effort? Let that take nothing away from the first two home here, They are top drawer, at 10f at least. If Mukhadram can be relaxed in a race, he too could get the extra 2f of the 'Arc or King George.

Despite the above, the one for the future is Rizeena. To catch up with the flying American filly was brilliant enough, but to prick her ears on the line .. Well frankly, that is just taking the piss? She matched the high Grade 2 standard, and will clearly be the best 2yo filly around. I put her right up there with Acclamation, who did a similar thing back when she came to this meeting as a 2yo.

The quartet in the last race should also be followed up, as they put daylight between themselves and a very good field.

Alas, that is my enthusiasm burnt out ...

Ascot 2.30: 5f Group 2 Norfolk Stakes 2yo
Latest price 2/1 .. if you are quick
Only one horse has a rating of any merit.

COACH HOUSE - He won a Listed race at the Curragh last time on good to firm, having won on soft previously. Both were small field events, so this larger field, and the occasion could get to her, but he looks solid enough if he gets off to a level break. To record a good time in a small field usually indicates he has solid race pace, and he saw it out very well. He has over a stone on these on my ratings, which can only be based on known form.

When I say that IFWECAN has the next best rating, you get the picture? He is a 20/1+  shot. The unknown improver will be the only danger.

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Ascot 3.05: 12f Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes 3yo Fillies

Tricky race, as most are stepping up from 10f, which can be a positive or a negative?

ALIVE ALIVE O is my top rated, who beat her rivals silly with a smart turn of foot in a Listed race at Navan. Every likelyhood of a staying the extra two furlongs. That was on yielding, having previously won on heavy. Will appreciate any ease in the going.
Latest price 2/1

JUST PRETENDING has a bigger step up in trip, having finished 3rd in the Irish 1000gns. That form over a mile is very solid, with Gale Force Ten winning yesterday. More commendable if she is a true stayer. Today will be the acid test. Ease in the going will not bother her, so only the trip will keep her out of the frame.
Latest price  15/2

THE LARK represents proper 12f credentials having finished behind Talent in the Oaks, 12f  Epsom. Ground on the easy side that day, and made the step up from 10f on faster. The Oaks was a muddling one from a time point of view, but I felt the winner was a real stayer. So just because The Lark ran well in it, her rating is still well below Group standard, so she will need to improve again, and I suspect that any rain would help?
Non-runner
WINSILI has an equal rating to the above, from her Listed win over 10f, when beating the above comfortably. Making the gradual steps up in trip, whchi breeding suggests she will improve for, but also indicates that the faster ground she has race on so far, would be her preferred surface?
Latest price 7/2 ...well backed

HOLLOWINA is only just behind these on ratings going into the race, but I suspect that she is less likely to improve to the level of Group 2 standard.
Latest price 50/1+

ELIK will have his supporters, but from the same mark as the above, has to improve an awful lot to get into it. Shrewd trainer/jockey combo notwithstanding, I think it may be a step too far this time around. Well bred filly who is going the right way, but so far she has only shown she is good, and she will need to be very good to win this. She may well have that 'unknown' factor, we will see?
Latest price 9/1

The rest will struggle  on known form.

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Ascot 3.45: 20f Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup ....(yawn)

No, it is a good race, lots of runners, some very good ...

SADDLER'S ROCK I like because he has been here before, beaten twice, but now as a 5yo, aimed and trained specifically for this race .. It just could be 3rd time lucky?
Latest price 8/1+

EARL OF TINSDAL will need the rain, lots of it but has enough class to be a sound ew chance - Thanks to Ben Linfoot of the Sporting Life for highlighting this one!
Latest price 16/1 ... if it has rained?
RITE OF PASSAGE is getting older, and more rivals to beat this time around.
Latest price 8/1+

TIMES UP is probably better at shorter.
Latest price 12/1

SIMENON did not fare so well when upped in grade..
Latest price 7/1

The rest you have to see if they really have the stamina for this test. An upset is on the cards if one does?

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Aaargh, two races to go, let's hope they are nice and easy

Ascot 4.25: 8f Class 2 Britannia h'cap 3yo ......( Just great, a 30 runner, mid-season 3yo h'cap! Brilliant)

At this time of year horses of this age are really starting to develop into their full potential, and big gains in ratings follow ... Meaning, the ones they have are just history?   I should have ratings for these. I really should?
Ooops. Blank page ...

CAPE PERON - The current favourite. Ah yes, over a stone behind his Official Rating. Next!
Latest price 7/1 ... and easing?

MAPUTO - I like this one. Oh, only a few lbs below its OR, and from a lower grade. Next!
Latest price 8/1

LLAREGYB - Oooo, only slightly behind its OR, from a C5 h'cap. Next!
Latest price 14/1

SECRET TALENT - Not so secret. Hughie Morrison, you clever boy ... has a chance! Albeit, needs more.
Latest price 16/1

SO BELOVED - Lbs to find on OR, up a grade too. Mr Doyle, work a miracle if you can? Next!
Latest price 16/1

QUEENSBERRY RULES - Near, but not quite. Moore/Haggas combo though?
Latest price 14/1+

MARKET TOWN - Similar to above, with both trainer and jockey booking?
Latest price 16/1+

HAAFAGUINEA - Shame, a bit to find, but will do better than most if it rains?
Non runner

HOMAGE - A plus!, A plus! ... I'm so excited, I just can't wait, err whatever the next line is, I'm so excited. A good claimer on board too. From a Class 3, but it is Noseda, so that means bugger all! Clever boy, him??
Latest price 20/1 ... but being nibbled?

ROCA TUMU - You're having a laugh? A stone to find on OR. Oh, it Irish trained, that's okay then?
Latest price 25/1+

SEA SHANTY - Not quite got the hang of handicapping Mr Hannon, have you? We know he is better than he has shown, but he keeps winning and goes up in the weights all the time. Find a stone and you're in with a shout.
Latest price 20/1 .. and drifting

NEWSTEAD ABBEY and SHEBIBI are set to battle it out again, and both are just short of their OR. Given that everything else is hovering around their OR's, they just need to keep improving?
Latest prices 20/1+ & 25/1+?
I'm bored now. We are up to the 25/1+ shots so if you want a bigger price winner, tough!

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Buggar! When said two races to go I was wrong ... Let's pretend that the 5.35 doesn't count, as it is for 3yo's over 12f, and is twice the guesswork of the above. Oh just the one line then

Ascot 5.35: 12f Class 2 King George V h'cap 3yo

RED RUNWAY to give the Doyle laddie  the top jockey status going into day 4. Not too mention a big price winner here?
Latest price 20/1+
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Ascot 5.00 : 10f Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes 3yo

CHOPIN - He did not do too badly in the muddling mix up known as the 2013 Derby, and as such, this course and pace may suit better?
Latest price 11/2

REMOTE is stepping out of h'cap company, and has a bit to find.
Latest price  5/2

INDIAN CHIEF comes from the York Classic trial, a Group 2 which produced a sound platform for at least two to go on and perform well. This will be the 3rd. Clearly kept back for this, and is a worthy favourite, yet he is not .... at the moment. Watch this space!
Latest price 11/2 and drifting .. Are they mad, or just waiting/
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Well I hope you enjoy the racing as much as I have writing this blog ... On second thoughts, no, go on ...

Have a good day ...


p.s. I will update on the weather/going status around midday, if you care to scroll down this far on a second visit?

No change in the I am just adding the latest prices.

ROYAL ASCOT - Wednesday 2013

Before I begin, a quick reflection on yesterday. Dawn Approach put up the relatively fastest time, and increased his rating with me , but not by much, as it did not match his official rating. The messy nature of the race did not help. Looking at today's Jersey stakes, I cannot help wishing Dundonnell had gone for this, because he did not get the fast pace he needed, and did not settle.
With no front runners in the Kings Stand, it was left to the natural speed of Reckless Abandon to tow them along. As I feared, racing down the centre left plenty of room for him to shift to his left. Probably cost him a place, but would have needed more cover to win. There will be other days

Indeed, today is one.

Ascot 2.30: 7f Group 3 Jersey Stakes 3yo
(in betting order)

GALE FORCE TEN - No surprise to see this take over as favourite, and he is my clear top rated. I fully expect him to uphold the Irish 2000gns form, which sadly, Magician failed to do yesterday. The fast ground will be no problem, and the drop back may also improve his chance.
Current odds  9/2

GARSWOOD - This 7f trip is the same as his impressive win in the Free Handicap that was his Guineas trial. Although scoring the same rating for both, his trainer was clearly expecting more. Despite having a lot to find on my ratings, he is still clear of the remainder. Which, on paper makes it look a bit of a sub-standard Group 3? On my ratings, it is between these two.
Current odds  9/2

Even the official ratings reflect this, but there are many in this I have not ratings at all this season, but the best of the rest are;
DON'T BOTHER ME and PARLIAMENT SQUARE.
Current odds  50/1 and 25/1 respectively
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Ascot 3.05: 8f Group 2 Duke of Cambridgeshire Stakes Fillies and Mares ...
(and a possibility for the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes next year?)

DUNTLE - I have her as joint top rated with the second fav, and both are progressive. She has gone a similar way this term and will be hard to beat.
Current odds  5/2

CHIGUN - She has come a slightly different route, but the same resulting figures. Same rating, same form figures - 21. They both look the type to win this, and it is hard to separate them .. before the race that is?
Current odds  3/1

Of the remainder that I have ratings for, both DANK and THISTLE BIRD tie in with the above. However, the first two do have stronger claims from 2012 season.
Current odds  4/1 and 7/1 respectively

DANCEWITHTHEDEVIL has a long layoff to overcome, but is interesting that R.Varian has pitch her in this for a come back? Unknown quantity.
Current odds  20/1

SARKLYLA boast some solid French form, and if handling the track and going, she could be a danger to all.
Current odds  8/1
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Ascot 3.45: 10f  Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes

AL KAZEEM - She is just edging favouritism on the strength of his last run. The rating for that was okay for a small field event. However, he will have to step up again if he is to be a genuine top Group 1 performer.
There did not look anything dubious about his win over his main rival in the betting, and they renew their battle today.
Current odds  9/4

CAMELOT - Once heralded as the next great thing, but has lost a bit of image. I think he is in the So You Think type of runner. No real turn of foot, but can grind out results. He will have a pacemaker here and it will be no surprise to me if he reverses form with the above. J O'B will sit him quietly out the back and will come with a long run for home as the straighten up 2.5f out.
Current odds  5/2

MAXIOS - He could be the fly in the ointment as far as the above two are concerned, especially if the ratings of that pair remain what they were last time. This French challenger boast sound form in a progressive season, but this will be his biggest challenge. Both trip, on this stiff track, and fast going are a bit of an unknown territory, but the race might pan out to suit?
Current odds  5/1

THE FUGUE - She would have strong claims at his best from last season, which was a long one? Not raced yet this season, but has conditions to suit. Tough ask first time out though.
Current odds  5/1

SAINT BAUDOLINO - This is another coming into this after a lay off, since race at Meydan in February. Lightly raced and could be anything this season?
Current odds  10/1

Of the remainder, old timers like RED CADEAUX and SIDE GLANCE will do their best, and MUKHADRAM faces a stiffer test if adopting similar tactics to Sandown, but will be keen to take over from the pacemaker when he fades, I shouldn't wonder? Which leaves AFSARE who is also making his debut here, after a long season last year. None can be ruled completely, but they do have their own issues to deal with first.

_____________________________________________
I could spend a long time going through this field, and still not be close to finding the winner, such is the nature of trainers keeping the true ability hidden as best they can. So instead, I will run through the ones I have rated on this season's form, and hope the winner is amongst them?

Ascot 4.25: 8f Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup h'cap

PRINCE OF JOHANNE is getting on in years but is a previous winner of the race. His second in a Listed race, along with his weight here, does give him an excellent chance of repeating his earlier triumph.
Current odds  12/1

BURKE'S ROCK is my second best, and her canny trainer has kept her back after winning a Goodwood Listed contest. Has Ascot specialist, Frankie Dettori on board, and it may be a help to be drawn high.
Current odds  14/1

MORAN GRA has been pottering around in h'caps in Ireland, but the last run was run in a good time. On the same rating as the above, and receives weight from all bar one.
Current odds  22/1

SWEET LIGHTNING at the top of the h'cap will need his rider's claim to be of full value, and a heavy shower of rain would help. Class performer, and Ascot turf is more forgiving than most 'firm' grounds.
Current odds  25/1

TEA FOR TWO is just behind the last pair mentioned, on ratings, and has the in-form trainer/jockey combo to add to his credentials. High drawn.
Current odds  18/1

DON'T CALL ME and NAVAJO CHIEF are on the same rating, and are both solid Class 2 h'cappers. The former drawn low, the latter high.
Current odds  33/1 and 28/1 respectively

STIRRING BALLAD is the last of the ones I rated highly. His trainer clearly thinks he has improved recently, as I always felt his mark was pushing the limit of his ability? He is the current favourite in a very open race, and is drawn low.
Current odds  8/1

These are not the only ones that could win. Course winner EXCELLENT  GUEST is an example. Needs to improve on his 7f Victoria Cup win, but his trainer has kept him fresh of his latest mark, and at his best he will come late and fast. Current odds  16/1
There are far too many that fit into that category though.

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This is another race I am not going to spend time on with so little information.

Ascot 5.00: 5f Group 2 Queen Mary Stake 2yo fillies

BELDALE MEMORY is justified as favourite.Clear top rated, and looks very smart.
Current odds  4/1

RIZEENA is the next on my ratings, and in the betting, but has nearly a stone to find on the above
Current odds  6/1

The rest could be anything, but I have no idea how well they will run today.

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The final race today, and is so tricky I am not even going to research ratings on it.
Instead, I will rely on Mr Fallon's judgment of racing qualities, and he has always been sweet on this one.

Ascot 5.35: 8f Sandrigham Listed Fillies h'cap

NARGYS - Has only run once this season, in a Group 2, 1000gns trial behind Hot Snap. Drops down a grade here, and was very consistent last season. It is worth remembering that the 1000gns winner failed to show her form in that race, but went on to win? So the same could happen here.
Current odds  16/1

HINT OF TINT is the only other one I could also give a mention to,, and could build on his 2nd in the Group 3  race last time. Wears a hood for the first time.
Current odds  9/1

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Well that is Day 2 done and dusted ... These blogs may get shorter and shorter if they do not come up with a winner?

Have a good day ....

Note - edit changes on mistakes spotted @ 1.25pm Wednesday

ROYAL ASCOT - Tuesday 2013

More of a race by race blog today, and following the pattern throughout the week.

The weather is the unpredictable thing, and could have a big bearing on the key races. But I will edit up to 9.0am on race day to take acoount of that. The going is good at present (Monday), but showers are possible. However, if the predicted high temperatures with sunshine by midday Tuesday, then I expect the course to dry out to slightly on the fast side of good. Going stick 8.9 to 9.1 on the straight, round 8.3

ASCOT 2.30: 8f Group1 Queen Anne Stakes

ANIMAL KINGDOM is the one to beat, if he handles the track and occasion. No doubt he has been kept back with this race in mind, and is a top class performer. Odds are too short to be of any value, except for the wealthy punter that can afford a reverse? That makes the the place/possible upset more of interest.
Current price 2/1

CHIL THE KITE looks the most interesting, providing it does not dry out too much. He has a bit to find on ratings, but would not be the greatest surprise if he reversed recent form.
Current price 33/1

SOVEREIGN DEBT got closest to the absent Farhh, and although well beaten that day it is still strong form. He has run well at this track, which is a bonus.
Current price 16/1

ALJAMAAHEER just behind the above in the Lockinge, and finished well from the rear. and could be the most progressive of the four to come on from that race.
Current price 12/1

TRUMPET MAJOR has no chance the three above, unless there is a heavy downpour. He is a classy hrse in the soft.
Current price 33/1

ELUSIVE KATE has a rating from last season that puts her well in the mix. Whether she will put in this time after a big break is another question. A note from a recent gallop suggested that she was showing temperament issues, and that is not a good sign. She had a tough campaign last year and it might beginning to show. I would not be confident that she is in full heart after such a bad spring until after this race?
Current price 8/1

PENITENT won this two seasons ago, and has run some great races in between. But this term looks to have a bit to find, and would benefit from more give.
Current price 40/1

GABRIAL is the only other one that has a rating that puts him near this grade. He needs to improve, but is on an upward curve. He wears cheek pieces for the first time, and has the assistance of the inform K. Fallon on board. Not without a place chance at least.
Current price 33/1

GREGORIAN will do well to confirm placings with the above, on this very different track. A solid runner, but perhaps better in the lesser grades.
Current price 18/1

Of the remainder;
TRADE STORM has not run since Meydan. Turf form not good enough.
LIBRANNO is best at 7f
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER would be a major upset on all known form.
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ASCOT 3.05: 5f Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes

SHEA SHEA represents a really strong overseas challenge on his Meydan form. But this is Ascot. Not every horse takes to the surface, nor the minor undulations. It is also a stiff 5f, with a climb to the line almost all the way. Reasons enough to look for an upset or each way chance, as in the first race.
But having said all that, the way this horse dismissed Sole Power on his favoured fast surface puts the home contingent with something to find.
Current price 2/1

SOLE POWER has the best rating from his earlier win. Reunited with J Murtagh is a major plus, as a late thrust off a fast pace is what he needs. It did not work out for him last time, where he was behind some rivals here today. His record at Ascot is not good, and I put that down to the surface here. He likes to bounce off
really quick ground, this surface does not give him the same feel, and more so today if it remains only good.
Current price 9/1

RECKLESS ABANDON is a horse I like. Quirky but talented. He was my highest rated 2yo last season, and first time out against his elders he clocked another solid one. With improvement from that first race he is right up there with the best. The big problem as I see it, is that he is drawn away from Shea Shea, where the is a possible front runner, and they come down the middle of the track, and Reckless can often abandon a straight line? Represents the biggest danger to the favourite, but will need things to go right.
Current price 5/1

SPIRIT QUARTZ I make the next best of the 'home-based' runners. He is drawn highest of all, nearest the stand side rail, which makes quite a collection of high class horses drawn this side, but all need to be taken into the race. On the other hand, if they do come to stand side it might leave Shea Shea isolated in the middle of the track? he would get a clear run out there, whereas there are likely to be hard luck stories with the others. This horse will try and run his race whatever, and has every chance if he gets the run of the race.
Current price 16/1

SHAME EXPRESS may look a bit short on his international rating, but t is always wise to respect the Aussie runners. He will have Shea Shea for company on the far side which should be an intriguing contest in itself .. the rugby heavyweights, South Africa v Australia? How it will end we will see, but both have to handle these different conditions.
Current price 10/1

HEERAAT, and KINGSGATE NATIVE are the last of the runners with a decent rating this term, but the former has a bit to find with the latter, and that is drawn close to Shea Shea, for better or worse?

SWISS SPIRIT is only just behind those two, and is improving. Whether this race is a bit early in the season and halts that upward trend is the question.
Current price 8/1
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ASCOT 3.45: 8F Group 1 St James Palace Stakes 3yo's

DAWN APPROACH mmmn, I keep hearing how this horse would be a worthy odds-on shot without his Derby run. I am in a minority, because I base my ratings on time, that thinks he is vastly overrated, and until he proves it different, so he will remains so. His 2000 Guineas win produce a rating only 1lb better than his Coventry Stakes win a year ago ... and on my figures, never improved upon that.
Having said that, if it were soft here, he would be a banker, but only because most rivals would prefer it fast. How much it dries out during the day, as they are predicting a hot, humid day, with the possibility of thunderstorms?
The shape of the race is quit predictable if the Guineas run is anything to go by. Pacemaker Leitir Mor will take them along at a brisk pace from the off, with Dawn Approach following. If the pack, particularly the O'Brien trio, they will let George Vancouver set the pace at a more sustainable pace, irrespective of what the Bolger pair do. Being able to finish is going to be key. Dawn Approach will maintain a fast pace for 6 of the 8 furlongs, but a repeat of the Guineas run will see him slow up in the final 2f. is possible, for all the hype about the Derby distance not being a problem, he may even revert to sprinting! Those final 2f are why the overall time was relatively slow on Guineas day. Strong chance, but vulnerable. Even if Leitir Mor only goes a 'sensible' pace this horse has not the turn of foot that some of the others have?
Current price 6/4

DUNDONNELL is a horse I really like, and disappointed things did not turn out well enough for him to contend the 8f Classics. He had a better rating than the favourite as a 2yo, and although his last run was not anywhere near that, at least he showed he is on his way back. The muddling pace set by Toranado in his trial race did not suit any better than when beaten last season by him. He will get the fast pace he thrives on here. The other positive, on his second run last season, following a decent debut, he put a time that was only marginally slower than the mighty FRANKEL did on the day, comparatively for each distance against standard. If he does the same here, Dawn Approach will see a new backside disappearing in front of him in the final furlong. He does not want any rain though.
Current price 20/1

MAGICIAN also will like it fast. He has a similar winning profile to Dawn Approach in the Irish 2000gns, in that Trading Leather set a blistering pace for a long, and he went on to win well next time, and Magician swept through late, faster than anything else. Two big differences though. The overall time was, relatively, the fastest of the day. Magician did not just go faster than slow horses, he stayed on strongly. On the basis of that, it is possible that O'Brien will split his tactics, and have Magician alongside, or near Dawn Approach, and try and out speed him to the line? The big danger is that Leitir Mor's pace might be even quicker than that of Trading Leather? Whatever plan they come up with, I would say he is more than capable of matching and surpassing the favourite.
Current price 5/2

MARS will be better suited by this 8f if my Derby blog is anything to go by. The dam side of his pedigree has more speed than stamina, although he may well step up to 10f, possibly as a 4yo. Today, he needs to be closer to the favourite, but not at the expensive of his overall speed. he was lucky in the 2000gns that he did not get involved in the first 2f dash that undid so many. He just needs to be taken into the race steadily, and I see George Washington doing that job for him. He has a lot of ground to make up on ratings, but the best is yet to come. If any of the above falter, he should be the one to pick up the pieces.
Current price 11/1

TORANADO is a horse that has not run a true run race to get a decent rating in my book. This will be his chance if good enough?
Current price 4/1

GLORY AWAITS has a great chance to show that his second in the 2000gns was not a fluke. He certainly matched Dawn Approach's pace at the finish, but I am guessing things will be different here. He is another who might try and use stamina not speed, but it will not be easy.
Current price 25/1

MSHAWISH is an unknown quantity from France. Lightly raced, and seemingly not top level. Perhaps looking for kudos in being here, and place money would be very welcome? He could of course be a hidden gem?
Current price 33/1
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That takes us to halfway. the next race and the last are 2yo races, so with limited ratings to go on I will be brief on those. Rating fall into two camps; those get a decent rating better than the grade standard, and those that fail to get a decent rating in better grade races. I will highlight the best of both.

ASCOT 4.25: 6f Group 2 Coventry Stakes 3yo colts

THUNDER STRIKE is top rated, but failed to better the Listed grade.
Current price 9/1

PARBOLD bettered the Class 3 grade on his only run to date. Very speedy.
Current price 14/1

JALLOTA ran second to Parbold, and the marginally improved on his next run in a Class 3
Current price 33/1

RIVERBOAT SPRINGS was behind Thunder Strike, and further below Listed grade
Current price 10/1

STUBBS was well below Listed grade, and is only just above those who were close to Class 4 grade.
Current price 3/1

How much each will improve is guesswork, but these are nearest to Group grade, but still need to improve.
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ASCOT 5.00: 20f Class 2 h'cap The Ascot Stakes

MUBARAZA comes out on top and should run well.
Current price 9/1

TIGER CLIFF beat the above, but is now worse off. Again, every chance.
Current price 5/1

MYSTERIOUS  MAN is little behind those two, and has a handy low weight.
Current price  16/1

JUSTIFICATION is a very close behind the above on figures.
Current price 6/1

WELL SHARP and TANTALISING are the only others that have a mark near this grade on this season's form. But SURAJ has bit of class if up to it on his first run.
Current prices, respectively 10/1, 33/1, 16/1
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ASCOT 5.35: 5f Listed Windsor Castle Stakes 2yo Fillies

STEVENTON STAR is a surprising top rated, but nevertheless, exceeded the C3 grade to do so.
Current price 14/1

SLEEPER KING has twice topped the C3 grade, improving on the last one.
Current price 14/1

JUSTICE DAY has a similar rating to the above, without matching the C3 grade.
16/1

HAIKBIDIAC is just below them but failing in a Listed race
Current price 20/1

Everyone else I rated either fell well short in higher grades, or only did so so in C4 and below. Improvement is not in my capacity to predict. However, I would think from the above an upset is likely?

Remember, the going is verging on good to firm, but showers are forecast forthe area.

Have a good day