Curragh - Sunday

Apologies for not counting the number of runners yesterday, not enough for 3 places .. Shame?

Hats off to Misty For Me - one tough filly!!

Several races today that have an interest, but I shall be keen to see what the going update is - currently good to yielding, but it looked very soft yesterday and even with a warm dry day I would guess it will be tacky at the very least?

2.10 Curragh: TOUGH AS NAILS

I cannot quite bring myself to make this a confident selection because of the extra furlong in ground that will be stamina sapping. However, they will not go the pace that he and Power went last time(and he did the form no harm at Ascot), so I hope his courage and class will see off his rivals.

2.40 Curragh: SNAEFELL each way.

Fascinating handicap from top to bottom, with the likes of Roicead(won't like the going), Maarek, Thats A Fret(chance, but out of form), and Queenie Keen coming from the lower class races. The Confessor has it all to do in this company, but Mr Candy usually knows what he is doing?

Then you have The Reaper(another better on good or better), Summerinthecity (chance on best form), and Cheviot(ground okay) in the mid range.

The 3yo Glor Na Mara catches the eye too. She ran Bewitched close earlier this season, but now tackling seasoned handicappers.

However, at the top of tree you find Group class performers like Croisultan, Rock Jock, Rodrigo De Torres, and Six Of Hearts, and top handicapper Tajneed in the mix.

To me SNAEFELL stands out on all fronts. Ground, no problem. Form, no problem - not disgraced behind Hitchens and Inxile the last twice in Group races. Has won when dropped to this class before ... and with the current price 25/1!!!

3.10 Curragh: INXILE

Worthy favourite, has real class and will like the going better than main rivals.

3.50 Curragh: DUNBOYNE EXPRESS each way.

Not a lot to add from yesterday's preview. With no further withdrawals there are 8 runners. It all depends on stamina here. Only future entris are in 9f and 10f races, so the trainer was not confident at the time of entry? You could also argue that when stepped up to top level, the D E has been beaten both times. Counter that with it being of faster ground than preferred brings it back to the question of stamina. All his wins have been against a Ballydoyle favourite, perhaps he would like to keep up he habit?

Of the others I think Treasure Beach has the most progressive form and is the most likely winner.

4.30 Curragh: RATTAN each way.

I give this a good chance if Ascot has not taken too much out of him. Not a bad effort for fist time out. His stable companion, DEUTSCHLAND, who also ran at Ascot, well backed too. However, he has 4 days less to recover, and probably had the harder race.

5.00 Curragh; LUISANT each way.

Trick race, but on the ground I think she has a great chance. First time out she finished 3rd to Blue Dahlia(who runs earlier hcap(Listed equivalent) on 'soft', then on 'heavy' she ran Lolly For Dolly and The Cheka to 4l. She has the highest OR and with current price of 20/1 has every chance of a good return?

The last race looks far too tricky, with going, trip, and form, nothing comes out on all three points, so I will give that a miss.

Have a good day.

Pretty Polly and Irish Derby

It is a rare thing for me to set out a blog on a Saturday, but these two races are catching my interest. There was a bit of discussion on Timeform radio on Friday about the Derby, but not about the Pretty Polly. I popped off an email, and it got a response, whereby they talked exclusively about the first three in the betting in the Pretty Polly. In fact, similar to their analysis of the Derby, which concentrated on what was the No 1 from Ballydoyle, and how they might defeat Carlton House.

In my email I put forward two horses that never got a mention ... until their Irish counterpart came on the line. In both cases he gave a positive to my selections. I should add, they were 40.0 on Betfair at the time, but that was before the withdrawal of Snow Fairy.

I am not sorry she is not running, but disappointed she could not take up the French alternative. Although there would be no guarantee of the strong pace there, but if she goes for the Eclipse it should be okay with two pacemakers in the field. It will be a tough ask first time out, but if Workforce and So You Think assume the race is between themselves they could be in for a shock?

Saturday:

3.35 Curragh Pretty - Polly Stakes - 10f Group 1: CHRYSANTHEMUM

Now for those regular readers(he chuckles to himself) you will know I had this in my top 3 for the Epsom Oaks - see blog Oaks preview - but did not expect her to run as this was a more practical alternative, as she had her first run of the season only 19 days before. Not only do I see that as the right choice, she now has the added bonus of her favoured soft ground.

Had the ground been suitable for Snow Fairy, then I would have accepted that this selection would probably only have 3rd place to aim for, but as I am confident she will finish in front of Misty For Me, the EW was still a good thing.

Aoife Alainn is having her first run, but may have been flattered by the subsequent run of the runner up, Antare, who is clearly better this season than she was going in to that race? However, the soft ground will suit.

The soft ground will do Midday no favours, even if he is 'better than ever'.

Misty For Me will handle the ground, but just look at her program getting to this race; a hard race at Newmarket, followed by a comfortable win at the Curragh, but 19 days later a hard race at Epsom where her stamina gave out. Not ideal for a filly taking on a top class older horses for the first time?

On my ratings Chrysanthemum has about 10lbs to find to finish in front of Misty For Me. Not only will the step up in trip bring improvement, you also have a fitter horse than last time, and the added bonus of suitable ground. For a horse that has done nothing but improve on every run I think she has every chance of overturning the stats for 3yo's winning this race.

(Sunday)

3.50 Curragh - Irish Derby -12f Group 1: DUNBOYNE EXPRESS

There is an element of doubt over the trip for this colt, but there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, and he does like the soft. However, the biggest positive for me, as in the race above, is that he did not race at Epsom. Whilst, many horses do come on here and do okay, for almost all of these you can see that the Epsom Derby was a hard race, and they did not win.

Carlton House put in a big effort which petered out close home.

Memphis Tennessee made the stop start running and that was not good enough.

Native Khan was behind, may not have stayed, and had a hard race at Newmarket before that. May not run because of the ground, which will not do Seville and favours either.

Sevill, seemingly did not handle the track, or the way the race was run. The fact remains, he has yet to put up a decent performance in his 3yo career.

Treasure Beach is the only one that comes out one that comes out of the race with progressive form, and not taken to the limits in doing so.

Roderick O'Connor comes on from disappointing in France after winning the Irish 2000gns, in which my selection was in arrears. That was over 11f in soft, what chance over 12f in soft?? He also looks like being the front runner for the stable. He is unlikely to get an easy lead this time, as the others will hope he will bring stamina into question regards regards Carlton House.

That leaves it to Treasure Beach to do battle with Dunboyne Express, and I favour the fresher horse.

Love to have spent more time on this, but Saturday duties call.

I think both are cracking EW selections, and have a very good chance of winning.

have a good day ...

ASCOT - Friday

Rain on rain ... that will shake the form about, and my ratings unfortunately. I am beginning to look forward to Sunday already.

No point in spending time analysing any particular race, or indeed trying to work out what will handle testing conditions best. So ....

Ascot 2.30: TEOLANE

Top-rated on the RP list, and the trainer knows how to win here.

SWEET CHILLI is my top, but as with most, on different surface.

SAJWAH could improve the Pyman's theory(not a typo, not the horse, but the theory) ... that the sire gets winners at Ascot.

Ascot 3.05: NATHANIEL

This may handle the ground better than most, which is a plus.

MIJHAAR will be popular, but this is a big step up in class.

WORLD DOMINATION has already tripped up when raised in class. However, that was a muddling race in a very slow time. If he handles conditions he could be a big threat.

Ascot 3.45: TOGETHER

I would so love this horse to win for his sheer consistent level of running, and has a major chance given his best rating came last time out. Course should suit if it comes to a battle.

CLAIOMH SOLAIS was behind the above and was the lowest rated horse involved in the finish, by 10lbs+, so it may be a mistake to take that form too literally? It has improved, but it just kept on after making the running, not threatening to win.

THEYSKIN'S THEORY is a bigger danger because she is most likely to handle conditions, as well as being a top 2yo who has won well this season.

The French pair deserve a mention too, as they should handle the soft.

Ascot 4.25: WAYDOWNSOUTH

Top-rated from his last run behind Viscount Nelson. If the latter was a reliable guide he would have a chance ... Alas, he isn't, and he is a top handicapper who tried his luck in a Listed event. Combining the two here, so could bring a shock result from a low weight?

GREEN DESTINY, BEACH FIRE, and RIGHT STEP also have claims from the bottom of this handicap, as indeed does the top-weight FORTE DEI MARMI -(EDIT: non-runner)

Very tricky race under changing conditions. A lucky pin might be useful though?

Ascot 5.00: NAMIBIAN

Has a chance, but it is a very tricky race if REGENT STREET fails to perform. The latter has top Group form with Recital and yesterday's winner, Banipire, who he beat the time before.

Ascot 5.30: FREE FOR ALL

A good winner on fast ground at Lingfield is where he gets top billing, but this could not be more different.

So many others that have a chance on best form, and some on these conditions. But then there is the draw factor, which I have got consistently wrong all week, so I am not entering an alternative ...stick with the pin!

Have a good day...

ASCOT - Thursday

Somewhat shorter look at the Gold Cup as the weather could throw a big spanner in the works? In fact the whole day may be a bookies benefit!

Ascot 3.45:(in bettinng order)

FAME AND GLORY - Has the class, but probably not the stamina.

DUNCAN - Has speed over 16f and below, but the extra 4f will stretch this front runner?

HOLBERG - Another not tried aver this trip, looks a bit one-paced against true stayers?

MANIGHAR - Has to reverse form with the above, stay the extra 4f, but will appreciate rain.

BRIGANTIN - In form over 16f, this is a stiffer track than Longchamp?

Having dismissed the first 5 in the betting, here are the ones I consider having a chance at decent odds. In race card order, as it is not easy to split them at this distance?

BLUE BAJAN - Clear winner over 16f at Sandown, similar stiff track. Was still keeping on behind Overturn at Chester over the extended 18f, a race where the winner broke the course record. Age not a barrier at this distance.

Current odds (Betfair) 16/1

KASBAH BLISS - Well beaten in this on good to firm going, but later form on softer gives this 9yo every chance, especially if the weather turns nasty. Finished off last season 'staying on' behind Gentoo at this trip. Beat that horse over shorter early this year, and just ahead of BRIGANTIN last time over 16f.

Current odds (Betfair) 21/1

TASTAHIL - Another well beaten in this last year. However his last two runs could give him a great chance this time. Winner over 16f at Newmarket on good to soft on final start last year. Ran Overturn closest of all at Chester, on faster ground than ideal ahead of BLUE BAJAN. Clearly trained with this race in mind, and looks like getting the ground of choice. This is not Chester, but has got reasonable form here over shorter.

Current odds (Betfair) 22/1

Conclusion: If it came up really soft I would favour KASBAH BLISS.

Ascot 2.30: EVERYDAY DAVE

Clearly not a choice on ratings, but this American challenger has won twice on softish ground, and their 2yo's are usually pretty smart. PYMAN'S THEORY is best of the rest.

Ascot 3.05: BANIMPIRE

This is clear on the rating behind Misty For Me, and has gone on to win well after.

Ascot 4.25: COMMON TOUCH

Improving with every race, but has got to contend with an extra furlong at a stiffer track? Real chance of an upset here. CROWN COUNSEL and CHILWORTH LAD have decent ratings, but an upset is on the cards?

Ascot 5.00: LAAJOOJ

Only just top-rated, but comes here in good form. Always looks to me that he could do with 'filling out'? TAZAHUM is next best and could pose a real threat to all. SLIM SHADEY represents the 2000gns form and has a chance against these of a lower grade? It has got to recover from hi Derby run.

Ascot 5.35: BROWN PANTHER

Twice a winner at the trip and is the one to beat.

Not very enthusiastic about today because of the uncertainty over the weather ... it will rain, but how much? It does not make the 'Fancy 5' any easier either, as some jammy git 'in the know' will get a 33/1 shot come good ... Hey ho

Have a good day ...

ASCOT - Wednesday

Today I will take the second race on the card for an in-depth look, which is the Windsor Forest Stakes, Group 2 for Fillies and Mares. 8f

Ascot 3.05:

(in betting order)

SAJJHAA: She had Music Show behind her when 2nd to Midday last time, and she should come on for that run. That was over 10f. Previously beat Aspect Of Love in a Group 3 race in Italy over 8f, which concluded her 2010 campaign. That gained revenge on that filly from the run before, when she was 2nd and I'm A Dreamer in 3rd. Both of these races over today's trip of 8f. On that basis you would say she is a worthy favourite.

The nagging doubt has to be the going. She has had two poor runs, one in Snow Fairy's Oaks, where she did not stay, and the other on good to firm going.

SETA: She opened her season with a smart Listed win at Goodwood over 8f, beating Anna Salai. Probably got the run of the race on a course where it is a speedy run to the line. This different, although she did win a Listed 8f event at Sandown last season, where she had Chachamaidee behind. Both these wins were on fast going.

I'M A DREAMER: From winning a couple of Class 4 races early last season, then got beaten when stepped up to Listed level. Tried again in a Listed handicap where she finished close up behind Sajjhaa, and you might have thought that was her ceiling.

Not a bit of it! Her debut over 9f in a Group 3 at Newmarket she absolutely blitzed a smart field, which included Sea of Heartbreak(who ran the smart Timepiece close on Monday) 2nd, with Chachamaidee and Field Day further back. She has clearly improved, big time!

MUSIC SHOW: She had a very good season last year, including a Group 1 success over Spacious. Beaten in both the English and Irish 2000gns, although very close up in the latter, and rounding off with a close up 4th in the Sun Chariot Stakes, against her elders.

At first glance you could say she is not the same horse in her two runs so far this season? However, the first was against the colts, and the second was over 10f, which probably stretched her stamina too far? More importantly, she has yet to run on her favoured fast ground.

LOLLY FOR DOLLY: In previous blogs I have made the point that this horse has two different levels of running. On soft or heavy going she would hold her own in Group 1 company, on fast ground she barely gets a rating for Listed class. Ascot fast ground is a bit more forgiving, but even so, she was beaten 5l in a listed handicap here, behind Timepiece. Without a cloudburst suddenly appearing, she will struggle in this.

ANNA SALAI: She was favourite for the race won by Seta, and on a stiffer track it is hard to see why the two are so far apart in the betting? She was just ahead of Music Show in the Irish 2000gns, but well back behind her at this meeting last year, which concluded her season.

It is obvious that much was expected of her first time out, despite the long lay off? Will surely improve for the run, and unless she has an'Ascot thing', she will be better suited by this course.

DEVER DREAM: Trying 8f for the first time here, this is a hard track to step up in trip. Finished behind Perfect Tribute over 7f at Lingfield, a race run in a quick time, and although her run did not peter out through lack of stamina, she would have to step up to be involved in this. If the extra furlong adds to any improvement then she is no forlorn hope. The question is will it?

CHACHAMAIDEE: Likeable horse, but does seem to find even well contested Listed races just beyond her. Beaten 7l in the Group 3 race won by I'm A Dreamer, went on to win a Class 3 over 7f, sort of makes my point?

JACQUELINE QUEST: Stable companion to the above. Disqualified from winning the 1000gns, and never really looked like getting anywhere near that level of form since? Ran well enough at the meeting last year, finishing just ahead of Music Show.

Started out in a Class 3 at Leicester in what should have been a confidence booster, instead got slammed by the heavily pregnant Saddlers Bend ... where do you go from there? Not straight into a Group 2 I would have thought?

FIRST CITY: Well behind Seta first time out, but a much improved next time. Close 2nd in a Group 3 at Epsom over 9f, which certainly gives him a better chance than the odds suggest. Good runs at Epsom and Goodwood might suggest that Ascot is not her track, but three runs here she has always done okay, without actually winning. However the best form has been on 'good' or slower.

FIELD DAY: Comfortably beat Chachamaidee over course and distance last season. Followed that with a 2nd in a Group 3 at Deauville. Probably ran better than finishing position in a Group 1 at Longchamp rounded off last season. Unfortunately two run this season have not so good. Dropping back to a trip twice successful at last season, so there could be a case for improvement.

SHAMANDAR: Not sure to appreciate 8f on breeding, but did stay on behind Hawkeyethenoo over 7f here, which was her first run since October 2009. Sure to improve with a 5 week break, but this is a stiff ask.

Won a Listed race here as a 2yo, so might have gone onto better things as a 3yo. As it is, starts this season in a Class 2 handicap, so it is difficult to work out what her astute trainer might be planning for her? Foolish to dismiss out of hand.

FONTLY: Close up 3rd to Law of the Range(who won again on Saturday) over course and distance on first run. That was a handicap, not so good when stepped up to Listed class next time. In any other Listed race she might struggle to not finish last. But with strong course form, it might just give some hope to her supporters.

Conclusion: This is a tight race to call. Official rating range from 112(Music Show) down to 99(Fontley), so as a Group 2 it is pretty weak, with the majority falling around Listed class marks. It gives hope to those improving, and those stepping down from Group 1 level, which is why it is tricky to analyse. Fortunately, my time ratings will give a clearer picture?

( These ratings adjusted from the class of race obtained)

MUSIC SHOW - 130

SAJJHAA - 123

I'M A DREAMER -120

CHACHAMAIDE -120

SETA -114

Therefore MUSIC SHOW is to improve for the better going and more suitable .

Because of the going I would favour I'M A DREAMER to be the main danger.

As a possible big price ew, SHAMANDAR to improve beyond its current rating ... Why else would Haggis risk ruining a good handicap mark by running in this??

On to the other races:

Ascot 2.30: CODEMASTER

Ascot 3.45: SO YOU THINK - not on ratings but on hype ..errr, sorry, HOPE ... he's in my TTF!

Ascot 4.25: BRONZE PRINCE -I expect a gamble afoot, and there are not many well rated horses drawn high. That was the place to be yesterday, and providing they haven't done any watering 'adjustments', it may be the same today. In saying that, there will be a large group go to the far rail, as a saver, SOORAH is the one to beat drawn low.

Ascot 5.00: FIRE LILY - again, the draw swings it away from VOCATIONAL

Ascot 5.35: WINTER'S NIGHT- but BLESSED BIATA is close on last season's best.

Have a good day ...

ASCOT - Tuesday.

For those new to reading my intermittent blogs, I am not the greatest at making selections in a hurry. However, in races I analyse closely, the results are pretty good. I have a 75% winning ratio on the four UK and Ireland classics run to date(and my best ew came good in the French Derby).

So I shall skip over much of the splendid racing today and just concentrate on the St Jame's Palace Stakes.

3.45 Ascot:

( in betting order)

FRANKEL: Repeating what I wrote before the 2000gns, the only horse to beat Frankel is Frankel himself ... However, his tactics of blazing off doing his own thing will not come as a surprise to his opponents, and nor, if we believe what has been said, will Frankel change his style in any way. Somehow I find the latter hard to believe 100%. If he is to win better races further down the road he has got to even out the fractions better. If you go 11.5secs per furlong for the first 4f, but then slow to 15secs for the last 2f, then other very good horses will simply swamp him for speed ... if they are close enough??? Today the opposing riders will have a ready made pace setter behind Frankel to keep the gap down to 10 or 12 lengths with 3f to go ... Well you do the maths ... 1 sec = 5.5 lengths ... the field closing at 2secs faster than Frankel is finishing for the final 2f??? It is not a forgone conclusion. Certainly not at 1/3!

EXCELBRATION: Easy winner of the German 2000gns, after finishing 4l second to an under-performing Frankel in the guineas prep race. Frankel aside, he beat a 94 rated Shropshire by 6l, and that did nothing to add to that form next time. It is difficult to make a strong case that the German race was little more than listed form. The 2 runners that have raced since, both well beaten admittedly, but cannot have improved much. Point Blank was 2nd behind a French horse who was previously well beaten in an apprentice race, so as Class 3 races go, pretty poor. The other runner is our 'own' Casual Glimpse(beaten 17l) went on to finish last behind Hooray(beaten 12l), and that was well beaten by Frankel previously.

Clearly this horse is better than rubbish, but even without Frankel, these are not rubbish, so finishing 2nd is not a given either.

DREAM AHEAD: If you ignore three things, then this represents the biggest threat to Frankel. Oozes class, good cruising speed, will like the going, and has the next Official Rating to Frankel ...

But...

He has not run yet as a 3yo - Has he trained on?

Without a prep run - This is a tough ask first time out?

He got thrashed by Frankel over 7f on his last run - Will he stay a fast 8f?

Ignore those 3 question marks and there could be an upset?

WOOTTON BASSETT: Had a difficult run last time, but not beaten far despite going off too fast to get across from a bad draw. If he sets a steady pace behind Frankel he is probably the biggest threat to Frankel. Not necessarily for himself to win, but to keep the rest of the field in touch.

Not a forlorn hope by any means. He races the way Frankel SHOULD(note to Tom Queally), that is quickening up closer to home which leaves the opposition less time to respond. The distance is no problem and has been waiting for any ease in the going. On the pick of his 2yo form he could be a big danger if Frankel burns out. His French 2000gns form has not been advertised as being one of the stronger renewals of that race, so it will be down to how much he has come on for the race

DUBAWI GOLD: He has had a couple of tough races this season. Tough to close on Frankel in the Guineas, and keep Native Khan at bay. The latter did the form no harm in the Derby either. He then had a go at Roderick O'Connor in Ireland, again staying on well. This stiff Ascot 8f could be just what he needs. It just depends on whether the other races have taken their toll, as well as whether he is up there with higher rated. Again, a Frankel burnout leaves the door wide open for a staying on finisher. Not out of it.

GRAND PRIX BOSS: Mmmmm ... dangerous to dismiss a top Japanese runner. No way of rating his form chance, but a top 2yo being aimed at this race, probably with other European races in mind to enhance its stud value, has got to be taken seriously. I mean SERIOUSLY!!

They may have been hoping that our dry spring would have continued a little longer, but 8.9 down the middle of the track is hardly more than the easy side of good, even by Ascot standards(which are different - 10.1 was good to firm here, at Bath that was rock hard firm earlier this year?), and with a warm, dry, day in prospect, I would think and stickiness will have gone come 3.45pm.

Not the going that will beat him, but the straight track will be a shock?

ZOFFANY: The last of the serious challengers. Did well first time out over 7f, but 8f should not be a problem on breeding. The big negative is that he did not perform well on his last visit here. Ascot has that effect on some horses, but given the benefit of the doubt that it was a one off thing, he is a serious player if everything falls into place.

NEEBRAS: Not really up to this level on form, and it is difficult to see him pick up a place either as most of the field will be doing that, but with a stronger chance of sneaking a win.

REROUTED: If he is in their as pacemaker to Frankel, I think they have picked the wrong horse? He couldn't keep up with him for 2 furlongs last time, so even if he is rousted along to maximum effect he will probably only manage a furlong this time. His best effort to help Frankel would be to trip the rest of the field up as he disappears backwards!

If running on his own merits, then similar comments apply as to the above. Best bet for last place?

Conclusion: FRANKEL has it to lose, But also has it to win spectacularly.

Ideally, steadied until halfway, put in three 11secs furlongs and coast home by 12 lengths.

Repeat the Guineas trick and he will be lucky to scramble home by more than a length, worse, lose it! The bookies are not daft in offering money back if he wins by more than 4l? Just look at previous offers. They are expecting a repeat of the 2000gns, only with better horses in behind.

I will leave you to make your own mind up on the remainder. I have just highlighted the strengths and weaknesses. Personally I am an idealist ... ???

On the rest of the card:

Ascot 2.30: GOLDIKOVA - Best bet of the day at odds against.

Ascot 3.05: STAR WITNESS(probably) - Aussie sprinters have a great record here

Question marks against - Kingsate Native; will he give his running?

Question marks against - Sole Power; did not run well here last time, and the going?

Question marks against - Overdose; is he as good as he was?

Question marks against - Astrophysical Jet; not convincing form last time?

Question marks against - Bridgtown; unknown quantity, needs to handle the occasion?

Question marks against - Swiss Diva; tough ask first time out?

On the other hand;

PROHIBIT is running well.

SWEET SANETTE is a Japanese runner, folly to ignore.

HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN 3yo from the American Wesley Ward yard, and they have previous.

However, my best ew for the race is: MAR ADENTO (each way)

The stiff 5f on drying ground will suit ideally(see earlier Chantilly blog for more details). Comparative odds with Prohibit are unbelievable, as there has been only nostrils between them on their last 2 runnings. Strong pace guaranteed. No draw bias as the fastest ground is down the middle. Pace on either wing with Rose Blossom low and Overdose high. Just needs luck in running?

Ascot 4.25: POWER - Clear top-rated, but a race notorious for springing a surprise?

Ascot 5.00: VEILED - Again, not straightforward regards ratings, but weight and deputy Ahern combination look good?

Ascot 5.35: FREDERICK ENGELS - Much closer rated in this, but he may have come good at the right time?

Have a good day ...

Controversial, moi?

Three things I have to say here;

1, These are my thoughts put out on my blog ... if you do not agree with anything, fine.

Just don't get your hopes up that I will enter into a discussion with any comments left, because I am too busy.

2, I am only speculating on the future events. I have no inside information. I may well be proved wrong, I often am.

3, My observations will not change what happens, so do not blame me if you take it as fact, before the event.

Obeservation 1 - So You Think, is he a tad over-hyped? If you believe the stable promotion then he will be a sight to see on Wednesday.

I take the view that on his two runs so far he has not proved he is the same horse he was in Australia. Both race were run in very slow finishing times to make a mockery of any form. For a horse rated 126, too be generous, he has not had to be at his best. It is difficult to analyse the races in any clear way. He pulls away from the field with ease, yet the time is slow. If the others went off very quick then that might explain why the fade at the finish ... but as he has kept up the gallop the finishing time should be at least reasonable, if not damn quick?

If they went slow, how come they had no pace at the finish?

Come Wednesday he will find he will have to complete the race in a fast time, then we will see just how good he is. I want him to be good, he is in my Ten To Follow!

Moving on, but linked. I am not sure how many read a story on the RP site a week or so ago, about the dilemma that faces Coolmore with so many good horses chasing the same targets for reasons of their stud value. The article concluded that So You Think would be kept away from the other stars, leaving it the top 10f races; York International, Newmarket Champion stakes, etc.

This got me thinking about other horses who have a lot to lose if the miss out on their Group 1 targets, and how 'convenient' it would be if they were unable to run again?

Take last year as an example. Workforce would never have won the Arc if Harbinger had been fit. However, Harbinger retires with the King George demolition fresh in the memory, leaving Workforce free to pick up the Arc. I could have predicted something like that before it happened, although probably in reverse, with Workforce retiring with his record breaking Derby fresh in the mind. It is not the first time this has happened. A few years ago there was the big build up with Dubai Millennium meeting his strongest rival. it never happened?

If any of you are naive enough to think a little white lie about a horse's injury that is potentially worth millions, then think on - the difference between a beaten horse and an unbeaten one can make an enormous difference in their stud fees. That is where the money for these big owners make their profit. The racing is a necessary by-product.

Here is my list for this season's casualties;(odds reflecting their %age of running again after their next race)

5/4 WORKFORCE - Reason; unlikely to win the Arc as both the French and the Irish will be very strong there. Is avoiding So You think in favour of the Pretty Polly over 10f ...where does he go from there, win or lose?

5/1 So You Think - Reason - If he wins well on Wednesday, presumably it will be York next. The King George is awash with potential stallions making their claim. Await The Dawn, St Nicholas Abbey, Recital, Cape Blanco, Master of Hounds, and that is just from Ballydoyle. Reliable Man from from France, not to mention Rewilding and Snow Fairy. Some from the O'Brien lot will have to go another route, and that means the aforementioned 10f races. So my guess would be to put this one on hold, at the very least, until the others have had there chance.

10/1 CARLTON HOUSE - Reason - "Unlucky not to win the Derby" might be his best impression to leave? If he steps back into the minefield of the 10f races he will meet some tough opposition from the older brigade, and the same story if he has a crack at Group 1's over 12f. If he sticks to 3yo races it might open up a bigger weakness and be devalued even more?

There will be some not mentioned here that could be put in a similar category, but the three above have the most to lose at the moment. Of course, if they do lose their next races, they may have to run again ... unless they detect a heart murmur ...

Finally, how this for an outrageous suggestion: Wayne Rooney to be sold before the start of the next football season? - Reason; they paid him trillions of dosh to get him to sign a new contract, because without him they would not win the league. That done, why would they continue to pay that kind of money per week, when they can get someone for half the wages, who will score goals through the whole season, won't get himself banned before important games, nor argue the toss with the manager .... You do recall Ferguson tell him to stay upfield, and when Rooney argued, it was easy to lip-read Ferguson's reply "I'm the manager, just do it!!"

Ferguson is quite ruthless when he is crossed. Mind, I think it was the plan to ditch him the moment he signed the contract. I bet the stupid boy even had a release clause written in to the contract .. that will work both ways?

Clearly nothing will happen until they get their replacement, probably one of these targets Man City are after, just to give Fergie something else to smile about?

Oh, don't think you'll get rich having a bet now ....

What odds would you have thought about right for his exit? 100/1, 200/1

... sorry when I checked, 25/1?????

Thank you for reading, enjoy you day?

The calm of CHANTILLY ...

I do not get time to do a blog on a Saturday, and I know when I do a hasty blog the results are bare what I forecast!

With no flat racing in the UK or Ireland, this Chantilly card holds plenty of interest. Although two things may turn things on their head; 1, - My ratings are what the best a horse has achieved this season, i.e. the fastest it has run. Therefore, the tactical nature that can happen in French races can make a mockery of the form book - Not that they are alone there ... take a look at our Oaks winner Dancing Rain. I give that a rating in the 80's it was so slow. That is Class 4 h'cap level! Anyway, that is one thing to bear in mind; The other is the weather. At the time of writing the heavy storm clouds appear to have missed Paris, so if it remain 'good' going, all is well. If it has gone soft, look elsewhere.

Chantilly 1.20 - 12f Group 1 : JEHANNEDARC.

This is an all French affair, most of whom have form with each other. They are stepping up tu the full 12f so it will be a question of who it suits the best. I select the above because stamina is not an issue on pedigree, but also because she finished well behind Goldikova, who ran a fast race over 11f on the same card as Por Moi had his Derby trial.

Nick Mordin wrote a piece suggesting Goldiva was 2l per mile(on all his 5 sectional markers) better than Pour Moi ... should they happen to meet in the 'Arc'. Boy does he like to waffle. It is quite obvious that if you compare the two finishing times, Goldikova ran the extra 0.5f in a little over 4secs. Impressive? Yes, but if you move both times up to 12f, 'Arc' distance, then you are talking about a 2sec difference(139.something, against 141.something), which is about 1.5 lengths. To compare an improving 3yo against a brilliant mare as Goldikova is high praise indeed? A lot can change between now and October??

That was a digression, but I think you may see why I think, that given a true run race, JEHANNEDARC has an excellent chance. Current Betfair price 7.8 ...

Chantilly 2.08 - 10.5f, Group 1(French 'Derby'): RODERICK O'CONNOR

I have him 2lbs clear of Casamento, but more importantly, from this season's rating. Add to that that the latter may have had a problem since the Guineas, he looks to be the best of the 'our' contingent. Stamina should not be a problem, but the tactics might. I cannot see Ryan Moore doing a 'Joseph O'Brien' in this race because of the extra distance?

Of the French ones, the TIN HORSE looks to have a great chance after winning their 2000gns in style. Lupe De Vega did the double last year, and he will be a big threat to ROC?

However, an outstanding EW shot has to be BUBBLE CHIC. He finished 2nd to Pour Moi, and bar that one, had the rest beaten, and would have finished in the RP standard time on soft ground. Had Vadamar behind, and he ran well enough to uphold the form, taking out the exceptional Por Moi. BUBBLE CHIC has been consistent without getting the breaks. However, I think the last run showed a big improvement, and the good going may bring out more.

Current Betfair price 18.0(from 21/1 last night?)

Chantilly 2.50 - 8f Group 2(fillies): PERFECT TRIBUTE

I think Clive Cox may be hoping this will be a tactical affair, why else would you try a filly out over 8f when she has been outstanding over 6f. Certainly has the class for this, but the home contingent look pretty strong to me. I make ESPERITA the biggest danger. she has got closest to Golden Lilac last time in a Group 1. That one would be one of their top 3yo fillies. MIXED INTENTION(fav) got closer the time before in a Group 3, and there are a couple of others who the French rate highly. So you can see that this Cox runner will have it to do in a true run race?

ESPIRITA's current Betfair price 6.4

Chantilly 3.25 - 12f, Group 2: POET

Now this one would like a cloudburst over this part of Paris. Excellent race last time, which gives a clear margin over ALLIED POWERS, and he had his form boosted by the run of St Nicholas Abbey. If it stays good the gap between them will close, and probably swing in the latter's favour. They should be better than the Fabre/Barzalona combination of LEY HUNTER. The return of BEHKABAD(fav) adds class to the race. The 'Arc' 4th behind Workforce, and 3rd to Dangerous Midge in America puts him rightly at the head of the market. However, he may be vulnerable first time out, and he too, would prefer it softer.

With the the going as stated, I would say ALLIED POWERS has a good EW chance.

Current Betfair price 16.5

Chantilly 4.00 - 5f, Group 2: PROHIBIT

I have this clear of INXILE and TOTAL GALLERY, and if the low draw is the place to be, then he has an excellent chance here. Has HAMISH MCGONAGALL drawn 3, INXILE drawn 1, both on his inside(PROHIBIT drawn 4), so pace should not be a problem. It could be nicely set up for his strong finishing burst. That is providing the French don't have their own race on the other side with SPLIT TROIS, who was a nostril behind INXILE last time, and old favourite

MARCHAND D'OR(who was taken out of that race). However, the bigger danger may come from another strong finisher, MAR ADENTO(drawn 6), they are the pair I would take to win, what will be, the 'bob of heads'. Current Betfair prices 8.0 and 11.5 respectively.

Well it is amazing what you can write when you do not fully understand what is going on ... just read Nick Mordin's piece in the 'Weekender'??

Have a good day.

Epsom -Oaks apart

Epsom 1.40: ANTARA

Has 6lbs over TIMEPIECE ... providing she turns up in the same condition as last season's C/D success, which was also a first time out performance. Given this spring has been particularly dry there is no guarantee that will be the case.

Epsom 2.10: HIGHLAND KNIGHT

However, that rating comes from his last place behind Dick Turpin. Not to be dismissed out of hand, even though it was about 20lbs better than his norm! Has claims, and jockey/stable combination doing well.

Under 'normal' ratings I have SPACE STATION just clear of a host of others. It is worth noting that SOWAYLM, who has no chance on ratings, is badly drawn, but does well fresh. Its best performance last season was 2nd to No Hubris at Sandown. Very slow time, so poor rating. If they have solved whatever kept him off the course for most of the season, he could be the EW of the day ... Just what Frankie needs to know it is HIS day, a win from the impossible?

Epsom 2.45: MIDDAY

She has 4lbs in hand over St NICHOLAS ABBEY, and then INDIAN DAYS who does well in small fields. However, with DANDINO in the mix, and second rated from a lower grade, this will be no ordinary tactical affair. If there is a weakness in the top two, he will make sure it is found out.

It should be between the top two, and unless St Nick is back up to his 2yo best, then MIDDAY should win okay.

Epsom 3.25: TRES CORONAS

Stable in cracking form. Sound run last time ...but ... this is chock full of possibilities. However, it does have a low draw if it can hold its place.

SAND SKIER is next rated, but needs to show a bit more sparkle than of late, but is in the right stable to do just that. RIGHT STEP, BEAUMONTS PARTY, and ORIENTAL SCOT also in the mix. Very tricky race!

Epsom 4.05: BLUE BUNTING

She ticks the boxes for me. MISTY FOR ME will be a very strong challenger, and they should pull away from the rest.

Epsom 4.40: HOORAY:

Ran a gallant race in the 1000gns. The pace she set probably brought the downfall of a good few against that wind .... this should be a walk in the park for her.

Epsom 5.25: CITY LEGEND

I think he had a tough race against Common Touch and his last race came too soon. This is no better either, only 4 days later ... going to the well to often methinks?

Next rated is FITYAAN who fits the bill as a Barry Hills progressive sort, and should be good enough.

Have a good day.

p.s. I await the outcome at the High Court before releasing the Derby Blog. It does seem very petty when they have an excellent replacement in Johnny Murtagh. Perhaps the Turkish gentleman is making a point, whereas he will create a massive resentment among the backers of Recital, not to mention Coolmore in general? Welcome to the world of racing! Jockeys switch mounts all the time, it is their livelihood. It may not be honourable all of the time, but most just get on with it. This is just another case of bad publicity on Flat racing's big day. If Fallon wins I hope they tell the Turkish whatever to take his horses and sling his hook ... grrrrr!

Derby review of preview ...

This was what I concluded in the preview:

Summary:

1st - POUR MOI - (I have just edited my spelling mistake ..throughout)

2nd - RECITAL

3rd - SEVILLE

4th - TREASURE BEACH

All subject to the 'With a run'

Well all of the above run, so has anything changed? On the whole, not really. The inclusion of VADAMAR who finished behind POUR MOI last time is noteworthy, The absence of Casamento, Roderic O'Connor, and Nathaniel come as no surprise.

Reviewing them in betting order:

CARLTON HOUSE: Winning the Dante did nothing to enhance it ratings, but it did show that he has speed over 4f. I have less doubts about him staying the 12f than some. Take a close look at his pedigree, and you will see that most of dams who were paired with Street Cry, their sires were an influence for speed. resulting in winners around the 7f-9f mark. However, when Danehill was the dam-sire the picture changes, with wins up to 16f. Danehill, like Bustino, can give a pedigree a much needed boost in the staying pedigree. Bustino is Carlton House's dam-sire, so there is every chance that he may be blessed with speed and stamina. Yet to prove that on the racecourse though.

POUR MOI: I have no rating for this one, he stepped into the number one slot by default. The ratings are so low with everything else, it seemed logical to take a close look at a Group 2 winner, in a fast time, and winning it well. I have reviewed that tape(of his last run at St Cloud) several times now, and it still looks impressive each time. The overall time was quick, it was a sound gallop throughout, and yet Pour Moi came from last to first over the final 2f with a smart turn of foot. To me, he looks the type that will suit Epsom, well proportioned and balanced. He has since done a spin on the track, and finished it off at speed. Straight as a die, no hint of leaning towards the rails. Stamina no problem. Draw no problem, given he only needs to be in mid division until they hit the home turn. Perfect?

Not quite. There was a hint that he did not take one of the early sharp turns at St Cloud all that well, and Clare Balding thought he did not come down the hill at Epsom all that well, albeit at non racing pace. Everything else makes him the one to beat, including the ownership decision to bring him over to challenge their other horses?

RECITAL: Doubts about this ones stamina may seem strange for a horse who won a Group 1 race over 10f, as a 2yo, in the 'heavy', by 5l?? His sire Montjeu is not the problem, it is the dam's side where stamina looks in short supply. Mind, a lot of that is the result of the dam-sire, Kendor being paired mares who's sires were not a stamina influence. Three generations back you can find some, but is that relevant today? The mare herself was an 18yo when mated to produce Recital, which I found more worrying?

That is the negative side. The positive comes from Keiren Fallon, whose opinion I value more than all the pundits put together, because of his experience and he rode the horse. When he was in the commentary box with John Francome and Jim McGrath and they started to discuss the Derby, Keiren said of Recital, 'he's the best they[Ballydoyle] have got'. To which the others said 'Really!!" The look on Keiren's face when he realised he might have said something he shouldn't have was obvious. In everything he has said about this horse, tells you this is a serious contender. In the race at Leopardstown he only cocked his head when he was in front, not during the race, just the bit when he thought he had done enough and had time to think about what was annoying him? He will be played very late this time.

SEVILLE: Highest 2yo rating, but well down on that at Chester in the race that did not suit. The stable have a problem here, because if they run a pacemaker to test the stamina of the field, they may also undo Recital too? It could be that this one may lack the tactical speed to get into a position to use his stamina? I think he will edge further down my list.

NATIVE KHAN: Whatever doubts about Recital regards stamina, this one has them doubled. They share the same dam-sire Kendor, but without the more stamina influence of Montjeu, because Azamour has a bias towards the 10f range. That said, he should run his race, even if he does not last to the line.

OCEAN WAR: If there is to be an upset, I suppose this is the most likely, but it would take a massive improvement oin his ratings thus far.

VADAMAR: This has very few doubts regards stamina. On the face of it, he looks to have little chance of reversing the form with Por Moi, but I took note of his progress in that race also. He started his run before Pour Moi, but had to weave through the traffic a bit, a factor that will certainly be useful at Epsom. He made similar ground up until about 1f out, when Por Moi swept by on the outside. The connections of Vadamar are hoping the extra distance will bring the two closer together. I think they will also hope that the going is no worse than good, as most of his runs have been on the soft side.

The revised order

1st - POUR MOI

2nd - RECITAL ... assuming the Appeal Court throws out this spiteful claim?

3rd - VADAMAR

4th - CARLTON HOUSE

It could be any 3 from 4, but if there is a clear cut winner, I expect it to be POUR MOI.

Have a good day

Oaks; The final preview ...

Here is my summary of my earlier preview:

Summary: Difficult to be sure at this stage, and I may seek an amendment after the 48 hour declarations!

1st - BLUE BUNTING

2nd - HAVANT

3rd - CHRYSANTHEMUM

4th - WONDER OF WONDERS

The following to upset the top order:

KHAWLAH with a run. MISTY FOR ME if she stays. SHOW RAINBOW if she is a phenomenom.

Now we have the final declarations, and presumably, the runners barring mishaps?

Not surprising I lose Chrysanthemum out of my top 3, and with Khawlah defecting to the French Oaks(although I have yet to see the entries for that)?, and Show Rainbow sticking to sprinting.

Which leaves only MISTY FOR ME to be put into the mix. On pure class she will beat most of these, even if she does not stay the full 12f. The Newmarket 1000gns is fine as a stepping stone to Oaks success because of the time gap. The Irish equivalent looks more like an afterthought?

There is an awful lot of crap written about the O'Brien horses improving massively on their first run. To even suggest that Aiden O'Brien sent Misty For Me 17 lengths short of condition over her stable companion Together for the more valuable, and more prestigious race, is just laughable.

Personally I think the very strong winds made conditions to run a normal race very tough indeed.

Two horses who come out of it with great credit are Frankel and Hooray. Both kept on despite setting a strong pace, the latter to less extent as she probably did not stay the trip? However, I will be amazed if she does not win on the same card tomorrow?

Those that tried to go with the pace, or pulled hard, paid the price and were eased down when their chances were gone. As with most of these top class horses, it will be a long season and jockeys would have been fully aware of this?

Misty For Me may well have been a bit slow in coming to hand, but not to the extent of 17 lengths behind her less fancied stable companion. But had she run into the position that the admirable Together did, she may well have by-passed the Irish 1000gns in favour of a proper tilt at the Oaks. In which case she would be the at the top of the betting order? Instead, she has another run which should bring her to peak condition now.

So where do I place her in this final line up:

1st - BLUE BUNTING: For reasons fully explained in the earlier preview, in short; she ran in the 1000gns as a prep for this. It was her first run so she will improve for that. She is bred to stay, so he will improve for that. Winning the Guineas was a bonus, and almost irrelevant, but a bonus. The rating is not great, but give her 8lbs improvement for the run, and at least the same again for the step up in trip and that puts her in the mid 120's. That figure is my speculation, but not unreasonable one, given it was clearly not expected to win the Guineas. Breeding alone suggests it will be better over further, and that is backed up by the finish on the climb to the line. So a 14lbs+ improvement is by no means out of the question? If there is a possible chink it is Tattenham Corner ... Will she handle the downhill? It will not be on the very fast ground they had at Newmarket, and it is a question many have to answer. The smaller field should enable her to get into a good position to use her speed up the straight.

I will be surprised if she does not progress beyond this as the season goes on.

2nd - MISTY FOR ME: For the reasons explained above. Namely, I believe Plan A was to win the 1000gns if possible, then be cherry ripe for this. Plan A scuppered by the nature of the race. On to Plan B - Go to the Curragh, stripping fitter, and ready to win. That achieved, assess how she is. If she appears to thrive, rather than needing a break(it is a long season, remember) ... Back to Plan A.

She tops my ratings, but two things stop her from being my selection; less improvement to come from her last because of the shorter time frame; doubts over the step up in trip. When these two have pulled clear, I think she will lose out on both these counts.

3rd - HAVANT: Needs to handle the occasion and settle in the race, but given she pulled hard in that Newmarket race, she kept going well with her tank empty and against the wind. Trip should not be a problem. If she has had no problems by the time they leave the stalls, then the number three berth is there for the taking as she is way better than the rest.

4th - WONDER OF WONDERS: If she won her last race despite the slow early pace I will have to revise my opinion. But as it stands, she has too much ground to make up on those above, and may be lucky to hold off Zain Al Boldan for 4th.

Nothing is written in stone. Horses can, and do, improve spectacularly. I am just assessing what we know so far. I am not even adding betting comments, you make your own mind up on that. I will just enjoy the race and hope my best horse wins.

Have a good day.